For those who think we're playoff ready NOW

[gsuteke]

this is from the Indy Star. I think it's very realistic. who are we going to jump and why? Certainly none of the teams in the top 8. don't be a homer.

Reseeding the East

The draft is over, trades are being discussed and free agency opens today. Here's how things stand:

1. Chicago: Already on cusp of contention, now Joakim Noah adds front-line depth (and fashion).

2. Detroit: Added backcourt depth with Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo but must retain free agent Chauncey Billups to contend.

3. Cleveland: Didn't have a draft pick. Needs to find a way to strengthen backcourt.

4. Miami: First-round pick Daequan Cook won't provide immediate help. And Shaq ain't getting any younger.

5. Toronto: Sat out the draft, other than trading for a late second-round pick. Needs front line help.

6. New Jersey: Gambled on player (Sean Williams) with character issues for second consecutive year.

7. Washington: Nick Young fills needs for shooting guard, especially if it loses DeShawn Stevenson.

8. Orlando: Second-round pick Milovan Rakovic will stay overseas for at least another year.

9. Charlotte: Trade for Jason Richardson brings immediate gain but hampers long-term building plan.

10. Boston: Got better quickly by trading for Ray Allen, but where's the long-range vision?

11. Indiana: The real work begins in July trading period. Relying on coaching change for improvement, so far.

12. New York: Acquisition of Zach Randolph could provide lift, but is there room for him and Eddy Curry on the low block?

13. Philadelphia: First-round picks Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith won't provide much immediate benefit but improve depth.

14. Atlanta: Al Horford should excel at power forward, but it will be haunted by decision to pass on Mike Conley with No. 3 pick.

15. Milwaukee: Major risk to take Yi Jianlian, who doesn't want to play there and won't provide immediate help anyway.

-- Mark Montieth

[DavidSomerset]

These teams next year, assuming people are equally healthy all ways across:

- Milwaukee

- Orlando

- NYK

- Philly

- Indy

- Charlotte

- Washington

- New Jersey (I'm just not a believer in them at all)

Heck, I would even say that we should be better than Detroit if they don't re-sign Billups.

I think we make it in as the 6-8 seed...This should be a solid year for us.

[gsuteke]

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These teams next year, assuming people are equally healthy all ways across:

- Milwaukee

- Orlando

- NYK

- Philly

- Indy

- Charlotte

- Washington

- New Jersey (I'm just not a believer in them at all)

Heck, I would even say that we should be better than Detroit if they don't re-sign Billups.

I think we make it in as the 6-8 seed...This should be a solid year for us.

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Orlando: they have something figured out we don't, you need a Center. one man does not maketh a team but Orlando beats us over an 82 game season.

Washington: Caron Butler will be back. Gilbert Arenas is under contract for one more season, correct? Advantage Washington.

New Jersy: Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd, Vince Carter. enough said.

[DavidSomerset]

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Orlando: they have something figured out we don't, you need a Center. one man does not maketh a team but Orlando beats us over an 82 game season.

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Outside of Howard they are BAAAD...Until they surround him with some talent, they are never going to be better than a 7 or 8 seed...If they lose Darko, they are worse than last year.

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Washington: Caron Butler will be back. Gilbert Arenas is under contract for one more season, correct? Advantage Washington.

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Give me JJ and Josh Smith in '07 over those two any day of the week...I think Smoove will be >Butler, and I think JJ's overall game is about as good as Arenas.

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New Jersy: Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd, Vince Carter. enough said.

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Man, Kidd is OLD...I remember watching that game against them last year when Lue hit the buzzer beater to win it, and I was just thinking to myself that Kidd does not look anywhere near what he used to...I think his time is dwindling down very quickly...Not to mention Vince is never going to do anything extraordinary for them.

[frosgrim]

So you are saying the Hawks can't compete this year? Sorry don't support that idea at all. A healthy team last year gets around 36 wins based on what we saw when the team was all on the court. This year we have a more experienced Josh Smith, a rookie point who looks ready to step in in the mold of Doc Rivers, another low-post threat in Al Horford, and an improving Zaza. All those factors will contribute to more wins.

That list you pasted in I have some issues with. Here is how I see the East:

Playoff Locks

Chicago- looks loaded for bear

Cleveland- can't take away what they did last season

Washington- a healthy Arenas gets them 55 wins

Teams with a few questions:

Detroit- serious question about age, chemestry and coaching- will Rasheed completely melt-down and cost them?

Miami- how much more does Shaq have in the tank? He could really decline this year, as was seen in his play last year, he just doesn't have wheels any more. Will Wade be healthy all year?

New York- Looking better, but there are still leadership issues and can Randolph survive NY?

NJ- I actually think they are the best of this bunching. A healthy Kristic makes them much better. Looks like Carter will be back. The question is does Kidd slow down just a little more than he did last year?

Teams with a lot of questions:

Toronto- Youth, youth, and inexperience. Good core, but can they put it all together. Will Bargiani step-up and be that second scorer that they need? 41-44 wins

Orlando- Dwight and who? Point seems to be a problem. It looks like Hill is leaving so who steps into the leadership vacuum? Coaching a question mark as well. 41-44 wins

Atlanta- Similar to Toronto but they have the problem of coaching as well. Joe Johnson is an all-star, but can Smith score in the low post? and can Marvin take on some of the scoring? Will Law immediately contribute? 39-41 wins- right on the edge of the second season.

