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Supes Hawks Draft Grades and Regrading - 2015-2019


NBASupes

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41 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Regraded for today: 9 with a 9.5 potential. He still hasn't peak his improved yet and still has a swing but he's hit a swing, has a 9.5 fit in Atlanta, and is one of the faces of the league. STEAL! I do not see him being a 10 fit because of his defense, I still can see him hitting his swing and improving overall. He could be a legit superstar MVP top 3-5 yearly in Atlanta. 

I think Trae has a chance to be a 10. Statistically he’s on some lists this past year with guys like Jordan and Oscar Robertson. 

43 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

10. (Superstar) This is James Harden

Trae doesn’t play great D but neither does Harden. Trae can be a 10 if Harden is a 10.

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7 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I think Trae has a chance to be a 10. Statistically he’s on some lists this past year with guys like Jordan and Oscar Robertson. 

Trae doesn’t play great D but neither does Harden. Trae can be a 10 if Harden is a 10.

It would be amazing if he hit 10. Considering he's at 9 in year two means it's very realistic but I've seen a lot of early highly rated players get stuck as well. Trae just got to keep improving. Harden also is a 13.9 WAR player with a 1.5 defensive RAPTOR. To say he's a bad defender just wouldn't be accurate. His defensive RPM is a positive and tied with D. Graham. I can't say Trae can be a 10 because Harden's a 10. There is a major gap at this moment. 

The benefit of Trae is his offensive impact is already insanely elite due to his scoring/playmaking. 

Edited by NBASupes
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2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

I would put an 8 for Bruno.

Yes siiiirr!!!!!

Sadly, both were overrated by me. That said, Bruno has two realistic swings to get there. Cam had four swings which he might get there for some of them and he has fit that's greatly in his favor. 

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Thanks for that very detailed post Supes!

Do you have a list of skills that are potential "swings" for young players?

Just curious to see how much breakout there is and how broad they are (like defensive impact versus help defense versus shotblocking / defending the rim, etc.).

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2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Thanks for that very detailed post Supes!

Do you have a list of skills that are potential "swings" for young players?

Just curious to see how much breakout there is and how broad they are (like defensive impact versus help defense versus shotblocking / defending the rim, etc.).

Believe it or not, hitting on swings is the biggest reason guys overachieved. Its things players always had the potential to do even in lower levels but they haven't perfected it yet. Some guys even have hidden swings where they showed no signs of doing at other levels. If you haven't been following John Collins closely, you wouldn't think he would have a shooting swing for example. Same with Harden and playmaking.

Current players on our team swings

John: offensive impact- Not close yet and shooting - he hit this swing. 

Trae: shooting and finishing.  He has hit on finishing. He showed flashes in college but had bad percentages. 

Cam has four swings. Shooting, playmaking, offensive and defensive impact. He has hit on none so far.

Kevin has two swings. Volume shooting and playmaking. He's hit on one. 

Bruno has shooting and playmaking. 

Hunter has two swings: offensive and defensive impact. He hit on both swings as a college player but the NBA is another level. 

Goodwin has two wings: shooting and defensive impact. Players at his level rarely hit on swings at this level. They usually hit on them before they got here which is why they are finally here. 

Because we are a PDS team, playmaking and shooting is very important to us and we look for potential to these types of things. 

Swings can be more valuable than potential but potential is FAR more reliable. 

Most players don't hit on their NBA swings. 

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I was more generally wondering how you come up with how many swings a player has.  For example, you posted a scouting breakout on Toppin earlier today listing more swings for him than you have identified so I'm not aware of a standard list of different swing categories or anything and wasn't sure about how general these are and how specific.  A category like "offensive impact" seems very broad and might be depending on improved playmaking, shooting, shot selection and aggression but are each of these also independent swings or maybe only playmaking and shooting, etc.

