The State of the East Address

[nathan2331]

I think now is my turn to do some homework to back-up my thoughts on the direction this franchise is heading. My belief is that healthy, we are the third best team in this conference and will stay so for the next 2-3 years barring any groundbreaking move by another team. Here's why:

Indiana Pacers- The hottest team in the league right now, but I have reservations about them long-term. I think they're OKC part two where they will have trouble keeping their core together. Fun fact: They have $65,708,778 in salary next year and Paul George qualifies for an extra $3 million for being an All-Star for a second year (I believe because of the Rose Rule Bonus he gets a 30% instead of 25% increase, discussed here- http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/229953/Pacers-Finalizing-$90M-Max-Extension-For-Paul-George). I've been adamant (perhaps too much) about stealing Stephenson away from them. They could always trade a bad contract away like George Hill, but will there be any takers? If we or another team sign him, I'd put them as equals with us. We both have average, point guards though I'd take Teague over Hill, especially considering they are paid the same. George kills us at the SG/SF position, Millsap is better than West (not to mention their contracts) but Horford neutralizes Hibbert being a stretch 5.

Miami Heat- Honestly this team doesn't impress me THAT much. James carries them but after him there's only Bosh, a broken-down Wade and a bunch of bench players. They will most probably stay the best team for the next 2-3 years so long as James stays healthy and stays there, but Wade's knees man. I do think they are beatable in a 7 game series though. In the unlikely event James does decide to leave, they may be able to receive talent back in a sign-and-trade, just not enough to keep them as championship favorites.

Toronto Raptors- The current three seed with a future that is hard to predict. After dealing away Rudy Gay for expiring and trading Barngani for picks, possible executive of the year Masai Ujiri will find the next part of his job hard- attracting free agents to Toronto. They have promising players in guys like Ross and Valanciunas, but how long, if ever will it take for them to reach their potential. Don't be surprised if they end up having to over-pay for players like Kyle Lowry to keep them around.

Chicago Bulls- I'm pretty sure they're moving in the wrong direction. After trading Deng for the joke that is Andrew Bynum, I thought they were tanking for sure. Shows how lacking the East is. If they choose to amnesty Carlos Boozer (not a guarantee given their owner) they could manage to sign a big time free agent like Anthony (not much else) or a couple of smaller deals like Gordon Hayward, Greg Monroe or Avery Bradley.

Washington Wizards- They will go as far as Beal and Wall (and to a lesser extent Porter) can take them. While they will have money to spend they will first need to decide whether Gortat and Ariza are worth retaining, and at what cost? I don't view them as the next great team, though despite their promising core.

Brooklyn Nets- Here's another Fun fact: the Nets have $89,961,596 in salary while their players get older and no less injury prone. Funner fact: We can swap picks again with them next year. This team will do nothing in playoffs and nothing in the near future. They barely have anything to show for the present at the cost of their future. We may not get anything this year but they're capped out and possess less and less desirable assets to pull another trade off. Would hate to be in their position right now. Having deep pockets is nice, but you can't simply buy the league.

Charlotte Bobcats- This is the poster-child for how not to run an NBA organization. Blown after blown draft picks show what happens when tanking goes wrong. At least with Ben Gordon coming off the books they'll have some money to spend (made a good decision signing Jefferson), but I don't think they can surpass us. I'll just leave with this: if I owned a franchise I'd hire their GM to advise the team on who to draft, then do the complete opposite.

Detroit Pistons/Cleveland Cavaliers/New York Knicks- Dysfunctional organizations with their intentions set on winning. While each team has a player seemingly worth building around (Drummond, Irving and Anthony) each team has done a bad job of doing so. They won't be good for a while, mostly because they will hold themselves back.

Boston Celtics/Orlando Magic/Philadelphia 76ers/Milwaukee Bucks- Shameless tankers that ought to be ashamed of themselves. They may get a franchise talent, but they also may see it go to waste. I can see the merits of their strategy.

I hope my opinion is a bit clearer now. The road to a championship has never been easier and I think that's why Ferry tried to build a winner instead of rebuilding. I didn't talk about the West because frankly, they don't matter. The Heat and Pacers do because the are ahead of us. Sure other teams in the East won't stand pat and wait but they can't do much if the have a star player ruined by injuries (Chicago) or can't attract free agents (Toronto).

