Diesel says: Hawks can get Orlando's Pick....

[Diesel]

I have peaked into the future and this is what i see...

Orlando is not interested in Okafur or Howard or any early lottery picks this year. What Orlando is interested in is Shaqdiesel/Tmac/ and Phil Jackson.

Can't you see the waves moving together...

The Magic always make big moves... and this is one....

Orlando needs to drop Salary now so that they can insure that they have enough to sign Shaq and Tmac together....

So here's what we can do for them:

Hendu/Philly's 2007 1st to Orlando for possibly #1 overall/Howard/Gaines.

Why Diesel Why???

It's simple... It keeps costs low. They lose Howards long contract and Gaines' contract. That's a net loss of about 7 million dollars in 2005-2006. They will lose Hill's contract either by opt out or force out. That's 15.7 million more. They have a team option on Drew and they will probably send him to FAcy...

NOW.. .They have only 15.7 million in contracts... Sign Shaq for probably 25 Million and part ownership... Let him finish out his playing career with the Magic for 3-4 years. They are still only 40 million in. They have room for another free agent or 2 (about 15 million)... Phil Jackson really doesn't do the player development thing so this makes lots of sense.

[Admin]

As usual the "overly full of himself one" peered into the future and came away with some great comedy.

If you think for one second that we can get the top overall pick and a solid vet plus a young highly talented player or even close to it for that garbage just so a year from now they have the money to go after Shaq and keep T-Mac you are nuts.

Why Dolfan why? Well because they can do far better for a lottery pick player from last year, solid veteran PF/C, and the top overall pick this year who can contribute to them right away and for another 10 years or so after Shaq is out of this league.

[Diesel]

Wow Dol....

It's interesting... Didn't we give up Rasheed Wallace for..... NOTHING? oh, my bad a 17 pick in the draft and nothing.... BUT Capspace...

It's interesting because could you see the logic and that move and not see the same logic in getting Shaq?

What's there for them to get anyway... Have you looked over their history in the draft? I mean, Mike Miller is the best peak that they have made in a long time. After him you have Hunter, Gaines, and other guys who will do nothing but suck up 4 years worth of salary and go home.

I would think that it would be better betting to go after Shaq (who can make any franchise an immediate contender) than to waste time with anybody else...

Plus mister so informed... Have you heard Tmac Lately??? IF Orlando don't go after Shaq, they can see him walk away the same way Shaq walked away....

But NO.. You think that the magic are in search of the NEXT Reece Gaines....

That's the great Comedy...

[PushaC]

I could see it happening

[ATLien_]

Diesel I want to be with you on this,but I think I'll see hell freeze over before Orlando gives the # one pick away for nothing. Even if all that you said came to past and shaq did come to orlando; he would be over the hill.

Orlando takes all the risk in this deal, for they have the most to lose and uncertainty. The only way you trade a assurity for a uncertainty is if there is a higher return. What could yield a potentially higher return then the #1 pick? This would just not be a solid business decision.

[Admin]

You DO NOT trade the top pick in the draft (a potential big time star player like Okafor can be), plus a 1 year removed lottery pick big PG that has a future in this league in Gaines, plus a solid contributing PF like Howard all for an overpaid highly underproducing PF that will give them nothing production wise and still has a year remaining on his contract and a future mid round draft choice. Not only do you not do that, but you also dont do that trade to go after a guy who MIGHT sign with your team and who LIKELY only has 3-4 years remaining in him after this season. Not only that, but you certainly dont give that player a max contract like it would take and you certainly dont give a longterm max contract to a player with a bad back and other physical problems like McGrady. 3 years ago this deal would be a no brainer........if they had like the 5th or worse pick this year you might also make this deal......but nobody in their right mind would make that deal under these present circumstances........you are just once again showing why you could never be a GM in the NBA.

[Packfill]

I agree. It would make alot more sense for them to Draft Okafur, play him for a year and then trade him if they have a shot at signing Shaq. If Okafur is decent as a rookie they could do a heck of alot better than Henderson. Heck, they could do a sign and trade with LA.

The Atl/Orl trade makes no sense.

[Diesel]

Obviously, it would be very difficult to get Shaq/Tmac if you have Howard's 5+ million, Reece's 1.5 Million, and a first rounder taking up about 3.5 million.

However, why not trade all that for Capspace and a future first...

BTW, Philly is getting No better and NO one will trade for Iverson... So in 2007, that #1 will probably be a lottery pick....