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35 minutes ago, AHF said:

I was more generally wondering how you come up with how many swings a player has.  For example, you posted a scouting breakout on Toppin earlier today listing more swings for him than you have identified so I'm not aware of a standard list of different swing categories or anything and wasn't sure about how general these are and how specific.  A category like "offensive impact" seems very broad and might be depending on improved playmaking, shooting, shot selection and aggression but are each of these also independent swings or maybe only playmaking and shooting, etc.

It's all about personal scouting at that point. My swings are only what I considered substantial which is why it's worth a .5. 

But others just feel it value to their floor, mid outcome, and ceiling. They don't use a points system like I do.

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In the last four years

 

My three biggest hits 

Ja Morant - Spot on,  a lot of internet scouts were down on him. I was sky high on him. 7.5/9.5 

Mikal Bridges - I was much higher on him. 7.5/8.5 and I believe I was spot on. He hasn't improved his shot as projected but everything on pace.

Jaylen Brown - Spot on. 5.5/8.5 with a couple swings. Hasn't hit a swing yet but is a 8.5 and close to hitting both.

My three biggest misses

Lonzo Ball 7/8.5 with four swings. He three of his four swings. Shouldn't he be a 10 potential and a 8.5 at the least. His offense didn't translate at all and while he did score 20/8 with exceptional efficiency on March and is a perfect fit with Zion, he hasn't been close to my projections. 

Marvin Bagley III - 7/10. Boy was I wrong. Injuries have hurt him but he doesn't look like a lock MVP right now at all. Maybe I need to revisit this one next year.

R.J. Barrett - I lowered his grade when he went to NY and was right to do it because it's a bad fit. Sadly, what is R.J. fit in the modern NBA is a legit and real question. One that even in a better fit might be difficult to answer. 

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10 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Marvin Bagley III - 7/10. Boy was I wrong.

Me too on this. I still have faith but bad start. I was fighting people about Bagley>JJJ but it’s not looking great for Marv.

 

10 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Mikal Bridges - I was much higher on him.

Me too.

10 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Jaylen Brown - Spot on. 5.5/8.5 with a couple swings. Hasn't hit a swing yet but is a 8.5 and close to hitting both.

Me too.

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I was off on Bamba and Josh Jackson also. I thought they would come in being better. Slow start for them too but both starting coming on a bit. Bamba kinda broke out in that one game against us and Jackson was getting more feel in Memphis. As long as he stays out of trouble he’s a baller he just has that swag. Journeyman or if he sticks he will be around.

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7 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

I was off on Bamba and Josh Jackson also. I thought they would come in being better. Slow start for them too but both starting coming on a bit. Bamba kinda broke out in that one game against us and Jackson was getting more feel in Memphis. As long as he stays out of trouble he’s a baller he just has that swag. Journeyman or if he sticks he will be around.

Hard to say we were off on Bamba. He is crazy talented and dominated us. We all knew Bamba would need time and I think we need to be willing to give him more time as he really improved this year metrics wise. 

Josh Jackson was a bust. I wasn't that high on him and had questions about him offensively from the jump. I can't say I hit on him because he's been a bust and I just projected a backup type but I wasn't off.

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On 6/12/2020 at 12:42 AM, NBASupes said:

Rating System:
Now/Potential Review of the Hawks:

Rating system:

5 - Average G-League player

5.5 - High end G-League player (two way) 14th-17th man

6 - 11-12th man (Spending time in the G-League, NBA player and has NBA ability)

6.5 - 8th-10th man (Quality rotational player)

7 - 6th -7th man (Borderline Starter)

7.5 (Starter) Very good player. Has a defined game and ability. Role player. Solid player.

8 - (Starter) Excellent player. High end role player. Champions level starter. Provides consistency. Gives confidence to the coaching staff. Could be supremely talented but lack the consistency needed to be a champions level starter.

8.5 - (Low end All Star) Super player. Makes everyone better. Coach can count on him. Seen as a franchise piece.

9 - (Legit All Star) Great impact. Reliable. Can carry units. Teams will offer him the max. A must to retain.

