The Proper Way to Rebuild in the NBA

[NBASupes]

Again, that statement completely ignores the data that says otherwise.

Teams that tank stay bad. You have a much better chance of becoming a championship team by maintaining your competitiveness and winning games than you do if you lose games on purpose.

Look, if you want to take an 8% chance that you will have a championship caliber team in the next 10 years by tanking, be my guest. I'd rather take the 17% chance that I will have a championship team in the next 10 years if I maintain a 45-49 win team.

The Houston Rockets struck out on getting Chris Bosh in 2010, but that didn't change their plan. They didn't go into tank mode, which is the absolute worst rebuilding strategy a team can take as the data shows, after missing out on their targets. They struck a deal to land Harden, and now are the front runners to land Dwight Howard because they maintained their competitiveness and have a star in hand in Harden.

They got a Raptors pick which was a projected top 5-8 pick. That was a tank worthy pick which is why Houston was able to get Harden. If OKC had their way, they would have gotten Klay T or B. Beal but both teams declined the trade.

The chart didn't come out properly.

The bottom line is, if you want to guarantee that the team will not sniff the playoffs for the next 4 years, then tanking is the way to go. If want to take the longest route towards winning a championship, then tanking is the way to go. If you want to take the route that gives you the least chance of building a championship team, tanking is the way to go.

Your charts do little to help us get to our goals. How many assets do we got? Is there any team willing to trade for Jeff for a 1st rounder, much less a top 10 pick like Lowry? What can we trade Smoove for? We tried, the best we got was players like LRBM.

Edited June 24, 2013 by Leadership

[Admin]

We need to calm down on the James Harden "superstar" talks. Joe Johnson look really good his first two years here. His second year he put up 'Harden' numbers. Was/is he is a superstar?

Houston so far has been one and done and all of a sudden they are the blueprint to rebuild? Remember when OKC was the blueprint? These things change like the weather. I do agree that tanking should be final option if trades and FA don't work out. Permanent mediocrity again should get Ferry IMO. What is the point of getting rid of Joe's and Marvin's contracts?

Joe Johnson has NEVER had a year that's comparable to what Harden had last year. I don't think that JJ's best stat in each category from any given year even matches Harden's year last year. AHF tracked his stats quite nicely in the NBA Forum, for those who are doubting it.

Harden may not be a 'superstar' yet, but he's trending in that direction.

[Admin]

How did that work out for them? He's not quite as replaceable as they thought he was. Martin is a good scorer but Harden puts serious pressure on defenses that is hard to replace.

I think Harden has the ability to be a star in the league. I agree with others that it's possibly still a little too early to annoint him the next big thing, but he's got the tools. Will he be the next Kobe or the next Joe Johnson or something in between? Only time will tell, but just because we failed on Joe doesn't mean that's always the wrong approach. The failure with Joe was re-signing him to a max deal, not trading for him in the first place.

Actually it worked out quite well as they were a better team this year but the season fell apart when Westbrook got hurt.

[NBASupes]

Joe Johnson has NEVER had a year that's comparable to what Harden had last year. I don't think that JJ's best stat in each category from any given year even matches Harden's year last year. AHF tracked his stats quite nicely in the NBA Forum, for those who are doubting it.

Harden may not be a 'superstar' yet, but he's trending in that direction.

Joe Johnson never had a season where his team was better without him then with him. Not in Boston. Not in Phoenix. Not in Atlanta. Not in Brooklyn.

Joe has been a very good two way SG. To say Joe has never had a season like Harden is true. Joe has had better seasons then Harden for most of his career. I'll take a winner who helps his team win even if he's not a #1 option over a chucker who plays little defense like Harden all day.

Harden will never be a superstar. Ever.

Edited June 24, 2013 by Leadership

[Dragitoff]

Actually it worked out quite well as they were a better team this year but the season fell apart when Westbrook got hurt.

Yeah my point was moot (not mute) since I forgot Westbrook got hurt. lol. There went my argument. I still don't agree with the tanking options, but oh well. I'm not getting neck deep in this crap argument. There's no winner in this argument since no side will ever agree they were wrong and there's virtually no true way to prove it.

[KB21]

They got a Raptors pick which was a projected top 5-8 pick. That was a tank worthy pick which is why Houston was able to get Harden. If OKC had their way, they would have gotten Klay T or B. Beal but both teams declined the trade.

Your charts do little to help us get to our goals. How many assets do we got? Is there any team willing to trade for Jeff for a 1st rounder, much less a top 10 pick like Lowry? What can we trade Smoove for? We tried, the best we got was players like LRBM.

But somehow intentionally losing helps us get to our goals, when history proves that it doesn't help you get to a championship level.

In what world are you living in?