This draft isn't strong for right now talent. I mean, all that there is is Okafur and his Back is a huge question mark...

Finally... Tmac has made it clear that if you don't do what is needed to get Shaq, he's walking...

Again... Why not?

If it's 100% that you can get Shaq/Tmac, why not?

[Diesel]

Yeah, but if they did that, they would not have any money for next years offseason.....

Face it...

Nobody will take Old man Howard and his Big Contract without getting something in return. That's either a draft pick or getting rid of a bad contract....

Now... Let's ask some important questions... THIS IS FOR YOU DOL,,,

How did the Lakers get Shaq in the first place?

They gave up Vlade for #13 Kobe....

Let's check your Magic History.....

How did the Magic get Tmac in the first place??

They traded Penny, Nick Anderson, D. Scott, Bo Outlaw, Ben Wallace, Chucky Atkins, and a slew of other guys that they drafted for future picks... In order to make room for Tmac/Hill.....

So...

Why do you think they won't try that winning strategy once again to get the most dominant player in basketball who wants to finish his career in Orlando... With Phil as his coach and Tmac as his sidekick???

[johnnyde]

Shaq sets own market value

By Terry Brown

NBA Insider

Tuesday, May 25

Updated: May 25

12:21 PM ET

The bidding for Shaquille O'Neal, if we are to believe the latest reports, begins at $30 million per season.

Do I hear $31?

"His agent isn't dumb," said NBA salary-cap specialist Larry Coon. "He's one of the sharper guys out there and he knows that it's perfectly feasible for the Lakers to pay Shaq this amount of money and more and not change any of the personnel around him. No matter what amount they pay him, they're going to be over the cap. So that's not going to affect any future acquisitions. It's the luxury tax they have to worry about but Shaq can certainly command this amount."

As ludicrous as these numbers may sound to you and me and the next guy waiting to make the balloon payment on his second mortgage, let's make it even more absurd by stating that the bidding cannot even begin for two more seasons when his contract completes and, at this asking price, there is only one qualified bidder.

"He'll be making about $30 million dollars at the end of his contract," Coon said. "So a team can pay him up to 105 percent of that amount provided they have the cap space."

And considering that the cap is at $43.8 million this year, how many teams do you really think are out there that have only $12.3 million in salary?

You're right. The answer is none.

But before we get too far with the Los Angeles Lakers monopoly, let's put a little more emphasis on Mr. Coon's point.

As just mentioned, the cap this year was at $43.5 million. The Lakers' payroll for this season is at $65.5 million. Even without Shaq on the books, the team is at $39 million, giving the Lakers all of $4.8 million in cap space.

That's it. Enough to sign someone like Michael Olowokandi or two Joel Przybillas or three Jake Tsakalidases.

Cut Shaq's current salary of $26.5 million in half and the Lakers are still $8.4 million over the cap.

Cut his salary by 75 percent, paying the big guy $6.6 million, and the Lakers are still $1.8 million over the cap.

Cut his salary by 90 percent, to $2.6 million, and you've now created $2.2 million in cap space and pissed off one heckuva big fella for the opportunity of signing the likes of DeSagana Diop.

In other words, any reasonable pay cut for Shaquille O'Neal is not going to affect the Lakers' ability to attract future free agents because the Lakers can still only pay them mid-level exceptions because they will still be over the cap.

Shaq knows this.

His agent knows this.

Laker owner Jerry Buss knows this as well, but is hoping inaccurate articles in the local and national press put enough public opinion pressure on Shaq to take a pay cut.

"At some point, these players are only competing against themselves," said Coon. "No other team can even come close to these figures . . . but we have to remember that Dr. Buss isn't anywhere close to being one of the richer owners in the NBA. In fact, he's not even on the Forbes list. While other owners have other income, the Lakers are all he has. The franchise may be worth about $400 million but that's all he's got."

So this is one auction with one article up for bid and only one bidder.

At his current asking price, Shaquille O'Neal will have only one suitor when he's a free agent.

And this is one way to look at it.

Shaq is going to be 32-years-old at the end of this season. That puts him at 34 when his current contract expires and still well within the traditional prime years. But that's also 730 dinners in the future, too, from tonight. So we'll try to guess his output as best we can.

Between the 1999 season and 2001 season, Shaq averaged 28.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. Between the 2002 season and 2004 season, he averaged 25.5 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. Using those ratios, we can guess that after two more seasons, he'll be averaging about 22.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and two blocks per game.

