Fantasy League Question

[wildcat62]

Hi all, Longtime member here that rarely post. It seems I have always had a couple of Hawks players on my team over the years. So this year will be no different. I just recieved Marvin Williams via a trade and already had Josh Smith. So what can I / we expect from these two this season?

[drzachary]

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Hi all, Longtime member here that rarely post. It seems I have always had a couple of Hawks players on my team over the years. So this year will be no different. I just recieved Marvin Williams via a trade and already had Josh Smith. So what can I / we expect from these two this season?

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Marvin Williams: 28ppg (60% from the field, 55% from 3), 14rpg, 10apg.

Josh Smith: 45ppg, 26rpg, 18bpg.

[wildcat62]

I wish

[sturt]

wildcat, perhaps innocently enough, you are....

Fortunately, I'm not shy...

Smoove and Marvelous are going to improve over last season, if only because they're still developing and probably won't hit their peak for another 3-4 seasons--which is especially saying something for Smoove since he stepped up to a new level last season.

The problem for you as a 07-08 fantasy owner is that the Hawks are so deep that there's going to be a big temptation for Woodson to rotate an extra player or two on any given night, cutting into minutes.

And yet, I think there might be a consensus that the guys likely to get the most consistent minutes are (1) Johnson (2) Smoove and (3) Marvelous... in that order.

Probably some argument over Marvin's minutes, but my hunch is that this is the year that Marvin is given the rope to either earn his second-pick status, or to hang himself... and that means, minutes, especially early on in the season.

Doubt that it's ever a good idea to ask a team's fans what they expect a player will do... unless you've got some mathematical formula for taking into account their optimism... but here's mine, fwiw:

Smoove: Given his new confidence, and the coaching he's gotten over the off-season from guys like Olajuwon, about a 10% increase in PPG (ie 17.5), and within 5% of his output in 06-07 in other stat areas.

Marvelous: Go back and read what was said of him pre-draft, and you'll likely be led to conclude that this is a kid that has the tools, but just needs to get a comfort level and an assertiveness level that often comes with age... I don't think he breaks out in any Michael Jordan kind-of-way this year, but I believe, like Smoove last year, we'll see him take over some games this year and win a few with clutch play... so, I'll call it a 20% increase in all stats including PPG (ie, 15.5).

[wildcat62]

I do not wish to offend, only to seek the opinions of a fan base. Your reply was exactly what I'm looking for. Thank you.

[AHF]

I think the Josh Smith projection is pretty reasonable.

I definitely don't expect a 20% increase in everything for Marvin. I project him at around 14 ppg, 6 rpg and still substandard bpg and rpg. For fantasy purposes, he isn't going to significantly increase his value until he regularly starts hitting 3s.

For fantasy purposes, Marvin is still WAY behind Josh Smith. I project him at a bench player or marginal starter for next season. Josh Smith is a fantasy star.

[Peoriabird]

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I think the Josh Smith projection is pretty reasonable.

I definitely don't expect a 20% increase in everything for Marvin. I project him at around 14 ppg, 6 rpg and still substandard bpg and rpg. For fantasy purposes, he isn't going to significantly increase his value until he regularly starts hitting 3s.

For fantasy purposes, Marvin is still WAY behind Josh Smith. I project him at a bench player or marginal starter for next season. Josh Smith is a fantasy star.

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Looks like you need to add smoove in your user name! Only those guys and gal like Smoove this much and hate Marvin just as much as Diesel.

Lets look at Marvin's potential for a second. 1st everyone talks about Marvin's picture perfect jump shot form and how they are convinced that he will be a very good perimeter shooter. Secondly, he has excellent quickness, athleticism, & ball handling skills already which makes it easier for him to beat his man to the rim to finish or get fouled. He also is already an excellent free throw shooter so I expect for him to be closer to a 20 point scorer sooner, maybe next year rather than later. He is a better than average rebounder for his position and 6-7 rpg sounds about right. He will probably never average over 1 bpg but he might increase his steals per game this year.

[KB21]

I think 15.5 PPG and around 6 RPG will be very close to what Marvin does this year.

I think what a player does post AS break is a pretty good indication of what the player may do through the entire season in the subsequent year. During Marvin's rookie year, he averaged 11.1 PPG and 5.4 RPG after the AS break. His overall average in his second year was 13.1 PPG and 5.3 RPG. The numbers were very close, and he bested his scoring output by 2 PPG over his post AS break numbers from the previous season.