9.5 - (Legit All Star) MVP candidate, brings it at a rare ATG level. Has flaws but plays to his strengths to the 10th degree and is unstoppable.

10. (Superstar) This is James Harden, this is Giannis. This is Westbrook in his MVP season.

HOF - LeBron James, Tim Duncan, MJ, Kobe, Magic, Bird, etc. This is a legend. This player made a significant impact on the game. His success speaks for itself. You gotta earn HOF ceiling. Not even Zion just gets it.

Swing Skills - Swing Skills are worth .5 points which is significant.

Fit - 7 is - 1 point, 7.5 is -0.5, 8, 8.5, and 9 doesn't give you any points, 9.5 is worth 0.5 and 10 is worth 1 point. 

 

2015

Marcus Eriksson - Grade: NA

Rookie Grade 1st half: NA

Rookie Grade 2nd half: NA

Regraded for today: 5.5 - Elite world class shooter but he's not a NBA player overall. I could see him being a pretty good G-League player right now and we have signed guys to 10 days just as good as him but he's in the best situation for his game. 

Dimitrios Agravanis- Grade: NA

Rookie Grade 1st half: NA

Rookie Grade 2nd half: NA

Regraded for today: 5 - He never really developed into more than a role player at the European level. Not a NBA player whatsoever. 

 

2016

Taurean Prince - Grade: 7/8 - Looking back at it, I completely overrated Prince based on his highlights and Summer League. His realistic grade was 6.5/7.5 which is exactly where he ended up at. 

Rookie Grade 1st half: 5.5, like most Bud rooks, he didn't play much and needed more development. He played in the G-League. Most rookies take a major step back in the NBA in the 1st half just getting adjusted.

Rookie Grade 2nd half: 6.5, he played very well. Defense was decent. Offensively, he showed flashes that he could be the answer at SF. 

Regraded for today: 7, he's regressed a little bit in Brooklyn due to personnel and role. He still is a 7.5 talent but his production is closer to 6.5 than 7.5. He had one swing which was shooting, he reached it with us in his last Hawk season but seems to have lost it this year. He never became the defender I projected him to be out of Baylor. Year 1 defense was fool's gold. 

DeAndre' Bembry - Grade: 5.5/8.5 - Looking back at it, I completely overrated Bembry's potential based on his swings. I've learned with Cam Reddish, swings should NOT go into potential. His realistic grade was 5.5/7 which he hasn't reached yet. 

Rookie Grade 1st half: NA

Rookie Grade 2nd half: NA

Regraded for today: 6.5, his lack of shooting to even a below average level plus limited mental development has crushed Bembry's potential. I do think Bembry was loaded with swings skills and had a lot more potential than he has displayed. Bembry had three swings and hit none of em. 

 

2017

John Collins - Grade: 6.5/8.5 - Looking back at it, I completely overrated Collins' potential based on swings. His realistic grade was 6.5/7.5 with two swings. He hit one swing (shooting) and hasn't came close on the 2nd one which is offensive impact. He does get .5 for fit which means John is a 8.5

Rookie Grade 1st half: 6.5

Rookie Grade 2nd half: 6.5

Regraded for today: 8.5, His realistic grade was 6.5/7.5 with two swings. He hit one swing (shooting) and hasn't came close on the 2nd one which is offensive impact. He does get .5 for fit which means John is a 8.5. The issue is, John hasn't impacted the game like a 8.5, my guess is John maybe overrated by me with a 8.5. Maybe he's a 8 masking production of a 8.5. He is an offensive 8.5 and defensive 6.5 by my charts. Tough... 

Tyler Dorsey - Grade: 6/6.5 - I was spot-on with Dorsey. His realistic grade is no different.

Rookie Grade 1st half: 6

Rookie Grade 2nd half: 6

Regraded for today: 6, he never really improved in the NBA and he's now in Europe. He just didn't have the prerequisites he needed for the league. It's a miss but it happens a lot. There was a lot to like about Dorsey, he was a good college player. If you watched our first summer league, him and Trae was on the same level overall even though the level of talent gap was wider than the Sahara. 

