Dear God, Chad Ford is a Tool

[AHF]

An excerpt from Ford's column for discussion:

http://insider.espn....-prospects-tier

So how does the tier system work?

A team ranks players in each tier according to team need. So, in Tier 4, if shooting guard is the biggest need, a player like Rivers or Ross is ranked No. 1. If center is the biggest need, Leonard or Zeller is ranked No. 1.

The rules are pretty simple. You always draft the highest-ranked player in a given tier. Also, you never take a player from a lower tier if one from a higher tier is available. So, for example, if the Pistons are drafting No. 9 (Tier 3 territory) and Lillard (a Tier 3 player) is on the board, they take him regardless of positional need. If they have Leonard ranked No. 1 in Tier 4, they still take Lillard even though center is a more pressing need.

This system protects teams from overreaching based on team need. The Pistons won't pass on a clearly superior player like Waiters to fill a need with Perry Jones. However, the system also protects a team from passing on a player who fits a need just because he might be ranked one or two spots lower overall.

The Pistons followed this model last year at the draft. While the consensus was they needed a big, they took Brandon Knight after he fell because they had him ranked in a higher tier.

My all-time favorite historical example is from the Atlanta Hawks. GM Billy Knight took Marvin Williams ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams in 2005, and Shelden Williams ahead of guards such as Brandon Roy and Rajon Rondo in 2006 because of positional needs.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But the teams that run it have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.

What is my problem with the quoted text?

(1) Ford Is Delusional If He Thinks Atlanta's Need at SF > Need at PG: Ford asserts that in 2005 Atlanta passed on the PG position for the SF position due to "positional needs." At the time of the 2005 draft, the Hawks had the following players who could play SF:

Boris Diaw (2003 first round pick), Josh Childress (2004 lottery pick), Josh Smith (2004 top 20 pick), Joe Johnson (max FA), Donta Smith (2004 #34 overall pick)

They had the following players who could play PG:

Tyronn Lue (low dollar FA), Tony Delk (low dollar FA), Royal Ivey (2004 #37 overall pick)

So to start with, we have to recognize that the Hawks had a much greater position need at SF than PG.

(2) Ford Projected Marvin as the 2005 Draft's Star in the Making: Ford had Marvin as the biggest star in the making in the 2005 draft but pretends like he was all about Paul being top pick.

Paul's projection from Ford: Pick #3 - #6

Positives

Paul is T.J. Ford with a jumper. He's lightning quick, has unbelievable court vision, is a superb decision-maker and shoots the lights out from the field and the 3-point line. He pushes the ball relentlessly on offense and already is one of the best penetrators in the game. Despite the pace he plays out, he keeps turnovers to a minimum. His defense is also top notch. He'll be one of the steals leaders in the NBA when he gets there.

Negatives

Size does matter in the NBA and Paul just barely cracks 6 feet, the bare minimum for point guards in the league. Allen Iverson is the last player under 6-foot-8 to go No. 1. Teams wish Paul was stronger, but given his age they believe that will come.

Marvin's projection from Ford: Pick #1 - #3

Positives

In a draft bereft of players with star potential, Williams is one of the few guys scouts are universally excited about. Williams is an unbelievable specimen. He has a great NBA body, top-notch athleticism and the ability to play just about anywhere on the court. He has one of the most developed inside-outside games of any prospect, something the Tar Heels rarely took advantage of. He also possesses a fantastic basketball IQ and work ethic.

Negatives

Williams is still young and inexperienced. He came off the bench all season for the Tar Heels and played in a supporting role to Sean May, Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants. He let his nerves get the best of him during North Carolina's run in the Final Four and didn't have the impact you'd think from such a highly-rated player. There were no Carmelo Anthony-like shining moments for Williams.

Given Ford's tiered projections, Marvin was in a higher tier than Paul as the one player with star potential. In fact, after writing an article on draft busts later in time Ford admitted:

I thought Marvin Williams would be a star.

(3) Ford's Conclusion Is Illogical and In Conflict With the Facts: So if we take Ford's statement about how draft tiers work and combine that with Ford's ratings, we see that Marvin was either in a higher draft tier according to Ford's "chance to be a star" criteria or at least ahead of Paul in the same tier. Given that Atlanta's need at PG over SF was obvious, if Atlanta had followed the "positional need" philosophy for which Ford is busting on them this time then they would have taken Paul or Deron. Atlanta clearly thought Marvin was the better prospect and drafted him based on BPA. Ford's statement to the contrary is laughable in addition to being internally inconsistent and an attempt to scrub out his many statements that Marvin was the guy with the highest upside in the 2005 draft. In fact, at other times Ford has claimed that Atlanta didn't use his tier system and simply ranked the players BPA and had Marvin at #2 behind Bogut -- which is the definition of BPA and the antithesis of drafting for positional need. Edited June 25, 2012 by AHF

[Joker]

I wouldn't say nothing till he used the Hawks as an example like most fools like him didn't think Marvin was all that. Marvin was this year's Andre Drummond.

[MaceCase]

[Admin]

I don't know if the positional need applied to the 1st example of Marvin over Paul / Deron. It's quite possible that it did but I could see where he meant that to only apply to the Shelden draft.And it's insane to suggest that we or anyone else were going to take Rondo at #5 in the draft. Ford is crazy there! Looking back now obviously you'd take him at least that high but nobody saw him being this type of player back then.

[AHF]

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DHIqUkmj-o&feature=related

Let go of the Ford bashing or Ford should let go of his Hawks bashing?If the former, this is how I feel everytime Ford comes up with a new version of his revisionist Hawks bashing:

[AHF]

I don't know if the positional need applied to the 1st example of Marvin over Paul / Deron. It's quite possible that it did but I could see where he meant that to only apply to the Shelden draft.

