The History of NBA draft Picks 5-14

[Guest]

Interesting read.

5th Pick

Best Players: Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, Vince Carter, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Juwan Howard, Steve Smith, Mitch Richmond, Scottie Pippen, Charles Barkley

Duds: Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Jonathan Bender

On average, the fifth overall selection plays in the NBA for 9.8 years, which is skewed a little because of the number of Hall of Fame-level guys the fifth has produced. In 30 seasons, the fifth pick has produced 11 All-Star players.

6th Pick

Best Players: Damian Lillard, Brandon Roy, Wally Szczerbiak, Antoine Walker, Tom Gugliotta, Hersey Hawkins, Kenny Smith

Duds: Jonny Flynn, Yi Jianlian, Dajuan Wagner, DerMarr Johnson, Robert Traylor

The sixth pick produced a lot of average NBA players, with some notable disappointments. On average, the sixth pick plays 7.1 years in the NBA and has produced seven All-Star players in 30 years. The six has not been kind in the modern era with a lot of boom or bust guys, who ultimately busted.

7th Pick

Best Players: Harrison Barnes, Steph Curry, Greg Monroe, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Richard Hamilton, Jason Williams, Damon Stoudemire, Kevin Johnson, Chris Mullin

Duds: Bismack Biyombo, Eddie Griffin, Chris Mihm, Tim Thomas, Roy Tarpley

The seventh pick has produced some solid NBA players and few massive misses. There were a few swing-for-the-fences picks at seven (that’s you, Bismack). On average, the seventh pick has played 8.5 years in the NBA and produced six All-Star players.

The seventh pick has produced some role-player type guys, so it’s not a terrible pick historically. However, there are no real mega-stars out of the seven except for maybe Steph Curry.

8th Pick

Best Players: Rudy Gay, Jamal Crawford, Andre Miller, Larry Hughes, Kerry Kittles, Vin Baker, Detlef Schrempf

Duds: Joe Alexander, Rafael Araujo, Chris Wilcox, DeSagana Diop, Shawn Respert, Todd Day

Yikes. The eight pick has produced some serious misses. Overall, there have been some solid role players drafted at eight, but there are a lot of guys who simply were not good selections. On average, the eight pick plays 8.2 seasons in the NBA, so there has been some longevity for several guys, but just two All-Stars.

The miss rate at the eighth pick is pretty real.

9th Pick

Best Players: Andre Drummond, Gordon Hayward, DeMar DeRozan, Joakim Noah, Andre Iguodala, Amar’e Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady, Stacey Augmon, Rony Seikaly, Charles Oakley, Dale Ellis

Duds: Patrick O’Bryant, Ike Diogu, Mike Sweetney, Rodney White, Ed O’Bannon

The ninth pick has produced some solid NBA players, including a likely future Hall of Famer in Nowitzki. On average, the ninth pick plays 9.1 years and has produced 10 All-Stars.

While there were some serious misses with the ninth pick, there have been plenty of home-runs to offset them.

10th Pick

Best Players: Paul George, Brook Lopez, Andrew Bynum, Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Jason Terry, Paul Pierce, Eddie Jones, Horace Grant

Duds: Austin Rivers, Jimmer Fredette, Saer Sene, Luke Jackson, Jarvis Hayes, Bison Dele

The 10th pick has not been kind recently. Austin Rivers might become something, but he was selected with a pick that’s produced huge flame outs. The No. 10 is a roll of the dice, at best. On average, the 10th pick plays 9.1 years in the NBA, but that’s skewed a little by guys like Pierce, Jones and Grant that had huge careers. The 10 has produced some All-Stars, eight of them to be exact. It has also produced Saer Sene, so there is that too.

11th Pick

Best Players: Michael Carter-Williams, Klay Thompson, J.J. Redick, Allan Houston, Robert Horry, Terrell Brandon, Tyrone Hill, Nick Anderson, Reggie Miller, John Salley, Kevin Willis

Duds: Cole Aldrich, Terrence Williams, Acie Law, Fran Vazquez, Andris Biedrins, Jerome Moiso, Bonzi Wells, Tariq Abdul-Wahad

The 11th pick historically produced some solid players, but recently it has not been nearly as fruitful. There have been some pretty flat picks over the last 10 years at the 11th spot, including the epically bad Fran Vazquez pick. On average, the 11th pick plays 8.2 years in the NBA, but that’s skewed by the heavy hitters taken at No. 11 in the 80’s and 90’s. The 11 has produced five All-Stars, none of them drafted after 1993.

