The Status QUO

[Diesel]

Hawks Content with the status quo

Hawks must Resist the status quo

I'm just going to look at a few quotes here:

 

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The core of their team is passing out of their prime, with Al Horford (30), Paul Millsap (31) and Kyle Korver (35) all on the back end of their careers entering next season. Horford and Kent Bazemore, both starters from this past season, are entering unrestricted free agency. Atlanta can re-sign both, but that would restrict them from adding another meaningful player.

 

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Is the goal for the Atlanta Hawks to make the playoffs and never have a realistic chance at winning a title? If so, then re-signing Horford, a local favorite who has never played anywhere else, is a no-brainer. Kent Bazemore has also spoken highly of his time in Atlanta, and along with the other pieces this team should be a playoff lock for next season, and favored for home-court in at least the first round.

But if the goal for this team is a championship — ostensibly the goal for every team every season — then there is little evidence to suggest this core can achieve that.

 

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Assuming a max deal for Horford would start at $25 million and adding a reasonable $12 million annual salary for Bazemore (might seem high, but free agency will be nuts), the Hawks would have practically nothing else to spend. Essentially the same crew that won 48 regular-season games would be back next year, only with the veterans one year older.

 

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The Hawks have several veterans on cheap and expiring contracts (Teague, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha). Those players could easily be flipped to contenders for future draft picks. And if Atlanta chooses to stink for a year, it would be silly not to listen to offers for Paul Millsap, whose market value will never be higher.

Outside of Millsap's $21.4 million player option, the Hawks' salary sheet is completely clean in 2017-18. Even if Bazemore is retained—and perhaps he should be, as young, versatile wings are hard to come by—Atlanta could have space to add multiple max contracts in just a year, as long as it settles mostly for placeholders this summer.

 

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The question is not whether Horford deserves a max contract for next season; it’s for the back half of a max contract. Players tend to decline, on average, in their age-29 season and every season after that. Horford would, theoretically, be getting worse as the contract got larger.

The last time Atlanta faced paying an aging player the max, they sent Joe Johnson to Brooklyn. Will they do the same with Horford and sign him to the max?

 

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Because Bazemore was signed to a two-year contract, the Atlanta Hawks only have his Early Bird Rights. This means they almost certainly have to sign him using cap space, restricting their ability to pursue other free agents.

 

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More likely, the Hawks need to look to trade one or the other, as they did at the trade deadline. Teams looking for a veteran point guard could find Teague attractive; they wouldn’t need to wait for him to develop, and his contract number for next season is a near steal in the new cap environment.

But he is a free agent in 2017, and teams won’t give up much for one year of a fringe All-Star point guard. Schröder would net more in a trade; he is young, with more upside, and would be a part of a team that traded for him for five or more years.

Again, their decision here goes back to their overall goal for the team. If they want to maintain the status quo, ensuring a playoff berth and an early exit, then Teague is the safer pick. Schröder could net a valuable piece via trade, ideally a wing to replace or back up Bazemore.

 

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If Bazemore’s contract number is too rich for Atlanta, they could mine the wing market for a better value. In addition to the aforementioned low-cost players, there may be players looking to take a smaller, one-year deal to recoup their value before the 2017 cap spikes again. Eric Gordon has had a rough few years in New Orleans and might pursue a “prove it” deal in a shooter-friendly system in Atlanta. Other options along those lines include Arron Afflalo and — gulp — Josh Smith.

The most wide-open options are if Atlanta goes for the full-on re-tooling. If they allow Al Horford and Kent Bazemore to walk they could have as much as $38 million in cap space. Dwight Howard could return home to Atlanta for less than his max number, seeking a better situation than Houston. Pairing him with a wing could provide a different look for a team centered around Millsap.

I applaud Josh Cornelissen of Hoopshabit. He has done a very good job of looking at our team and has written better than BleacherReport on the subject.  Kudos.

What does the Squawk think about these points?

[Guest]

We have all addressed  these issues on the squawk in some form or fashion, except prove it deals to guys like Gordon and Afflalo.

Nothing earth shattering  from my POV.

[Jody23]

20 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Hawks Content with the status quo

Hawks must Resist the status quo

I'm just going to look at a few quotes here:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I applaud Josh Cornelissen of Hoopshabit. He has done a very good job of looking at our team and has written better than BleacherReport on the subject.  Kudos.

What does the Squawk think about these points?

Very valid points, especially when it comes to figuring out the real objective of this franchise.  Nothing I've seen tells me that competing for a title is a priority.  The point about aging players declining makes Bud's argument about preserving continuity laughable.  If they keep this same core together, I think they'll experience another slide in the standings next year.

