A question for Daddy D (that's Diesel to you)

[drzachary]

You have complained ad nauseum about Horford merely being a product of the 'hype machine.' I take this to mean that the opinion most of us have of him is based more on public relations than on-court performance.

My question to you is this: who at #3 could we have drafted that would have been the best pick based on on-court performance?

Clearly it cannot have been Yi, as pretty much all we have to go by with him are Zapruder films and man-vs-chair closed circuit television beatdowns.

Would it have been Conley? He was my preferred pick at #3, but I can't say with a straight face that he was not a product of the 'hype machine.'

[AtLaS]

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Clearly it cannot have been Yi, as pretty much all we have to go by with him are Zapruder films and man-vs-chair closed circuit television beatdowns.

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LMAO.

[mrhonline]

If he's honest, he'll say either Acie Law or Nick Fazekas. Both proved to be superior players at the collegiate level.

[HAWKEYE]

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Clearly it cannot have been Yi, as pretty much all we have to go by with him are Zapruder films and man-vs-chair closed circuit television beatdowns.

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(On the floor laughing!) Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Stop it man you're killing me! Ha! Ha! Ha!

[Guest Walter]

...at least I'm going to buy into hype about being a potential superstar and not whatever tier (or two) lower Horford will be OUT OF POSITION. No, this year isn't like 2005 when we blew it, but we did blow it.

I'd be happier about the Horford pick if we had a better center to align him with. Gasol (1st choice), Darko (2nd). They are 4.5s that would nicely compliment Horford whom I refer to as a 4.25 (indicating the amount of their on-court time, 50% or 25%, either should play at the center position). Horford (4.25) and JS (3.5) just don't cut it.

W

[drzachary]

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...at least I'm going to buy into hype about being a potential superstar and not whatever tier (or two) lower Horford will be OUT OF POSITION. No, this year isn't like 2005 when we blew it, but we did blow it.

I'd be happier about the Horford pick if we had a better center to align him with. Gasol (1st choice), Darko (2nd). They are 4.5s that would nicely compliment Horford whom I refer to as a 4.25 (indicating the amount of their on-court time, 50% or 25%, either should play at the center position). Horford (4.25) and JS (3.5) just don't cut it.

W

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I agree with your second paragraph, just not with your first. I think Yi is a classic case of 'we don't know much about him, so he COULD be great.'

IMO, Lascar's reasoning from another thread was pretty sound: we have two positions of need, and could have solidified one of them with our #3 pick. Instead, we sort-of filled both of them. I guess we drafted a 1.25 and a 4.25?

[exodus]

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man-vs-chair closed circuit television beatdowns.

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LOL

[AnakinJoe]

It would truly be frightening to believe the Hawks didn't know enough about Yi. They have interneational scouts. Yi has been playing pro ball for about 3-4 years. He's been on the "NBA radar" for at least 2 years. Don't be foolish to think that we have access to the same tools that teams use to make draft choices. I'd prefer to think that we decided to pass on Yi not because we were ignorant but because we were well-informed and decided that Horford would provide a more immediate contribution. Please don't tell me that we do not have the capacity to scout outside of the 48 contiguous states.

[drzachary]

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It would truly be frightening to believe the Hawks didn't know enough about Yi. They have interneational scouts. Yi has been playing pro ball for about 3-4 years. He's been on the "NBA radar" for at least 2 years. Don't be foolish to think that we have access to the same tools that teams use to make draft choices. I'd prefer to think that we decided to pass on Yi not because we were ignorant but because we were well-informed and decided that Horford would provide a more immediate contribution. Please don't tell me that we do not have the capacity to scout outside of the 48 contiguous states.

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First, there are two "wes" here. There's the "we" of Hawks fandom and the "we" of the Hawks team/management. Sure, the Hawks management has better scouting tools. However, we're not Hawks management, and we still make pronouncements as to whether players are pure-hype or the real deal. That was the point of my original post.

[Guest Walter]

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IMO, Lascar's reasoning from another thread was pretty sound: we have two positions of need, and could have solidified one of them with our #3 pick. Instead, we sort-of filled both of them. I guess we drafted a 1.25 and a 4.25?

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JJ is one of those players that you cannot define in my completely made up off the cuff system as he can play the 2 or 3 but has some skills of a Pg. What would I say his is? A 1.75-2.25?

