Childress needs to hit the road

[Guest]

I imagine there is a stats on 82games.com that shows the % minutes that Chill plays with each player on the team. Shelden, Lo, Za all play insignificant minutes for the overall team so I think it would be safe to say Chill only played a fraction with those guys.

[TroyMcClure]

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I can't help you. The analogy is sound. You obviously haven't tried to get a shot off on a 6'5" guy in awhile, huh? It really helps if you can release from above your face. The inability to do that is a real rhythm killer in a possession. That's the crux of the argument. Oh, and we really don't need him, he's weak, we suck and we should dump him while we can, to get a better mix as a team... I think. That's my opinion.

Good use of statistics here. I know its your opinion and you can express it that way, but I don't see how this has to do with me critiquing Ex's argument through statistics.

I find it funny, while you said a couple posts ago that you don't team up with Ex often, it appears you team against me in a majority of things even if its a trivial topic. Not really pertinent to this thread, but aside from not liking BK I can't recall something you have agreed with me on.

You can rail on his stats all day if you want. I hate them. You don't make points with stats. You use them to illustrate to an educated mind, imo. Ex has said many ways why Chillz is a negative. He's now trying to use the stats to show you something that you should already know. Getting into a battle of the stats is a little silly when he(chillz) obviously doesn't pass the eye test. That's all I need.

I don't team up against anyone. These are words, man. We probably agree more than you think, btw. I think it may be a matter of conversational style differences that put us at odds. It's that way in most cases, imo.

[exodus]

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I imagine there is a stats on 82games.com that shows the % minutes that Chill plays with each player on the team. Shelden, Lo, Za all play insignificant minutes for the overall team so I think it would be safe to say Chill only played a fraction with those guys.

The player pairs link shows how much he has played with each player. I didn't really check but i do know that is an issue because of what i have seen with Acie.

When i was looking at the 5 man units not long ago i noticed that the majority of Acie's minutes were coming from lineups that didn't even have enough minutes to qualify for their list. At that time it was under 22 minutes of floor time. The majority of his negative effect was from those lineups.

[HawkNJersey]

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Certainly, one of Marvin Childress and Josh Williams needs to go. I'll give you two good reasons:

1. 22 yo - 17.6, 8.1, 3.6, 3.1

2. 22 yo - 9.6, 10.0

^^^The Hawks need to assemble complimentary pieces around those two players, since both should and likely will be here for another three seasons.

You need a defensive big man and another true shooter on the wing, skills neither Childress nor Williams offer at the moment.

Great post and thats the feeling I have too.

[exodus]

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Certainly, one of Marvin Childress and Josh Williams needs to go. I'll give you two good reasons:

1. 22 yo - 17.6, 8.1, 3.6, 3.1

2. 22 yo - 9.6, 10.0

^^^The Hawks need to assemble complimentary pieces around those two players, since both should and likely will be here for another three seasons.

You need a defensive big man and another true shooter on the wing, skills neither Childress nor Williams offer at the moment.

Great post and thats the feeling I have too.

Yeah it is pretty clear those two will be here awhile.

I am not convinced at all that Marvin is a keeper. I am convinced that Childress isn't.

[HawkNJersey]

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Certainly, one of Marvin Childress and Josh Williams needs to go. I'll give you two good reasons:

1. 22 yo - 17.6, 8.1, 3.6, 3.1

2. 22 yo - 9.6, 10.0

^^^The Hawks need to assemble complimentary pieces around those two players, since both should and likely will be here for another three seasons.

You need a defensive big man and another true shooter on the wing, skills neither Childress nor Williams offer at the moment.

Great post and thats the feeling I have too.

Yeah it is pretty clear those two will be here awhile.

I am not convinced at all that Marvin is a keeper. I am convinced that Childress isn't.

I'm with you on this argument...

I dread the 7-5 minute mark in the first quarter....

He gives us absolutely nothing on D and he needs others, to contribute on offense. He couldn't even post up...when we played GS, with their 2 guards.

[Dexmethylphenidate]

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Certainly, one of Marvin Childress and Josh Williams needs to go. I'll give you two good reasons:

1. 22 yo - 17.6, 8.1, 3.6, 3.1

2. 22 yo - 9.6, 10.0

^^^The Hawks need to assemble complimentary pieces around those two players, since both should and likely will be here for another three seasons.

You need a defensive big man and another true shooter on the wing, skills neither Childress nor Williams offer at the moment.

Great post and thats the feeling I have too.

Yeah it is pretty clear those two will be here awhile.

I am not convinced at all that Marvin is a keeper. I am convinced that Childress isn't.

I'm with you on this argument...

I dread the 7-5 minute mark in the first quarter....

He gives us absolutely nothing on D and he needs others, to contribute on offense. He couldn't even post up...when we played GS, with their 2 guards.

Don't forget the 3rd quarter also. Pretty much most game slide from there on out.

[Guest]

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Getting into a battle of the stats is a little silly when he(chillz) obviously doesn't pass the eye test. That's all I need.

