Re-thinking Horford's value: Undeveloped offensive game hurts future

[exodus]

It is pretty sad that horford isnt even looking to score when he catches the ball 15-18 feet from the basket and Big Z is 5 feet off him.

[coachx]

He is not the next Karl Malone or even the next Carlos Boozer, but when is Big Al going to take his offensive game to another level? Will Big Al turn from starter (averaging 32-37 minutes) to valuable benchwarmer or energy player (averaging (20-23 minutes) per game.

Horford may never average more then 14 ppg. If that is the case, that still does not make him a bad player. He will average double digit rebounds for the next 8-10 years while being a team leader. Most people compared him to a Anotnio Davis type of player. A guy tough enough to play C or PF and be equally effective. In his prime years he will give you 14 ppg and 11 to 12 rpg. I would take that and be very pleased. The 11.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg he gave us this year, at 22 years of age, should not be a dissapointment at all. Al will get the mid range shot down with a little time. The guy is only 22.

I do not ever see Horford being a 20-23 minute role player.

You seem to love to jump on the 2 guys (Marvin & Al) who happen to be hurt right now.

http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/590...awks_practice/#

Edited May 6, 2009 by coachx

[exodus]

Horford may never average more then 14 ppg. If that is the case, that still does not make him a bad player. He will average double digit rebounds for the next 8-10 years while being a team leader. Most people compared him to a Anotnio Davis type of player. A guy tough enough to play C or PF and be equally effective. In his prime years he will give you 14 ppg and 11 to 12 rpg. I would take that and be very pleased. The 11.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg he gave us this year, at 22 years of age, should not be a dissapointment at all. Al will get the mid range shot down with a little time. The guy is only 22.

I do not ever see Horford being a 20-23 minute role player.

You seem to love to jump on the 2 guys (Marvin & Al) who happen to be hurt right now.

http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/590...awks_practice/#

Horford doesn't average 10 rebounds on a bad rebounding team so i see no reason to believe he will get up to 11-12 rebounds per game. He's no Buck Williams.

[HawksBalla]

Al's jumpshot isnt good enough (or maybe I should say, consistent enough) for him to be a go-to scorer. And because we play him at center with Josh Smith on the court, he almost always will be stuck trying to post up a player that is stronger and taller than he is. He will always have a tough time in this league as a low-post offensive player at center. His only chance to score anything over 12 ppg is to develop a fade-away jumper, a la Boozer.

I am open to trading him, though I am trying to remember he is hurt and how helpful he has been in the past. He is a good rebounder and his shot-blocking has improved. He can run the court, he is a leader. These are all good qualities.

Really though, right now I am open to trading everyone not named Joe, Josh, and Zaza (because he fits the roles of backup center and enforcer perfectly). Josh Smith is hopefully starting to see how good he can be on the low-post. That makes Horford expendable. The problem is I can't think of too many centers that we'd want in his place. Think Portland would do a Oden for Horford? Would we?

[HAWKS1986]

Al's jumpshot isnt good enough (or maybe I should say, consistent enough) for him to be a go-to scorer. And because we play him at center with Josh Smith on the court, he almost always will be stuck trying to post up a player that is stronger and taller than he is. He will always have a tough time in this league as a low-post offensive player at center. His only chance to score anything over 12 ppg is to develop a fade-away jumper, a la Boozer.

I am open to trading him, though I am trying to remember he is hurt and how helpful he has been in the past. He is a good rebounder and his shot-blocking has improved. He can run the court, he is a leader. These are all good qualities.

Really though, right now I am open to trading everyone not named Joe, Josh, and Zaza (because he fits the roles of backup center and enforcer perfectly). Josh Smith is hopefully starting to see how good he can be on the low-post. That makes Horford expendable. The problem is I can't think of too many centers that we'd want in his place. Think Portland would do a Oden for Horford? Would we?

Big Al is a tweener with an inconsistent offensive game, and if he doesn't improve, his days as a starter are numbered. I wish Big Al had half the offensive skillset of a Michael Beasley or Boozer, but right now it looks like he has a long way to go towards developing a consistent offensive skillset.

Fratello on Hawks forward Al Horford: “I’m not sure if it is the bad ankle with (Al) Horford but somewhere in that Miami series you saw him lose his offensive confidence, he’s just not the same offensive player as he was during the regular season.”

[Joker]

Horford may never average more then 14 ppg. If that is the case, that still does not make him a bad player. He will average double digit rebounds for the next 8-10 years while being a team leader. Most people compared him to a Anotnio Davis type of player. A guy tough enough to play C or PF and be equally effective. In his prime years he will give you 14 ppg and 11 to 12 rpg. I would take that and be very pleased. The 11.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg he gave us this year, at 22 years of age, should not be a dissapointment at all. Al will get the mid range shot down with a little time. The guy is only 22.

I do not ever see Horford being a 20-23 minute role player.

You seem to love to jump on the 2 guys (Marvin & Al) who happen to be hurt right now.

http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/590...awks_practice/#

He can and will... ppl must remember we have four to five other options who are better scorers on this team.

JJ

Bibby

Marvin

Smith

Flip

If he was the 2nd or 3rd option then that could change.

He is talented, he is getting a lot better on offense. He could average 16-19 ppg elsewhere.

