Why playoff talk is absurd

[drzachary]

Settle down, Walter. Seriously.

[Guest Walter]

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Settle down, Walter. Seriously.

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I just cannot imagine anyone with 0.3% odds starring them in the face claiming even 25% odds are somehow "against me". It's comical.

W

[TheDude]

By the way, I love Bobby Sura.....You da man Bobby wherever you are! (fellow FSU alum)

[Guest Walter]

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By the way, I love Bobby Sura.....You da man Bobby wherever you are! (fellow FSU alum)

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Who knows, maybe we'll go .400, win 28 games, and feel oh so good about ourselves when Pheonix drafts 7th.

W

[Diesel]

How do the odds work in your favor again??

[Diesel]

From now on, that will be the heading for all my post relating to tanking.

Walter... Can you build your own house?

this 0.3% means absolutely nothing to me... because I'm not comparing 1 route (tank) vs. another (playoffs).

I'm looking at your odds on tanking alone. You know the one that you say are working for you.

Your odds are that there's a 75% chance of Failure. That's the bottom line. Throw the team under the bus, knowing that there's a 75% chance to fail.

Now, if you want to get into a REAL discussion on TANK vs. PLAYOFFS we can do that too. Because regardless of how you want to look at it.. Going to the playoffs gets us a better shot at FAs, a better shot at building a fanbase, and a better shot at keeping our good young players.

If we tank... regardless of what the prize... I can almost guarantee that JC, JSmoove, and JJ will walk away in that order!

Remember Joe's desires when he left Phoenix.

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I had a great time and met a lot of new people," said Johnson of his three and one-half years with the Suns. "It's an experience I will cherish. I'm just coming to a fresh start and I'm looking forward to the opportunity."

Johnson, who makes his offseason home in Little Rock, Ark., said he wanted to return to the South.

"Joe Johnson made us aware of his personal desires, which just didn't fit our model of building a team," Colangelo said in a statement. "We're sorry to see Joe leave and wish him nothing but the best in Atlanta."

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He wanted to be the man. You want to tell him, he's not good enough and we need another man. ALL FALL DOWN..

75% chance of blowing this franchise.

[DJlaysitup]

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..what you boobs are telling me .

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I like boobs

[Guest Walter]

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this 0.3% means absolutely nothing to me... because I'm not comparing 1 route (tank) vs. another (playoffs).

I'm looking at your odds on tanking alone.

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How can you not compare one plan to another, or in your case one plan to your lack of a plan? Someone can be objectively ugly without any comparison, but they can't be ugl-IER without any comparison. I admit, tanking is never pretty, but neither is the state of the Hawk franchise, its future without a top 3 pick, or the ridiculously horrid odds of this year's team making the playoffs. Both tanking and not tanking are ugly for their respective reasons, only 0.3% is FAR UGLIER having no longer-term franchise resolution than a 25% (the chance the worst team gets the top pick) or 50% (the chance a bottom 3 team gets a top 3 pick) opportunity at franchise changing fortunes.

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Your odds are that there's a 75% chance of Failure.

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I have indicated "success" is maintaining our top 3 pick which is at 50% should we have the bottom 3 worst record. Your odds are of 99.7% failure without any potential for a long-term, franchise improving result are not only U-G-L-Y. They are U-G-L-I-E-R!

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Now, if you want to get into a REAL discussion on TANK vs. PLAYOFFS we can do that too. Because regardless of how you want to look at it.. Going to the playoffs gets us a better shot at FAs, a better shot at building a fanbase, and a better shot at keeping our good young players.

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So, you're saying with your plan we have a 0.3% chance (as that is the AT BEST likelihood of our making the playoffs given we'd have to play .500 ball, something we haven't done for at least 8 years) of getting "us a better shot at FAs, a better shot at building a fanbase, and a better shot at keeping our good young players". I don't agree with your assessment but regardless, what kind of chance is that relative to 50% chance of winning a top 3 pick? It's 160 times MORE LIKELY that we win a top 3 pick than we, as you put it, have a "better shot at FAs, building a fan base, or keeping our young players". Mind you, Oden, like Lebron, will do more for our fan base than a 28 win season, ownership won't spend but if they would FAs would rather play with Oden (and ZaZa) than (just) ZaZa, and our young talent d@mn sure ain't leaving when they see Thabeet or Oden behind them. Players don't leave dominate bigs. They know what they have in them. They'd be fools to leave a franchise big.

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If we tank... regardless of what the prize... I can almost guarantee that JC, JSmoove, and JJ will walk away in that order!

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Whatever. That's nonsense. After a year of playing with Oden or Thabeet none of them walk. Players just don't leave a dominate big. They know what they have in them and just don't leave. And JJ has 3 more years with us. How is he going to "walk" anywhere? This is just nonsense. As if they won't want to leave MORE when their 99.7% chance of not making the playoffs comes to fruition and they ceremoniously hand over the only means to improving this team to Pheonix. JJ would DREAM of going back to Pheonix with the pick.

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Remember Joe's desires when he left Phoenix...He wanted to be the man. You want to tell him, he's not good enough and we need another man.

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Do you really care more about what you think (as it was not reflected in JJ's quotes) JJ wanted then and what this franchise needs now? JJ wants to win like everybody else and knows he needs a dominate big to do so as much as anyone. He may be proud (not wanting to be the 4th option on a good playoff team) but he's not stupid (wanting to be the only option on a terrible lottery team with no post presence).

