Odds were 15% What are they now?

[Gray Mule]

After dropping the first two games in Washington, Atlanta's chance of winning

this first round was 15%.

Since that time, the Hawks have won two home games, reducing this to a best of

three games.  Has this changed the odds?

So far, both teams have won all their home games.  If this continues, the Washington

team has 100% chance, since they have two home games and the Hawks only one.

Can the "Cry Baby Hawks" manage to overcome the home court advantage and bring

home the round one title?  It seemed, in the first two games, too many things went

wrong for the Hawks. 

Shots refused to fall and too many free throws went astray instead of into the basket.

Kojack, the setter of screens, some of them actually legal, dominated.  Smith, the committer

of fouls, did his thing. 

Enemy territory, where things can and do go bad, is our target for tonight.  Can the Hawks

overcome their own mental problem about winning here and dig in and prevail?

Our point guards, saddled with 3 quick fouls each, prevailed in game four.  Washington's

one - two punch from their guards, prevailed in their scoring in all four games.  If we can

contain them somewhat and hold down Kojack, I like our chances, don't you ??

GO ATL HAWKS

[Thomas]

Definitely like our chances now. Hoping the Wizard's starters start showing fatigue by the probable game seven since already feel like our bench will stay on the plus side of the plus/minus in each game. Wouldn't have necessarily said that a couple of weeks ago but the bench started having some impact the last week of the season. Beal is almost averaging forty minutes a game and Wall is just a couple of minutes less. Hope that seriously catches up with them.

[marco102]

1 hour ago, Thomas said:

Definitely like our chances now. Hoping the Wizard's starters start showing fatigue by the probable game seven since already feel like our bench will stay on the plus side of the plus/minus in each game. Wouldn't have necessarily said that a couple of weeks ago but the bench started having some impact the last week of the season. Beal is almost averaging forty minutes a game and Wall is just a couple of minutes less. Hope that seriously catches up with them.

Now that there is only one day of rest between games, this may actually catch up to them.  I don't think it'll show up until the fourth quarter of each game.  Coach Bud has not played any starter more than 36 minutes per game which is great for the playoffs.  Now if the Hawks were going against Cleveland, I'd say play Milsap and Schröder 40 minutes a game. 

[Lurker]

I think Bud has figured out what Washington brings, but color me doubtful that it leads to more than a 6/7 game loss in this series:

1. Markieff is indeed, the major reason why Washington got better against Atlanta, really starting last year after the break. Take him away mentally and its still not a huge difference, even though Beal is how he was in the playoffs previously all the time now and Wall has progressed as a player.
2. He's fine with Washington going away from Wall to try to burn a bad defensive matchup because for the entire series, the worse that his defense has looked is with Wall running in transition.
3. If Markieff and Porter both struggle, Washington doesn't really have anywhere else to turn to.

I'm doubtful that it leads to more than a 6/7 game loss because the transition problems aren't just going away, and it's even an issue without Wall in. It got better in Atlanta, but the main reason it got better was because the team executed a heck of a lot better on the offensive end, not really because of anything it did defensively. Can it translate this to pressure packed situations on the road?

[marco102]

5 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

After dropping the first two games in Washington, Atlanta's chance of winning

this first round was 15%.

Since that time, the Hawks have won two home games, reducing this to a best of

three games.  Has this changed the odds?

So far, both teams have won all their home games.  If this continues, the Washington

team has 100% chance, since they have two home games and the Hawks only one.

Can the "Cry Baby Hawks" manage to overcome the home court advantage and bring

home the round one title?  It seemed, in the first two games, too many things went

wrong for the Hawks. 

Shots refused to fall and too many free throws went astray instead of into the basket.

Kojack, the setter of screens, some of them actually legal, dominated.  Smith, the committer

of fouls, did his thing. 

Enemy territory, where things can and do go bad, is our target for tonight.  Can the Hawks

overcome their own mental problem about winning here and dig in and prevail?

Our point guards, saddled with 3 quick fouls each, prevailed in game four.  Washington's

one - two punch from their guards, prevailed in their scoring in all four games.  If we can

contain them somewhat and hold down Kojack, I like our chances, don't you ??

GO ATL HAWKS

To answer your original question apparently they have a 32% chance of winning the series now.  Per the jackbutts over at PeachTree Whoops.  I'm glad I found Hawksquawk, because those dudes have gone completely off the edge with their negativety.  Win game 5 and that goes up significantly

[Thomas]

18 hours ago, marco102 said:

 I'm glad I found Hawksquawk, because those dudes have gone completely off the edge with their negativety.

Believe that Kris Willis guy has an Oscar bust of himself in a secret compartment in his master bedroom. What class act would argue and show dominance in a comment section about his own article. Unprofessional and also as you stated, a dismal attitude to boot.

[AUhawksfan]

If you read BSPN, we're now at 28% to win the series.  If we win at home, I think we have at least a 50% chance to win the whole thing.

[Thomas]

Flatline.

[benhillboy]

The Hawks got me amped after two good showings at home but I figured the series would be barely competitive: a 9 point average of victory for Washington qualifies I guess.  

I think a raucous home crowd fully engaged for the home team was the difference in those two wins at the Bulb. They're not used to that.  Had the Wizards had any national following and bandwagoners they would've closed out in 5.

A house cleaning in management and scouting is paramount.

Edited April 29, 2017 by benhillboy

[Thomas]

8 hours ago, benhillboy said:

A house cleaning in management and scouting is paramount.

Wouldn't get any hopes up but we'll see what happens. The bad PR/embarrasement of going out in the first round may put enough pressure on but once again I'll believe a shakeup only when It shows itself.