Play NBA Scout: Boom or Bust

[sillent]

I'd like to think I would be a pretty good NBA Scout especially from my past vision/picks as far as who would thrive in the nba.

I guessed right in guys like Giannis early when he was only 6'7 and I knew he was a Larry Drew guy but we lost Larry and Giannis to the Bucks. Of course a few yrs in the league and Giannis growing 4 inches has catapulted him.

I saw a lot of McGrady in Paul George before anybody was giving him a look since his rookie yr as well.

I would've/did sleep on Jokic and Kawhi. I didn't think they would be bust based on their picks but I didn't think they would become who they became. I slept on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as well.

Guys like RJ Barrett are just who I thought they would be.

For the Squawk though I'm interested to know/test our scouting game.

For players in the league 4yrs or less who would you consider to be stars, allstars or bust? 

5 pts for correct guess of stars bust/ minus 5 for incorrect guess.

3pts for correct all star guesses drafted within the lottery/ minus 3 if they don't make it.

1pt for borderline all star/minus 1 if they aren't close.

5pt extra bonus if you pick an allstar outside of the lottery.

10pt bonus if you pick a star outside the lottery.

 

We can exclude the 1st picks in the draft because they are the assumed consensus stars (unless you consider them as a bust).

Pick as many players as you like but remember they count with or against you based on the total number of correct and incorrect picks.

[sillent]

To start it off I think

Amen Thompson (star)

Auser Thompson (all star)

Jalen Johnson (star)

Onyeka Okongwu (star)

AJ Griffin (all star)

Trey Murphy III (borderline all star)

Kobe Bufkin (star)

Mohammed Gueye (star)

Scoot Henderson (star)

I'll add more later...

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by sillent

[sillent]

Anfernee Simons (star)

Tyrese Maxey (all star)

 

[sillent]

16 minutes ago, sillent said:

I'd like to think I would be a pretty good NBA Scout especially from my past vision/picks as far as who would thrive in the nba.

I guessed right in guys like Giannis early when he was only 6'7 and I knew he was a Larry Drew guy but we lost Larry and Giannis to the Bucks. Of course a few yrs in the league and Giannis growing 4 inches has catapulted him.

I saw a lot of McGrady in Paul George before anybody was giving him a look since his rookie yr as well.

I would've/did sleep on Jokic and Kawhi. I didn't think they would be bust based on their picks but I didn't think they would become who they became. I slept on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as well.

Guys like RJ Barrett are just who I thought they would be.

For the Squawk though I'm interested to know/test our scouting game.

For players in the league 4yrs or less who would you consider to be stars, allstars or bust? 

5 pts for correct guess of stars bust/ minus 5 for incorrect guess.

3pts for correct all star guesses drafted within the lottery/ minus 3 if they don't make it.

1pt for borderline all star/minus 1 if they aren't close.

5pt extra bonus if you pick an allstar outside of the lottery.

10pt bonus if you pick a star outside the lottery.

 

We can exclude the 1st picks in the draft because they are the assumed consensus stars (unless you consider them as a bust).

Pick as many players as you like but remember they count with or against you based on the total number of correct and incorrect picks.

To keep it completely fair pick as many players as you like but that number will be divided by your overall score. 

I will pull this out from the archives as time passes.

[ABH]

Mo gueye is going to be really good

[shakes]

14 hours ago, sillent said:

To start it off I think

Amen Thompson (star)

Auser Thompson (all star)

Jalen Johnson (star)

Onyeka Okongwu (star)

AJ Griffin (all star)

Trey Murphy III (borderline all star)

Kobe Bufkin (star)

Mohammed Gueye (star)

Scoot Henderson (star)

I'll add more later...

 

I'd bet my mortgage that JJ, OO, Kobe and Gueye never become stars.  

I'd bet everyone's mortgage that AJ will never be an all star in the NBA.

 

Love the homering though. Who would've thought that right now we have the ground work for the greatest team in NBA history?  Has a team ever had and all NBA player (Trae), 2 other all stars ( DJ, AJ) and 4 other star players (OO, JJ, Kobe, Gueye) not to mention Bogi and Hunter and Capela.    Can the Bird Celtics or Magic Lakers even come close to matching that?    What about MJ and the Bulls?  Only 2 all stars and no other stars.   They would get killed by the star lineup of OO-JJ-AJ-Gheye-Kobe.

 

 

[shakes]

14 hours ago, sillent said:

I'd like to think I would be a pretty good NBA Scout especially from my past vision/picks as far as who would thrive in the nba.

I guessed right in guys like Giannis early when he was only 6'7 and I knew he was a Larry Drew guy but we lost Larry and Giannis to the Bucks. Of course a few yrs in the league and Giannis growing 4 inches has catapulted him.

I saw a lot of McGrady in Paul George before anybody was giving him a look since his rookie yr as well.

I would've/did sleep on Jokic and Kawhi. I didn't think they would be bust based on their picks but I didn't think they would become who they became. I slept on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as well.

Guys like RJ Barrett are just who I thought they would be.

