How long will the Braves be awful?

[CBAreject]

These Braves have an anemic offense and a talented but raw young pitching staff. There is offensive help in the lower levels of the minors (Johnson, Shaffer, Haywood), but that's all 2 years away or more. The club will have some free agent dollars to spend, but I doubt they want to spend what it will take to acquire a star outfielder (nor should they).

I think it will be 2 more full seasons before the club can hope to contend. That's if Jurrjens continues his success AND if 2 of the 3 young pitchers (Reyes, Morton, Parr) develop to be above average AND if one more young starter develops (Hanson, for example, who by the way looks awesome). The starting pitching potential is the lone bright spot with this team, and it will take some luck for it to all work out. If we end up with 4 above average starters with that group, with 2 being star level, we could contend again.

The trouble is, despite our good young infield core (which is only good, not great), we're going to be in trouble offensively, especially with Chipper retiring soon. We'd need a new 3rd baseman, and more importantly, we'd need to replace his bat. If Francouer rebounds and 2 of those outfield prospects pan out, we'll be fine there. KJ and Escobar are adequate up the middle. Kochman could be an average first baseman. McCann is a star catcher. Where are the big bats, though? Can 2 heavy hitters emerge? Doubtful. Free agency is probably the best route to require offense, but it's probably best to wait until the rest of the club looks like it can contend.

Most of this situation is due to Scheurholz' dealings over the last 5 years. Let's recount:

1) "THREW IN" Adam Wainright and threw away Jason Marquis for 1 season of J.D. Drew

-Wainright would be a top 2 starter for us for many years

2) Traded Adam LaRoche for an injured reliever who would miss most of 2 seasons without getting a 1B back

-Note Kochman/reliever for LaRoche was on the table (the reliever to be included was the disagreement)

3) Needing to replace LaRoche, he traded a monster package with 3 of our top prospects for Teixeira, when we didn't have the pitching to contend anyway

-Harrison will be a core starter for the Rangers

-Saltalamacchia could have played first for us OR been used in a trade to require other young players (not rentals)

4) Realizing we couldn't resign Teixeira (which we already knew), he traded him for a mediocre 1B whom he could've had for LaRoche

-Effectively, we traded LaRoche, Harrison, Saltalamacchia, Andrus for 30 games of Mike Gonzalez, 1 season of Teixeira, and Kotchman

-Put another way, we could've had Kotchman for LaRoche, but we decided we'd rather delay that for a year and give up our top offensive and pitching prospect and get back a rental and an injured pitcher in exchange for our time

I posted in past years that Scheurholz hadn't made a good trade since 1995 (when he got Neagle...even though he gave up Jason Schmidt). I actually think his trade for Sheffield was good (but not great). His trade for Hampton was acceptable given the discount we got on him. Other than that, every trade was horrific. Going back to the Justice/Grissom for a season of Lofton, Jermaine Dye for Lockhart/Tucker, Neagle for Boone, Klesko/Boone for Veras/Sanders, Wainright/King/Marquis for 1 SEASON of J.D. Drew, the farm for Teixeira, failing to trade Andruw Jones for something/anything....

I just don't see why anybody still thinks this guy is a good G.M. The Braves "dynasty" was linked to Bobby Cox assembling the young core (including Glavine/Smoltz/Avery/Gant/Justice) as GM and the good job the scouting department and Leo Mazzone did in finding and salvaging pitchers.

Scheurholz to me will forever be remembered for his failure to get a good relief pitcher for the first 5 years of the run, his failure to understand that a team of slow-footed mashers who couldn't hit situationally wouldn't be able to score against good pitching in the playoffs, the Maddux/Millwood catastrophe, and trading away most of the team for 1-season rentals.

Again, that's:

Grissom/Justice, Wainright/King/Marquis, Saltalamacchia/Harrison/Andrus

for 1 season each of Drew, Tex, Lofton

[DrReality]

I wonder, and I also wonder if Schurholz saw this coming? Don't know much about the new guy but he sure isn't JS. Next season should start off a real crap shoot.

[macdaddy]

JS spent the last 5-10 years desperately trying to win another world series. One looks like in fluke in string of winning like no team has seen. But we haven't been the best team in baseball for a long time. We should have won another world series or two in the mid 90s but its hard to argue that we could have after 2000. So JS every year would try to get that one guy to win now. It wasn't about saving for the future.

