Why the John Collins deal defines this team's owner's "direction" (and thus the franchise's most likely status for this era)

[sturt]

 

• You had a player who seemed overpaid by almost anyone's analysis, and who, by keeping him and extending DJM, would have forced the owner to pay some tax (... as I recall... I haven't looked at it since last summer so feel free to double-check my memory, but I think that's correct).
• You had a player coming off a hand injury that at first had seemed to have had career-altering implications.

 

• You also had a player whose shooting stats began to trend significantly better after the 2022-23 ASG break, making it altogether plausible that that trend might continue (... and it did... his TS% and EFG% both rebounded from career lows to practically the same as his career averages in those stats, and he went from posting 29.2% in 3P% last season to his 3rd best, 37.1%)
• You also had a player going into his late 20s--generally considered the prime years of any given legit NBA player's career.
• You also had a player who was widely considered the team's most consistent good attitude and voice of positivity.
• You also had a player who the new head coach had seemed to go out of his way at times last season in post-game interviews to recognize for his key plays at key times... iow, not at all someone the head coach would have seemed to have preferred to see cut from his cache of weapons.
• You also had a player who seemed to be asked to do two different things by two different head coaches in 2022-23
• You also had a player at a position where the 2023-24 team's depth chart last off-season was already looking to be thinner than anywhere else on the court, and thus, it would be really important to replace him to some degree if you really believed in this team's taking a step forward in 2023-24 over the previous season. (Which didn't happen, of course.)

 

Teams that are prepared for hamster status (aka, Owner's ATM status)... they get rid of players like John Collins.

They are willing to take two steps backward on the court, if it means one step forward on the spreadsheet.

Teams that are trying to really and truly and God-honestly compete and put themselves in a better position for success come playoff time... they don't do that.

They are willing to take two steps backward on the spreadsheet, if it means one step forward on the court.

 

That's the jumping off point to this second conclusion...............

As we ended the 2022-23 season, looking at how that roster played the conference's best team in those 6 playoff games... this team's best chance to take one step forward on the court was plausibly

1. to mature in terms of running the new widely-respected head coach's offense and defense, and in that same vein, to mature in terms of chemistry,
2. to see some of the youth mature in their capacity to affect games, Jalen chief among them
3. to enjoy as-good-or-better health, and in that same vein, to avoid losing any of the talent inventory you'd enjoyed for 22-23.

(Not as important but icing on that cake, if somehow the owner would spring for another solid candidate for playing time or if the GM could luck out with a rookie contributor out of the draft.)

 

This franchise will someday get to an NBA Final, and someday will win an NBA Final. There are only two reasons why that would happen during the Tony Ressler era if it ever happens.

Either, (a) a lead owner very different from the one we've come to know these 8 years emerges.

Or, (b) Landry (or his successor) will prove to have obtained a future Hall of Famer whose impact on the team will be of Larry Bird/Magic Johnson/Michael Jordan proportions.

 

What percent do you put the likelihood of "a" at?

What percent do you put the likelihood of "b" at?

Add those two numbers.

That exercise will make some feel better, having at least quantified now their reason for expectations and hope on the horizon.

To the rest, fwiw, maybe nothing... I'd just encourage you to consider the kids on your street or otherwise somewhere within your orbit who could really use an adult of your stature and character in their lives to make a difference. Plug in through B&G Clubs, or the Y, or Scouts, or your church's youth group or whatever. Or if kids aren't your thing, what else are you passionate about that could make the world a slightly better place someway somehow. Reallocate your time and attention, as well as money, to those kinds of things that tend to make a person feel fulfilled.

[NBASupes]

The one area I see your logic is no replacement for JJ since JJ replaced JC. 

That said, JC contract was terrible and he wasn't producing at a high level. He had to go

[sturt]

4 hours ago, NBASupes said:

He had to go

Yes, he did have to go...

Although we didn't know it at the time last June, the status of that Schroedinger's cat was that our owner fit the latter of the two options...

 

4 hours ago, sturt said:

Teams that are prepared for hamster status (aka, Owner's ATM status)... they get rid of players like John Collins.

They are willing to take two steps backward on the court, if it means one step forward on the spreadsheet.

Teams that are trying to really and truly and God-honestly compete and put themselves in a better position for success come playoff time... they don't do that.

They are willing to take two steps backward on the spreadsheet, if it means one step forward on the court.

That's why he had to go.

[sturt]

16 hours ago, sturt said:

What percent do you put the likelihood of "a" at?

What percent do you put the likelihood of "b" at?

Add those two numbers.

Answering my own questions...

A (APR reinvent himself?) = 1

8 years is a long time to get to know someone in sports years. And as people get older, in general, they tend to be so much less interested in self-assessment and to make dramatic changes. It's something close to 1%, imo.

B (LF somehow drafts or acquires a Godsend talent?) = 1 if we're just looking at this off-season... but with time, and thus more opportunity, I'd say that grows by maybe 1-2% every year for maybe 5 years, until cresting and then declining because it becomes less likely he has a GM job at all.

Even where I grew up, they taught me that 1 + 1 = 2.