What young assets do we have? You have to develop those young assets. The Hawks have plenty of cap space to acquire those assets the way Houston did with Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik last year. You resign Jeff Teague, who is an ascending player in the league, to a 3 year deal and if he continues improving, you either have your starting point guard or a guy you can flip in a trade for a star player.

Here's what tanking does for you. It creates a culture of losing that no player wants to be a part of. Good luck trying to convince free agents to sign with you after you intentionally lose games to get a better draft pick. It also gives you approximately a 30% chance of even making the playoffs in 4 years time. I personally don't want to undertake a strategy where I may not even get to where I am at now in 4 years time.

[Buzzard]

Your charts do little to help us get to our goals. How many assets do we got? Is there any team willing to trade for Jeff for a 1st rounder, much less a top 10 pick like Lowry? What can we trade Smoove for? We tried, the best we got was players like LRBM.

It may not help but I think KB did a great job of showing how tanking is a historically long rebuild. Four years, at best, to get back in the playoffs. Then you face exactly what we have been facing the last couple of seasons. Teams leapfrogging over you because they are taking the trade/free agency route.

OKC is looking at that now with GSW and the Clips. Not to mention a solid Memphis team.

[KB21]

Yeah my point was moot (not mute) since I forgot Westbrook got hurt. lol. There went my argument. I still don't agree with the tanking options, but oh well. I'm not getting neck deep in this crap argument. There's no winner in this argument since no side will ever agree they were wrong and there's virtually no true way to prove it.

Wrong. It has been proven that tanking is a poor strategy. There are just those that choose to ignore the data.

[NBASupes]

It may not help but I think KB did a great job of showing how tanking is a historically long rebuild. Four years, at best, to get back in the playoffs. Then you face exactly what we have been facing the last couple of seasons. Teams leapfrogging over you because they are taking the trade/free agency route.

OKC is looking at that now with GSW and the Clips. Not to mention a solid Memphis team.

I seen successful tanking a lot more than staying in the middle. The only team I've seen master being in the middle are the Lakers. They landed Kobe and Shaq and then landed Gasol for Kwame Brown. They seems to have it figured out.

[NBASupes]

Wrong. It has been proven that tanking is a poor strategy. There are just those that choose to ignore the data.

Your strategy is wrong. You haven't show us a solid example of a team in the middle that became a contender. You talked about Houston and just Houston and they are in the middle just like us. Your strategy is a poor strategy and you know it too.

[Guest]

Harden may or may not be a Superstar but in his 1st year as the man in Houston he helped to lead them to a playoff spot and a winning record. On the flip side Joe did help the Hawks double their win total to a wopping 26 games and the following year lead them to the playoffs with a losing record in a weak east.....Ooookaaay!!!!(And I'm a Joe fan)

[Admin]

It just kills me that people think using the lottery is a longshot...when luring the top FA to Atlanta (LeBron, Howard, CP3) is not. Howard has to want to be here. Please don't forget that. The same would apply to James Harden - this was a sign and trade.

What "assets" are we stock piling by the way? Certainly not those mid/late 1st rounders. Or, do we now believe the odds of finding Tony Parker or Clyde Drexler late in the draft are better than finding a potential star in the lottery? Not only that, but just having the label of being a "lottery pick" means that you are a highly coveted/tradeable asset. So, we believe that our late 1st rounders are going to be worth more than the lottery picks available to lesser teams?

And we're also not talking about trading a guy like Jefferson for a star. Unless, y'know you'd trade Al Horford for a package like Boozer/Robinson... Because you're not going to get a legitimate star by trading cheap assets.

Tanking is the art of losing games on purpose. This isn't about losing games, it's about rebuilding. If you don't acquire the best assets you can while rebuilding, and you try to maintain a winning record, you're going to be stuck in the middle of the pack indefinitely. Unless you luck up and a star wants to come here...which they don't, despite all of our recent playoff success.

Do you think that Dwight would be going to Houston without Harden? Of course not, but they got Harden first and now Dwight reportedly wants to go there.

What assets did Houston use to get Harden? A volume shooter in Kevin Martin, whom I believe was a 2nd round pick, plus mid 1st pick (12th) Jeremy Lamb, 2 future 1sts and a 2nd rounder.

[KB21]

I seen successful tanking a lot more than staying in the middle. The only team I've seen master being in the middle are the Lakers. They landed Kobe and Shaq and then landed Gasol for Kwame Brown. They seems to have it figured out.

Really?

You've seen a lot more success with tanking than you have with staying in the middle?

Please detail that.

Please show me the teams (note that teams is plural, as if there are more successes, then there should be multiple teams) that won a championship within a 4 year period of their tank job.

[NBASupes]

But somehow intentionally losing helps us get to our goals, when history proves that it doesn't help you get to a championship level.

In what world are you living in?

