It has been 1 year since DF took over. Things we have learn so far.

[High5]

We have promising coaches and draft picks for the first time in a while. We haven't dropped much if any competitively while becoming much more flexible. We actually have room to grow now. The pieces are in place for the franchise to really turn into a respectable organization. There's still a lot to do, but I'm optimistic.

[LamarHampton]

Buzz, most people like you don't expect shit out of the Hawks. So the Hawks just doing something is like Charlotte just doing something. It's gets praised even when it doesn't make sense at all.

So much for having expectations of the Hawks. Weren't you leaving to be a Pelicans fan anyway? Unlike Cleveland with Bron, just doing shit gets praise here while gets highly evaluated there. Larry Hughes looked like a great signing using adv stats and metrics till you put him next to Bron and took the ball out of his hands. It's going to be fun to see Milsap and Horf without one rim protector on the roster especially for guys like me who know it will be a bad result even if we had great perimeter defenders which we don't have of course.

And what's all this talk about not having a rim protector?

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2013/7/20/4530268/2013-NBA-offseason-danny-ferry-josh-smith-paul-millsap-elton-brand

So how did GM Danny Ferry address the defensive concerns that stemmed from a Millsap-Horford frontcourt? He brought in one of the league’s most effective defensive power forwards, Elton Brand.

It was only two years ago Brand was perceived as a realistic candidate for the Defensive Player of the Year award. He was the anchor of Philadelphia’s stalwart front line, and though it helped having Andre Iguodala shut down opposing wings and limit penetration, Brand was the glue that held the pieces together—a strong rim protector who upheld Kirk Goldsberry’s principles of proximal field goal percentage.

According to Goldsberry’s research, which covers all of the 2011-2012 season and a good portion of the 2012-2013 season, when Brand was an interior defender within 5 feet of any shot attempt, he held opponents to the fourth lowest field goal percentage of any player in the NBA (38.0%). He finished better than notable defensive mainstays Roy Hibbert (5^th, 38.7%), JaVale McGee (10^th, 42.5%), Tim Duncan (14^th, 43.4%), Dwight Howard (15^th, 43.5%), Kevin Garnett (21^st, 44.9%), and Tyson Chandler (28^th, 45.7%).

In other words, while Brand may not block shots as well as Hibbert or McGee, he alters and challenges shots better than almost anyone in the NBA because of positioning and defensive understanding.

[IllestPamfilis]

Ummm...he seems pretty solid at FA so far. We have to build an identity before we can bring in the big free agents. I really think in a year or two Bud and company will be able to lure stars into Atlanta. Everybody LOVES Atlanta, it's just a matter of becoming a serious franchise. We've been mediocre for so long that it's definitely put on a stain on us.

[NBASupes]

And what's all this talk about not having a rim protector?

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2013/7/20/4530268/2013-NBA-offseason-danny-ferry-josh-smith-paul-millsap-elton-brand

So how did GM Danny Ferry address the defensive concerns that stemmed from a Millsap-Horford frontcourt? He brought in one of the league’s most effective defensive power forwards, Elton Brand.

It was only two years ago Brand was perceived as a realistic candidate for the Defensive Player of the Year award. He was the anchor of Philadelphia’s stalwart front line, and though it helped having Andre Iguodala shut down opposing wings and limit penetration, Brand was the glue that held the pieces together—a strong rim protector who upheld Kirk Goldsberry’s principles of proximal field goal percentage.

According to Goldsberry’s research, which covers all of the 2011-2012 season and a good portion of the 2012-2013 season, when Brand was an interior defender within 5 feet of any shot attempt, he held opponents to the fourth lowest field goal percentage of any player in the NBA (38.0%). He finished better than notable defensive mainstays Roy Hibbert (5^th, 38.7%), JaVale McGee (10^th, 42.5%), Tim Duncan (14^th, 43.4%), Dwight Howard (15^th, 43.5%), Kevin Garnett (21^st, 44.9%), and Tyson Chandler (28^th, 45.7%).

In other words, while Brand may not block shots as well as Hibbert or McGee, he alters and challenges shots better than almost anyone in the NBA because of positioning and defensive understanding.

I know he is a great low post defender but he is not a rim protector and has only played 21.8 MPG and his game has greatly regressed in two years. Not to mention, his PFG% is 4th in the NBA. You know who is 2nd? Andrea Bargnani.

3rd is Kendrick Perkins who is playing next to a shot blocker in Serge Ibaka. I understand you guys love to pop shit with me but at times just accept an L and just keep it moving brother.

Edited July 22, 2013 by nbasupes40retired

[Buzzard]

Smh, once again, you are using stats out of context like KB21. His TS% the previous season with Washington was .523. 7.7 WS, and he had a 21.6 which was the highest for any free agent that off-season and in the previous two off-seasons. While some questioned his contract year impact, many didn't question his talent which was in the top 15-20 of that NBA season. So while you get on your high horse of misusing statistics, I will say Danny signed who he felt was the best FA by metrics, stats, and talent even if he wasn't consistent with his career chart. You and KB21 have this amazing skill to ingore reality and misuse stats to justify a point that makes zero sense.

