Just to clear up my Durant/Oden position

[NJHAWK]

I know this was part of another thread but there were a few replies I want to answer with one post. #1. No I do not think Sheldon will be a great shot blocker in this league and never did. I did however 100% support the Shelden pick then as I still do now. He will be a very solid position defender in this league and he will be a great rebounder in this league. Also he will bring the hustle that this young team needs. #2. I am not 100% against the pick of Oden for us at #1 beacuse we need size so bad and signing a BIG free agent Odens size will cost way more than we would have to pay Oden. He will be a Foyle/Dampier type role player, no more. Durant will BLOW HIM OUT OF THE WATER AS A PLAYER, OUT OF THE WATER. As for the cat who wants to bet I have no problem at all betting you $20 that Oden will be no more than a role player if he stays out of trouble, off drugs and off league suspension. I just want to be clear on this bet. Are you saying Oden will top all of Foyles career high stats in his rookie year cause you may want to rethink that. Also what if Oden doesnt declare or is suspended for a long period or injuried. #3. Im calling people out for their Oden support cause all the BK HATERS on this and many boards will swear they wanted Durant all along once Oden and Durant show the kind of players they are just like everybody swears they wanted Paul over Marv and Roy or some othe guy who would be riding our bench over Shelden.

[AHF]

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As for the cat who wants to bet I have no problem at all betting you $20 that Oden will be no more than a role player if he stays out of trouble, off drugs and off league suspension. I just want to be clear on this bet. Are you saying Oden will top all of Foyles career high stats in his rookie year cause you may want to rethink that. Also what if Oden doesnt declare or is suspended for a long period or injuried.

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I am saying that if you add the PPG + RPG + BPG + APG + SPG from Oden's rookie season that will be better than Foyle's career high PPG + career high RPG + career high BPG, etc.

I am envisioning getting a single number that is the product of adding all those per game stats together. (i.e., Oden could finish .2 SPG behind Foyle's best season but have superior stats elsewhere so that Oden would still win the bet - it is the sum of all these figures).

If you would like to build in a protection against small sample size, let's say that if Oden doesn't play 35 games it is off (and likewise any season in which Foyle didn't play 35 games doesn't count).

[vdunkndunk]

I think Oden is a bit overhyped with all the talk about him being the best big man prospect since Kareem and all that, but he's definitely the best big man prospect since Dwight Howard.

Personally, I think he's going to be very good in the pros and just what we need. He'll already be one of the longest and most athletic centers in the league from day one, and he's got a chance to be stonger than most guys also.

So that alone is encouraging. But you also have to remember that for the most part, centers develop slowest, and Oden already has an advanced shotblocking game and a pretty decent postgame offensively considering how raw he was supposed to be.

I think passing on Oden would be a mistake at this point. I also think Durant will have a hard time being as good as Kobe or KG, neither of whom have won championships without a dominant bigman. Oden has a chance, in my opinion, to be a somewhere between Dikembe and Duncan.

[HawksFan87]

Good thing you are not the GM of our team or we would have more SF'S on this team than we already have...

[AHF]

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Good thing you are not the GM of our team or we would have more SF'S on this team than we already have...

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Take another look at his post. He advocates taking the big man, Oden.

[AmishBoy]

Since we're going on record I want Oden if we get number 1. I watched him in the championship and I think he has skills. I also watched Durant in the Kansas game for the conference championship and drooled, but only in the first half . I would take him at #2 and trade whoever to make room for him.

[AHF]

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As for the cat who wants to bet I have no problem at all betting you $20 that Oden will be no more than a role player if he stays out of trouble, off drugs and off league suspension. I just want to be clear on this bet. Are you saying Oden will top all of Foyles career high stats in his rookie year cause you may want to rethink that. Also what if Oden doesnt declare or is suspended for a long period or injuried.

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I am saying that if you add the PPG + RPG + BPG + APG + SPG from Oden's rookie season that will be better than Foyle's career high PPG + career high RPG + career high BPG, etc.

I am envisioning getting a single number that is the product of adding all those per game stats together. (i.e., Oden could finish .2 SPG behind Foyle's best season but have superior stats elsewhere so that Oden would still win the bet - it is the sum of all these figures).

If you would like to build in a protection against small sample size, let's say that if Oden doesn't play 35 games it is off (and likewise any season in which Foyle didn't play 35 games doesn't count).

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Just leave a confirming post to let me know if these terms are acceptable.

[coachx]

Durant has great talent no doubt. However, he does not have an NBA body, maybe a WNBA body.

I predict (not bet) Durant will have a major injury in his 1st year. I don't think his body is mature enough to with stand an 82 game regular season. I bet he plays 50 games tops his rookie year and is very banged up by the 15th game (1/2 of what he is accustomed to playing.)

Not trying to jinx the kid, he is just so frail he will take some major lumps unless he limits his game to outside jump shots. Let him get matched up vs. Artest a couple of times and see if his body can survive. Guys are going to get real physical with this kid. Will the refs give him a diaper and treat him like a baby his rookie year ?

I'd take that bet any day (Oden being nothing more then a Dampier or Foye role player). I have never seen Foye or Dampier make a left handed hook shot or out run guards on fast breaks...... and Oden is just 19.

I'll take your money if you want to hand it out like that.

[DJlaysitup]

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Durant has great talent no doubt. However, he does not have an NBA body, maybe a WNBA body.

I predict (not bet) Durant will have a major injury in his 1st year. I don't think his body is mature enough to with stand an 82 game regular season. I bet he plays 50 games tops his rookie year and is very banged up by the 15th game (1/2 of what he is accustomed to playing.)...