12th Pick

Best Players: Thaddeus Young, Nick Collison, Etan Thomas, Greg Anthony, Mookie Blaylock, Muggsy Bogues

Duds: Hilton Armstrong, Yaroslav Korolev, Robert Swift, Melvin Ely, Cherokee Parks, Khalid Reeves, Harold Miner

The 12th pick has been plain awful. There is some potential from the most recent crop like Steven Adams and Jeremy Lamb, but it’s far from certain. On average, the 12th pick plays seven season in the NBA and has produced one All-Star (Blaylock). The No. 12 is a pretty scary pick historically.

13th Pick

Best Players: Thabo Sefolosha, Corey Maggette, Kobe Bryant, Jalen Rose, Dale Davis, Karl Malone

Duds: Julian Wright, Sean May, Marcus Banks, Marcus Haislip, Courtney Alexander, Keon Clark, Terry Dehere

There are two Hall of Famers and MVPs taken at thirteen, so that skews the averages a little. But the top of the board on 13 is downright average to scary. Bryant and Malone skew the average career on the 13th pick to eight years. The 13th pick has also produced three All-Stars (Bryant, Davis and Malone). But there are also a lot of solid duds at 13.

14th Pick

Best Players: Peja Stojakovic, Malik Sealy, Tim Hardaway, Dan Majerle, Clyde Drexler

Duds: Anthony Randolph, Fred Jones, Mateen Cleaves, Michael Dickerson, Maurice Taylor, Yinka Dare

It’s somewhat sad that you don’t find a player of real relevance drafted No. 14 until Stojakovic was drafted in 1995. The modern era at 14 is average to say it nicely. The 14th pick has played an average of 6.5 seasons and has produced four All-Star, none since Stojakovic. The dud factor at No. 14 is pretty high.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-are-teams-shopping-lottery-picks/

[Admin]

Good stuff Jay Bizzle thanks for posting. Sounds like we need to tank for a supertar

[Guest]

Good stuff Jay Bizzle thanks for posting. Sounds like we need to tank for a supertar

[Guest]

@Dolfan23

Remember this:

We will look back at this draft class in 3 years and realize it was O-V-E-R-A-T-E-D.
Mark my words!
Call it a woman's intuition! LOL!

I'll eat all the crow you guys will want to serve up if I'm wrong.

Edited by JayBirdHawk, 22 March 2014 - 08:29 AM.

• Dolfan23 and Ruckus like this

Might take less than 3 years - the hype got washed away quick.

[Admin]

@Dolfan23

Remember this:

We will look back at this draft class in 3 years and realize it was O-V-E-R-A-T-E-D.

Mark my words!

Call it a woman's intuition! LOL!

I'll eat all the crow you guys will want to serve up if I'm wrong.

Edited by JayBirdHawk, 22 March 2014 - 08:29 AM.

• Dolfan23 and Ruckus like this

Might take less than 3 years - the hype got washed away quick.

Umm that was 2 months ago no way do I remember back that far lol

[Guest]

Umm that was 2 months ago no way do I remember back that far lol

[macdaddy]

Good stuff Jay Bizzle thanks for posting. Sounds like we need to tank for a supertar

What's a supertar?

[Admin]

What's a supertar?

Well shit maybe I am a simpleton afterall lol

[Guest]

What's a supertar?

A supertar is what the league would give to the Hawks instead of a superstar. Thanks David Stern.

[hazer]

Supertars are overated.

[DrReality]

Here's hoping our system can make the player good/great

[kerrypack]

huh. dolfan is a woman or an equivalent?

[Admin]

huh. dolfan is a woman or an equivalent?

Huh? I guess you're referring to Jay Bird's God awful quoting she used earlier? That was her quote, not mine.

[Guest]

Huh? I guess you're referring to Jay Bird's God awful quoting she used earlier? That was her quote, not mine.

[Guest]

On 6/4/2014 at 0:20 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

@Dolfan23

 

Remember this:

 

We will look back at this draft class in 3 years and realize it was O-V-E-R-A-T-E-D.
Mark my words!
Call it a woman's intuition! LOL!

I'll eat all the crow you guys will want to serve up if I'm wrong.

Edited by JayBirdHawk, 22 March 2014 - 08:29 AM.