With Shelden, I totally get the idea that we reached for positional need but it is the Marvin over Paul / Deron example that frustrates me.That is the whole irony with the Hawks and BK: we went BPA in a draft we should have gone with need and went with need in the draft we should have gone BPA. It is the Paul / Deron example that Ford always goes back to with the Hawks and he just does it in ways that are completely irrational and unfair and that obscure his own love affair with Marvin. I can only imagine the amazing team Ford would have put together a few years back with Darko, Marvin and Tyrus Thomas as his guys who he saw as becoming stars.

And it's insane to suggest that we or anyone else were going to take Rondo at #5 in the draft. Ford is crazy there! Looking back now obviously you'd take him at least that high but nobody saw him being this type of player back then.

Ford had Rondo as #6 on his draft board so I can give him credit for that one. (Although I can't help noting his #1 overall guy was Tyrus Thomas.) Edited June 25, 2012 by AHF

[MaceCase]

Let go of the Ford bashing or Ford should let go of his Hawks bashing?If the former, this is how I feel everytime Ford comes up with a new version of his revisionist Hawks bashing:http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU

A lil bit of option A and a lil bit of option B. The name "Chad Ford" is synonymous with the word "tool" so there's not much reason in getting in a lather pointing it out. He's the Hawks personal Skip Bayless. He's a sitcom character with a dated catchphrase "Marvin over Paul!" *cue laugh track* Just let it go.....

[Admin]

With Shelden, I totally get the idea that we reached for positional need but it is the Marvin over Paul / Deron example that frustrates me.That is the whole irony with the Hawks and BK: we went BPA in a draft we should have gone with need and went with need in the draft we should have gone BPA.

Yep you gotta love the irony there!

It is the Paul / Deron example that Ford always goes back to with the Hawks and he just does it in ways that are completely irrational and unfair and that obscure his own love affair with Marvin. I can only imagine the amazing team Ford would have put together a few years back with Darko, Marvin and Tyrus Thomas as his guys who he saw as becoming stars.Ford had Rondo as #6 on his draft board so I can give him credit for that one. (Although I can't help noting his #1 overall guy was Tyrus Thomas.)

I need to go back and look and see what we have posted on Hawksquawk from the 2006 draft to see what his thoughts on Rondo were at the time.

[AHF]

Yep you gotta love the irony there!I need to go back and look and see what we have posted on Hawksquawk from the 2006 draft to see what his thoughts on Rondo were at the time.

As a UK fan, I can tell you he had Rondo much higher than people had him in their mock drafts. While Ford has missed wildly on a lot of players, he hit pretty hard on Rondo.

[Admin]

As a UK fan, I can tell you he had Rondo much higher than people had him in their mock drafts. While Ford has missed wildly on a lot of players, he hit pretty hard on Rondo.

I know that I also liked Rondo A LOT, but I definitely didn't have him that high. What Ford fails to mention as well is that BK tried hard to acquire a 2nd pick to get Rondo but Phoenix wouldn't play ball with us due to what happened with JJ (if memory serves)

[bird_dirt]

An excerpt from Ford's column for discussion:

http://insider.espn....-prospects-tier

What is my problem with the quoted text?

(1) Ford Is Delusional If He Thinks Atlanta's Need at SF > Need at PG: Ford asserts that in 2005 Atlanta passed on the PG position for the SF position due to "positional needs." At the time of the 2005 draft, the Hawks had the following players who could play SF:

Boris Diaw (2003 first round pick), Josh Childress (2004 lottery pick), Josh Smith (2004 top 20 pick), Joe Johnson (max FA), Donta Smith (2004 #34 overall pick)

They had the following players who could play PG:

Tyronn Lue (low dollar FA), Tony Delk (low dollar FA), Royal Ivey (2004 #37 overall pick)

So to start with, we have to recognize that the Hawks had a much greater position need at SF than PG.

(2) Ford Projected Marvin as the 2005 Draft's Star in the Making: Ford had Marvin as the biggest star in the making in the 2005 draft but pretends like he was all about Paul being top pick.

Paul's projection from Ford: Pick #3 - #6

Marvin's projection from Ford: Pick #1 - #3

Given Ford's tiered projections, Marvin was in a higher tier than Paul as the one player with star potential. In fact, after writing an article on draft busts later in time Ford admitted:

(3) Ford's Conclusion Is Illogical and In Conflict With the Facts: So if we take Ford's statement about how draft tiers work and combine that with Ford's ratings, we see that Marvin was either in a higher draft tier according to Ford's "chance to be a star" criteria or at least ahead of Paul in the same tier. Given that Atlanta's need at PG over SF was obvious, if Atlanta had followed the "positional need" philosophy for which Ford is busting on them this time then they would have taken Paul or Deron. Atlanta clearly thought Marvin was the better prospect and drafted him based on BPA. Ford's statement to the contrary is laughable in addition to being internally inconsistent and an attempt to scrub out his many statements that Marvin was the guy with the highest upside in the 2005 draft. In fact, at other times Ford has claimed that Atlanta didn't use his tier system and simply ranked the players BPA and had Marvin at #2 behind Bogut -- which is the definition of BPA and the antithesis of drafting for positional need.

i think it would be good if we posted chad ford's past projections/quotes/etc. to his articles each and every time he brings up the hawks and our past draft woes. everyone knows by now how the hawks wiffed, but he (and the public) needs to be reminded how he wiffed just as badly and he needs to quit beating a dead horse (at least not without beating is own self just as much). we are watching you, chad ford....we are watching you....