Stat-du-Jour: Deficit Hawks

[lethalweapon3]

I was tinkering with the “Biggest Leads” data on NBA.com for the Hawks, just comparing this season’s games (54 so far) with last year’s 82. “Biggest Leads” is not to be confused with margins of victory/loss, it’s just the furthest in either direction the team or its opponents stretch the lead. Looking at the data and the impacts on wins and losses, the findings are a mixed bag but mostly positive. So far:

*They’re playing more competitively at home than they did last year. The average “largest lead” for the Hawks at Philips is currently 12.9 (11.9 in 2010-11). The average hole they’ve had to dig out from under (“largest deficit”) at The Highlight Factory this year is 10.4 (13.1 last season).

*Last season, the Hawks dug themselves into bigger holes, on average, at home (13.1) compared to away games (10.8 ). Thus far, that phenomenon has flipped this season. Their average “largest deficit” is 10.4 at home and 11.5 on the road.

*All games (home and away) put together, the average “largest lead” (11.8 ) is about the same as last year (11.6) while the mean “largest deficit” is 11.0 (11.9 last year).

*This season, Atlanta has yet to lose a game at home where they’ve been down by less than 10 points (14-0; last year 18-2), or any games where they’ve had the lead themselves by 10 points or more (12-0; last year 18-5).

*The Hawks have almost as many Comeback Wins from 10+ points down (7), as they had under last year’s 82-game season (8 ). Their four road Comeback Wins from 10+ points down is double last season’s tally. To date, their largest comeback win at home this season eliminated an 18-point deficit (Minnesota), while their biggest comeback win was their last road win in Washington, erasing a 16-point deficit. In 2010-11, Atlanta’s biggest home-game comeback win was against Chicago (19 points), and they came back from 16 down for their largest comeback road victory against the Clippers.

*The four Losses with Blown Leads of 10+ points in 2011-12 have all been on the road, equal to the number of blown road games last year. As noted already, they have no such losses at home yet (they had five last season). This season, the largest blown-leads leading to losses at home was eight (each of the last three home losses, to Golden State, Boston, and Chicago). The Bulls also erased a 19-point deficit to defeat the Hawks in Chicago. Last year’s worst blown-lead in a home loss was 22 points against Stephen Jackson and the buzzer-beating Bobcats, while the worst on the road was at Houston (just 14 points).

*The Hawks have an equivalent number of wire-to-wire victories (five games never losing the lead) to last year, and only two wire-to-wire losses (never holding the lead) compared to six last year.

*Under adverse situations on the road, based on winning percentage, the Hawks have played better -- when their maximum lead is less than 10 points (3-11, versus 3-17 last year), and when falling behind by 10 or more points (4-12, versus 2-17 last year).

*Based on winning percentage, the Hawks have been less capable of coming out on top in advantageous situations on the road. They’re 10-3 when keeping their opponents’ largest lead under 10 points (18-4 last year), and they’re 11-4 in games where they get ahead by 10 or more points (17-4 last year).

*The Hawks have been more likely to fall behind significantly this season, but have been more proficient in scrambling back to win… as long as they keep the deficit under 20 points. They have fallen behind by 15+ points 21 times this season (5-16) and 26 times last year (4-22) but have already pulled out more comeback victories. Atlanta has gotten down by 20+ points ten times already this year through 54 games (0-10, including 5 home losses) compared to 13 times over 82 games last season (0-13, including 8 losses at home).

*The Hawks have been less likely to get substantial leads this season. There were 16 instances where Atlanta had leads of 15+ points (15-1), compared to 26 times last season (25-1). The Hawks obtained leads of 20+ points eight times so far this year (8-0), and on 14 occasions in 2010-11 (13-1).

I have neither the time (nor the stomach) to compare Atlanta’s lead/deficit record with other teams, unless someone knows a better game-log source featuring maximum lead/deficits, so I don’t have to troll each game summary, but I would be curious to see how their records match up with other Eastern playoff contenders.

2011-2012 HAWKS (through 54 games):

POINT DIFFERENTIALS -

Avg. Max Deficit (Season): 11.0

Avg. Max. Lead (Season): 11.8

Avg. Max. Home Deficit: 10.4

Avg. Max. Home Lead: 12.9

Avg. Max. Road Deficit: 11.5

Avg. Max. Road Lead: 10.8

WIN/LOSS RECORDS -

Deficits <Ten: 27 games (24-3, 88.9%); 14-0 (100.0%) at Home; 10-3 (76.9%) on Road

Deficits >=Ten: 27 games (7-20, 25.9%); 3-8 (27.3%) at Home; 4-12 (25.0%) on Road

Deficits>=Fifteen: 21 games (5-16, 23.8%)

Deficits>=Twenty: 10 games (0-10, 0.0%)

Leads<Ten: 27 games (8-19, 29.6%); 5-8 (38.5%) at Home; 3-11 (21.4%) on Road

Leads>=Ten: 27 games (23-4, 85.2%); 12-0 (100.0%) at Home; 11-4 (73.3%) on Road

Leads>=Fifteen: 16 games (15-1, 93.8%)