This past season, Marvin put up 14.5 PPG and 6.2 RPG post AS Break. He very well could make an even bigger improvement from his second year to his third year as he did from his first year to second year, but a lot of that will depend upon how much of a scoring role Woody decides to give him overall.

The thing with Marvin is, if his three point shot starts falling and he gains more confidence in that shot, his numbers could skyrocket.

I would say 15.5 PPG is his floor for this season, and he could very well end up in the 18-19 PPG range over the course of the season.

[beav]

I've had josh smith on my team the last two years (last year drafted him, and traded for him the year before)...

He has made a huge difference for me with blocks. He is pretty much the best shotblocker in the league outside of the center position(and frankly better than most centers). And given that blocks are the most scarce commodity and he gets you steals I'm usually a bit less concerned about his other numbers. I picked him in the late 3rd last year but am probably going to have to jump on him earlier this year.

[AHF]

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I think the Josh Smith projection is pretty reasonable.

I definitely don't expect a 20% increase in everything for Marvin. I project him at around 14 ppg, 6 rpg and still substandard bpg and rpg. For fantasy purposes, he isn't going to significantly increase his value until he regularly starts hitting 3s.

For fantasy purposes, Marvin is still WAY behind Josh Smith. I project him at a bench player or marginal starter for next season. Josh Smith is a fantasy star.

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Looks like you need to add smoove in your user name! Only those guys and gal like Smoove this much and hate Marvin just as much as Diesel.

Lets look at Marvin's potential for a second. 1st everyone talks about Marvin's picture perfect jump shot form and how they are convinced that he will be a very good perimeter shooter. Secondly, he has excellent quickness, athleticism, & ball handling skills already which makes it easier for him to beat his man to the rim to finish or get fouled. He also is already an excellent free throw shooter so I expect for him to be closer to a 20 point scorer sooner, maybe next year rather than later. He is a better than average rebounder for his position and 6-7 rpg sounds about right. He will probably never average over 1 bpg but he might increase his steals per game this year.

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Do you realize we are talking about fantasy basketball? 15 ppg and 6-7 rpg is not anything special. Smith adds 3s, steals, blocks, more points, more rebounds, and more assists.

This isn't even close. If you respond to this please address the fantasy basketball aspects of this analysis.

Remember, that real life impact does not mean jack in fantasy basketball. A defender who regularly gets burned gambling for steals and blocks is valuable in fantasy basketball for racking up steals and blocks. A defender who doesn't get steals or blocks but plays MUCH better defense is a worse fantasy defender.

[Spiral]

Not sure you play fantasy, but you earn points via filling up the stat sheet. (which Josh Smith does better than most players in the NBA) If it doesn't show up in the stat sheet, it doesn't matter in fantasy land.

AHF is one of the most well thought out folks here, he's not one I'd ever stereotype to have a "Smoove before the Hawks" mentality.

[Peoriabird]

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Not sure you play fantasy, but you earn points via filling up the stat sheet. (which Josh Smith does better than most players in the NBA) If it doesn't show up in the stat sheet, it doesn't matter in fantasy land.

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You are right, I don't play fantasy basketball but other than Blocks, Marvin's second year stats are comparable to Smoove's 2nd year. In any event, I was responding to the projected 14 ppg prediction

[wildcat62]

Great insight, keep it coming. This will be the 3rd year for J. Smith on my team. And I only expect to have M. Williams for the bench. We are in a 13th year keeper roto league. Smith does anchor my team in blocks and will for a long time hopefully. I traded R. Rondo for Marvin as I have plenty of guards.

[AHF]

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Not sure you play fantasy, but you earn points via filling up the stat sheet. (which Josh Smith does better than most players in the NBA) If it doesn't show up in the stat sheet, it doesn't matter in fantasy land.

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You are right, I don't play fantasy basketball but other than Blocks, Marvin's second year stats are comparable to Smoove's 2nd year. In any event, I was responding to the projected 14 ppg prediction

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Their stats were not comparable in their second years even outside of the large disparity in blocks. Josh had edges in nearly every statistical category and usually sizable ones. Part of that was due to injury but the per game averages generally favor Josh Smith as well.

