Hollinger gives hawks a 60% chance of playoffs

[DavidSomerset]

Has us as the #8 seed.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

[BHayley]

I have a hard time thinking Portland only has a 0.1 % chance of making it .The Hornets aren't amazing, and don't forget about the Nuggets

[DawsonsCreek]

They way our team looks now...I would say 50 percent. This team has been treading water and will continue to do so until some sort of change is made (whether it be a coach or a player move).

[cyman3]

the system is weird.

how do we have a 60% chance when Bobcats (a team w/ 1 less win than us) has 0% chance.

[prolific25]

The Bobcats have had an extremely soft schedule to begin the year and I believe they have something like 17 of their last 25 games on the road(where they can't win) which means that they are much more likely to get even worse as the year goes on.

[Nicholasp27]

this is all math-based and simulation-based

he took the stats for the year thus far, which includes strengths of schedules and such, and ran a simulation 5000 times for the rest of the season

then he put results on that page...so in 59.9% of those 5000 simulations, we made the playoffs; in the best one(s), we won 50 games; in the worst one(s), we won 24

[Nicholasp27]

note: these auto-update every night

so we'll see what they say tomorrow after our game tonite, etc

[BHayley]

Well it'd be impossible to do a prediction of this team, seeing that we can beat the best teams in the NBA, but lose to the Sonics and Wizards.

[Hawk88]

Cool link, and very Encouraging!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow, if we can make the playoffs, doubly great seeing as Pheonix will be receiving our non lottery draft pick. Makes the Joe Johnson trade look even better.

I bet Phoenix is hating that trade now, if for no other reason that they signed Diaw to that bloated contract! That stiff, even steve nash could only make him good for so long.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Very true. But Hollinger's simulation states that even with how we are playing now, we"re still most likely a high 30 win team, that barely gets in the playoffs. The reason why, is because of our usually good team defense, and the fact that the majority of the East have same consitency problems that we have.

That's why I don"t stress when I watch the Hawks. I know going in that I don't know which team will show up.

[Packfill]

Quote:

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Cool link, and very Encouraging!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow, if we can make the playoffs, doubly great seeing as Pheonix will be receiving our non lottery draft pick. Makes the Joe Johnson trade look even better.

I bet Phoenix is hating that trade now, if for no other reason that they signed Diaw to that bloated contract! That stiff, even steve nash could only make him good for so long.

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Correct me if I am wrong but is Phoenix not one of the top teams in the league? Did they not make the playoffs last year? Was the reason they have not won a championship because they lacked perimeter scorers or did it have something to do with a lack of interior defense, which obviously JJ would have provided?

[TexasPete]

The formula hasn't taken into account the Woody factor. No simulation is complete without factoring in the incompetant head coach.