What happends if Smith only takes a 1 year deal...

[exodus]

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It's done exo. Debating over .3 on either side is where it ends. Good stuff

It was over when you had to resort to making stuff up and pretending i said it.

[DawsonsCreek]

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It's done exo. Debating over .3 on either side is where it ends. Good stuff

It was over when you had to resort to making stuff up and pretending i said it.

I only made the marvin williams example because you brought in the childress example. Like I said I enjoyed it and Ill leave it at that. Im ready for a new topic.

[DawsonsCreek]

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It was just a fantasy which would you rather have. Nothing more.

Easy to lose sight of that in a 100 post thread.

W

I hear ya.

[Swish]

Take it this way-

If you have to win a game RIGHT NOW, and have to choose, do you put in Smoove or Big Al?

Case closed.

(Its obvious, right? )

[crimedog]

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It would not be ridicululous to say that you (GMs) would keep Al over Smoove.

Al has two things in his favor. He rebounds slightly better and he's a "4.25" (Pf/C) rather than a "3.5" (PF/Sf). Otherwise JS is better with a higher ceiling. JS's TENDEX the last two years was higher than Horford's rookie TENDEX per48 and his playoff TENDEX was higher. In short, JS was (and since then has been) better than Horford a year younger and less experienced than Horford.

W

I agree with you that we would probably be best off keeping both.

I also think you highlight a good point. People who aren't Smith fans tend to base their arguments in things that aren't really based in the numbers, "he isn't a good man defender" is what Dawson said, of course its not really substantiated by anything and as ex' showed. "he doesn't bring it every night" which doesn't talk about his actual impact, more about his potential impact but it looks to me like he is bringing it when he's chasing down point guards in a full court sprint. "he has poor work ethic" which is why he went from a super-raw rookie to one of the more well rounded players in the league. "he has an attitude problem" like it or not, he's fiery - the team often takes its cues from him like in game 3 or the philly game earlier in the season.

[Traceman]

Al is a proven winner, he has an incredible attitude, he has a high basketball IQ, he is bigger, he is stronger and he is more fundamentally sound. Those are all plusses I would give him over Smoove.

Al had a lot of turnovers last year but most of them were TOs that he committed while trying to do the right thing. He has shown the ability to learn from his mistakes and he doesn't keep making the same mistakes over and over again. His game is not nearly as flashy and he is not going to make nearly as many highlight reel plays and he is not going to fill the stat sheet like Smoove does but at the end of the day, I can see why a GM would think that his overall steady contributions outweigh the great plays Smoove makes that are somewhat mitigated by the bonehead mistakes he makes.

All that said, this was a "who would you RATHER have discussion" when the thread started and not a "we need to move one or the other" discussion. I agree 100% that BOTH are keepers. I would contine to start them both up front and find a defensive Center (Kwame Brown?) to compliment what Zaza does off the bench. I also think Smoove can play SOME SF in certain situations but unless we get Okur from UT (or the like), I think we are MUCH better off with him playing PF most of the time.

[exodus]

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He has shown the ability to learn from his mistakes and he doesn't keep making the same mistakes over and over again.

As far as I am concerned Horfords absolute refusal to try and use his quickness to drive past bigger, slower players is just as big a mistake as smith shooting 3s.

[Traceman]

We don't know if Al was being coached to put the ball on the floor and go to the hoop last year. How many Centers ARE coached to do that? Perhaps he was but perhaps that is something to come later in his development. As for Smoove, we KNOW that he has been told to stop shooting 3's for YEARS.

[exodus]

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We don't know if Al was being coached to put the ball on the floor and go to the hoop last year.

And you are the guy defending Woody? Do you think Horford was being coached to stand around with the ball 15 feet from the basket looking for someone to pass to while his man is 5 feet off him and the other defeders are overplaying the passing lanes while the clock runs down?

At some point you have to use some sense and show some balls. When you have a big slow stiff like Big Z on you it doesn't take a high BBall IQ to know you can beat him off the dribble whenever you want. When Horford got pulled in one Cavs game and Smith went to center Smith did exactly that, forcing them to take Big Z out of the game.

[crimedog]

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Al is a proven winner, he has an incredible attitude, he has a high basketball IQ, he is bigger, he is stronger and he is more fundamentally sound. Those are all plusses I would give him over Smoove.

