If the 2016 cap projection holds true, re-signing Sap and DMC will inherently be prudent

[sturt]

I get it that fanatic keeps reminding us that there are substantial assumptions being taken for granted in the salary cap projections for 2016, and that there's reason for taking a slower conservative approach.

 

But, for the sake of this thread, let's just say that the conventional reasoning out there proves more accurate than not...

 

We get wrapped up in numbers first (e.g., $18.6m or $16.6m for Millsap) because that's the straightforward way to think about it.

 

But in fact, I think the more salient way to think about it is what portion of the whole salary cap pie does a given player take up? What is his percentage of the pie?

 

To wit... when Millsap signed in 2013, the salary cap was $58.6m, and so his $9.5m salary constituted 16.2% of our resources.

 

Compare that to if Millsap were to sign the early bird that many of us are crossing our fingers that he will. While that jump in salary amounts to a 74% increase in a vacuum, what does it represent in terms of the projected 2016 pie?

 

18.6%... a jump of only 2.4% from the last time he signed.

 

Now, granted, a 2015 contract maybe will include the full 7.5% pay raise for 2016, meaning that he could take up as much as 20% of the 2016 cap. Still, knowing that virtually everyone has agreed from inside and outside the organization that ATL got premium value the last two years for a signing that took up 16% of our space, it seems reasonable in context for that same player--yes, assuming the same production/contribution--to cost us as as much as 4% more in terms of cap space.

 

Thinking about DMC, we've had a lot of discussion about whether he's worth as much as $14m. The collective Hawksquawk conclusion seems to peg him at about $11.5m. Some don't want him to even get more than $8m.

 

So, let's plug those numbers into this portion-of-the-pie context, as we did for Sap... the salient question being, does it make a huge difference?

 

At $8m, DMC's contract would be 9% of the pie... at $11.5m, which again is reasonable per our collective wisdom... it's 13% of the pie... and at $14m, it's 15.7%.

 

Those are easier to digest numbers than the paradigm of the current cap, where the percentages would work out at 12% for 8m, 17% for 11.5m, and almost 21% for 14m.

 

So, I guess I'm just reminding us that it is possible that our 2015 lens through which we view the contacts that Sap and DMC may be offered may seem outlandish... but, through a 2016 lens, could end up looking like very fair deals in the long run.

Edited June 19, 2015 by sturt

[Guest]

The Millsap comparison is the last table in this: http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2015/6/16/8191291/2015-nba-free-agency-paul-millsap-atlanta-hawks

You're on the right track of normalizing a contract value instead of looking at the raw figure. Things get a little screwy if you normalize with the cap because of exceptions, but that's probably the simplest and best way to deal with it for the purposes of this board.

[AtlHomer]

Looking at compensation as a percentage of the salary cap is a good way to perform analysis and ultimately make business decisions. 

[thescout5]

I understand the Hawks if they resign Sap and DMC probably won't have alot of room to sign others but can someone explain how the Cavs can manage to bring back all their players considering a number of them will want raises in salary.Also no way they make the 67 million dollars figure. I just don't see how the Hawks have to pinch pennies and the Cavs seem to manage despite the cap rules. Now there is talk Mo Williams wants to join the Cavs. 

 

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/cleveland_cavaliers/

Edited June 19, 2015 by thescout5

[Guest]

I understand the Hawks if they resign Sap and DMC probably won't have alot of room to sign others but can someone explain how the Cavs can manage to bring back all their players considering a number of them will want raises in salary.Also no way they make the 67 million dollars figure. I just don't see how the Hawks have to pinch pennies and the Cavs seem to manage despite the cap rules. Now there is talk Mo Williams wants to join the Cavs. 

 

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/cleveland_cavaliers/

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/380693-cba-team-related-issues/

Use that as a guide to figure out how the Salary Cap works. It used to be stickied on the board for people to get a better grip on things.

[thescout5]

Thanks hawksfanatic!

[Guest]

Thanks hawksfanatic!