Those are still All-NBA numbers, even league MVP-like should the Lakers ever decide to take the regular season seriously again.

But we've also got to factor in games played.

In 1999, he played in 98 percent of the shortened 50-game schedule.

In 2000, he played in 96 percent of the 82 regular-season games.

In 2001, he played in 90 percent.

Between 2002 and 2004, he played in 67 games each season or 81.7 percent.

By 2007, we can guess that he'll be playing in about 58 games per season or about 71 percent of them, and if you saw his last playoff game on Sunday night then you know we're being generous here.

So if we take those estimated statistical averages and multiply them by games played, we see that Shaq could very well be scoring 1,322 points per season, grabbing 574 rebounds and blocking 116 shots at that time.

And at the asking price of $30 million per season, that equals to about $22,692 per point or $52,264 per board or a whopping $258,620 per blocked shot.

Compare that to today's going prices for the same stats.

Tracy McGrady led the league in scoring and by his numbers, he was paid $6,709 per point (1,878 points at $12.6 million). Kevin Garnett led the league in rebounding and he was paid $24,582 per board (1,139 boards at $28 million). Theo Ratliff led the league in blocked shots and he made $32,899 per swat (307 blocks at $10.1 million).

By these figures, Shaq is way overpaid, often slower up and down the court and sometimes a bit more surly that we like our middle-aged cartoon characters. Let's all say it together. He isn't half the man that he used to be.

But it wasn't too long ago that we were convinced that he was twice as good as anyone else.

So maybe the better question is, do the Lakers want a motivated Shaq at $30 million or do they want the guy shooting 4-for-10 on Sunday night at $20 or $15 or $10? Or even the $4.9 mid-level exception?

Do they load down his contract with incentives and clauses hitched to waist measurements, field goal percentages, team standings and number of jerseys sold?

Can the Lakers pay him his weight in gold bullion on nights he leaves a pile of unworthy centers and power forwards in his wake and then empties the lint out their collective pockets when he plays Oliver Miller to a standstill?

"There are a limited amount of things you can do here," Coon said. "The league will classify these incentives as either likely to happen or unlikely to happen. And if he's ever done them in the past then they're likely and they're going to count against the cap anyways."

Score 61 in a game before? Check.

Grab 28 rebounds in a single contest? Check.

Block 15 shots in one night's work? Check.

Win three Finals MVP awards while leading your team to three consecutive championships? Check.

But while we're at it, here's another game.

What can we get for $30 million in an NBA open market?

Well, for starters, Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan combined made $26.1 million this year in salary.

How about an entirely new front line in Elton Brand, Peja Stojakovic and Erick Dampier. That's 56.5 points, 28.6 rebounds and 4.1 blocks per game plus 240 3-pointes on the season for $24.9 million.

How about Tracy McGrady and Jermaine O'Neal, average age of 25, for about $26.3 million.

Or how about another front line of Shawn Marion, Paul Pierce and Ben Wallace. That's 51.5 points, 28.2 rebounds and 4.9 blocks per game plus 205 3-pointers and some tenacious defense for $26.8 million.

Sure, the Lakers are perfectly justified in not paying Shaquille O'Neal $30 million plus per season.

But then, of course, they'd have to play against him.

Do I hear $32 million?

[Diesel]

I think Shaq will take a pay cut IF Orlando offers some Ownership ala Magic and the Lakers in Magic's last NBA contract.

It certainly has been discussed before. Shaq is already in business with the owner of the Magic in that they own some other entities together.

[Weez]

If it's 100% that you can get Shaq/Tmac, why not?

that's just it, it's not guaranteed.

Who would want Howard...not that many (and why would we? he's proven he can't lead a team, esp. not now, at this age). I'd wager Minny would take him though, in a second, if they could move Kandi....

Dolf said it perfectly. If this was for the 5th or lesser pick, you might be onto something. But not for the #1. They get that and they take Okafor, no questions asked, and probably have enough for TMac to stay.

Finally, Shaq has publicly stated numerous times that he won't take a pay cut. He doesn't think it's deserved. He said this most recently when asked about KG's decision to do just that. He said no way would I do that, I'm proven, I've won, no reason to do it.

sidenote: I love how you manipulate the moves to "create" a point. You yourself have posted, and thus know, that their primary goal that offseason was Duncan and Hill. TMac came only after Duncan fell through.