Al had a lot of turnovers last year but most of them were TOs that he committed while trying to do the right thing. He has shown the ability to learn from his mistakes and he doesn't keep making the same mistakes over and over again. His game is not nearly as flashy and he is not going to make nearly as many highlight reel plays and he is not going to fill the stat sheet like Smoove does but at the end of the day, I can see why a GM would think that his overall steady contributions outweigh the great plays Smoove makes that are somewhat mitigated by the bonehead mistakes he makes.

This is what I was talking about. In this debate the only thing Al has going for him would be something that is completely unquatnifiable like "proven winner" or "incredible attitude" or "high bball IQ".

You also have an interesting double standard regarding basketball IQ where Al gets a pass on his relatively low volume of offensive production compared to his TOs because he is "trying to do the right thing" but Smith's relatively higher volume of offensive production is matched by an increase in TOs and that is him being "boneheaded".

[Traceman]

No, I just think it is entirely conceivable that a guy who plays PF and Center will have to be coached to put the ball on the floor. He didn't do it in college and he probably didn't do it in high school either. Smoove has played plenty on the perimeter and putting the ball on the floor and going to the hoop is something that he is obviously more comfortable with.

[exodus]

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He didn't do it in college and he probably didn't do it in high school either.

One thing he didn't do in college (or summer league or preseason or during the regular season) is score a lot of points. You have to have the mentality to score to be a scorer.

Amare came into the NBA beating guys off the dribble and attacking the rim. I seriously doubt he needed a coach to tell him to do it. He did it because he is a scorer and scorers look to score. They don't stand around holding the ball looking for someone to pass to while their man is 5 feet off them.

[Traceman]

1)Horford is a superior rebounder.

2) Horford is a better shooter beyond dunks and layups. Period. Horford shot 44% on shots from 3-15 ft and 36% on shots beyond 15 feet but inside the 3 pt line. Smoove shot 27% on shots from 3-15 ft and 30% on shots beyond 15 feet but inside the 3 pt line. But that doesn't even tell the whole story regarding how much better of a shooter that Horford is. According to the "Hotspots" data at nba.com, Horford shot 44% or better from 5 of the 8 hotspots inside the 3pt line (excluding dunks and layups). Conversely, 37% was the HIGHEST percentage that Smoove shot from ANY of the 8 hot spots.

3) Horford doesn't turn the ball over as much as Smoove. Al turned it over too much but he still only averaged 1.7 TOs per game AS A ROOKIE versus Smoove's 3 TOs per game as a 4th year player. In the playoffs, when the pressure and the spotlight were on, he played 40 mpg and averaged only 2 TOs per game while averaging nearly 4 apg. Conversely, Smoove played 34 mpg in the playoffs and averaged nearly 4 TOs per game and only 3 apg.

All that said, some things are not quantifiable but they are pretty obvious and they have value. Things like "BB IQ", "boneheadedness," attitude and "proven winner" fit into that category.

[exodus]

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1)Horford is a superior rebounder.

Horford is marginally better on the defensive glass. His big advantage is on the offensive glass since he isnt standing around at the 3 pt line all the time.

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2) Horford is a better shooter beyond dunks and layups. Period.

So is almost every else in the NBA. But it doesn't matter much if he doesn't shoot.

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3) Horford doesn't turn the ball over as much as Smoove.

That is just flat wrong. Per posession their turnover ratio was identical. Horford just didn't get as many touches and didn't do much with the ball when he did get it.

Also Horford had more turnovers than assists on the season. Smith had more assists than turnovers.

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Smoove played 34 mpg in the playoffs and averaged nearly 4 TOs per game and only 3 apg.

Smith was going against the DPOY. I have a feeling he might have done a bit better against Kendrick Perkins.

Bottom line is that Horford has never been a scorer. it is funny how people automatically assume he will improve his scoring dramatically when he hasn't shown much interest in scoring at any level.

[Traceman]

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Horford is marginally better on the defensive glass. His big advantage is on the offensive glass since he isnt standing around at the 3 pt line all the time.

Hmm, comes back to that old BB IQ thing again doesn't it? Would you rather have Smoove crashing the offensive glass or standing at the 3 pt line waiting to take an ill-advised 3?

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That is just flat wrong. Per posession their turnover ratio was identical. Horford just didn't get as many touches and didn't do much with the ball when he did get it.

Also Horford had more turnovers than assists on the season. Smith had more assists than turnovers.

Al still didn't turn it over as much. In addition, his A/TO ratio was 20th among Centers while Smoove's was 80th among forwards (just ahead of Marvin at 85).