Leads>=Twenty: 8 games (8-0, 100.0%)

2010-2011 HAWKS (82 games):

POINT DIFFERENTIALS -

Avg. Max Deficit (Season): 11.9

Avg. Max. Lead (Season): 11.6

Avg. Max. Home Deficit: 13.1

Avg. Max. Home Lead: 11.9

Avg. Max. Road Deficit: 10.8

Avg. Max. Road Lead: 11.3

WIN/LOSS RECORDS -

Deficits <Ten: 42 games (36-6, 85.7%); 18-2 (90.0%) at Home; 18-4 (81.8%) on Road

Deficits >=Ten: 40 games (8-32, 20.0%); 6-15 (28.6%) at Home; 2-17 (10.5%) on Road

Deficits>=Fifteen: 26 games (4-22, 15.4%)

Deficits>=Twenty: 13 games (0-13, 0.0%)

Leads<Ten: 38 games (9-29, 23.7%); 6-12 (33.3%) at Home; 3-17 (15.0%) on Road

Leads>=Ten: 44 games (35-9, 79.5%); 18-5 (78.3%) at Home; 17-4 (81.0%) on Road

Leads>=Fifteen: 26 games (25-1, 96.2%)

Leads>=Twenty: 14 games (13-1, 92.9%)

~lw3

[Admin]

Very interesting stuff, although I'm not quite sure what to make of our team as it seems we've done a better job of not getting blown out as much but it also seems from your stats that we gotten behind by big numbers a lot more. I guess the real difference is that we're making the game closer in the end instead of allowing the blowout to get even worse? Maybe a sign of a better bench?

Perhaps someone brighter than I can explain what the bold part below means?

*This season, Atlanta has yet to lose a game at home where they’ve been down by less than 10 points (14-0; last year 18-2), or any games where they’ve had the lead themselves by 10 points or more (12-0; last year 18-5).

[ATLSmith]

Awesome. I was thinking the other day why, to me, the Hawks are more fun to watch the season. It just felt like they had less blow-out games this year. Games they did loose were a lot closer and they fought tooth and nail try and get the win regardless of the score. Last season it felt like there were so many games where they would just gave up after being behind (not sure if true, just felt like it).

[atlbraves93]

Perhaps someone brighter than I can explain what the bold part below means?

I think it is supposed to mean that the Hawks haven't lost any home games where their opponent's biggest lead was 10 points or less. They left the bold part out, I'm guessing. It is worded badly - a team has to be down by less than 10 points at some point in all games (when it is 0-0, you are down by less than 10 points; the Hawks are 31-23 in these games )

[lethalweapon3]

Very interesting stuff, although I'm not quite sure what to make of our team as it seems we've done a better job of not getting blown out as much but it also seems from your stats that we gotten behind by big numbers a lot more. I guess the real difference is that we're making the game closer in the end instead of allowing the blowout to get even worse? Maybe a sign of a better bench?

Perhaps someone brighter than I can explain what the bold part below means?

Perhaps someone brighter than I can explain what the bold part below means?

*This season, Atlanta has yet to lose a game at home where they’ve been down by less than 10 points (14-0; last year 18-2), or any games where they’ve had the lead themselves by 10 points or more (12-0; last year 18-5).

At the risk of further befuddling, it's probably not some super-extraordinary stat (i.e., something unique to the Hawks). "They're undefeated IF..." can come across as some kind of a Rorschach test.

From one positive perspective, the Hawks are consistently winning home games under the LD regime... so long as they keep opponents' leads reasonably close (32-2, 22-2, combining those last two seasons at Philips when the Hawks' foes get ahead by no more than 9 points... not even counting their wire-to-wire victories when opponents never get a lead CORRECTION BELOW, IN RESPONSE TO atlbraves93). Having no problem coming back when behind by small margins allows them to sustain home records and overall records that are (likely) above-par compared the rest of the league.

The contrarian view would say it's not happening enough, certainly not enough to push the Hawks into the upper pantheon when there's championship-contention dialogue around the league. There were 11 times this year, 21 times last year, that they allowed visitors to stretch the lead to the point where they find themselves scrambling at some stage of the game. Sometimes it's early, sometimes it's one of those bad third quarters, sometimes it's when the game gets away from them in crunch time. That's close to half of all home games, and partially explains the queasy feeling many Hawks fans have when the hometown heroes too often fail to put up much of a competitive fight. Yes, they're doing a better job of bouncing back in some of these games -- but for a team known to suffer from consumer-confidence issues, should there ever really be a time when you're on your home floor and down 16 to the Cavaliers, 15 to the pre-Monta Bucks, or 18 to the Timberwolves?

~lw3

Edited April 3, 2012 by lethalweapon3

[lethalweapon3]

I think it is supposed to mean that the Hawks haven't lost any home games where their opponent's biggest lead was 10 points or less. They left the bold part out, I'm guessing. It is worded badly - a team has to be down by less than 10 points at some point in all games (when it is 0-0, you are down by less than 10 points; the Hawks are 31-23 in these games )

Almost exactly right, with the exception that "less than 10" meant opponents' biggest leads were some number between 0 and 9.