[Diesel]

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If it's 100% that you can get Shaq/Tmac, why not?

that's just it, it's not guaranteed.

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Again... What's not guaranteed about it. I mean, really, Shaq has declined an extension with the Lakers. IN 2005, he will be available to the Highest bidder. He has already stated plenty of times that he wants to finish his career in Orlando. He lives there. It's rumored that he and Tmac have talked frequently about this very thing.... Why is it not a guarantee...

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Who would want Howard...not that many (and why would we? he's proven he can't lead a team, esp. not now, at this age). I'd wager Minny would take him though, in a second, if they could move Kandi....

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Of course they would... In fact, any team with a bad contract that they want to get rid of would take Howard in exchange for them... However, again.. How does that work toward's Orlando's goal. Gabe made a mistake giving Howard that long contract... Now Orlando would need to get rid of it in order to go for Shaq.

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Dolf said it perfectly. If this was for the 5th or lesser pick, you might be onto something. But not for the #1.

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Well, I'm still of the belief that the Hawks will get #1...and Orlando either 2 or 3... Still though... Haven't you been reading the papers... Neither Orlando or Chicago wants to go with Potential anymore. That's the search for Reece Gaines. They need something that will keep Tmac in town next year... I say if they go for broke with Shaq.... They just might get it. Secondly. I don't think any GM trust Okafur's back. I remind you of Larry Johnson and Larry Bird. A bad back can take all of your skills away. Okafur with no lift = Sorry Joker.

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I love how you manipulate the moves to "create" a point. You yourself have posted, and thus know, that their primary goal that offseason was Duncan and Hill. TMac came only after Duncan fell through.

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Yeah... And... They point is still the same... They traded Penny for Danny Manning (Last Year of his contract), Garrity and a 1st rounder (which they traded for a future first).... Then they went on a spre trading valuable players left and right until they could afford to buy 2 star players. It worked... They got 2 star players. What makes you think that they won't employ that same method again???

That's not me twisting anything... sir. That's me point out what happened before...

[Weez]

One, he's a FA at the end of the 2005-2006 year.

Two: much of the speculation on why he dieclined the extension centered around his publicly stating that he didn't want to play for anyone besides Phil. That I know....what I don't know, and I read a lot of NBA, is where you're getting this speculation that he and TMac have talked about playing together. AI's talked about playing iwth Shaq. Has TMac? Seriously, no sarcasm, show me where. Also, show me where he has stated that he wants to finish his career in Orlando.

Three. Unless they find a way to move Hill, highly unlikely given his contract length and his playing status, they won't have the money for Shaq that year.

On Howard: Minny brass has stated, or at least been rumoured to have stated to multiple reliable sources, that they wish they had picked up Howard. I can't recall the circumstances, but I think they took Kandi so quickly that they were without recourse in pursuing Howard. But we're pretty much on the same page on this on ~ except you undervalue Howard's worth to a team that plays at least some halfcourt game (my perception of your statements).

Four. Your "beliefs" that the Hawks will get the one, or even top three, are unfounded and complete speculation, though we'll know more tomorrow night. Added to the fact that for your scenario to work, you almost have to get those two clubs in front of the Hawks at 3 for the cards to fall as you state. And...one of those teams would probably be more willing to trade the pick rather than take a player that they're unsure about (see most top-5 picks filling the same criteria of uncertainty that you state as reasons for their gaining the pick, retaining the pick, and passing on Howard).

Five: Okafor's (not) "chronic" back injury led to the discovery that he'd been playing with a fractured vertebrae, an acute, treatable cause of his back ailments. Wally has three right now in a similar area.

Six: Yes, you're correct concerning the multiple moves that the Magic Brass made, some of them fortunate, to attain their capspace. HOWEVER, all of those moves were made with Gabriel at the helm, their GM. He no longer holds that title or any affiliation with the team. Therefore, the liklihood that the new GM would make the very same moves is much more unlikely. Some would say not likely at all.

Seven: I haven't worked the numbers on this, but for they to maneuver that much under the cap, to sign a third max player, is not possible (I don't think). Perhaps it would if they managed to move all other players, including Gooden, Howard...everyone and sign FA's to one year contracts. That's HIGHLY unlikely and improbable, esp. when they're trying to convince TMac to stay for the "hope" that Shaq would be there in two more years.

I think that about covers it. And that my friends, is "the other half of story".