[Diesel]

21 minutes ago, Jody23 said:

Very valid points, especially when it comes to figuring out the real objective of this franchise.  Nothing I've seen tells me that competing for a title is a priority.  The point about aging players declining makes Bud's argument about preserving continuity laughable.  If they keep this same core together, I think they'll experience another slide in the standings next year.

Yep, that's the conversation that I think is lacking.

As Hawks fans, we all assume that winning a championship is our objective.  However, this offseason will prove conclusively what our real objective is?  I mean, we don't really know our ownership.   They look as though they want to improve the fan experience and improve the team's likability among free agents, however, will they do what needs to be done to get into the championship picture?

Here's three questions that should come up for discussion:

 

1.  Is Building around Horf a strategy that will get us closer to a championship?

2.  Is Coach Bud a championship level coach?

3.  What does blowing it all up do anyway?   (tease:  I have been a hawks fans for years.  We've never had anything good happen after blowing it all up).

[Lurker]

6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

1.  Is Building around Horf a strategy that will get us closer to a championship? No

2.  Is Coach Bud a championship level coach? TBD

3.  What does blowing it all up do anyway?   (tease:  I have been a hawks fans for years.  We've never had anything good happen after blowing it all up). You can substitute Atlanta sports fan in there and it'd be basically the same, heck, Georgia sports fan.

 

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

I'm going to try to understand the keeping Horford and building around Horf option.   Honestly, when looking at his numbers in a vacuum, it may be that we can build around him, but we would need some choice players.  Obviously, we would need a dead eye Shooter.   Obviously we would need a guy who can slash and defend.   Obviously, we would need a strong rebounder.

I think the thing that we have missed talking about thus far has been.. Tall Guards.   They don't make them anymore.  However, we get killed on swtiches.  Maybe because we don't have a strong defender in the paint.

I look at the GS Model.

They have tall Guards, A strong defender (Draymond), Slashers (AI, Draymond), a deadeye shooter (Splash Brothers), but they also have that defensive guy in the paint:  Bogut/Ezeli...

 

 

 

[Jody23]

2 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I'm going to try to understand the keeping Horford and building around Horf option.   Honestly, when looking at his numbers in a vacuum, it may be that we can build around him, but we would need some choice players.  Obviously, we would need a dead eye Shooter.   Obviously we would need a guy who can slash and defend.   Obviously, we would need a strong rebounder.

I think the thing that we have missed talking about thus far has been.. Tall Guards.   They don't make them anymore.  However, we get killed on swtiches.  Maybe because we don't have a strong defender in the paint.

I look at the GS Model.

They have tall Guards, A strong defender (Draymond), Slashers (AI, Draymond), a deadeye shooter (Splash Brothers), but they also have that defensive guy in the paint:  Bogut/Ezeli...

 

 

 

Building around Horford is a stategy that will result in more mediocrity.  Some will disagree, but I don't think he's a top 20 player in this league anymore.

[JTB]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

The most wide-open options are if Atlanta goes for the full-on re-tooling. If they allow Al Horford and Kent Bazemore to walk they could have as much as $38 million in cap space. Dwight Howard could return home to Atlanta for less than his max number, seeking a better situation than Houston. Pairing him with a wing could provide a different look for a team centered around Millsap.

Maybe $38 million is enough for Howard and maybe Batum? Im just pipe dreaming again.

Howard get 19m

Batum get 16m

3m left for another journey player similar to DMC or Bazemore

I can get with that but players are too greedy these day lol...dont blame them. But its not all about money when you making that much.

Edited May 13, 2016 by JTB

[Guest]

1 hour ago, JTB said:

Maybe $38 million is enough for Howard and maybe Batum? Im just pipe dreaming again.

Howard get 19m

Batum get 16m

3m left for another journey player similar to DMC or Bazemore

I can get with that but players are too greedy these day lol...dont blame them. But its not all about money when you making that much.

Think again.  Both Howard ($32 mil) and Batum ($23 mil)  will be getting max deals or close.  Howard's option next season is  $23.   He's not passing that up to take less.

These players aren't leaving that kind of money on the table with a rising cap.

[hawkman]

You can't build 'around' Horford. You can build with a guy like Horford all day every day. If Bud, Wilcox, and the owners don't get that, there will NEVER be an NBA Championship coming to Atlanta. Oh, and 'continuity' is the new WLOC.

[Diesel]

21 hours ago, Jody23 said:

Building around Horford is a stategy that will result in more mediocrity.  Some will disagree, but I don't think he's a top 20 player in this league anymore.