For the Squawk though I'm interested to know/test our scouting game.

For players in the league 4yrs or less who would you consider to be stars, allstars or bust? 

5 pts for correct guess of stars bust/ minus 5 for incorrect guess.

3pts for correct all star guesses drafted within the lottery/ minus 3 if they don't make it.

1pt for borderline all star/minus 1 if they aren't close.

5pt extra bonus if you pick an allstar outside of the lottery.

10pt bonus if you pick a star outside the lottery.

 

We can exclude the 1st picks in the draft because they are the assumed consensus stars (unless you consider them as a bust).

Pick as many players as you like but remember they count with or against you based on the total number of correct and incorrect picks.

 

to do this right you should also deduct points from the score for incorrect answers.    Otherwise we just get submissions like yours where you just throw every name you can think of at the wall and wait to see what sticks.  hardly impressive scouting..

[sillent]

22 hours ago, shakes said:

I'd bet my mortgage that JJ, OO, Kobe and Gueye never become stars.  

I'd bet everyone's mortgage that AJ will never be an all star in the NBA.

 

Love the homering though. Who would've thought that right now we have the ground work for the greatest team in NBA history?  Has a team ever had and all NBA player (Trae), 2 other all stars ( DJ, AJ) and 4 other star players (OO, JJ, Kobe, Gueye) not to mention Bogi and Hunter and Capela.    Can the Bird Celtics or Magic Lakers even come close to matching that?    What about MJ and the Bulls?  Only 2 all stars and no other stars.   They would get killed by the star lineup of OO-JJ-AJ-Gheye-Kobe.

 

 

I could use some mortgage money. Would hate to take it from a fellow Hawks fan.

I hope it's clear I didn't say they all would reach these levels at the same time or in the next yr. Just said in their careers.

Teams have had that before (OKC) is the best example with KD, Russ, Harden, Ibaka, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony 

Kevin Martin at the time was fringing which is why they traded him for Harden. Dennis Schröder, Victor Oladipo

And they now host the likes of guys like SGA, Josh Giddey, Chet Holgrem.

Like us they've drafted well and/or have had plenty stars on the team. Problem with them is they've struggled to keep them.

We have an opportunity to keep a lot of ours and they are all on good timelines to develop together so yes I do believe we have a greater team than most can imagine coming into this season.

Will they make young mistakes, of course but they are more heady than most players their age which I think this yr will prove.

 

ps I would mark Josh Giddey and Chet as 2 more players on my list but it would be too easy.

I guess I'll add Jabari Smith jr (all star), Mark Williams (fringe all star) and wait to include a few more names for now.

Edited July 15, 2023 by sillent

[sillent]

22 hours ago, shakes said:

 

to do this right you should also deduct points from the score for incorrect answers.    Otherwise we just get submissions like yours where you just throw every name you can think of at the wall and wait to see what sticks.  hardly impressive scouting..

I agree which is why I did. If you're saying this though maybe I didn't explain properly but negative 5 for wrong guesses of stars or bust. Same as positive 5 for right guesses in that category for players drafted in the lottery.

Minus 3pts for wrong guesses of allstar drafted in the lottery. Plus 3 for correct guesses

Minus 1pt for fringe allstars/ plus one for fringe allstars drafted in the lottery.

And to add for outside the lottery -2 for wrong all star guesses and -4 for wrong star guesses. 

If someone can come up with a numbering system based on draft position tiers that's good or better I'm up for that too.

Not necessarily like a 17th pick gets more than a 15th because GM's get it wrong too but if y'all tiered it 15th - 20th pick with a point system and so on I'd be up for that. Of course the further picked in the draft the more points. Like a Jokic or Bol Bol pick for instance.

 

[Spud2nique]

On 7/13/2023 at 4:02 PM, sillent said:

For players in the league 4yrs

So 2020 draft and beyond? 

[Spud2nique]

2020 class:

 

OO- star

Obi Toppin - BUST ( @kg01 )

Devin Vassell - all star

 

 

 

2021 class:

Alperun Sengun- all star

Cam Thomas - all star

 

 

2022 class:

Jabari Smith - all star

Keegan Murray- star

Shaedon Sharpe- star

AJ Griffin- star

Walker Kessler- all star 

 

2023 class:

Brandon Miller - star

Scoot Henderson -star

Jordan Hawkins - all star

Maxwell Lewis- all star (or extremely close)

 

Didn’t really do the busts. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sillent]

43 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

2020 class:

 

OO- star

Obi Toppin - BUST ( @kg01 )

Devin Vassell - all star

 

 

 

2021 class:

Alperun Sengun- all star

Cam Thomas - all star

 

 

2022 class:

Jabari Smith - all star

Keegan Murray- star

Shaedon Sharpe- star

AJ Griffin- star

Walker Kessler- all star 

 

2023 class:

Brandon Miller - star

Scoot Henderson -star

Jordan Hawkins - all star

Maxwell Lewis- all star (or extremely close)

 

Didn’t really do the busts. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Me either Not because there won't undoubtedly be any but because I like focusing more on the positives.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, sillent said:

Teams have had that before (OKC) is the best example with KD, Russ, Harden, Ibaka, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony 

 

But all of those guys were high lottery picks, outside of Ibaka.

