Which FA will make you happy about this year?

[turnermx]

Hayward isn't a beast at defense. The best wing defender in free agency is PJ Tucker, and he could be cheap.

BaZemore may not be a bad option either

[Admin]

Hayward isn't a beast at defense. The best wing defender in free agency is PJ Tucker, and he could be cheap.

 

Trevor Ariza, he of 1st team defense votes, says what now? 

[capstone21]

He tries but he's way below the level of DMC or Ariza. 

I agree that they are better defenders...it is what they are known for.  Parsons is the better player though

[Admin]

I agree that they are better defenders...it is what they are known for.  Parsons is the better player though

 

Actually last year Ariza was the better player. Far better shot chart and worlds better defensively. 

[capstone21]

Actually last year Ariza was the better player. Far better shot chart and worlds better defensively. 

I agree that Ariza had a really good year last year.  One of the keys to Washington getting better.  I would be fine if we signed him (but not over pay him).   I don't think he is better then Parsons.

[Admin]

I agree that Ariza had a really good year last year.  One of the keys to Washington getting better.  I would be fine if we signed him (but not over pay him).   I don't think he is better then Parsons.

 

I think Parsons is probably the better all around offensive player but if you've got 2013 Ariza on offense with the defense he brings every night, he's definitely better. But Parsons has the youth on his side. I guess it just depends on what else you have around these guys and how much $$ it takes to get them. 

[AHF]

So you're saying that you don't care about defense I see... 

 

They would both require coaching up in that area but I think both are young enough and have the physical tools to improve.  I would put it this way:

 

I have more confindence in Parsons becoming a consistent defender than I do in Ariza becoming a consistent perimeter shooter.  Ariza has been a contract year shooter so far in his career.

[Admin]

They would both require coaching up in that area but I think both are young enough and have the physical tools to improve.  I would put it this way:

 

I have more confindence in Parsons becoming a consistent defender than I do in Ariza becoming a consistent perimeter shooter.  Ariza has been a contract year shooter so far in his career.

 

Do you really think that a guy can shoot that much better for an entire season just because it's a contract year? I mean I can understand giving more effort, playing better D, etc. but that much better of a shooter from all over the floor? Hell he was a better shooter than Parsons last year even. Maybe he's just finally put in so much work that he's gotten to the point of being a reliable shooter out there, which isn't uncommon as players get older. 

 

I'm sure both Monroe and Parsons can become better defenders with better coaching though.

[capstone21]

 

 PLEASE MAKE IT STOP !!!

 

 

NO GM IN THE NBA WANTS THIS GUY BUT THIS WACKO WONT SHUT ABOUT HIM !

 

 

 

Wow...u can just ignore him

[AHF]

Do you really think that a guy can shoot that much better for an entire season just because it's a contract year? I mean I can understand giving more effort, playing better D, etc. but that much better of a shooter from all over the floor? Hell he was a better shooter than Parsons last year even. Maybe he's just finally put in so much work that he's gotten to the point of being a reliable shooter out there, which isn't uncommon as players get older. 

 

I'm sure both Monroe and Parsons can become better defenders with better coaching though.

 

No just because it is a contract year.  I definitely believe in outliers, though, and Ariza's shooting last season was an outlier.  Even counting last season's .590 TS%, his career average is .524%.  That is a HUGE gap.  So I am pretty confident his shooting last season is not sustainable.

[Guest]

PLEASE MAKE IT STOP !!!

NO GM IN THE NBA WANTS THIS GUY BUT THIS WACKO WONT SHUT ABOUT HIM !

Lol. Wow, for some reason never thought coachx would yell.

[Guest]

Any of them could make me happy, it would just depend on the contract they receive.

Yes. I would like Parsons, Deng, Ariza or Hayward but at a reasonable price.

[AHF]

No just because it is a contract year.  I definitely believe in outliers, though, and Ariza's shooting last season was an outlier.  Even counting last season's .590 TS%, his career average is .524%.  That is a HUGE gap.  So I am pretty confident his shooting last season is not sustainable.

 

Here are a couple of recent seasons' jump shot charts for Ariza that both me:

 

2010-11

 

 

2011-12

 

 

So I really don't buy last season's shooting as being any kind of norm.