If the stats you misused was true in which it is for that reference, that would make Danny Ferry even dumber than what I am saying he was for making that signing right?

.523 TS is average at best and would rank 44th among SG's last season. I don't misuse stats, I pay attention to the whole picture. Ferry wanted players beside Bron. Bron wanted players beside him. Hughes is most definitely not a scrub; but to claim Ferry thought Hughes was an efficient scorer is ignoring the stats completely. His best seasons he was average at best.

Edited July 22, 2013 by Buzzard

[NBASupes]

.523 TS is average at best and would rank 44th among SG's last season. I don't misuse stats, I pay attention to the whole picture. Ferry wanted players beside Bron. Bron wanted players beside him. Hughes is most definitely not a scrub; but to claim Ferry thought Hughes was an efficient scorer is ignoring the stats completely. His best seasons he was average at best.

I never claim he was efficient, if you are going to put words in my mouth be accurate. We are talking about the 2004-05 season, not today's NBA. In 2004-05, he was one of the best players that season. The best TS% in 04-05 was Damon Jones who wasn't close to a top 50 player that NBA season. Just another point of reference why Buzz should stop using stats if he doesn't know how to explain a point doing so. Buzz, I have love for you believe or not. I just think you like to bs to just to argue. I don't even see how this backs your point in favor of Ferry's crappy free agency history.

His best was very good at best. Not average at all especially if you compare it to others in that 2004-05 season.

[Buzzard]

I never claim he was efficient, if you are going to put words in my mouth be accurate. We are talking about the 2004-05 season, not today's NBA. In 2004-05, he was one of the best players that season. The best TS% in 04-05 was Damon Jones who wasn't close to a top 50 player that NBA season. Just another point of reference why Buzz should stop using stats if he doesn't know how to explain a point doing so. Buzz, I have love for you believe or not. I just think you like to bs to just to argue. I don't even see how this backs your point in favor of Ferry's crappy free agency history.

His best was very good at best. Not average at all especially if you compare it to others in that 2004-05 season.

You started this Hughes thing out by claiming his advanced stats looked great beside Bron. Which is BS. His advanced stats, even during his best season was average. Which is the truth. Get your story straight or do I need to quote your post?

One bad signing does not equal crappy IMO. If you think it does, you are seeking perfection and should look to the Heavens for our next GM. Even Jerry West has bombed on a few deals ( picks, trades, signings ).

[MrMeltdown]

Brand is far from the rim protector we need. He is undersized and when pairing him with another undersized player like Horford that is a bad combo, even Josh could not effectively protect the rim for us against the real competition but he is better than Brand at that. We are still a team that lacks in length and height. The KG's of the world will stay have there way with the Hawks when it matters.

[TheFuzz]

We know Ferry's solid. Struck out on Howard but that ship sailed the moment Doc was traded to the Clippers. We know Ferry prefers signing skilled players like Millsap on solid deals to overpaying "rim-protecting" scrubs like Dalembert. He drafts well. Who do people want instead of John Jenkins now at that spot? Jeffery Taylor is solid. I guess Perry Jones might one day be an ok player?

We know he hasn't lost a trade yet. We know he doesn't hand out bad contracts, though Carroll has to prove some things.

Bad at free agency? Who should we have signed instead when Howard and Paul were unavailable? Tyreke cost $12M a year...

[Buzzard]

Brand is far from the rim protector we need. He is undersized and when pairing him with another undersized player like Horford that is a bad combo, even Josh could not effectively protect the rim for us against the real competition but he is better than Brand at that. We are still a team that lacks in length and height. The KG's of the world will stay have there way with the Hawks when it matters.

Thinking Josh altered KG or any other post playing power forward shots is a dream. Josh altered PG/SG/SF shots with his weak side help. Brand is so much more sound in the post, on both ends of the floor, than Josh, this should not even be a discussion.

[NBASupes]

You started this Hughes thing out by claiming his advanced stats looked great beside Bron. Which is BS. His advanced stats, even during his best season was average. Which is the truth. Get your story straight or do I need to quote your post?

One bad signing does not equal crappy IMO. If you think it does, you are seeking perfection and should look to the Heavens for our next GM. Even Jerry West has bombed on a few deals ( picks, trades, signings ).

I never claim that once. I claim that it was a joke from the time it started and Ferry should have knew better that a ball dominate player who isn't elite will never fit next to Bron. You are putting words in my mouth and you are forgetting why you even started to argue with me for starters. I claim his move to sign Hughes was terrible, you disagree then went off the tracks now it's seems like you are trying to take my talking points and turn them into yours. What part of the game is this Buzz?