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I disagree, the team that gets Durant will be in the conference finals - minimum - 2009 thru 2018.

He will he be the next? whoever? no just the best there is at this point in time.

He will be an offensive Engine....

PS: Unless we get him and Phuck him up.

[Plastic Man]

I agree Durant does not have the most NBA ready body. However he has actually added alot of muscle since high school (he was REALLY skinny). I don't think he needs much more bulk, but definitely should get stronger this summer.

[Popeye]

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PS: Unless we get him and Phuck him up.

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That's what i think too, even if we have gotten Paul he would be averaging like 10 and 5, shooting 38% with us. Marvin would probably average around 15 and 7 with someone else and the whole board would be like: Why would you choose a need over the BPA.

Oh well..

[NJHAWK]

I thought you meant Oden will have higher #'s in each and every catagory than Foyle and not the sum of all. Anyway I looked up Foyle's stats and they are alot lower than I thought. I thought he and Dampier were simalar players which is why I compared Oden with those two. Foyles career high in scoring is 5.7ppg, lol I think Oden will almost double that. I see Oden as a 10-12 ppg, 7-10 reb per game,1.5 blocks a game type of player kinda like Fatpier. Not horrble #'s but no where near a star in this league. Just a flat out role player. I dont know if the sum of all stats is the way I want to go with Foyle maybe if you include career high in field goal % too. I would do the sum of stats with Fatpier in a second. He is shooting 67% this year and his career high in points is 12, rebounds 11 and blocks I think was 2.7. Thats a sum of around 83 give or take a few % points. Oden will never have a season in his career like that much less his rookie year. Maybe we can just bet points and rebound total for Oden and Zaza. I want to bet if we can agree on terms. The only way I will not bet is if Oden winds up a Hawk cause I love this team and cannot root against one of our players unless we sign Isiah Rider.

[CBAreject]

Let me point out something about this "bet".

It makes very little sense to "sum" all these stats. This should be intuitive, but just as an example, look at BPG. Even if this number is very, very good, it's only around 3. If you add that with FG% (as a whole number), it is completely meaningless.

A player with 53% fg and 0 bpg is equivalent to a player with 50% fg and 3 bpg. I think we all know that's bogus. Blocks are very valuable, as are steals, and assists. Rebounds are less valuable than these things, but they are more valuable than points. FG% is valuable, but not so much that it should dwarf every other category.

The best would be to use Hollinger's PER numbers. The trouble with that is it doesn't consider defense that much.

[NJHAWK]

I.M.O. field goal % espec. for a big man is huge. You do not want an inefficiant big man on your squad. Anyone remember Jon Konkak and Blair Rasmussen. Rebounds are also huge. Blocks are important if you have a guy like Deke who could help block and play man to man d on other big men. If you have a guy like Ratliff who would get abused one on one vs big men but get alot of help blocks its not such a good thing. Same with steals which in some cases are meaningless as with A.I. He gets a boat load of steals but is one of the worst defenders in the league.

[CBAreject]

I didn't say FG% was not important. Read my post and think.

FG% is extremely important. HOWEVER...HOWEVER....HOWEVER, you must realize that a typical fg% is 20-30 times the MAGNITUDE of bpg for a center. 2 bpg is VERY SIGNIFICANT. 2% in FG shooting is equivalent to about one basket made every 4 nights.

If you want to use FG% in the equation, you should adjust it somehow. You might use FG% -50%. In this way, a 52% shooter gets 2 points.

[Lascar78]

If you want to use those stats, you should just divide each stat by the value of the 2007 league leader, so you get a percentage for each stat of where they stand in the league.

[AHF]

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I thought you meant Oden will have higher #'s in each and every catagory than Foyle and not the sum of all. Anyway I looked up Foyle's stats and they are alot lower than I thought. I thought he and Dampier were simalar players which is why I compared Oden with those two. Foyles career high in scoring is 5.7ppg, lol I think Oden will almost double that. I see Oden as a 10-12 ppg, 7-10 reb per game,1.5 blocks a game type of player kinda like Fatpier. Not horrble #'s but no where near a star in this league. Just a flat out role player. I dont know if the sum of all stats is the way I want to go with Foyle maybe if you include career high in field goal % too. I would do the sum of stats with Fatpier in a second. He is shooting 67% this year and his career high in points is 12, rebounds 11 and blocks I think was 2.7. Thats a sum of around 83 give or take a few % points. Oden will never have a season in his career like that much less his rookie year. Maybe we can just bet points and rebound total for Oden and Zaza. I want to bet if we can agree on terms. The only way I will not bet is if Oden winds up a Hawk cause I love this team and cannot root against one of our players unless we sign Isiah Rider.

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Since Dampier is less ridiculous than Foyle I think a fair matchup should be Oden's rookie year against Dampier's career average through the 2006-07 season (i.e., the date of the bet). Would you be willing to do that matchup? We can add in 20 x FG% and 5 x FT% as a categories if you want as well to give that some real weight.

So the modified proposal:

Dampier's career averages through the end of the 2006-07 season in (20 x FG%) + (5 x FT%) + PPG + RPG + APG + SPG + BPG

v.

Oden's Rookie Season (20 x FG%) + (5 x FT%) + PPG + RPG + APG + SPG + BPG

Oden must play a minimum of 35 games for the bet to go forward.

(I understand the PER/efficiency arguments from people but the focus of our discussion has been on raw averages so I am using those.)

[AHF]

Bump

[AHF]

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Bump

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[AtLaS]

lmao, I think he's having second thoughts..