To answer your question, the braves will be bad as long as Glavine and Smoltz are eating a huge part of the salary. We need that money. We have some good young pitchers. Mccann and Escobar are stars at the hardest positions to fill. We need money for big hitting outfielders. They are easy to find if you're willing to pay. We fielded a lot of minor league guys this year. Kotsay, Francouer, and whoever was probably the worst outfield in the majors.

[frosgrim]

JS spent the last 5-10 years desperately trying to win another world series. One looks like in fluke in string of winning like no team has seen. But we haven't been the best team in baseball for a long time. We should have won another world series or two in the mid 90s but its hard to argue that we could have after 2000. So JS every year would try to get that one guy to win now. It wasn't about saving for the future.

To answer your question, the braves will be bad as long as Glavine and Smoltz are eating a huge part of the salary. We need that money. We have some good young pitchers. Mccann and Escobar are stars at the hardest positions to fill. We need money for big hitting outfielders. They are easy to find if you're willing to pay. We fielded a lot of minor league guys this year. Kotsay, Francouer, and whoever was probably the worst outfield in the majors.

Glavine and Smoltz are not on the payroll next season. The Braves will have around 60 million to spend in FA. As per their agreement to buy the Braves, Liberty has to keep payroll above 90 million per season, so the idea that Liberty will just let the Braves go to a farm team ala the Royals or Pirates is out.

In terms of the team's talent. I agree the cupboard is looking a little bare. Frank Wrenn needs to invest heavily in the minors. For whatever reasons the Braves have not found those needed star-calibre pitchers. I do think the Braves minor league system is producing position players: McCann, Escobar, Francour (up until this season at least), KJ. They just haven't produced a solid starting pitcher since Milwood. I don't think Wrenn is going to be trading much of the minors this offseason, as I think he realizes he needs to revitalize the team from within.

That said, the Braves have to spend money. The only problem for the Braves is that this seasons FA class is pretty bad. There are two top pitchers Sabathia and Sheets and then the rest are 3-5 level starters. Sabathia will probably end up being the highest paid pitcher in the majors considering the Yankees, Angels, Dogers, Red Sox, and Braves will all be going after him. Sheets is going to get a big contract as well, even though he's an injury risk.

There is really nothing in way of big bats. The best homerun hitter is Dunn but the guy is an all or nothing hitter that makes Andruw and Francour look disciplined. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Dunn isn't the starting LF for the Braves in 09. In center Schaefer might make it if he has a Spring Training. He is what the Braves need at the top of the lineup since there is just no power on the team.

This just occurred to me, the Braves could try to build themselves like the early 80s Cardinals. A ton of speed up and down the lineup. With the juiced hitter era over, speed and OBPS will be a much more important part of the game.

[KDT88]

I expect us to be bad for a long time. By the time we get some decent players in here, Chipper will be done, and he's the heart and soul of the team. We'll be going against the Mets and Phillies, and they don't seem to be going anywhere in the East. All we really have on this team to build around is Mccann and MAYBE Esocbar. I'm still not sold on Jair and Campillio as #2/3 starters. It would be nice if we get CC next year, Jordan Schaefer comes up and becomes a beast, then followed by Jayson Heyward, but thats a lot that has to go right. Teams go through ups and downs, and the Braves are in the midst of their down. Its time for Wren to think long term, and long term only when making moves.

[TroyMcClure]

I'm a big believer in Leo Mazzone's philosophy of pitching. Since he's left we have no identity. It was never so much about who we had, but what we did. Leo demanded certain things from the staff in regards to working and limited their freedoms in pitch selection. That's why they were all quietly kind of happy when he left, if you'll remember. Well, look what happened with Roger McDowell. He made like 5 trips to the mound a few years ago. He's very hands off and now we have to trust the pitchers. These guys waste way too many pitches. The team has holes, but so have many Braves teams. Those teams had an agenda of fastball, change up, change speed and location, though. That always kept us in games. I have really been too busy and too burned out on the Braves to check, but does anyone know where we rank in double plays and ground ball outs? The Braves were at the top of those for about 15 years. That was a direct result of our style, which we no longer have.

[DrReality]

When was the last time we were this many games out of first place. Makes me think of the old TBS days when we would watch the lousy games instead of taking a sleeping pill.