W

[Guest Walter]

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How do the odds work in your favor again??

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...ASSUMING we played .500 ball the rest of the season, something we haven't done over that span of time in 8 years.

1) We have much more control over our tanking well than our playing well

2) The odds, should we tank (bottom 3) or play well (.500 ball the remainder of the season), of winning the pick or making the playoffs are significantly in favor of tanking (50% of keeping a top 3 pick) than "playing well" (0.3% chance historically of 35 win teams making the playoffs).

3) The impact of winning a top 3 pick (Oden, Durant, or Thabeet) is significantly greater than the FAR less likely possibility of making the playoffs, and does not exclude any of the options, however unlikely they are given ownership's unwillingness to spend to improve this team (i.e. FAcy, trade) otherwise available.

You have not one single odd working in your favor Diesel. We have more control over tanking than "winning", we have a far greater likelihood of being rewarded for tanking than "winning", and the reward for tanking well enough is FAR greater than any other reward. quite simply, you are out-matched, out-witted, and out-classed.

W

[Guest Walter]

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Didn't the Titans win a game this year when VY only had like 82 total yards? And they had like 3 TD's from defense and special teams? Vick's first year starting was much more impressive..

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I don't think anybody in their right mind would not give Vince Young the vast majority of the credit for their amount of success this year. They were the worst team in the league last year without him. They wouldn't have turned it around without him. The Titans of this year can thank the Titan's of last year for their good fortune.

In basketball, one player makes an even greater difference and this draft has difference makers in the top 3. Learn from the Titans. Get your difference maker at the most important and most difficult position to fill. That's QB in the NFL and Center in the NBA.

W

[DJlaysitup]

OK - settle down - you are dead right.

[AtLaS]

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only 0.3% is FAR UGLIER having no longer-term franchise resolution than a 25% (the chance the worst team gets the top pick) or 50% (the chance a bottom 3 team gets a top 3 pick) opportunity at franchise changing fortunes.

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dude do you actually believe we'll be the WORST team in basketball? Those are worse odds than what you say are our chances at making the playoffs. There is no way we'd finish worse than Charlotte, Philly or other teams, which significantly reduces our chances at a top 3 pick.

BTW you need to kill that playoff argument, because every season is different and we could easily finish better than 35 wins.

[exodus]

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Howard was BK's pick at #1. We tried relentlessly to trade up for him (either #6/#17 or #6/JT). It was public knowledge and all in the sports news. I'm surprised your memory doesn't go back that far.

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I do remember him trying to trade up for Howard.I couldn't remember where he had Livingston.

To be honest I didn't even watch the games during most of that season and didn't follow the news leading up to the draft very closely. They had lost me by then.

Looking at his top 3

Howard

Livingston

Childress

pretty much tells you all you need to know about BK's ability in the draft. He is clueless.

[Guest Walter]

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dude do you actually believe we'll be the WORST team in basketball? Those are worse odds than what you say are our chances at making the playoffs. There is no way we'd finish worse than Charlotte, Philly or other teams, which significantly reduces our chances at a top 3 pick.

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There is one way we do it. Management tanks.

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BTW you need to kill that playoff argument, because every season is different and we could easily finish better than 35 wins.

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Uh, in 20 seasons only 1 team with 35 wins has made the playoffs. That's 160 teams and only 1 with 35 wins. You'd think if "every season were different" there would be a whole hell of alot more. The truth is, every season is more the same than different. 35 win teams simply don't make the playoffs AND WE'RE NOT EVEN REMOTELY A 35 WIN TEAM!

W

[Johann]

just speculating, because i dont know, but surely his no. 2 was emeka.

[AtLaS]

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There is one way we do it. Management tanks.

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lol, so what if Philly and Charlotte also tank?

[AtLaS]

Emeka wasn't, he publically stated Howard was his #1, Livingston #2, and Childress was his #3

[AtLaS]

yeah I see what you're saying, I had already made that post before I saw your reply in the other thread.

[falc82]

We could still have a chance to make the playoffs, but it would take us winning out for the remainder of our Jan. schedule. Chicago/Orlando are the only tough games while the back to back Bobcat games and the 76ers games should be easily won while the T-wolves game and 2nd boston one are very winnable. However, that is 7 more games, and the Hawks winning 9 straight...well I can't remember the last time we had such a streak.

[AtLaS]

who says we have to win 9 straight? If we play slightly above .500 ball the rest of the way (which we are certainly capable of doing) we will have a chance. And even if we don't get in, we won't give up a top pick, we will gain some respect and have a bright look towards next year, much like Orlando did last year.

On the other hand, if we tank, we WILL NOT finish in the bottom 2 teams, it's just not possible because we are too talented for that. This means we will have about a 25-30% chance of GETTING a top 3 pick, and only about a 10% chance at Oden (who is really the only player worth tanking for). Those odds, to me, aren't worth it.

BTW like I said in another post, by tanking you are basically telling your team that they aren't good enough. These are young players, none of which are in their primes (save JJ), they will definately be a legit playoff team in the near future. What happens if we tank and give up #4 or #5? Tell the team to go out and play hard the next year after you have already told them they aren't good enough? That's too detrimental to the team, players, and overall just too big a risk. You just don't do that and that DEFINES the word unprofessional. Our players would HATE our franchise and beg to be traded.