Only problem with Pau is money

[txsting]

I posted this in Sothron's thread, but I feel that maybe this is important enough to break out here for discussion:

Gasol turns 27 in July. He's locked up for 4 more years, at the following annual salaries:

$13,709,375

$15,080,312

$16,451,250

$17,822,187

I think #3/Chill/Craig begins to work from a talent and salary perspective. That deal would eat up our remaining cap, though. If we could also give them Lo that would be good.

I have all the Hawks money on a spreadsheet. The #3/Chill/Craig deal works okay, but it's very close. It would allow us to resign Smoove at ~$10M per and come right up to the cap. There is NO way to do this deal without Craig in it, and still be able to resign Smoove.

With Pau's money on board, I think we would soon find that we could not afford the luxury of keeping MW, Smoove, and Shelden. For instance, let's project to 2009, with a cap around $61M, projected by me: (i make some guesses with regards to resigned salary amounts)

Pau: 16.4M

JJ: 15M (in his last year),

Smoove: 11M,

Shelden: resigned at 6M,

Marvin: resigned at 8.5M,

#11 pick: 1.85M (due for resigning in 2010)

That's almost $59M of a $61M cap in your top 6 players. You've still got potentially Solo and Zaza and Salim to sign, if you still want 'em at that point. But in order to stay near the cap, we'd have a pretty lousy bench to go along with that awesome 6. That's why I say that one of Smoove/Shell/MW might also have to go to make Pau work longterm.

Do you want Yi and a deep bench, or Pau?? It's a tough, tough call.

[Dragitoff]

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That's almost $59M of a $61M cap in your top 6 players.

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Keep in mind most teams use a 8 man rotation so assuming you re-signed all those players you mentioned at those amounts, you also have to consider draft picks and so on.

I'm all for drafting Yi, but if we can trade for a sure thing like Gasol, you have to do it. This team is so young already. We need some veteran leadership and can't afford to take a chance on an unknown. He might be the next Dirk or the next flop or somewhere in between, but whatever he is, could the team survive JJ being out of the lineup for a few weeks with Yi or would they be better off with Gasol? I'm looking for this team to make a playoff run and in order to do that, we've got to have some star quality player(s) to go with JJ. Smoove is almost there now.

[Diesel]

I would trade Speedy, Zaza, Lo, and #3 for Pau Gasol.

That would be a great deal fro both teams.

Memphis gets an up and coming Center. They can spend the #3 pick on Horford and the #4 pick on Conley Jr. If they like him.

They would then have:

MCJ, Gay, Miller, Horford, Zaza as their starting 5.

Atlanta would have:

Law, JJ, JSmoove, Gasol, and Shelden as our starting 5...

and on occasion we move Gasol to 5 and play Marvin with Shelden on the bench.

[bumpyphish1]

The question is...If we trade the 11 and Childress and Speedy, could we re-sign Smoove AND Marvin. If so, then I am down with it in a big way.

If not, its time for some Yi.

[Diesel]

The 3 pick will be traded for Gasol if any pick is used to get Gasol... And Rightly so.

now if you want to talk no pick:

Zaza, Marvin, Lo, and Lue.. for Gasol

However, I can't see Memphis losing their mind in that way.

[txsting]

I say the answer to your question is yes, we could resign Smoove and Marvin, but have little available for anything else. In that scenario, you'd probably move Shelden (out of necessity) when his deal comes up, looking for low priced, older veteran role players, or else cheap young players who can fill bench roles.

I'm arguing that signing Pau leads to a situation where our top 6 valued players take up the entire cap in two years time. That means somebody else has to go.

I can almost see why, on paper, #3/Smoove/filler for Pau/protected '08 1st would make financial sense down the road from a team management standpoint. Basketball sense? Probably not.

[TheDude]

how do teams like the spurs and pistons and mavs afford all their stars?

[DJlaysitup]

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I would trade Speedy, Zaza, Lo, and #3 for Pau Gasol.

That would be a great deal for both teams.

Memphis gets an up and coming Center. They can spend the #3 pick on Horford and the #4 pick on Conley Jr. If they like him.

They would then have:

MCJ, Gay, Miller, Horford, Zaza as their starting 5.

Atlanta would have:

Law, JJ, JSmoove, Gasol, and Shelden as our starting 5...

and on occasion we move Gasol to 5 and play Marvin with Shelden on the bench.

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That would work for me...not the best deal...but pretty good.

[txsting]

The answer on many teams, esp Mavs ($35M over the cap), is that they operate over the cap and near luxury tax levels.

Since we don't seem to be capable of doing that (ownership), we're already fighting with one arm tied. I believe that only if this team starts to perform and bring in money will we be allowed to exceed the cap, and only then if the court issues are resolved.

Spurs have been great at keeping guys happy, getting hometown discounts, and filling the roster with low/medium pay role players. They operate with only three high salary guys (Tim, Parker, Manu). Practically everyone else that contributes makes 2-3M. They have one marginally bad contract in Barry for 5M. And even they are $12M over the cap because they keep a deep bench.

Detroit is about 5M over the cap, and they do it with a few more high priced players and a shorter bench than SA. They are about to take a big hit with the Billups resigning, but they don't have much of a choice.

The fact is, the NBA rules ALLOW teams to easily resign their own players if you are willing to exceed cap. The cap restricts you primarily when signing new players.

[mrhonline]

You only need three good offensive players (JJ, Smith, Gasol) to compete in the EC. The rest of the players can be role players.

But, I should point out that a trade for Gasol would optimally be completed before the draft, because the Hawks would have ~$5M in cap space to absorb returning contracts. That space goes away the immediate moment they draft at #3 and #11, respectively.