[Dejay]

When was the last time we were this many games out of first place. Makes me think of the old TBS days when we would watch the lousy games instead of taking a sleeping pill.

Who can forget about those days, huh? That was back when you'd watch TBS, look at the Giants' lineup (Will Clark, Matt Williams, Robbie Thompson, Kevin Mitchell) and wonder how in the hell is Rick Mahler going to get outs with that 72-mph heater of his without giving up 867 runs.

In all seriousness, the Braves have a loooong ways to go to return back their glory days of the early-mid 90's. How many of you are convinced that Juir Jurrgens is destined to be a 17-20 game winner? How many of you think Jeff Francouer will quickly rebound and return to being what he was prior to this season? I'm not either. And while Liberty Media has a mandate to spend at least $90 million, much of that could be exhausted if Glavine and Smoltz are brought back; even injured, they'll have a ton of leverage, especially if they fail to sign CC, Sheets, Garland, or Lackey. And there just isn't much there in terms of available guys with power and the Braves are lacking in that department, save for Chipper and McCann. Outside of those two, there is no one in the lineup who would force opposing pitchers to lose sleep over facing.

I also agree with CBA regarding Schoerholz and his last few years as GM not being as successful as his first few years. Much of that can be contributed to ownership. Under Ted Turner, Schoerholz literally had a blank check to sign and/or trade for anyone that could help the team win (Pendleton, Nixon, Bream, McGriff, Maddux, Reardon, Neagle, Devereaux, Polonia). As Braves fans, we used to look forward to what big-name guy Schoerholz was going to bring in to strike fear in the hearts of every team who thought they were in contention for the NL pennant. But something changed after the Dye and Justice deals; it was as if he lost his mojo. More importantly, he lost Turner because AOL took over and put the brakes to his annual shopping sprees. When you go from McGriff and Galarraga manning first base to having to pull Rico Brogna and Scott Thurman off the scrap heap, it's telling; you think Adam Laroche would've cracked the Braves' 40-man roster in 1996? When you go from shopping for Denny Neagle to fill out your playoff rotation to having to settle for Albie Lopez, while trading Kevin Millwood away, well, you have what you have. Name a big-time free agent this team managed to bring in lately (and please don't say Tom Glavine).

Get used to October baseball; without the local team being involved in it.....

Edited September 10, 2008 by Dejay

[macdaddy]

When was the last time we were this many games out of first place. Makes me think of the old TBS days when we would watch the lousy games instead of taking a sleeping pill.

Glavine, Smoltz go down, Francoeur sent down, and then Skip passing away. It's been a terrible year for the braves. I think we'll be better next year but not contenders. The team needs an identity.

[Gray Mule]

The good:

Young starting pitchers, who are really AAA ready, are now on the staff. They should only improve

as we go into next season.

Up the middle: Catcher, 2nd. & SS and center field, all look pretty good as far as defense goes.

Chipper has started over the hill, but he ain't there - - not yet, any way.

The bad:

Old, past their prime and injured pichers, Smoltz and Glavine, may or may not be able to come back

and offer solid contributions. If they do, will they be worth what they will cost?

Braves have some good outfielders, but where is the power? Jeff F. has had a terrible season.

He's young enough to recover, but, will he?

Who is the power hitting 1st baseman? Or, the .300 hitting 1st baseman? That plays great defense.

What bugs me the most:

Professional players, making big $$$$ to play this game and they can't bunt. This should be a

requirement for every player, from the top star to the # 25 player on the roster - - Learn how

to bunt. These guys are great athletes. They have to be or they wouldn't be in the big league.

They excel in whatever their specialty is, yet they have never spent the necessary time and

effort to learn to bunt.

:sad:

[codyatl]

I dont think we are that far away from contending again. If you look at the deals made by wren you can see this team is heading ina different direction offensively. we will no longer be a top tier HR team. I think this is a genious move by Wren when you consider that we will no longer be at the top of the league in spending. HR hitters are costly versus speedy OBP hitters. A good strategy in this day and age.