208 blocks > 30 blocks

902 points > 839 points

64 steals > 52 steals

191 assists > 121 assists

531 rebounds > 337 rebounds

34 3pters > 11 3pters

The only real edge Marvin had was FT% - 81.5% > 71.9%.

[Peoriabird]

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208 blocks > 30 blocks

902 points > 839 points

64 steals > 52 steals

191 assists > 121 assists

531 rebounds > 337 rebounds

34 3pters > 11 3pters

The only real edge Marvin had was FT% - 81.5% > 71.9%.

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ppg Marvin 13.1 Smith 11.3

Spg Marvin .8 Smith .8

Apg Marvin 1.9 Smith 2.4

Rpg Marvin 5.3 Smith 6.6

[AHF]

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208 blocks > 30 blocks

902 points > 839 points

64 steals > 52 steals

191 assists > 121 assists

531 rebounds > 337 rebounds

34 3pters > 11 3pters

The only real edge Marvin had was FT% - 81.5% > 71.9%.

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ppg Marvin 13.1 Smith 11.3

Spg Marvin .8 Smith .8

Apg Marvin 1.9 Smith 2.4

Rpg Marvin 5.3 Smith 6.6

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Find me a league that is based on per game stats and that will be the first one I've ever seen of its kind.

Again, we are talking about fantasy basketball here.

The question is what you bring to a team and injuries are just lost time as far what you can contribute to a fantasy team.

[Peoriabird]

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Again, we are talking about fantasy basketball here.

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I'm sorry, I assume that we were staying on topic and trying to predict Marvin's numbers for next year. Unless you are assuming that he will break his hand next year too, per game averages are what you need to predict the future preformance right?

[leftwich]

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I'm sorry, I assume that we were staying on topic and trying to predict Marvin's numbers for next year. Unless you are assuming that he will break his hand next year too, per game averages are what you need to predict the future preformance right?

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Re-read the subject.

[AHF]

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Again, we are talking about fantasy basketball here.

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I'm sorry, I assume that we were staying on topic and trying to predict Marvin's numbers for next year. Unless you are assuming that he will break his hand next year too, per game averages are what you need to predict the future preformance right?

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That is pretty disingenous, IMO. You were comparing Josh Smith's numbers from his second year to Marvin's number's from his second year in that post and trying to say that Marvin's numbers from his second year were comparable to Josh's second year from a fantasy perspective - which they were not.

If you are trying to say that Marvin's fantasy numbers from his second year show that he will be as good as Josh Smith's third year fantasy numbers I would respectfully disagree. Josh Smith's third year fantasy numbers were among the best in the entire league.

Take a look at this:

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nba/news?s...oard-basketball

Josh Smith is projected at #23 overall for next year. He is the same age as Marvin. Marvin is not listed among the 86 players ranked there.

Goto the ESPN rater to see how Marvin and Josh Smith compared last season and see how big a jump it would be for Marvin to catch up to Josh's 3rd year performance. (ESPN fantasy analysts know the Hawks because they have some very good fantasy players and this is a stastical tool anyway):

ESPN Rater From Last Season

Note that Josh Smith ranked #15 overall. That is a fantasy superstar.

Note that Marvin ranks #160 overall. In a standard 12 team/10 starter league that makes Marvin a non-starter.

Per game, the only thing Marvin does as well as Josh in terms of fantasy at the same age is FT%. The only thing he does as well as Josh at the same year is ppg, spg and FT%. They are not even close as far as fantasy. Marvin does not project to standout at the SF position in terms of anything other than PPG and FT%. He figures to be productive at rebounding. His lack of 3pt shot and relative non-production in the steals, blocks, and assists categories just makes him a marginal fantasy player.

We are talking fantasy here so don't interpret this as me bashing Marvin. He just isn't going to be taken in the top 8 rounds of a sophisticated and impartial fantasy basketball league, IMO.

Maybe the experts will prove me wrong when they give their rankings for next year but I doubt it.

Remember one other factor when projecting Marvin for next year: Al Horford in the picture, Chills back healthy, JJ back healthy and the presence of a healthy Shelden Williams probably mean more competition for minutes for Marvin this year than he had last year and especially the second half of last year when he stood out (when there was no Horford, Chillz was down for a significant portion, and JJ was down for a significant portion).

I think he will take a step forward next year but I am not convinced it will result in a dramatic improvement statistically and that would be necessary for him to become a no-brainer fantasy starter let alone fantasy standout.