What happends if Smith only takes a 1 year deal...

DawsonsCreek · July 9, 2008

Then what. I dont know what the clippers are prepared to offer or if hes even their top priority. I dont think the hawks can afford to not get anything in return next year because you got to figure that they have to decide on Marvins situation and Joes extension too. Either lock him up this year(long term) or Sign and trade this year. The price will be more expensive next year, he can leave without the chance to match and probably be able to go to a better situation then the clippers.

jezmund · July 9, 2008

That would be awful. Can you trade a player who is playing for the qualifying offer? We better create some real cap space next year b/c I think we'd lose his bird rights too.

AnnArborHawk · July 9, 2008

I don't think it's likely that he only takes the one year deal, but in the event that he leans that way, I think we have to SnT to get something in return.

Josh's cap hold is about $6.5 mil (which would be the one year offer he'd sign to become a UFA next year). If $11M for 5 years is on the table from the Hawks, he'd be giving up close to $5M this year hoping to make that back over the next 4. So if he does sign the qualifying offer, he's probably hoping for $13M+ per year.

mrhonline · July 9, 2008

He won't, but Childress might.

exodus · July 9, 2008

Quote:

Then what. I dont know what the clippers are prepared to offer or if hes even their top priority. I

dont

think the hawks can afford to not get anything in return next year because you got to figure that they have to decide on Marvins situation and Joes extension too. Either lock him up this year(long term) or Sign and trade this year. The price will be more expensive next year, he can leave without the chance to match and probably be able to go to a better situation then the clippers.

Smith's QO is only $3.1 million I believe which is so far below his market value that i don't think there is any chance he would take it.

DawsonsCreek · July 9, 2008

Quote:

Then what. I dont know what the clippers are prepared to offer or if hes even their top priority. I

dont

think the hawks can afford to not get anything in return next year because you got to figure that they have to decide on Marvins situation and Joes extension too. Either lock him up this year(long term) or Sign and trade this year. The price will be more expensive next year, he can leave without the chance to match and probably be able to go to a better situation then the clippers.

Smith's QO is only $3.1 million I believe which is so far below his market value that i don't think there is any chance he would take it.

Only if he feels he can make alot more (3 or 4 mill more per year over the next 5) next year then what he is offered this year. We just will have to wait and see what the figure is.

exodus · July 9, 2008

Quote:

Then what. I dont know what the clippers are prepared to offer or if hes even their top priority. I

dont

think the hawks can afford to not get anything in return next year because you got to figure that they have to decide on Marvins situation and Joes extension too. Either lock him up this year(long term) or Sign and trade this year. The price will be more expensive next year, he can leave without the chance to match and probably be able to go to a better situation then the clippers.

Smith's QO is only $3.1 million I believe which is so far below his market value that i don't think there is any chance he would take it.

Only if he feels he can make alot more (3 or 4 mill more per year) next year then what he is offered this year. We just will have to wait and see what the figure is.

The minimum he would probably get offered now is $12 million/yr. He would have to get $14 million/yr next season just to break even (not even taking into account the present value of money).

There is no guarantee that the teams under the cap nex season will be interested in him enough to pay him that kind of money. Plus there is always a big risk turning down a long term deal to sign a 1 year deal (see Danny Manning).

DawsonsCreek · July 9, 2008

Quote:

Then what. I dont know what the clippers are prepared to offer or if hes even their top priority. I

dont

think the hawks can afford to not get anything in return next year because you got to figure that they have to decide on Marvins situation and Joes extension too. Either lock him up this year(long term) or Sign and trade this year. The price will be more expensive next year, he can leave without the chance to match and probably be able to go to a better situation then the clippers.

Smith's QO is only $3.1 million I believe which is so far below his market value that i don't think there is any chance he would take it.

Only if he feels he can make alot more (3 or 4 mill more per year) next year then what he is offered this year. We just will have to wait and see what the figure is.

The minimum he would probably get offered now is $12 million/yr. He would have to get $14 million/yr next season just to break even (not even taking into account the present value of money).