I think we will be heavily involved in the CC sweepstakes. We will prolly lose out but i am sure we will try. There are some top tier guys out there and dont rule out a trade either. I feel good about Jurjens, campillo, Morton, Parr with Huddy coming back in second half. If we can land CC, sheets or lackey we will be fine. We are set at C, 3rd, 1st(kotchman will be better than what we have seen), ss, Rf(hes not going anywhere) and 2nd(either prado, kelly or infante). That leaves LF to fill. I would love to see Manny here as much as i dislike him as a person he is a great hitter and would be awesome between chipper and mcann. I can see us going after Burrell though.

All in all we still have a bright future cause we have some real talent coming. Heyward, Hernadez, and shaeffer will be showing up very soon. Not sure about our farm system's picthers though. I saw that Cox has said he iwll be back next year. I know this is prolly blasphemy but I was hoping this was his last yr. I think maybe we need to see a change in the dugout. Think about this. With the speed and contact guys we have this yr and seeing as how we never hit hr how many times have you seen us hit and run? Not many. How many times have you seen the lineup change to get hot hitters up in the order? How long did it take to put blanco in the leadoff spot? Bobby has done great things here but I think it is time for a change.

[frosgrim]

I don't have any idea what Cox is thinking. I think he just enjoys himself too much to retire. I am not sure changing managers is always what its cracked up to be. Look at what happened to the Dogers after letting Lasorda go. How about the Yankees minus Torre? Now not all of that is the managers doing/fault, but it does give you some pause.

In terms of getting Manny, I have to say no thanks. I am a big BoSox fan and after the last few years, the last thing a young team needs is a cancer like Manny. The guy quit in the Red Sox, then started picking fights in the clubhouse. All that over wanting a contract extension. Pathetic.

I still have no idea what the Braves are going to do for a starting pitching staff. They have to fill 2-3 spots. Parr might be a good one. I am not sold at all on Morton.

[DrReality]

Heard a report they are going after two starting pitchers in the offsearson.

And I agree re Manny: no thanks.

[TroyMcClure]

I think maybe we need to see a change in the dugout.

Yeah, but you're wrong about the guy that needs to go. Look, we've won with all different kinds of offenses, but we've only won with one pitching coach and one pitching philosophy. I'm with you that we are not far off, but we could be if we don't focus on the philosophy of pitching more. When you keep it low and don't have an ego as a pitcher, it's better for the team. To use a football analogy - keeping it low, changing speeds and location and focusing on fastballs and change ups are like running the football. They give you the best chance to stay in the game and gives your opponent less opportunities to beat you. I've got issues with Bobby too, but to say he needs to go, while not addressing McDowell's role in our descent, is absurd to me. Especially considering we all know how we were so good for so long.

Also, why is it that Jimmy Williams is on another bench? So is Pat. Leo does a radio show. Why the Braves have not aggressively pursued Leo and Jimmy when available is beyond me. Same with letting Pat go. Just dumb, "different direction" kind of upper management garbage.

Bobby is great, but they were a gifted staff. All of those talented coaches are gone now. They can say whatever they want about the new guys, but the record speaks for itself.

Edited September 18, 2008 by TroyMcClure

[AHF]

Heard a report they are going after two starting pitchers in the offsearson.

I am on board with that.

[frosgrim]

Heard a report they are going after two starting pitchers in the offsearson.

And I agree re Manny: no thanks.

On the drive in this morning Wrenn was on 680. Very good interview. Wrenn is candid and tells it like he sees it. You could tell he wasn't just doing the evasive GM talk; instead, he was giving answers as much as he can. He couldn't name the guys he was going to go after in the offseason due to tampering, but he did clearly state that he thinks the Braves need 4 new starting players. 2 top-shelf, starting pitchers, and 2 outfielders.

He also mentioned that he would trade Francouer if the right deal came along.

He expects to have two of the 4 guys signed over the winter, but other players may have to wait until Spring training and probably a trade in the middle of the season.

He mentioned that somethings are beyond his control. Here he specifically mentioned Ben Sheets coming down with a forearm injury. I think that Wrenn just tipped his hat there. In the context of the discussion he didn't need to mention Sheets by name, but he did, which leads me to think Sheets is a guy that the Braves will try to sign (if healthy) over the winter.

Wrenn also sounded extremely confident that he would have another pitcher added over the winter. This makes me think there is already a trade in the works, but maybe he is confident the Braves can outbid everyone for a guy like Lackey. Not sure on this one.