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I can't believe how stupid Freddie Gonzalez is


CBAreject

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Top of the 5th inning down 2-0 to Arizona. First two batters reach base. Julio Teheran has thrown 83 pitches so far but it's his turn at-bat. Freddie knows that Teheran's night is done pitching. What does he do here? Pinch hit, obviously? Nope. Freddie leaves Teheran in to BUNT. Yes, folks, BUNT.

Now, I know "by the bookers" would say "you gotta get em over", but let me explain that it is almost never statistically correct to bunt. The only situation in which it usually makes sense is when the batter has almost no chance of reaching (such as when a pitcher is at-bat) and a runner is on base. Otherwise, you are giving away outs, and the most basic sabremetric concept in baseball is you want to avoid making outs. It's also not a given that bunting will even work as it's intended as often the batter will strike out, pop the bunt up, bunt too hard and have the lead runner cut down, get doubled off, or get in a 2-strike hole and have to swing away down in the count. Some would say "but Teheran is a pitcher", but understand that when the decision had been made to take Teheran out of the game, he was no longer obligated to take his at-bat. In fact, it made no sense for him to hit. Still others will say here, "but if you're gonna bunt anyway, why not let the pitcher bunt?" Well, it's a common misconception that pitchers are generally good bunters. It's true that they are awful hitters, but they're not particularly good bunters either. Position players are usually better bunters since they have better bat control in general and see more pitches from the batter's perspective. Further, even if bunting were a good strategy (it isn't), and even if Teheran were a good bunter (he isn't), it wouldn't make sense to bunt down 2-0 on the road.

So, we have that Teheran was to be taken out, but he was left in to bunt in a situation where bunting made no sense, and even if it did, he shouldn't have been the one to bunt. The outcome: the lead runner was cut-down, and it probably should've been a double play.

Let me also say that I believe the Braves over the last 2 years have chewed through more baserunners than any team in baseball. They just blow baserunners at an incredible clip: caught stealings, double plays, running into outs, failing to score with bases loaded nobody out. It's maddening. And in the time it has taken me to write this, 2 baserunners made outs at 3rd base in the same inning of a game in which we were down 1 run. Of those, the 2nd out was the 3rd out of the inning. Just sickening.

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The Braves lost b/c of base running in the 6th inning. The Angels LF through out both Chipper and Uggla with perfect laser beams to 3rd base.

Both base runners would have been safe if the throw was anything less then perfect.

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The Braves lost b/c of base running in the 6th inning. The Angels LF through out both Chipper and Uggla with perfect laser beams to 3rd base.

Both base runners would have been safe if the throw was anything less then perfect.

Worst baserunning I've seen for a whole game in my 25 years of watching baseball. But make no mistake, Fredi Gonzalez has no mental aptitude. He may be well-liked by his players, and that likely counts for more than mental aptitude in that position, but he just cannot think. Cox frustrated me, but after 40 games of Fredi, I see how much Cox did well.

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I can see why he did that; I actually prefer getting runners in scoring position with less than 2 outs. And bunting is the way to go. If I have it my way, I would have my player bunt the lead off guy who reach bases every time if they're in the bottom of the order. It cuts down on the double play possibility (and generate scoring opportunities). The difference in this game is I would go with a bunting specialist since Tehran is finished for the day.

Didn't see this game but it seems the game was lost 'cause our closer couldn't close. Kimbrel's walking too many people to my likings.

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I can see why he did that; I actually prefer getting runners in scoring position with less than 2 outs.

That is because you ignore baseball statistics. There is such a thing as a systematic way to evaluate baseball decision making. If you want to learn how to evaluate such a decision, I would be glad to teach. If you'd rather go on hunches and druthers, then join the club of Fredi Gonzalez. Trouble is, you're going to make the wrong decision an awful lot, and over the course of 162 games, that will cost you a couple W's. So when you've missed the playoffs by a game, you can sit at home on your hunches.

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That is because you ignore baseball statistics. There is such a thing as a systematic way to evaluate baseball decision making. If you want to learn how to evaluate such a decision, I would be glad to teach. If you'd rather go on hunches and druthers, then join the club of Fredi Gonzalez. Trouble is, you're going to make the wrong decision an awful lot, and over the course of 162 games, that will cost you a couple W's. So when you've missed the playoffs by a game, you can sit at home on your hunches.

Well, the decision is not a hunch; it's base on the personnel on the team, I would think it's best to play small ball on this team to generate enough runs support for the pitching staff. And I like to see this statistics (if there's such a thing) of teams successfully getting a run in when bunting in a situation with no outs and a lead runner on.

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