There is no guarantee that the teams under the cap nex season will be interested in him enough to pay him that kind of money. Plus there is always a big risk turning down a long term deal to sign a 1 year deal (see Danny Manning).

I get what your saying but we cant be sure what Smith is gonna be offered now that philly is out of the mix. Especially if what Sekou says is true about the clippers traditionally being penny pinchers. We have no idea who ALL the teams with the money next year, but Im guessing they will offer a better sitaution(not just money but also a winning organization) then what the clippers could this year. It only takes one team to fall in and love and give him 14 mill this year or next (just had an isiah flash back). I just want to see the figure offered this year. Bottom line is you lock him up long term or SNT that ass. If I were the hawks I do everything I can too prevent a 1 year deal or a long term ridiculous number for the 3rd best player on the team.

exodus · July 9, 2008

Quote:

We have no idea who ALL the teams with the money next year

Which is exactly why it would be such a huge risk to take a one year deal. If the teams with a lot of cap space don't need a 4 what is Smith going to do?

Plus next years free agent crop is supposed to be much stronger than this years.

What if he takes the one year QO and then gets hurt or has a poor season?

There is ZERO YES I MEAN ZERO chance that his agent would allow Smith to take the QO even in the unlikely event that Smith wanted to take it.

Diesel · July 9, 2008

What happens is that we trade him. We start off the season Showcasing him. Then after Dec 15, we put him on the block tethered to Speedy in search of talent. We approach teams in the West first, then we come back to teams in the east.

crimedog · July 9, 2008

Quote:

We have no idea who ALL the teams with the money next year

Which is exactly why it would be such a huge risk to take a one year deal. If the teams with a lot of cap space don't need a 4 what is Smith going to do?

Plus next years free agent crop is supposed to be much stronger than this years.

What if he takes the one year QO and then gets hurt or has a poor season?

There is ZERO YES I MEAN ZERO chance that his agent would allow Smith to take the QO even in the unlikely event that Smith wanted to take it.

Right, I think the injury thing is the biggest concern. Unless he gets a ridiculous offer from us (like last summer), he'll take it. The Clippers will probably offers something worth signing for anyway.

By the way, you (Dawsons Creek) keep calling Smith our third best player. Obviously Joe is the first best player but who is the second best in your mind?

DawsonsCreek · July 9, 2008

Quote:

We have no idea who ALL the teams with the money next year

Which is exactly why it would be such a huge risk to take a one year deal. What if the teams with a lot of cap space don't need a 4 what is Smith going to do?

Plus next years free agent crop is supposed to be much stronger than this years.

What if he takes the one year QO and then gets hurt or has a poor season?

There is ZERO YES I MEAN ZERO chance that his agent would allow Smith to take the QO even in the unlikely event that Smith wanted to take it.

What if ONE team does need a 4 and has money (we could go on and on)? You have the clippers and hawks potentially batteling for your services this year. Are you 100 percent sure that Josh Smith cant find a better situation then 2 of the worst franchises in recent nba history? If the clippers dont like to spend money and you sure as heck know the hawks dont why wouldnt u think there would be a better situation for him next year. Maybe hes tired of losing, maybe he doesnt like woodson, maybe he doesnt like the fact that the hawks waited till the last minute. Alot of what ifs for both sides of this discussion. We will just see how it plays out but like I said you cant let him walk for nothing or handicap (financially) your franchise for the 3rd best player on the team.

DawsonsCreek · July 9, 2008

Quote:

We have no idea who ALL the teams with the money next year

Which is exactly why it would be such a huge risk to take a one year deal. If the teams with a lot of cap space don't need a 4 what is Smith going to do?

Plus next years free agent crop is supposed to be much stronger than this years.

What if he takes the one year QO and then gets hurt or has a poor season?

There is ZERO YES I MEAN ZERO chance that his agent would allow Smith to take the QO even in the unlikely event that Smith wanted to take it.