• Dolfan23 and Ruckus like this

 

 

 

 

Might take less than 3 years - the hype got washed away quick.

Well it's 3 years later, what do we think of this 2014 draft class now (yes I'm bored):

1	Cavaliers	Andrew Wiggins	SF	Kansas
2	Bucks	Jabari Parker	SF	Duke
3	76ers	Joel Embiid	C	Kansas
4	Magic	Aaron Gordon	PF	Arizona
5	Jazz	Dante Exum	PG	Australia
6	Celtics	Marcus Smart	PG	Oklahoma State
7	Lakers	Julius Randle	PF	Kentucky
8	Kings	Nik Stauskas	SG	Michigan
9	Hornets	Noah Vonleh	PF	Indiana
10	Magic	Elfrid Payton	PG	UL Lafayette
11	Bulls	Doug McDermott	SF	Creighton
12	76ers	Dario Saric	SF	Croatia
13	Timberwolves	Zach LaVine	PG	UCLA
14	Suns	T.J. Warren	SF	N.C. State

[Guest]

Damn - this class is full of injuries:

Parker, Embiid, Exum, Randle, Lavine.

No one from this class is 'the man' on their team.

[Guest]

Wiggins is the only one that's sorta lived up to the hype and even he has question marks.  I'm not sold on Embiid until I see him consistently play like 2 games in a row.  There are a lot of NBA players that could look great if they were able to pick 'n choose when they don't play.

Parker can't stay healthy.

Gordon is still an unknown after 3 years.

Ditto on Exum but he just looks so far away from contributing.

Smart: Solid role-guy but as a #6 pick?  Ew.

Randle: Eh, meh

Stauskas: Eh, he's all right I guess.

Actually, I'm kinda eh, meh on the rest of those.  I like Lavine though.  Seemed to be putting things together before the injury.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Wiggins is the only one that's sorta lived up to the hype and even he has question marks.  I'm not sold on Embiid until I see him consistently play like 2 games in a row.  There are a lot of NBA players that could look great if they were able to pick 'n choose when they don't play.

Parker can't stay healthy.

Gordon is still an unknown after 3 years.

Ditto on Exum but he just looks so far away from contributing.

Smart: Solid role-guy but as a #6 pick?  Ew.

Randle: Eh, meh

Stauskas: Eh, he's all right I guess.

Actually, I'm kinda eh, meh on the rest of those.  I like Lavine though.  Seemed to be putting things together before the injury.

I don't think Wiggins has lived up to the hype at all - he's not even the best player on his team.

Embiid has a 'slightly' torn meniscus - I'm thinking he's done for the year.  Philly will be caustious with him.

For as hyped as this draft was - it has been a major dud.  Not one player is the best player leading their teams anywhere.

[Guest]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

I don't think Wiggins has lived up to the hype at all - he's not even the best player on his team.

Embiid has a 'slightly' torn meniscus - I'm thinking he's done for the year.  Philly will be caustious with him.

For as hyped as this draft was - it has been a major dud.  Not one player is the best player leading their teams anywhere.

I think Towns is the better prospect but Wiggins is the better player right now.  It is atleast a legit discussion IMEO.

I think the plan was probably to shelf Embiid until that video of him dancing onstage at the concert came out.  Now it's just more negative pub if they claim he can't play all of a sudden.  They'll probably try to hide it amidst the hype when Simmons returns.  Like 2 ships passing in the night.  SIMMONS ARE BAK!!!! ... (oh yeah, Embiid out for the season).

I'd say the draft was a dud but only considering the multi-year hype.  It turned into a decent draft but folks were comparing it to the Jordan draft and the Lebron draft.  Those comparisons were slightly off.

[AHF]

Draft class has not lived up to the hype but looks like some very solid guys.  I break them down like this:

Potential All-Star Category

Joel Embiid

Jabari Parker

Andrew Wiggins

@Sothron's dream Nikola Jokic

Zach Lavine

 

Starter Category

Elfrid Payton

Rodney Hood

Gary Harris

Julius Randle

Aaron Gordon

Clint Capela

 

Starter / Plus Bench

Jordan Clarkson

TJ Warren

Marcus Smart

Jerami Grant

Jusuf Nurkic

 

Bench Contributors

Nick Staukas

Dante Exum

Doug McDermott

PJ Hairston

Dwight Powell

Kyle Anderson