Additionally, Gasol's trade value is $12.34M until the end of June. In brief, a trade for Gasol before the draft only requires $7.34M in outgoing salaries from Atlanta.

Subtract Childress' requisite $2.86M, and that leaves you with at least $4.48M in filler. From the Grizzlies' perspective, the best option is:

Zaza + Lue

Memphis gains:

1. a backup guard,

2. a serviceable center,

3. the #3 pick,

4. and salary cap relief.

To summarize, Childress + Zaza + Lue + #3

From the Hawks' perspective, you lose several key pieces, but you can easily rationalize them:

1. Childress wants to start elsewhere, and will cost more next year than he's worth to the team.

2. Zaza was nice, but Gasol can do everything he does MUCH BETTER.

3. You have the #11 to replace Lue.

4. You can only hope that the #3 will be as good as Gasol.

[txsting]

Your points are good, and financially what you are saying makes sense. Now, look forward at what you have committed in salaries for 2008 and 2009. Can you tell me how we fill out a team with two $15+M players and Smoove likely over $10M? No other successful team in the NBA operates with three stars at that level of compensation.

I can't work out how our penniless and bent-over owners will be able to field a team that is constructed thusly. And I would LOVE to get Pau and keep Smoove.

[Charman212002]

This is an excellent post Mr. Hotline. You have obviously done your homework.

I truly believe this is the BEST (also means realistic) senerio for the Hawks offseason. Lue and Zaza have talent, but neither fit the system we are trying to build. We all love what Chillz brings but when it is all said and done, he is a back up and probably wouldn't have re-signed with us anyway. Yi or whomever we would get at three would most likely take a season or two before they could really contribute. That, simply put, is too long a wait. We need to be in win now mode.

Again excellent post. All I can say is I hope B.K. is as knoweldgeable about these matters as you are... uh oh.

[mrhonline]

Smith's deal will not start at $10M. (Look at Prince's deal for a comparable amount).

Regardless, many teams in the NBA have three players combining for ~$35M -

Chicago (once Deng and/or Gordon re-sign)

Cleveland

Dallas

Denver

Detroit (once Billups re-signs)

GS

Houston

Indiana

...

I'll stop there, but it's actually quite common. The key is a willingness to not only go over the salary cap, but to butt up vs. the luxury tax.

[TexasPete]

Again, if the 3 and Chillz was enough the deal would have been done yesterday. That deal isn't happening, so it is a waste of time.

The Grizz can get significantly better deals elsewhere. Gasol may be a Hawk but it WILL NOT BE FOR Chill and the 3...and some bum like Lo/Claxton.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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how do teams like the spurs and pistons and mavs afford all their stars?

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They do it by trading away their 1st round draft picks, and acquire good, but cast-off type players. They also tend to acquire or give away expiring contracts to get the player that they want.

[Nicholasp27]

u can go over the cap for ur own players, tho i dunno how much owners will do that, especially if we don't make playoffs

however, trading for gasol would hurt our depth

right now we have 3 above-average backup pgs: speedy/lue/aj (speedy = above-average starter when healthy), and hopefully #11 will get us a good starting pg

we have a top 6th man in chill for 2/3, plus sniper slim for 1/2

we have a top backup center in zaza and others in shelden/solomon

at least one of those 3 can be a top 20 starting center in the league (zaza already is)

we have forwards covered for all 48 mins with marvin/smoove/chill/shelden/solo

basically, chill/zaza/shelden/lue/speedy/aj/slim/solomon is a REALLY GOOD bench...and add on yi/horford to that as well

so that is where we are at if we stay put: law/jj/marvin/smoove/zaza(shelden/solo/yi) and a great 8-man bench

lots of potential to improve etc etc

just need new coach

so if we trade for gasol, we need to make sure both our starting lineup and our bench is strong...he'll def help our starting lineup...how much he costs will determine the harm to our bench

i would NOT trade 3/smoove for gasol, as i don't think gasol is that much better a starter than smoove in the next 1-2 years

[mrhonline]

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The Grizz can get significantly better deals elsewhere.

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The best deal I've seen offered (on the Net, of course) is Theo/Green/#5 from Boston. There aren't many teams in the NBA that have both the need for a max-salary big and enough cheap, tradeable assets to get a deal done.

If Chicago refuses to trade Deng, Atlanta and Boston should easily be the frontrunners. I think Atlanta's offer is superior, but I am biased:

#3 > #5

Zaza > Theo (cheaper, better)

Lue + Childress > Green

[TexasPete]

Again, last year the Bulls offered Nocioni, Gordon, and Tyrus Thomas and PJ Browns expiring deal. That is better than Chill and 3. I would also disregard the Celts deal as it is also light.

If Gasol is traded, and I think he may be finally, there will be better deals by a mile than Chill and 3.

They would be better off just keeping him and they know that.

[DJlaysitup]

Agree with your logic TP...but they can't...PG wants a trade.

Pau will be a Hawk very shortly..(IMHO).

[mrhonline]

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Again, last year the Bulls offered Nocioni, Gordon, and Tyrus Thomas and PJ Browns expiring deal. That is better than Chill and 3.

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Nocioni's deal is also expiring, so it's basically Gordon + Thomas. I have two problems with your suggestion that Atlanta's deal falls well short:

1. I'm not sure I believe that Chicago offered Gordon.

2. Gordon + Thomas is not significantly better than #3 + Chill + Zaza, because Thomas is not a huge upgrade over Warrick. Memphis wanted Deng.

Most information on the 'Net implied that Memphis wanted to wait until the offseason to see what offers they received, as well as to see what the draft lotto yielded. Chicago no longer has the flexibility to offer a better trade. As it stands, Boston and Atlanta are the only (reportedly) interested teams that can offer both long-term cap relief and young players/picks.