We're talking about our mid to low 1st round picks becoming stars . . . which has about an 85% chance of NOT happening.

If any of our guys turn out to be solid starters, that would be fantastic.  We've at least had that over the years.

Just looking back over the past 30 years of Hawks drafted 10 or below, these were the guys who became solid starters or contributors

• Kevin Huerter
• John Collins
• Dennis Schröder
• Jeff Teague ( All-Star ) . . . but only because the team was winning at a very high level
• Josh Smith
• Jason Terry
• Alan Henderson
• Mike Scott?

That's the list.  That's it. 

So when you talk about "Stars" . . we need a definition of what a "star" is.  Especially if there is a difference between a "star" and an "all-star".

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by TheNorthCydeRises

[Spud2nique]

19 minutes ago, sillent said:

Me either Not because there won't undoubtedly be any but because I like focusing more on the positives.

Haha ya I felt bad saying so and so will turn out to be a big flop  

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Alan Henderson

{paging Dr. Henderson to the emergency room, Dr. Alan Henderson, please report to the emergency room}. 

[Spud2nique]

6 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

So when you talk about "Stars" . . we need a definition of what a "star" is.  Especially if there is a difference between a "star" and an "all-star".

Ya I had trouble with this too. We need a 1-10 scale, this one is too broad.

[sillent]

25 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

But all of those guys were high lottery picks, outside of Ibaka.

We're talking about our mid to low 1st round picks becoming stars . . . which has about an 85% chance of NOT happening.

If any of our guys turn out to be solid starters, that would be fantastic.  We've at least had that over the years.

Just looking back over the past 30 years of Hawks drafted 10 or below, these were the guys who became solid starters or contributors

• Kevin Huerter
• John Collins
• Dennis Schröder
• Jeff Teague ( All-Star ) . . . but only because the team was winning at a very high level
• Josh Smith
• Jason Terry
• Alan Henderson
• Mike Scott?

That's the list.  That's it. 

So when you talk about "Stars" . . we need a definition of what a "star" is.  Especially if there is a difference between a "star" and an "all-star".

 

Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green (to an extent), shoot SGA, Donovan Mitchell, Paul George and Pierce, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard. A lot of these players could be considered franchise players and none of them were top 3. Saying that to say it doesn't necessarily matter where players are picked it matters how good they become and where they land in many cases so they can develop properly.

 

In bold are a few picks that I loved off bat. Most of them came from Travis (you excluded Trae but I get it). Meaning a competent GM/scout gives us a better chance at successful picks than GM's that aren't so competent.

Landry Field's has shown he's learned from Travis and in my opinion is even taking it a step further by the character of guys he's added to our already skilled/great character group.

One thing I've learned in life is many struggle to see greatness when its right in front of them. Doesn't mean it's not there and it's usually always revealed in time.

So we'll

 

[sillent]

40 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Ya I had trouble with this too. We need a 1-10 scale, this one is too broad.

To me stars are perennial all stars that most people know even casual fans or non fans.

Giannis, LBJ, Kawhi, AD, Durant, Kyrie, Tatum, Embiid, Jokic, Westbrook, PG, Luka, DMitch, CP3, Harden, Dame, Curry, Ja Morant, Trae....

People that can change a franchise instantly (game changer), best at what they do (leader in multiple categories). People who others know who you're talking about instantly without using their full name or real name at all.

People that all 30 teams in the league would give great offers for or would happily take if they're available.

Zion for all his off court "troubles" is still a star which is why no matter how much trouble he's given New Orleans they'd risk hanging on to him before just giving him away.

Stars whether hated or loved usually both their talent and game is undeniable and game changing. Wemby for instance is one walking in the nba door. Now he just has to prove it on the floor to keep that title.

 

If we have to put a number on it (1 - 10) than they probably aren't true stars. 

Edited July 15, 2023 by sillent

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, sillent said:

Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green (to an extent), shoot SGA, Donovan Mitchell, Paul George and Pierce, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard. A lot of these players could be considered franchise players and none of them were top 3. Saying that to say it doesn't necessarily matter where players are picked it matters how good they become and where they land in many cases so they can develop properly.

 

In bold are a few picks that I loved off bat. Most of them came from Travis (you excluded Trae but I get it). Meaning a competent GM/scout gives us a better chance at successful picks than GM's that aren't so competent.

Landry Field's has shown he's learned from Travis and in my opinion is even taking it a step further by the character of guys he's added to our already skilled/great character group.

One thing I've learned in life is many struggle to see greatness when its right in front of them. Doesn't mean it's not there and it's usually always revealed in time.

So we'll

 

 

I excluded Trae and Horford, because those guys were top 5 lottery picks.

I also thought you were only talking about Hawks draft picks, and not the entire draft overall.  If we get 5 "stars" out of this draft, that will be great.  I don't think this was a particularly deep draft, so we'll see.