Charlotte- Where's the perimeter defense? Morison- nope, Richardson- nope, Felton-not really. They will be able to score, but they will give up more than they produce. Can Emeka stay healthy is another HUGE question for this up and coming team. 35-38 wins

Boston- Ray Allen and Paul Pierce? You have to be kidding me. They are both volume shooters and shoot from the same places on the court. Pierce doesn't slash like he did early in his career and would rather take fade-away 17 footers. I don't see this as working for the Cs. Miss the playoffs again.

Indiana- We saw the collapse at the end of the year. The have very little chemistry and a mis-matched roster that doesn't compliment itself. Lotto land team.

Philly- May be the surprise team out of this group, but they have nothing in the low-post. Dalembert is a good back-side shot blocker but has a hard time one on one.

Milwaukee- Team seems to be going in reverse. Who's the point for this team? What are they going to do with Yi? If Yi plays for them, does he even contribute? Bogut is solid but not spectacular. I predict lotto land for them

[gsuteke]

I think the Hawks CAN compete this year. I just don't know if they can win, or atleast win to the point of being a .500 club.

the Hawks led the league in double digit losses last year guys with over 30. that's pathetic when you back out the 30 games they won.

I think this is a bigger project than we are letting on and it's compounded by the fact BK didn't land a legit Center this year and we don't have the capspace or draft pick next year to get one.

whether he addressed the PG need is debateable.

[Diesel]

First off, I think this should be re-asked after the teams are set...

But as for now...

1. Orlando = Without a coach, i think that they will have some chemistry problems. Plus, if they get Lewis, I think it will be more problems than good. They need another strong post player to keep the pressure off of Howard.

2. New Jersey. I love them, but Age... is creeping in. Also Mikki Moore is not as good as he played.

3. Philly. I love this team too, but they blew it in the draft. They drafted three ???? WTHs... Miller is older.

4. Milwaukee. Who is their PG. Trading Ford was stupid.

5. Detroit. It looks like they will lose Billups. IF they do, I don't see them being so good. If they don't, their years of dominance is closing down.

6. Boston. I like Ray Allen. However, didn't he have 2 knee surgeries. I like the pickup of Glen Davis but they will need a Sf. I don't think Gerald Green can be that.

7. Charlotte. Okafor, May... Injuries/Continuity. But if we discount that... I like the pickup of Jrich.. I think however, that they will miss 3 pt shooting. Hermann was the starter and they've resigned him but if JRich is their scoring guy and if they resign Wallace... Their best shooter s are on the bench.

8. Miami. Shaq's old and going through the motion. IF Zo doesn't come back... it will be a long season. Wade can't do it all by himself. Also, look for toine to cause issues in the lineup if he's coming off the bench.

9. Indiana. Downward spiral. No PG. NO pick... NO progress.

[AnnArborHawk]

When you look at the East, there are a lot of teams that are so close to one another that injuries, momentum, sub-par performances, above-par performances and all kinds of other in-season anomalies will determine who definitely ends up where. Rather than rank order teams in the East, it probably makes more sense to use a tiered approach:

Tier 1 - Conference Title Contenders

Chicago

Detroit

Cleveland

Tier 2 - On their way toward the top (or on their way down)

Toronto

Miami

New Jersey

Tier 3 - Fighting for the 7 and 8 seeds

Washington

Orlando

Boston

Indiana

New York

Philadelphia

Atlanta

Tier 4 - Not quite yet

Charlotte

Milwaukee

So there's definitely going to be a heck of a fight for those last two playoff spots. Also consider that an injury to a major star (LeBron, Billups, Arenas, Howard, Allen/Pierce, O'Neal (x2), JJ, etc) drops their team down a tier. Chicago, with their depth, is probably in the best position to take a hit by the injury bug. You could also make the argument that the addition of Horford and Law certainly upgrades Atlanta's depth, but another injury to JJ would certainly render the Hawks a very, very long shot.

So are we going to make the playoffs? That's why they play the games.

[frosgrim]

This is one of those debates that will need to be set on hold until the season starts as all we have right now are opinions. IMO, Horford can play center for the Hawks if we look at the other centers in the East.

Orlando- Howard

Miami- a broken-down Shaq

Charlotte- Emeka? Same size as Horford, but not as mobile nor nearly as polished offensively

Washington- Ettan Thomas and Haywood- eh, need to say more?

Philly- Dalembert, nothing special and around the same weight as Horford

NJ- Kristic 7' 235-240 lbs. Has an outside shot but not a post player. Horford can take him in the post and can guard his out side shooting

NYK- Curry, can be dominant but hasn't shown consistency. Is definitely bigger than anything we have though.

Boston- Nothing.

Indiana- JO? He's a thin 255. I don't think the 265 he's listed at is correct, maybe so, but he sure doesn't look it. They also play Foster who's a terrific banger, but so is Horford and they are of similar weights.