2018

Trae Young - Grade: 6/9 - Looking back at it, I completely hit it on the head with Young. His realistic grade was 6/9 with two swings (elite shooting and finishing). He hit one swing (finishing) and hasn't hit elite shooting yet. He does get .5 for fit.

Rookie Grade 1st half: 5.5, he had one of the worst 1st halves in the NBA for awhile. Collin Sexton was worse but near him. The rest just never played that much if they were bad. 

Rookie Grade 2nd half: 8.5, he had a tremendous jump and even hit a swing. I've never seen someone improve so much in a short time but the talent was always there. 

Regraded for today: 9 with a 9.5 potential. He still hasn't peak his improved yet and still has a swing but he's hit a swing, has a 9.5 fit in Atlanta, and is one of the faces of the league. STEAL! I do not see him being a 10 fit because of his defense, I still can see him hitting his swing and improving overall. He could be a legit superstar MVP top 3-5 yearly in Atlanta. 

Kevin Huerter - Grade: 6/7.5 - He has an amazing rookie year. I didn't see it coming. He even hit on one of this two swings (playmaking and volume shooting) I graded him correctly, he just quickly improved.

Rookie Grade 1st half: 7.5

Rookie Grade 2nd half: 7

Regraded for today: 7, he regressed a lot this year but last year might have been an anomaly, he was on a track to be better than Bradley Beal and a number of other prospects who were superior to Kevin. I still think he can be an elite 6th man. Maybe his potential was overrated by me as a prospect. Maybe his potential is a 7 with him hitting the swing and being a 7.5 if everything works. He still hasn't hit his ceiling yet, I hope. 

Omari Spellman - Grade: 6.5/7.5 - Omari is a prime example of having the skills and talent while lacking work ethic, mentality, or the IQ to really be great. He had two swings (shooting and playmaking) and came nowhere close to either. 

Rookie Grade 1st half: 6.5

Rookie Grade 2nd half: 6.5

Regraded for today: 6.5 with the impact of a 5.5. Hasn't improved much. Mentally is not a pro yet. Just not a NBA prospect even if the skills and talent is there. 

2019

De'Andre Hunter - Grade: 7.5/8 - Spot-on. Highest floor in the class but was going to need at least a year to transition into a SF. Best position is PF right now where he's a 7.5 right now. He's more of a 6.5 at SF but still has a 8 potential at 3 positions which is amazing. He had three swings (Shooting volume, offensive impact, and defensive impact) Swings aren't exactly realistic but maybe he could reach one of them. 

Rookie Grade 1st half: 7

Rookie Grade 2nd half: 7

Regraded for today: No change. He played like a 7 but flashed 8 potential at the 3. His impact was more like a 6.5 but that's normal considering his minutes and the level of difficulty in his role. 

Cam Reddish - Grade: 7.5/9.5 - Looking back at it, I completely overrated Reddish potential based on his long term fit. He wasn't a 9.5 or 10 fit with us this year but he did end a 9 fit and flashed 9.5 fit. His realistic grade was 6.5/8.5 with four swings. Most in his draft class

Rookie Grade 1st half: 5.5

Rookie Grade 2nd half: 7.5

Regraded for today: 7.5, he ended the year extremely strong. He does have four swings (shooting, playmaking, offensive and defensive impact), realistically could hit three out of four. He also has a chance at being a 9.5 fit next year and a 10 fit if his defense becomes special. I've said it so many times, Cam can be our best overall player in time. Sooner than later. 

Bruno Fernando - Grade: 5/8.5 - Bruno floor was insanely low for a number of reasons but his ceiling is freakishly high. I did overrate his potential. It's a 7.5 but he has two swings (shooting and playmaking) and I believe he can realistic reach both. 