While I don't like his game anymore, I think I have to look at it from the perspective of what is it that we want him to do?

So he's pulling down less rebounds than Baze. YUCK!!  He's still scoring and opening the floor for scores and shooting a good percent.

[Diesel]

20 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Think again.  Both Howard ($32 mil) and Batum ($23 mil)  will be getting max deals or close.  Howard's option next season is  $23.   He's not passing that up to take less.

These players aren't leaving that kind of money on the table with a rising cap.

Batum is off the radar.   However, maybe we can talk a guy like Afflalo into a prove myself deal.  2 yrs 25 Million.   And maybe we can get Howard with a hometown discount of 26 Million with a player option next year.

 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

Batum is off the radar.   However, maybe we can talk a guy like Afflalo into a prove myself deal.  2 yrs 25 Million.   And maybe we can get Howard with a hometown discount of 26 Million with a player option next year.

 

So who else will not be back from our current team since in this scenario you have to clear $38.5 million in salary to sign them since we have to use strictly capspace to sign both.

[Diesel]

On ‎5‎/‎15‎/‎2016 at 11:09 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

So who else will not be back from our current team since in this scenario you have to clear $38.5 million in salary to sign them since we have to use strictly capspace to sign both.

Bazemore is the obvious gonner.

However, since we don't have his fullbird rights, that's expected.

I think whatever we do, we need to decide on Baze...I would easily offer the same money to Baze as I offer to Afflalo.. The question is would Baze take a deal at 2 years 25 Million with a PO after the first year?

I would happily keep Baze if he played at the level he played this past season (and progress from that).

I just think he's a SG and not a SF.   So I would seek a Sf... (You have heard my Jaylen Brown plan).

But if we could go into the season with this team:

DHoward/Eddy

Horford/Humphries/Scott

Millsap/Jaylen Brown

Baze/Korver/THJr

Teague/Felton

 

I would be pleased with our fluidity.   And we would just have to see what becomes of Horford and Sap.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

Bazemore is the obvious gonner.

However, since we don't have his fullbird rights, that's expected.

I think whatever we do, we need to decide on Baze...I would easily offer the same money to Baze as I offer to Afflalo.. The question is would Baze take a deal at 2 years 25 Million with a PO after the first year?

I would happily keep Baze if he played at the level he played this past season (and progress from that).

I just think he's a SG and not a SF.   So I would seek a Sf... (You have heard my Jaylen Brown plan).

But if we could go into the season with this team:

DHoward/Eddy

Horford/Humphries/Scott

Millsap/Jaylen Brown

Baze/Korver/THJr

Teague/Felton

 

I would be pleased with our fluidity.   And we would just have to see what becomes of Horford and Sap.

Can you put salaries to this?

[Diesel]

4 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Can you put salaries to this?

DHoward/Eddy

Horford/Humphries/Scott

Millsap/Jaylen Brown

Baze/Korver/THJr

Teague/Felton

 

My thinking is this: 

We have about 8.778 Million after capholds are applied.

1.  We renounce Hinrich.  That takes us to about 14.5 Million.

We lose  $2.78 Million (Dennis) and $1.01 Million (Moose) and Patter 0.9 = about 4.7.. so that's 19 Million.

I guess it can't be done.  Because with 19 Million, we don't have enough cash to sign Howard without a SNT.   It would require a SNT of Millsap.

Baze  (1st year of 2 year $24 million deal.) ~11.75 Million.

Humphries (1st year of a 2 year $9 million Deal) ~4.1425

I don't know if it holds the same value without Millsap.  Honestly, I like Millsap at the 4 more than Horford.

Now if Horford walks, we can sign Howard.

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Diesel said:

DHoward/Eddy

Horford/Humphries/Scott

Millsap/Jaylen Brown

Baze/Korver/THJr

Teague/Felton

 

My thinking is this: 

We have about 8.778 Million after capholds are applied.

1.  We renounce Hinrich.  That takes us to about 14.5 Million.

We lose  $2.78 Million (Dennis) and $1.01 Million (Moose) and Patter 0.9 = about 4.7.. so that's 19 Million.

I guess it can't be done.  Because with 19 Million, we don't have enough cash to sign Howard without a SNT.   It would require a SNT of Millsap.

Baze  (1st year of 2 year $24 million deal.) ~11.75 Million.

Humphries (1st year of a 2 year $9 million Deal) ~4.1425

I don't know if it holds the same value without Millsap.  Honestly, I like Millsap at the 4 more than Horford.

Now if Horford walks, we can sign Howard.

 

That's  why I  asked you to put the numbers. Didn't  think it worked.