What young assets do we have? You have to develop those young assets. The Hawks have plenty of cap space to acquire those assets the way Houston did with Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik last year. You resign Jeff Teague, who is an ascending player in the league, to a 3 year deal and if he continues improving, you either have your starting point guard or a guy you can flip in a trade for a star player.

Here's what tanking does for you. It creates a culture of losing that no player wants to be a part of. Good luck trying to convince free agents to sign with you after you intentionally lose games to get a better draft pick. It also gives you approximately a 30% chance of even making the playoffs in 4 years time. I personally don't want to undertake a strategy where I may not even get to where I am at now in 4 years time.

Jeremy Lin is not an asset. No one will give you a 1st for him. They won't even take his contract straight up.

Aisk is an asset.

Martin was an asset. Scola wasn't so they amnesty him.

Lowry was an asset.

Dragic could have been an asset. Talk about a bad deal for Phx. They traded him for Aaron Brooks.

Harden is an asset.

Parsons is currently an asset but that will change the minute he gets a new deal.

Atlanta has three assets.

Josh

Jeff

Al

Two of them can't get us a 1st rounder in 2014 without taking back some salary. Sorry but our assets don't fly.

[Admin]

What you fail to site is the huge difference between Bron, Durant vs Harden. Hardens eff is much closer to someone like Brook Lopez than it is to the top two players in the league.

And how many playoff wins did Harden and Lin get them?

I like Harden but lets relax. He is not prime Kobe, Jordan or TMac. At least not until he has done something good for more than a season.

How many playoff wins did Kobe have in 05-06 and 06-07? It takes more than 1 star / superstar for a team to have success. And man please don't use TMac as an example of carrying a team as this is the 1st year he's ever been out of the 1st round.

[NBASupes]

Harden may or may not be a Superstar but in his 1st year as the man in Houston he helped to lead them to a playoff spot and a winning record. On the flip side Joe did help the Hawks double their win total to a wopping 26 games and the following year lead them to the playoffs with a losing record in a weak east.....Ooookaaay!!!!(And I'm a Joe fan)

They had a winning record with Martin, Lowry and Scola. Where is the massive improvement?

The Hawks was much worse than the Rockets when Joe arrived. We were the Bobcats level two years ago in terms of talent.

[NBASupes]

Really?

You've seen a lot more success with tanking than you have with staying in the middle?

Please detail that.

Please show me the teams (note that teams is plural, as if there are more successes, then there should be multiple teams) that won a championship within a 4 year period of their tank job.

Post the ones who were success going from the middle to becoming contenders. Give me a 20 year window. 1993-2013 and I'll give you the same thing for tanking to becoming contenders. You just talk and post stats, I haven't seen you for one minute truly defend your stance.

We both got till 5PM to post our results. Good luck.

Edited June 24, 2013 by Leadership

[Dragitoff]

Jeremy Lin is not an asset. No one will give you a 1st for him. They won't even take his contract straight up.

Aisk is an asset.

Martin was an asset. Scola wasn't so they amnesty him.

Lowry was an asset.

Dragic could have been an asset. Talk about a bad deal for Phx. They traded him for Aaron Brooks.

Harden is an asset.

Parsons is currently an asset but that will change the minute he gets a new deal.

Atlanta has three assets.

Josh

Jeff

Al

Two of them can't get us a 1st rounder in 2014 without taking back some salary. Sorry but our assets don't fly.

I think it's funny that people consider Martin an asset but when it was discussed about ATL going after him he was garbage. I think Lin is an asset because he has shown he can be a legit playmaker in the right type of offense where he has the ball. He's underutilized in Houston where Harden dominates the ball. He's a high turnover guy that can make a lot happen when given the reigns. He's good for a struggling team that needs a PG and marketability.

You forgot ATL also has 4 picks in this draft as an asset.

[NBASupes]

I think it's funny that people consider Martin an asset but when it was discussed about ATL going after him he was garbage. I think Lin is an asset because he has shown he can be a legit playmaker in the right type of offense where he has the ball. He's underutilized in Houston where Harden dominates the ball. He's a high turnover guy that can make a lot happen when given the reigns. He's good for a struggling team that needs a PG and marketability.

You forgot ATL also has 4 picks in this draft as an asset.

What team in the NBA will let Lin dominate the ball and cause turnovers and be exposed for being dominate with just one hand. His impact is a total negative in the playoffs. Beverly showed more ability than Lin at times.

The 1st round picks are assets.

Edited June 24, 2013 by Leadership

[Admin]

What team in the NBA will let Lin dominate the ball and cause turnovers and be exposed for being dominate with just one hand. His impact is a total negative in the playoffs. Beverly showed more ability than Lin at times.

The 1st round picks are assets.

Lin had one of the lowest usages among all PGs last year because of playing with a ball dominant Harden. He's just not the right type of PG to play beside Harden, but that doesn't decrease his value to a team that would use him properly and let him dominate the ball.