It's disasterous to be so undersized (and interior skilled) at adjacent post positions. JJ could be able to make up for any Pg lackings Law may have 1.25 + 1.75 = 3 (as a 1 and 2 together should equal). We needed a center to make up for any interior lackings JS may have. Unfortunately, we drafted one with even more lackings at center than JS has at Pf. A 3.5 + a 4.25 = 7.75. A 4 and 5 should equal 9. We are a full position outmanned if we press forward with a Horford/JS frontcourt. This really is stupid IMO.

Get me a varied skill, super talented or great prospect 4.5 like Gasol or Darko and I'm on board, but not without it. It's a huge mistake. One in a long line of many. One not unlike the one we made last year.

W

[drzachary]

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It would truly be frightening to believe the Hawks didn't know enough about Yi. They have interneational scouts. Yi has been playing pro ball for about 3-4 years. He's been on the "NBA radar" for at least 2 years. Don't be foolish to think that we have access to the same tools that teams use to make draft choices. I'd prefer to think that we decided to pass on Yi not because we were ignorant but because we were well-informed and decided that Horford would provide a more immediate contribution. Please don't tell me that we do not have the capacity to scout outside of the 48 contiguous states.

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However, a secondary point is this: when examining the issue from the perspective of NBA team managerial teams, international players are not scouted as well as domestic players! In recent years past, this has resulted in international players being overvalued in some cases, undervalued in others. Agree?

[drzachary]

Walter, I like your numerical system, but it has a small flaw if you treat higher numbers as better: it doesn't work in the backcourt. We saw this with JJ at the point! IMO, you want your PG to be as close to 1.00 as you possibly can.

[Guest Walter]

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Walter, I like your numerical system, but it has a small flaw if you treat higher numbers as better: it doesn't work in the backcourt. We saw this with JJ at the point! IMO, you want your PG to be as close to 1.00 as you possibly can.

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...If you could go less than 1.0 maybe Chris Paul would be a 0.75.

Anyhow, inevitably you will have 1.25s and 4.75s out there. I would argue JJ is mostly a 1.75 with all his passing skills allowing any Pg to be a 1.25 and not become a liability to the team (meaning still equalling the total of "3" you want from your combined 1 and 2).

That's the crux for me. It's not so much about all your players representing positive integers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), it's about adjacent positions, maybe the team as a whole averaging out to be about the same as the positive integer average for that position or for the team. Law (1.25) and JJ (1.75) equal 3 if my projections are accurate. I think that's a good fit. Not considering talent...MIGHT even be a better fit than (Conley) 1 + 1.75 (see below).

Now consider the team as a whole. The positive integer average for any team should come to be roughly 1+2+3+4+5=15.

Our present projected starting lineup measures out as a 1.25, 1.75, 3.0 (MW) 3.5 (JS), Horford (4.25) = 13.75 That's a whole position plus. Maybe not HORRIBLE if .25 were the difference at every position, However ALL of the discrepency in average is at the 4 and 5 positions. NOT GOOD!

If we added Darko (or Gasol somehow). Let's say for MW for simplicity purposes. 1.25, 1.75, 3.5 (JS), Horford (4.25), Darko (4.5) = 15.25

We're MUCH closer to the average we conceivably should be seeking (and frankly if we were to err, I'd prefer err big, this may speak to your point DrZ...more value in big and come playoff time it would seem to pay off more). There is also no considerable (>1) difference with any two adjacent positions in this lineup. Horford and JS = 7.75, .75 over what the average at their positions would be, but they are bookended by players that are both lower than what their positions would indicate. We would soften this still less significant adjacent player difference with the right sort of players beside this discrepency.

About Law...the questions for me are:

1) Would JJ (and the team) profit more from a pure Pg that took ballhandling and opportunity creating opportunities from JJ or a Pg that can do most of that but who can also play the role of off guard on offense in a pinch? We'll see to some degree about this.

2) Is Law a 1.25 or 1.5? I think he's the former and with my limited knowledge of him can pass on any more definitive judgement to others while waiting to see for myself.