[Admin]

No just because it is a contract year.  I definitely believe in outliers, though, and Ariza's shooting last season was an outlier.  Even counting last season's .590 TS%, his career average is .524%.  That is a HUGE gap.  So I am pretty confident his shooting last season is not sustainable.

 

I don't agree with the argument you're trying to make here as if he took a massive leap all of a sudden after being a much poorer shooter his whole career. The truth is that he's been on a steady climb the past 7 years with only a minor dip in the middle.

 

Look at his 3pt %'s over the past 7 years.

• .278
• .319
• .334
• .303
• .333
• .364
• .407

If you take out that 1 year where he went down a bit, you can see he's either remained the same or gotten progressively better. 

 

Now, do the same with his TS%'s

• .568
• .544
• .488
• .487
• .496
• .538
• .590

Again he has a dip there in the middle but then starts climbing right back up.  Now, do I expect that he'll shoot 40% from 3 and have a .590 TS% next year? I don't, but I do expect he'll be in the very high 30's from 3 and in the high 500's in TS%. 

 

Parsons career average is 37% from 3 and .565 TS%.  Both #'s that I expect Ariza will at least hit. 

[Guest]

Would love to get Greg Monroe.

Haha. It's crazy coachx once again we disagree. It's like the draft all over again with Payne, one of your top guy vs one of my least fav guys.

The one free agent I hope we don't land is Monroe. Since he's been in the league I think he's been very average. He is not a center. It would be like adding yet another power forward to our endless glut of power forwards, Horford, Millsap, Payne. No more undersized power forwards who want the max and no more undersized shoot guards. If we are gonna get a center, gimme a center, not an almost center.

Ps Lin is crap. If you want Lin, you can come over to my rec league and be amazed at our talent out there as well. Nobody in the NBA actually wants Lin, they don't want his contract, his non clutch clumsy fumbling the ball a$$. He made such crappy plays against the Blazers in the playoffs it was a joke. Lin sucks, I never even watched his movie linsanity, he's a no talent a$$ clown like Michael Bolton. Just call me Mike.

[Admin]

Here are a couple of recent seasons' jump shot charts for Ariza that both me:

 

2010-11

 

ariza 10-11.png

 

2011-12

 

ariza 11-12.png

 

So I really don't buy last season's shooting as being any kind of norm.

I find it interesting that you only show those years but don't show the last 2 years, which show gradual progression. It also shows a shooter who is deadly from the corners, ala Bruce Bowen. 

 

2012-2013

 

2013-2014

[AHF]

I see these numbers differently than you do.  Here is my take on them:

 

 

Look at his 3pt %'s over the past 7 years.

• .278 - So bad you have to bench him.
• .319 - Terrible.
• .334 - Barely passable.
• .303 - Terrible.
• .333 - Barely passable.
• .364 - Solid.
• .407 - Excellent.

2 good years, 3 terrible years, 2 passable years.  

 

Now, do the same with his TS%'s

• .568 - Good
• .544 - OK
• .488 - So terrible you should bench him.
• .487 - So terrible you should bench him.
• .496 - So terrible you should bench him.
• .538 - OK
• .590 - Outstanding.

1 great year, 1 good year, 2 solid years and 3 terrible years.  

 

I don't have your confidence in him as a gunner.

[AHF]

I find it interesting that you only show those years but don't show the last 2 years, which show gradual progression. It also shows a shooter who is deadly from the corners, ala Bruce Bowen. 

 

 

If you are comparing him offensively to Bruce Bowen, then I certainly do have that level of confidence and more.  Bowen's career high pay was $4M.

[Admin]

I see these numbers differently than you do.  Here is my take on them:

 

I don't have your confidence in him as a gunner.

 

Your standards are ridiculous if you think 33% from 3 is barely passable. I'm not saying it's great but if you can't see that he's gradually gotten better almost every year over the past 7 years and gone from a "benchable shooter to excellent shooter" then I don't know what else to say to you. 

[Admin]

If you are comparing him offensively to Bruce Bowen, then I certainly do have that level of confidence and more.  Bowen's career high pay was $4M.

 

Yes 7 years ago, when he was 36 years old. Now adjust that for inflation and for Ariza's age and you see a guy well worth 7-9ish million per season.