Toronto- Tey have Nesterovic who is enormous but has a limited game. Bosh is an All-Star, but plays more PF than C.

What I am getting at is there are what 2 guys in that list that Horford doesn't match up well against (Howard and Curry), but then again no one really does. I think this is the point that most people are making about Al playing center for the Hawks, the competition makes is what you have to look at, not the height and weight by themselves. Besides, there have been several 6'10" 250 pound centers that have been very successful NBA centers (yes Al is listed at 245, but you don't think he'll put on another 5 to 8 pounds of muscle this off-season?).

[Guest Walter]

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this is from the Indy Star. I think it's very realistic. who are we going to jump and why? Certainly none of the teams in the top 8. don't be a homer.

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We gain NBA-ready 3rd & 11th pick, supposedly were playoff bound "if only we were healthy?, our plethora of young talent is a year older and more experienced,,,

...and we're still not playoff bound in BK's 5th year (we traded next year's pick and have no cap space) of rebuilding?!?

I don't believe we make the playoffs either, but for other reasons:

1) fatally flawed roster - adjacent undersized post, lacking important varying skill sets, not enough top tier talent despite all the draft capitol

2) Head coaching

I love how after a 3rd and 11th pick, somehow the same people that said we were a playoff team last year up until April hedge their bets now. I don't get it, but I love it.

W

[Guest Walter]

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Tier 1 - Conference Title Contenders

Chicago

Detroit

Cleveland

Tier 2 - On their way toward the top (or on their way down)

Toronto

Miami

New Jersey

Tier 3 - Fighting for the 7 and 8 seeds

Washington

Orlando

Boston

Indiana

New York

Philadelphia

Atlanta

Tier 4 - Not quite yet

Charlotte

Milwaukee

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They handily smoked us last year. Maybe without Wallace.

W

[PureGreatness]

1. chicago

2. cleveland

3. toronto

4 boston

we can compete aginst every one else

[AnnArborHawk]

I'm assuming Wallace doesn't return and I don't see J-Rich leading a team, but they could easily be in tier 3, so I'll give you that one.

[pound4pound]

Dayam I love this time of year. There are so many if's on this squad and in the East that we could really move past 40 wins. One if isn't Woody but let's play anyway.

If Speedy can live up to the hype and stay healthy - then we have a very good defensive, pass-first, ankle breaking point guard. (Not his own ankles by the way)

If AC is the man we think he is, then Speedy can go ahead and break his own ankles.

If Smoove can play like a bat at of hell when Joe is healthy and when the games count, then we have two all-stars on this team.

If Marvin can be the player we saw in summer ball and stay on his feet after contact then our third option is solidified.

If the only thing keeping Sheldon from a double/double last year was that bum shoulder then we might be set at center.

If Horford can truly play the 5 at a near all-star level then it won't matter if Sheldon's shoulder was keeping him down last year.

I play this little "if" game because that is where we are as a franchise. I am a fan and by definition unrealistic. The unfortunate thing is the more if's a franchise has - the more likely it is not to make the playoffs. But a girl can dream can't she?

[TheDude]

Personally I think we make the playoffs because of one person- Marvin Williams. We'll get what we got last year from Joe, we'll get at least what we got from Josh.

But I fully expect Marvin to take that next step.

[BusBoyIsBack]

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I think the Hawks CAN compete this year. I just don't know if they can win, or atleast win to the point of being a .500 club.

the Hawks led the league in double digit losses last year guys with over 30. that's pathetic when you back out the 30 games they won.

I think this is a bigger project than we are letting on and it's compounded by the fact BK didn't land a legit Center this year and we don't have the capspace or draft pick next year to get one.

whether he addressed the PG need is debateable.

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What's not debateable is how pessimistic our fanbase was.

Over 30 double digit loss games?

How about the fact we only played a handful of games fully healthy?

Draft pick next year won't be in the lottery

[BusBoyIsBack]

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Personally I think we make the playoffs because of one person- Marvin Williams. We'll get what we got last year from Joe, we'll get at least what we got from Josh.

But I fully expect Marvin to take that next step.

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Honestly I thought if Marvin had a breakout year and Smoove showed what he showed at the end of the year combined with JJ staying healthy, we would have made the playoffs if we got completely unlucky in the lottery.

Now that we've added the two pieces we've added on top of that, we have the most promising young nucleus in the Eastern Conference and position by position perhaps the brightest young nucleus in the entire NBA.

[Dexmethylphenidate]

One thing's for sure and that is whenever they make the playoffs, they will be in it for a long long time.

[cyman3]

I like your tier system the best...

I think WASHINGTON has the upper hand.

but the 8th seed is UP FOR GRABS to any team in the east.

We are one of them.

[BusBoyIsBack]

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Maybe our projected starting lineup only player 4 or 5 games (Speedy, JJ, Marvin, Smoove, Zaza), but our healthy core 6 or 7 player around 15 games together. Unless you are a mutant I have no idea what you are talking about.

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And let's say JJ,Marvin, and Smoove did play 15 games together (which I don't think they did), do you think 15 out of 82 games is a lot??????