The eye test is not always the best. The eye test shows that over the course of a week, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .270 hitter is 1 hit. Stats are very important at proving your point. For example, saying that Jamaal Tinsely is a bad shooter is one thing, but if you show his shooting % in comparison to the average NBA player or that he ranks in the bottom 10% in the league for NBA shooting %, you are backing up your claim. Stats reinforce the eye test and even at some times dismiss it. Like the eye test will probably show you that Allen Iverson is a good scorer and carries his team, but stats tell the other side of the story.

[AHF]

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Blatche comes off the bench and he gave you that guy as an example. There is also Matt Carroll (who many on this site have wanted), Sefolosha, Ira Newble, Quinton Ross, Al Thornton, Warrick, Bobby Simmons...I am not exactly sure why you wanted people to show you SFs coming off the bench that have across the board a negative effect on the players. And I could have continued the list but I stopped at Milwaukee when looking at teams.

Rather than continuing to dance with hypotheticals here are some actual numbers:

Matt Carroll - Felton 2.4% worse; Richardson .9% worse; Wallace 2% worse; Okafor 2.7% better

Sefolosha - Hinrich 4% better; Gordon 4.5% worse; Deng .1% better; Wallace 7% better

Ross - Mobley .3% worse; Maggette .5% better; Kaman .5% worse

Thornton - Mobley 2.1% better; Maggette .1% better; Kaman .7% better

Newble - Gibson 8.7% worse; Hughes 5% better; James 2.6% worse; Gooden 4% worse; Ilgauskas 4.7% worse

Warrick - Navarro .8% worse; Miller 1.2% worse; Gay 4.7% worse; Gasol 2% worse

Simmons - Mo Williams 2.5% worse; Redd .9% worse; Villanueva 5.7% worse; Bogut 3.7% better

[exodus]

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Blatche comes off the bench and he gave you that guy as an example. There is also Matt Carroll (who many on this site have wanted), Sefolosha, Ira Newble, Quinton Ross, Al Thornton, Warrick, Bobby Simmons...I am not exactly sure why you wanted people to show you SFs coming off the bench that have across the board a negative effect on the players. And I could have continued the list but I stopped at Milwaukee when looking at teams.

Rather than continuing to dance with hypotheticals here are some actual numbers:

Matt Carroll - Felton 2.4% worse; Richardson .9% worse; Wallace 2% worse; Okafor 2.7% better

Sefolosha - Hinrich 4% better; Gordon 4.5% worse; Deng .1% better; Wallace 7% better

Ross - Mobley .3% worse; Maggette .5% better; Kaman .5% worse

Thornton - Mobley 2.1% better; Maggette .1% better; Kaman .7% better

Newble - Gibson 8.7% worse; Hughes 5% better; James 2.6% worse; Gooden 4% worse; Ilgauskas 4.7% worse

Warrick - Navarro .8% worse; Miller 1.2% worse; Gay 4.7% worse; Gasol 2% worse

Simmons - Mo Williams 2.5% worse; Redd .9% worse; Villanueva 5.7% worse; Bogut 3.7% better

Looks like Newble is the best comparison. Fittingly enough he just got waived. However he did have a big game against the Hawks the last time we played them.

[Plainview1981]

I don't care. Any stat that says Tmac is worth .7PPG when he is on the court is worthless. Also, should I remind you that JJ and Childress were both logging minutes last year for this team? It's not like anybody new is here other than Al and Bibby and Bibby has only been here 8 games? I'm curious to know why JC hurts JJ so much this year when it appears he didn't do so the first two years.

It's garbage. Pure garbage. It's not JC's fault that JJ has shot poorly and it's not likely the minutes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/splits?playerId=1007

JJ has shot poorly since the start of the season pretty much.

Your argument would probably be more believable if Childress was new player to the team.

At this point, I don't give a crap if they trade Childress or anybody else. Honestly, I'm tired of the excuses made for JJ. I think he hasn't given his all. He has complained about help and he is unhappy as a Hawk, and I don't think the Bibby trade changed that. I mean, the team isn't improving since Bibby came here. The offense is got better, but the defense has got alot worse.

Unless the Hawks land a superstar, you have to wonder if this is the JJ you're going to get until his contract is up and he leaves. It looks like his tenure as a Hawk will go down as a failure.

It's not all JJ's fault either. The Hawks lack of an offense is also largely to blame. That is what has finally caught up to the team. Even with Bibby the team still turns the ball over at a really high rate and the Hawks will still get embarrassed by the top coaches.

[AHF]

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I don't care. Any stat that says Tmac is worth .7PPG when he is on the court is worthless. Also, should I remind you that JJ and Childress were both logging minutes last year for this team? It's not like anybody new is here other than Al and Bibby and Bibby has only been here 8 games? I'm curious to know why JC hurts JJ so much this year when it appears he didn't do so the first two years.

It's garbage. Pure garbage. It's not JC's fault that JJ has shot poorly and it's not likely the minutes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/splits?playerId=1007

JJ has shot poorly since the start of the season pretty much.

Your argument would probably be more believable if Childress was new player to the team.