Rookie Grade 1st half: 5.5

Rookie Grade 2nd half: 5

Regraded for today: 5, he looked a lot better before John. John came back, made him play defense like a 4 and had Bruno looking like a dumb fool. Bruno showed flashes before JC of being a good defender down the road as a center. Bruno's potential is a 7.5 with two realistic swings. He was a good pick for us. We just need to develop him correctly. We wasted a year of his development this year due to our situation at center. 

Overall, we have drafted exceptionally well during the TS era. 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Dejay said:

Good topic, Supes.

I've gone to the confession pew regarding Trae over a year ago. I thought that he was overrated at Oklahoma and would get dominated in the pros because of his size; or lack thereof. And while he still has a long ways to go defensively, he's already one of the most unstoppable players in the league on the other end. Just how many of us predicted 30/9 in his second year with everyone and their grandmother draped on him like a $4 suit from Kessler's? In very short order, he's become the Neo of this franchise; The One.

Liked Hunter from the jump and while he had his rookie moments, I think he did pretty well considering the circumstances. I think that he'll improve on both ends of the court as he gets more acclimated to the pro game. And while I never saw him putting up MVP numbers, a Dan Majerie-type with some 'want to' isn't the worst thing that could've been added to the lineup. Hell, at least he's better than Jarrett Culver.

The most intriguing pick on the team I see right now is Cam Reddish. Again, I'll own this one like the Trae pick as I wasn't enthused at all with the Hawks drafting him. Little did I know that he had some serious core injury issues to deal with while at Duke and with Zion and Barrett hogging the ball, there was little room for him to shine offensively anyway. Until the 'rona broke out, he was on a steady incline offensively while already becoming the best perimeter defender on the team. Small sample size but his per-36 in March was 22/5 on 55% FG and 47% from deep. That's something that few folks outside of this forum and Hawks HQ even bothered noticing. If this young man keeps up the work ethic and want to as we've seen so far, he and Trae could potentially become one of the deadliest backcourts in recent memory. I foresee a lot of very uncomfortable moments being spent by Mavs' execs explaining this trade to Mark Cuban in the very near future as well as other team GMs who didn't draft Morant or Zion.

John Collins. 'Nuff said. Keep his medicine cabinet clean and just cut the check already. Can't wait to see what he does with Capela instead of (insert scrub here) riding shotgun with him.

I was happy with the Hunter pick, excited about Cam's potential, and glad we were able to secure Bruno in the 2nd. Jury is still far out but I have not been disappointed. I recall several posters on that other site ridiculing me for stating Hunter and Reddish could be as good or better than Barrett.

Most were surprised and thought Bruno was a great get in the 2nd.

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4 hours ago, Dejay said:

I foresee a lot of very uncomfortable moments being spent by Mavs' execs explaining this trade to Mark Cuban in the very near future as well as other team GMs who didn't draft Morant or Zion.

My guess is the conversations in Dallas will actually be pretty easy.  They will simply say "that was the cost of getting Luka" and Cuban will be fine with that, even if Trae + Reddish turns out to be significantly better.

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On 6/15/2020 at 6:44 AM, thecampster said:

 

 

This is pretty much what just about every sports pundit in the world was saying about Trae. Huge bust potential and possible All Star potential. Supes is just saying it in a different way. But if I am reading it right, 6.0 to a 9.0 and everything in between, that is exactly what he is saying.

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On 6/12/2020 at 12:42 AM, NBASupes said:

6 - 11-12th man (Spending time in the G-League, NBA player and has NBA ability)
9 - (Legit All Star) Great impact. Reliable. Can carry units. Teams will offer him the max. A must to retain.

Trae Young - Grade: 6/9 - Looking back at it, I completely hit it on the head with Young. His realistic grade was 6/9 with two swings (elite shooting and finishing). He hit one swing (finishing) and hasn't hit elite shooting yet. He does get .5 for fit.

I would definitely call a 11-12th man a bust if he was taken 5th and traded for Doncic ( even with a pick thrown in ). I am, as well as everyone else here. happy as hell he did not bust.

 

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