No problem. The short answer would be "Cavs have exceptions" but that should give you some insight on the exceptions (rights to their free agents, mid level exception, and a $10m nonguaranteed contract for Haywood). They aren't going to operate with any cap space. The Hawks probably will operate with cap space, which limits their options.

[thescout5]

Thanks for the info Hawksfanatic. Just reading all those rules you can tell it was done by many lawyers. If this then that and if not that this etc etc. Many different variables involved making itdifficult to understand. Should be here is the 67 million cap. A team can go over it to sign their own. Instead we have all these conditions which makes a person's head spin. I'll read up on the exceptions but it just seems like certain teams find ways to manuever the cap and others just do ther minimum to put players on the court. Anyway thanks for the feedback.

[Guest]

It's ALLLLLLLLLL lawyers. They're the worst (joking cc to @AHF )

Edited June 19, 2015 by hawksfanatic

[TheFuzz]

The cap is expected to jump again in 2017 I believe, so the deals will look even better then.

 

The other consideration though is that when the cap jumps next year, we won't have much cap space resigning all these guys. I don't know the exact numbers off the top of my head but we'll basically have zero cap next year after resigning these guys. We will have some exceptions though, I think.

[thescout5]

There's one way to create some cap space which won't be done but here it is. Trade Teague which opens up 8 million,have Sap sign for 16 million and Carroll probably 10 million. If Carroll refuses then bye bye. Replace Teague with the 15th pick point guard and Hawks receive the 6th pick or little lower and draft Winslow or Mario. Winslow can play both sg and small forward. The loss of Carroll while it would hurt Hawks could find someone in free agency below 10 million to play sf. If you keep Carroll then you still have a decent amount saved by trading Teague. Hawks could afford a big to play pf or center.

[thescout5]

Next yrs free agent crop isn't as good as this one. Other than Horford and Durant nothing special for a big.No young players in the market to be signed that I saw.  

[JTB]

Question:

how is it that we can go over the cap to resign sap but not DMC?

[JETSET]

There's one way to create some cap space which won't be done but here it is. Trade Teague which opens up 8 million,have Sap sign for 16 million and Carroll probably 10 million. If Carroll refuses then bye bye. Replace Teague with the 15th pick point guard and Hawks receive the 6th pick or little lower and draft Winslow or Mario. Winslow can play both sg and small forward. The loss of Carroll while it would hurt Hawks could find someone in free agency below 10 million to play sf. If you keep Carroll then you still have a decent amount saved by trading Teague. Hawks could afford a big to play pf or center.

And then we have 3 highly paid bigs and no starting PG?

[JETSET]

The cap is expected to jump again in 2017 I believe, so the deals will look even better then.

The other consideration though is that when the cap jumps next year, we won't have much cap space resigning all these guys. I don't know the exact numbers off the top of my head but we'll basically have zero cap next year after resigning these guys. We will have some exceptions though, I think.

We will have plenty of cap in the following season. Mack and scott will come off the books, we have full bird rights on Horford and we dont have the ability to venture far past the cap this season.

[thescout5]

And then we have 3 highly paid bigs and no starting PG?

Schröder ould start and the rookie at 15 would back him up.Right now Hawks have no bigs that can rebound,block shots so something must be done.

[MaceCase]

Question:

how is it that we can go over the cap to resign sap but not DMC?

We actually can go over the cap to sign Demarre it's just that the amount that the team could has become very unlikely due to how low it is.

[JETSET]

Schröder ould start and the rookie at 15 would back him up.Right now Hawks have no bigs that can rebound,block shots so something must be done.

The team would take a major step back under your scenario.  Guard penetration is of utmost importance and we would be completely reliable on Schröder who is hot-headed and inconsistent.

[thescout5]

Then perhaps Schröder should be possibly moved if he could net a player like Mario or Winslow.

[LamarHampton]

I would love to somehow get Mario on this team but i just don't know what we'd have to give up to move up to get him.