W

[Nicholasp27]

smoove is a 4, not a 3.5

and horford is AT LEAST a 4.5, seeing as how he's always played center

so they are at least an 8.5 together, which is not bad considering they can both be all-star level players

all-star 8.5 >>> decent 9

[Nicholasp27]

law=1.25

jj=2.25 (he can play sf better than pg)

marvin=3.25 (he can play pf some, as he has)

jj=4

horford=4.5-5 (we'll see exactly where

bench:

speedy=1

slim=1.75

chill=2.75

shelden=4.5

zaza=5 (never played pf in nba for more than 2mpg)

our starters = 15.25-15.75 depending on horford

we are fine

our forwards+center = 11.75-12.25, so basically we are spot on and we are slightly ahead in the backcourt, so we are good to go

our bench also = 15

[Diesel]

First... before you make conclusions on your question, I believe you have come up with the wrong conclusion.

I think Horford's on-court play was only symptomatic of what is to come. I think Horford will be a good rebounder and maybe a average PF. However, we're not in need of that.

My take is that if we have a choice between reaching for a PG (when we can get one at 11), taking a PF (who is going to be average) or taking a PF (who has allstar potential), I say that we were given this pick, it was stupid not to Gamble...

I would easily take my chances with Yi who is 7 foot, who I have seen on court and he has overwhelming speed and athleticism for his size as well as a good shot and some good fundamentals. He has loads of potential and the fact that he dominated lesser competition in China and played well enough against our best to make our best give him the thumbs up says to me.. this is the guy we should draft.

Before we won the lottery, our pick was plain and simple... best PG available at 11. At the time, we liked whoever would be there between Conley, Law, and Critt.

After we won the lottery, I would still think the same is true. NO need to reach for a PG who can't shoot. If you want Brevin Knight, he's cheap.

It was a great time to GAMBLE... Gambling does not include duplicating Shelden's skillset (with no progress).

What I got from the move was Vanilla. Sure, i can stomach it.. BUT we just went into Cold Stone with $10.00 that we found and we came out with Vanilla. I have had Vanilla all my life Dr. Z... I wanted to try something that I have not had... A drafted allstar... But we got Vanilla.

[gsuteke]

Horford is 2 inches shorter than Yi. big whoop. Horford is a post player. Yi is a perimeter player.

Duh.....

[Diesel]

Do you think Horford will be an Allstar for Atlanta?

What about Yi.. Would he have been an allstar for Atlanta?

That's the only question that really matters. Horford is a PF, probably not a Center. Horford is not a great defender nor is he a volume scorer in college.

What's there to talk about?

[Guest Walter]

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jj=2.25 (he can play sf better than pg)

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I think JJ acts like a Pg more than a Sf. Look at his assist numbers. They happen FAR more than his "slash" attempts (if you could measure that). I listed JJ as a 1.75 because for the longest time most everyone has conceeded he did not need to play next to a pure Pg. Why? Because while he's tall, he MUCH more resembles a Pg skill-wise than a Sf. He's a Sg mostly, but skill-wise he resembles a Pg more than any Sf. Got it?

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marvin=3.25 (he can play pf some, as he has)

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MW shouldn't play a lick of Pf, frankly. How many of his shots would be blocked at Pf? It might break an NBA record.

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jj=4

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I assume you mean JS. He's a 3.5 undoubtedly. Statistically 82 games .com he was just as good as a Sf as a Pf and played more at Sf. We may like him at Pf NOW because our other Pf option (SW) is less than our other Sf option (Sf), but don't confuse that with JS being a Pf.

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horford=4.5-5 (we'll see exactly where)

MOST sites indicate he is a "Pf" (4) and a lesser number indicate Pf/C (4.5). Average the two and you get 4.25. Simple math. Got it? SIMPLE MATH!

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our starters = 15.25-15.75 depending on horford

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[/indent]

You've got to ge kidding. How did WELL PROVEN undersized team with ZaZa draft a smaller Pf and call him a center, and somehow become half a position bigger than the rest of the team's in the league? You don't start small, draft smaller, and end up bigger. Doesn't work that way.

W

[Guest Walter]

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Horford is 2 inches shorter than Yi. big whoop. Horford is a post player.

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Just like SW.

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Yi is a perimeter player.

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Actually, Yi will end up being able to do it all, perimeter or post, combining 3 and 4 skill-sets. That's special. Dirk with athleticism.

Horford = Horance Grant. I like Horace Grant, but I don't draft him 3rd overall to play NBA center next to Josh Smith when I'm the 4th worst team and my two stars do NOT measure up to the league's elite. No way.

W