Right, I think the injury thing is the biggest concern. Unless he gets a ridiculous offer from us (like last summer), he'll take it. The Clippers will probably offers something worth signing for anyway.

By the way, you (Dawsons Creek) keep calling Smith our third best player. Obviously Joe is the first best player but who is the second best in your mind?

I would take Horford over Josh Smith any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

exodus · July 9, 2008

Quote:

What if ONE team does need a 4 and has money (we could go on and on)? You have the clippers and hawks potentially batteling for your services this year. Are you 100 percent sure that Josh Smith cant find a better situation then 2 of the worst franchises in recent nba history?

Of course it isn't a sure thing that Smith couldn't get a better deal next year but that is looking at it totally bassackwards. The only way Smith would benefit from taking the QO would be to get a MUCH bigger deal next year. That is far from a sure thing.

You may not be aware of this but his agents work on commission. they aren't working out of the goodness of their hearts. they know they have a big payday coming to them this summer the only question is how big.

The commission on a 1 year deal is a mere pittance compared to what Smith can get right now. Plus if Smith does take a one year deal it is no sure thing that Smith won't fire his agents during the season.

There is NO WAY that Smith's agents would allow him to take a one year QO just because he MIGHT be able to get a better deal next season.

The Cavs had a major dispute with Varejao last year and couldn't reach an agreement. Varejao didn't take the QO though. he just sat out the first part of the season.

DawsonsCreek · July 9, 2008

Quote:

What if ONE team does need a 4 and has money (we could go on and on)? You have the clippers and hawks potentially batteling for your services this year. Are you 100 percent sure that Josh Smith cant find a better situation then 2 of the worst franchises in recent nba history?

Of course it isn't a sure thing that Smith couldn't get a better deal next year but that is looking at it totally bassackwards. The only way Smith would benefit from taking the QO would be to get a MUCH bigger deal next year. That is far from a sure thing.

You may not be aware of this but his agents work on commission. they aren't working out of the goodness of their hearts. they know they have a big payday coming to them this summer the only question is how big.

The commission on a 1 year deal is a mere pittance compared to what Smith can get right now. Plus if Smith does take a one year deal it is no sure thing that Smith won't fire his agents during the season.

There is NO WAY that Smith's agents would allow him to take a one year QO just because he MIGHT be able to get a better deal next season.

The Cavs had a major dispute with Varejao last year and couldn't reach an agreement. Varejao didn't take the QO though. he just sat out the first part of the season.

Dont insult my intelligence exodus with your agents work on commission comment. We wont agree on what deal to take (unless we maybe see a number) but I hope we can both agree that you do everything in your power not to strap the franchise or let him go without compensation. Probably wouldnt get what the hawks think is fair compensation based on the situation the hawks are in but it is what it is.

exodus · July 9, 2008

Quote:

We wont agree on what deal to take (unless we maybe see a number) but I hope we can both agree that

you do everything in your power not to strap the franchise or let him go without compensation.

I agree.

But Smith taking the one year QO is about as likely as Smith going to play in Europe. Theoretically both are possible.

crimedog · July 9, 2008

Quote:

We have no idea who ALL the teams with the money next year

Which is exactly why it would be such a huge risk to take a one year deal. If the teams with a lot of cap space don't need a 4 what is Smith going to do?

Plus next years free agent crop is supposed to be much stronger than this years.

What if he takes the one year QO and then gets hurt or has a poor season?

There is ZERO YES I MEAN ZERO chance that his agent would allow Smith to take the QO even in the unlikely event that Smith wanted to take it.

Right, I think the injury thing is the biggest concern. Unless he gets a ridiculous offer from us (like last summer), he'll take it. The Clippers will probably offers something worth signing for anyway.

By the way, you (Dawsons Creek) keep calling Smith our third best player. Obviously Joe is the first best player but who is the second best in your mind?

I would take Horford over Josh Smith any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

You might think that Al projects to be better down the road but I wouldn't base how we deal with Smith based on how good Al might be.

DawsonsCreek · July 9, 2008