[Pacman21]

I disagree about Orlando and Boston I think they've set themselves up nicely for the future and the Bulls can go either way depending on Rose but I agree with alot of the rest

[nathan2331]

I disagree about Orlando and Boston I think they've set themselves up nicely for the future and the Bulls can go either way depending on Rose but I agree with alot of the rest

I shouldn't have been so negative towards them. Orlando, Boston and Philadelphia did what's best for their team and even with the Bucks I don't think they intended to be this bad, and if they did then good for them.

[benhillboy]

Good read. I share your Stephenson affinity, Shredder and Bebe come back ready to contribute, we get a stud in the draft with Al and we're on the move to the top.

[nathan2331]

Darn, I was hoping for a response from some of the pro- rebuilders here.

[turnermx]

Reloading!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[nathan2331]

I'm squarely on the tank train but I think what the anti-tankers don't realize is that we all view the league similarly. A healthy Hawks team is 3-5 at worst in the East as it's currently constituted. Where we probably disagree is in how we view the value of being 3-5. I don't think it means much because we're not on par with IN/Miami right now even as flawed as Miami is IMO. I agree with much of what you wrote, which is nice analysis by the way. I do think you're too harsh on Bos/Phi/Mil as you seem to begrudingly (sp?) acquiesce to. Take Milwaukee for example. The Bucks are basically Hawks-lite in some ways. They won't attract any FA and have a ownership/FO that has a bad rep around the league. After this draft they could have 2 7', high-quality defenders (one to keep, one to trade) which could turn into another talented backcourt piece to go along with Henson and Giannis. They've actually set themselves up to have the potential to really improve this offseason. If they end up with a good coach who knows what they're future would hold. Dare I say, despite how AWFUL they are this year due to the tank, it could get markedly better with some shrewd moves. IMO, it's not the strategy that's the issue, it's poor execution after the fact (i.e. Bobcats).

Fair enough, I did correct myself earlier about what I said concerning Orl/Phi/Bos but you are still right about them. I still maintain that we made the best decision to try and win games simply due to the fact that we only have two teams in our way. If Stephenson leaves Indy, that number drops to 1 (we can take Indy in a series). Now if I'm wrong and we still can't hang with the big boys, then I'm fine packing it up. But I think we have a chance to do something special with how weak the East is at the moment.

[Guest]

Didn't the trade of Granger allow Indy space to re-sign Stephenson? I suppose he could opt for a change/more prominent role on a team. I think that'd be a mistake though. I'm not as high on him as most. Seems like a more in control version of J.R. Smith. The East is ripe for the picking for a Spurs-esque squad who's solid enough and mentally-strong enough to get through Miami's flash and Indy's D. We can certainly be that. Just need some pieces.

Indy will be at $65.7 mil next season if the offer Evan Turner his QO of $8.7 mil (which I doubt). If they renounce him they will $57mil. They can go over the cap to sign Stephenson (I've seen nbrs in the $10-$12 mil range) which gets them close to LT territory - Bird already said they are not in a position to be a LT paying team.If a team offers Stephenson more - Indy might think twice about matching.

[AHF]

Indy will be at $65.7 mil next season if the offer Evan Turner his QO of $8.7 mil (which I doubt).

Unless Turner does something completely new and wonderful in Indy, there is not a chance they will offer Turner that QO.

[Guest]

Unless Turner does something completely new and wonderful in Indy, there is not a chance they will offer Turner that QO.

Or unless Stephenson gets waaaaay beyond their price range.

[AHF]

Or unless Stephenson gets waaaaay beyond their price range.

They still won't make a QO to Turner. They have to make the offer before they know Stephenson's price range and they will be looking to sign Turner for less. Paying $13M for Stephenson is worth it if the alternative is $9M for Turner.

[Guest]

They still won't make a QO to Turner. They have to make the offer before they know Stephenson's price range and they will be looking to sign Turner for less. Paying $13M for Stephenson is worth it if the alternative is $9M for Turner.

Definitely agree that a Turner is not worth 9 mil