[AHF]

FWIW - Hughes was 34th out of 51 players in TS% among players who played G or G-F (according to basketball reference) during the 2004-05 season. (Criteria: Must have scored 800 points and shot at least .400 TS%). Hughes had a .523 TS% that season while free agent Joe Johnson shot .556 TS%. Hughes and JJ had almost the exact same Win Shares that season (7.7 to 7.6; 16th to 17th among this same group of guards). Hughes was ranked higher in PER due to its rewarding of high usage players.

http://bkref.com/tiny/pNcgv

[Buzzard]

I never claim that once. I claim that it was a joke from the time it started and Ferry should have knew better that a ball dominate player who isn't elite will never fit next to Bron. You are putting words in my mouth and you are forgetting why you even started to argue with me for starters. I claim his move to sign Hughes was terrible, you disagree then went off the tracks now it's seems like you are trying to take my talking points and turn them into yours. What part of the game is this Buzz?

Paragraph from your previous post in this thread.

So much for having expectations of the Hawks. Unlike Cleveland with Bron, just doing shit gets praise here while gets highly evaluated there. Larry Hughes looked like a great signing using adv stats and metrics till you put him next to Bron and took the ball out of his hands. It's going to be fun to see Milsap and Horf without one rim protector on the roster especially for guys like me who know it will be a bad result even if we had great perimeter defenders which we don't have of course.

How does Hughes look great using advanced stats and metrics when for his career they suck and for his two best seasons he is average? Great and average are not the same in any language.

Here is what I think. Because you, as most of us do, know Ferry uses metrics as part of his process you just assumed Larry had good numbers. Now that it is pointed out you were 100% incorrect in that assumption you deflect.

I think Hughes is the perfect example that shows Ferry does not use just numbers. Millsap is a good one as well; as his TS% is not great ( its average ) for a big man. Danny may get a idea of a players worth with numbers but at end of the day, he also knows players play on the court and not on a stat sheet.

Edited July 22, 2013 by Buzzard

[NBASupes]

FWIW - Hughes was 34th out of 51 players in TS% among players who played G or G-F (according to basketball reference) during the 2004-05 season. (Criteria: Must have scored 800 points and shot at least .400 TS%). Hughes had a .523 TS% that season while free agent Joe Johnson shot .556 TS%. Hughes and JJ had almost the exact same Win Shares that season (7.7 to 7.6; 16th to 17th among this same group of guards). Hughes was ranked higher in PER due to its rewarding of high usage players.

http://bkref.com/tiny/pNcgv

Hughes had the highest WS for anyone who played under 70 games in the NBA. If he played all 82 games at his current rate in 04-05, his WS would have been even higher. Just like i can make excuses for why his WS could be higher, you could do the what if for his PER. The bottom line was his WS is what it is as well as his PER. If we want to be honest on both sides, let's just look at the stats for what they are... stats.

[NBASupes]

How does Hughes look great using advanced stats and metrics when for his career they suck and for his two best seasons he is average? Great and average are not the same in any language.

Here is what I think. Because you, as most of us do, know Ferry uses metrics as part of his process you just assumed Larry had good numbers. Now that it is pointed out you were 100% incorrect in that assumption you deflect.

I think Hughes is the perfect example that shows Ferry does not use just numbers. Millsap is a good one as well; as his TS% is not great ( its average ) for a big man. Danny may get a idea of a players worth with numbers but at end of the day, he also knows players play on the court and not on a stat sheet.

I was only referring to his contract year which I should have specified. I agree, average and great is a major gap but with that said, he was in the top 15-20 in most major category and he was the 2nd most hyped FA after Michael Redd.

I don't think the Milsap deal was terrible. I see a lot of value of him as a key role player like a Lamar Odom but I don't understand him and Horford combination. I have more hope in 2014-15 when it's Horf-Bebe combo with Milsap playing a lot of mins.

[AHF]

Hughes had the highest WS for anyone who played under 70 games in the NBA. If he played all 82 games at his current rate in 04-05, his WS would have been even higher. Just like i can make excuses for why his WS could be higher, you could do the what if for his PER. The bottom line was his WS is what it is as well as his PER. If we want to be honest on both sides, let's just look at the stats for what they are... stats.

That is exactly what I am looking at. If you understand the stat PER, you know it rewards low efficiency, high usage players. That and its inability to reflect defensive value are the two largest limitations of the stat, IMO. I believe the difference in PER/WS ranking is because of Hughes' high usage rate because it isn't his 43% fg% (28th of 51 players) or his 28% 3pt% (47th of 51 players) that season.

The bottomline is that I agree with you that Ferry made a bad decision in signing Hughes. I also would state that the 2004-05 season was an extreme outlier which represents the career high for Hughes in every advanced metric and nearly doubles his next best season in the WS and WS/48 numbers. Heck, even his steal % is more than 50% greater than his career average.

Interestingly, it is the exact middle of his career as well since he had 6 seasons before and after the 2004-05 year and none of them were remotely close to as good as that season. It could be in the dictionary next to outlier.

Edited July 23, 2013 by AHF

[DrReality]

the new boss is same as the old boss.

Pete Townsend

Time will tell