[DawsonsCreek]

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Take it this way-

If you have to win a game RIGHT NOW, and have to choose, do you put in Smoove or Big Al?

Case closed.

(Its obvious, right?

)

Heck someone could say f yall, I want Speedy Claxton. You may think hes insane but its all relative on whats considered obvious.

[exodus]

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Hmm, comes back to that old BB IQ thing again doesn't it? Would you rather have Smoove crashing the offensive glass or standing at the 3 pt line waiting to take an ill-advised 3?

Obviously i would rather have Smith inside but it gets kind of crowded when you have Childress, Horford, Smith and Zaza all hanging around inside at various times while we have so few shooters to space out the floor.

That is one of the many reasons i want Childress gone. If we get a legit shooter in here hanging out on the perimeter then it will be less likely Smith will be out there.

As far as BBall IQ goes turning down open shots so often doesn't speak too highly about Horford's IQ.

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Al still didn't turn it over as much.

Yes he did. Hollinger's turnover ratio (turnovers per possession) is identical for both players.

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In addition, his A/TO ratio was 20th among Centers while Smoove's was 80th among forwards (just ahead of Marvin at 85).

obviously forwards in general are far better playmakers than centers so that comparison is irrelevant. You are comparing Horford to guys like Curry and Dalembert while comparing Smith go guys like Lebron and Tmac. not impressed.

[Cwell]

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He didn't do it in college and he probably didn't do it in high school either.

One thing he didn't do in college (or summer league or preseason or during the regular season) is score a lot of points. You have to have the mentality to score to be a scorer.

Amare came into the NBA beating guys off the dribble and attacking the rim. I seriously doubt he needed a coach to tell him to do it. He did it because he is a scorer and scorers look to score. They don't stand around holding the ball looking for someone to pass to while their man is 5 feet off them. Horford never needed to be a scorer on his past team.Florida was team oriented to the max.

[crimedog]

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1)Horford is a superior rebounder.

2) Horford is a better shooter beyond dunks and layups. Period. Horford shot 44% on shots from 3-15 ft and 36% on shots beyond 15 feet but inside the 3 pt line. Smoove shot 27% on shots from 3-15 ft and 30% on shots beyond 15 feet but inside the 3 pt line. But that doesn't even tell the whole story regarding how much better of a shooter that Horford is. According to the "Hotspots" data at nba.com, Horford shot 44% or better from 5 of the 8 hotspots inside the 3pt line (excluding dunks and layups). Conversely, 37% was the HIGHEST percentage that Smoove shot from ANY of the 8 hot spots.

3) Horford doesn't turn the ball over as much as Smoove. Al turned it over too much but he still only averaged 1.7 TOs per game AS A ROOKIE versus Smoove's 3 TOs per game as a 4th year player. In the playoffs, when the pressure and the spotlight were on, he played 40 mpg and averaged only 2 TOs per game while averaging nearly 4 apg. Conversely, Smoove played 34 mpg in the playoffs and averaged nearly 4 TOs per game and only 3 apg.

All that said, some things are not quantifiable but they are pretty obvious and they have value. Things like "BB IQ", "boneheadedness," attitude and "proven winner" fit into that category.

I think ex' summed it up pretty well. Smith is on the perimeter in certain sets but you make it seem like the guy shoots below 40%, most of the time when Chil is in the game, Smith stands on the perimeter because there isn't really another way of doing it.

Horford is a better jump shooter which is great for him but as you point out, he isn't as good of an inside scorer.

On TOs: Smith's turnovers have increased with his offensive responsibility. He makes too many stupid mistakes but Al hasn't been asked to do much on offense so assuming he would be any better is folly when he is also turnover prone given the lack of defensive attention he recieves.

Look, the only reason I want to point this out is that there are people on this board who seem to take the approach that "Smith can leave because we have Al and he is going to be better anyway".

I tend to think they complement eachother fairly well but if we lost Smith, we'd be losing a big chunk of production that wouldn't be replaced by Al or any other player very easily.

[exodus]

Horford never needed to be a scorer on his past team.Florida was team oriented to the max.

Back in the day UNLV had a monster team but that didn't stop Larry Johnson from putting up big numbers. UCON had a strong team but that didn't stop Okafor from averaging 18 ppg.

Ben Gordon is the top scorer on the Bulls and he was Okafor's teamate in college. What are those great Florida scorers doing in the NBA?