This is Chill's track record:

'06-'07: T. Lue -1.7%; JJ 0%; Smith +1.1%; Marvin -1.4%; Shelden -6.8%; Zaza -1.5%

'05-'06: T. Lue +2%; JJ +.3%; Smith -1.2%; Marvin -2%; Harrington +.6%; Zaza -2.1%

[Plainview1981]

Could you explain please.

I mean, JJ has shot 45% and 47% the last two years and now that he is shooting 40% it's somebody elses fault? When I watch JJ I see a player this year that thinks he has AI dribbling ability and forces up one long range shot after another. In fact, JJ's reminds me alot of AI's years with the Sixers... Other than JJ's lack of ability to break down defenders of course.

[jhay610]

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I see a lot of people who are getting fooled by Childress' high shooting percentage. They think that makes him a good offensive player. It doesn't. You have to consider the effect he has on the other players. Childress can't create at all and kills spacing. That is why...

JJ shoots 4.5% worse when Childress is playing.

Smith shoots 3.1% worse when Childress is playing.

Marvin shoots 2.6% worse when Childress is playing.

AJ shot 2.9% worse when Childress was playing.

Lue shot 3.6% worse when Childress was playing.

http://82games.com/0708/0708ATLP.HTM

ASS-IN-9...

[Plainview1981]

I agree. There is a reason a franchise that has won for over 10 years wants Childress and people that are on this board have nothing to do with the NBA. If Childress hurts a team so much, the Spurs wouldn't have any interest. That counts for more than a squawkers stats.

Exdous says Childress doesn't fit with this team. I asked, who does? Who outside of a supertar fits into a team that more or less does nothing well? I mean, the team isn't on pace to win more games despite the possible ROY. They're still getting their teeth kicked in even with the addition of a PG that was supposed to help make a playoff push. I guess the only one that fits this team is a heartless SG that is overrated and overpaid.

If people think trading Childress for a decent center is going to improve this team very much they're wrong. The Hawks will have less of a bench, will still turn the ball over, will still be poorly coached, will still not play good defense overall. If the Hawks do trade Childress they will need a center AND a bench scorer. The Hawks bench is terrible enough right now.

Can you trade Childress if for a decent center for a and another scorer? Probably not.

Like I said, if Childress hurts a team so much the Spurs wouldn't want him. They have more creditability than anybody here including myself. There is nothing else to really say. No stat that anybody produces will matter to me more than what the Spurs would probably be saying.

[exodus]

Thanks for that astute analysis. I guess you really told me.

[TroyMcClure]

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If Childress hurts a team so much, the Spurs wouldn't have any interest.

Not true, Hot. The Spurs have shooters to spare. They also have one of the more dominant post players in the game's history. They could use Childress. He's a smart guy. He's just not right for us at all. There are only a handful of teams he could help. We're not in that handful.

[jhay610]

I'm not a big Childress fan. I hated the pick when it was made. I thought it was way early for him.

That said, he has surprised me in that he can do some things that really help out. While he has his flaws (horrendous-looking jump shot, doesn't hit the d-boards hard enough, not a great defender, classic 'tweener' in that he doesnt have the size to be a real post threat but doesnt have the ball skills or shot to be an effective perimeter player) he has a knack for offensive rebounding, put-backs, and isn't afraid to stick his nose in and get a loose ball. Plus, he has the athleticism, size and ability to finish that makes him a significant threat in transition in an up-and-down game.

He doesn't, as you said, spread the floor, but when he's on the floor with shooters he can be very effective with scrap/garbage points and long rebounds. When he's on the floor with distributors (which outside of AC and maybe Bibby we have none) he could be especially effective because he seems particularly adept at finding open passing lanes around the rim and in the short corner, areas he can be very successful from.

Those kinds of stats you submitted are for the fantasy geeks and star wars bloggers that never played basketball. They can be manipulated in such a way to prove whatever point the author chooses. I'm sure I could come up with some far-fetched stats to prove why John Koncack was a better post than Kevin Willis but all you need to do is watch games and you'll see it isn't true.

There are many reasons why they are meaningless, some of which have been mentioned here (principally, Woody's sub patterns). I guarantee you that coaches and players could care less about these types of things. You can watch game film and figure out who's doing what out there.

Besides, those percentages you pointed to were so small that I would submit to you that they are just expected variance and hardly statistically significant at all.

I hope that helps.

[Plainview1981]

Who could help the Hawks? You guys thought Bibby was going to make a difference and he hasn't. NOBODY outside of Lebron or Kobe or somebody like that can REALLY help the Hawks the they're setup right now. My point is obviously there are problems a hellva lot bigger than Childress. ALOT bigger.

[exodus]

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Besides, those percentages you pointed to were so small that I would submit to you that they are just expected variance and hardly statistically significant at all.

If that is the case then surely it would be easy to find a player who effects his teamates similarly to Childress. So far the only one who has tried is AHF and his best comparison was Newble which should be self explanatory.

The fact that Childress shoots 58% but the team overall shoots nearly 3% worse when he is on the floor might argue that the statistics aren't insignificant at all.

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but when he's on the floor with shooters he can be very effective with scrap/garbage points and long rebounds.

if you have any ideas about how we can get said shooters and get a defensive big while still retaining Smith and Childress i would sure like to see them.