Correcting my last response, as you allude to, games where opponents' never even get a lead (the "wire-to-wire" wins) ARE counted in that 14-0 figure. Subtracting the wire-to-wire wins, the Hawks are 11-0 this year, 16-2 last year when opponents' biggest leads are in single-digits. As it turns out, the "scrambling to win close games at home" phenomenon is not significantly better than last year, but it's noteworthy that they haven't lost one of those games yet this season. [/jinx]

~lw3

Edited April 3, 2012 by lethalweapon3

[lethalweapon3]

Correcting (in bold) to discount those "wire-to-wire" wins and losses.

*This season, Atlanta has yet to lose a game at home where they’ve been down by no more than single digits (11-0; last year 16-2), or any games where they’ve had the lead themselves by 10 points or more (12-0; last year 18-5).

*Under adverse situations on the road, based on winning percentage, the Hawks have played better -- when their maximum lead is in single digits (3-9, versus 3-13 last year), and when falling behind by 10 or more points (4-12, versus 2-17 last year).

*Based on winning percentage, the Hawks have been less capable of coming out on top in advantageous situations on the road. They’re 8-3 when keeping their opponents’ largest lead in single digits (15-4 last year), and they’re 11-4 in games where they get ahead by 10 or more points (17-4 last year).

~lw3

[Admin]

I think it is supposed to mean that the Hawks haven't lost any home games where their opponent's biggest lead was 10 points or less. They left the bold part out, I'm guessing. It is worded badly - a team has to be down by less than 10 points at some point in all games (when it is 0-0, you are down by less than 10 points; the Hawks are 31-23 in these games )

I appreciate you taking the time to clarify, but I'm still confused LOL

*This season, Atlanta has yet to lose a game at home where they’ve been down by no more than single digits (11-0; last year 16-2), or any games where they’ve had the lead themselves by 10 points or more (12-0; last year 18-5).

So we've won every game at home where the opponent hasn't gotten a 10 point lead? We're 17-8 at home so if I'm understanding you that means that all 8 of those home losses have been by 10 points or more? I suppose I'm dense but that doesn't make sense as off the top of my head I can think of the 3 point loss at home to the Celtics and I'm fairly sure we've had more 9 points or less home losses out of those other 7.

Edit - We've also lost by 3 at home to the Warriors, by 7 against the Heat at home and then 9 at home against the Suns. So that's 4 home losses by less than 10 points.

[AHF]

I appreciate you taking the time to clarify, but I'm still confused LOL

So we've won every game at home where the opponent hasn't gotten a 10 point lead? We're 17-8 at home so if I'm understanding you that means that all 8 of those home losses have been by 10 points or more?

I think he is saying they are games in which we have at some point in the game (not necessarily the final score) been down by 10 points or more.

I suppose I'm dense but that doesn't make sense as off the top of my head I can think of the 3 point loss at home to the Celtics and I'm fairly sure we've had more 9 points or less home losses out of those other 7.

Edit - We've also lost by 3 at home to the Warriors, by 7 against the Heat at home and then 9 at home against the Suns. So that's 4 home losses by less than 10 points.

That is the final score, though, not the largest deficit at any point in the game.

[lethalweapon3]

I appreciate you taking the time to clarify, but I'm still confused LOL

So we've won every game at home where the opponent hasn't gotten a 10 point lead? We're 17-8 at home so if I'm understanding you that means that all 8 of those home losses have been by 10 points or more? I suppose I'm dense but that doesn't make sense as off the top of my head I can think of the 3 point loss at home to the Celtics and I'm fairly sure we've had more 9 points or less home losses out of those other 7.

Edit - We've also lost by 3 at home to the Warriors, by 7 against the Heat at home and then 9 at home against the Suns. So that's 4 home losses by less than 10 points.

AHF got the idea above. I attempted to clarify upfront that "Biggest Leads/Deficits" (largest margins during the course of the game, the subject of these stats) and "Margins of Victory/Loss" (final margins at the END of the game, as you presented) are not the same stats.

Here are those "Biggest Deficits" during the eight home losses this season, some of which you mentioned, all of them double-digits:

(chronological order)

Miami - 13 points

Memphis - 30 points

Philadelphia - 20 points

Phoenix - 22 points

Miami (again) - 32 points

Golden State - 13 points

Boston - 15 points

Chicago - 21 points

Again, this was when the opponents' leads were greatest DURING the game, not at the final buzzer.

~lw3

Edited April 3, 2012 by lethalweapon3

[Admin]

Alright I think I got it now ... basically if the opponent hasn't gotten up by at least 10 points on us at home then we've been able to come back and win the game?

[lethalweapon3]

Alright I think I got it now ... basically if the opponent hasn't gotten up by at least 10 points on us at home then we've been able to come back and win the game?

Yep! you got it!~lw3

[Admin]

Yep! you got it!~lw3

Bout time! I'm a little slow sometimes LOLThat's extremely impressive though that we've been able to do that.