Edited May 7, 2009 by nbasuperstar40

[BossTweed]

Horford doesn't average 10 rebounds on a bad rebounding team so i see no reason to believe he will get up to 11-12 rebounds per game. He's no Buck Williams.

What about if he was playing PF and rebounding against other PFs instead of playing Center and rebounding against guys with 2 to 3 inches on him?

[DrReality]

I would really hate to see us trade him, which I think is highly unlikely, until he has a big that can play with him inside.

[coachx]

Horford doesn't average 10 rebounds on a bad rebounding team so i see no reason to believe he will get up to 11-12 rebounds per game. He's no Buck Williams.

Our pace was 24th in the league Exodus.

I know you love the pace factor on stats b/c you bring it up all the time. If the Hawks were in the middle of the pack on pace, instead of at the bottom, it may give Al the 0.7 of a rebound to get him to 10 a game.

Buck played in era where the pace was much quicker then it is today.

Al is only 22. Does Al Horford not have the baility to grab 1 or 2 more rebounds per game in his best years of 24 - 29 ? If the team plays at an average pace that would help as well.

[exodus]

What about if he was playing PF and rebounding against other PFs instead of playing Center and rebounding against guys with 2 to 3 inches on him?

Playing center didn't hurt Boshs rebounding and playng the 4 didn't help Amare's. Playing the 4 obviously isn't helping Smith's rebounding. Okafors rebounding hasn't been much affected by his position.

People keep using Horford's position as an excuse but the bottom line is that he has spent time at the 4 with no noticable increase in production. Horford should easily be able to score against bigger, slower players but he doesn't because he isn't a scorer.

[coachx]

What about if he was playing PF and rebounding against other PFs instead of playing Center and rebounding against guys with 2 to 3 inches on him?

I am not concerned with his height.

Jayson Williams let the league in rebounding as a 6'9'' center for the Nets in the modern era.

Buck Williams played some center at 6'8'' and had plenty of 12 rpg years in the 80's.

Of course both players played on teams with a much faster pace then Hawks played at this year. So they had more rebounding oppurtunities.

[exodus]

Our pace was 24th in the league Exodus.

I know you love the pace factor on stats b/c you bring it up all the time. If the Hawks were in the middle of the pack on pace, instead of at the bottom, it may give Al the 0.7 of a rebound to get him to 10 a game.

Buck played in era where the pace was much quicker then it is today.

Al is only 22. Does Al Horford not have the baility to grab 1 or 2 more rebounds per game in his best years of 24 - 29 ? If the team plays at an average pace that would help as well.

The Hawks were 25th in the league in rebounding ratio which takes pace into account. The Hawks are a poor rebounding team period. Put him on an average rebounding team that plays at a faster pace and i don't see how that helps him.

[coachx]

Playing center didn't hurt Boshs rebounding and playng the 4 didn't help Amare's. Playing the 4 obviously isn't helping Smith's rebounding. Okafors rebounding hasn't been much affected by his position.

People keep using Horford's position as an excuse but the bottom line is that he has spent time at the 4 with no noticable increase in production. Horford should easily be able to score against bigger, slower players but he doesn't because he isn't a scorer.

Well said. I agree with that as far as his scoring goes. Every year in the league his mid range jumper will improve but I am postive he will never be a #1 scoring option and probably never a #2 scoring options.

I do think he can be Antonio Davis though and give us 14 ppg and 10 to 12 rpg in the very near future. Like next season.

[mrhonline]

Why aren't people using rebound percentage? It's a far greater stat than rebounds alone.

Al Horford was 8th in defensive rebounding percentage in the NBA this year. He's a terrific defensive rebounder.

[coachx]

Why aren't people using rebound percentage? It's a far greater stat than rebounds alone.

Al Horford was 8th in defensive rebounding percentage in the NBA this year. He's a terrific defensive rebounder.

Is that defined as the percentage of defensive rebounding oppurtunities a player gets ?

If so then that is very impressive for a 2nd year player who is 22.

[mrhonline]

Yes. From B-R.com:

DRB%

Defensive Rebound Percentage (available since the 1970-71 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * (DRB * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm DRB + Opp ORB)). Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01.html

[TheDude]

Al Needs:

1) to muscle up a bit like boozer did

2) get that midrange shot down

3) get plays called for him for example pick n rolls, etc...aka offensive scheme..

[exodus]

Why aren't people using rebound percentage? It's a far greater stat than rebounds alone.

Al Horford was 8th in defensive rebounding percentage in the NBA this year. He's a terrific defensive rebounder.

I have no idea what defensive rebounding percentage is. I doubt anyone else does either which is why nobody is using it.

Horford ranked 20th in defensive rebounding ratio.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/s...mp;seasonType=3

Considering how bad the rest of the team is at defensive rebounding his numbers are nothing special at all. If he was playing next to Howard or Camby his numbers would probably look a bit different.

[coachx]

I have no idea what defensive rebounding percentage is. I doubt anyone else does either which is why nobody is using it.

Horford ranked 20th in defensive rebounding ratio.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/s...mp;seasonType=3

Considering how bad the rest of the team is at defensive rebounding his numbers are nothing special at all. If he was playing next to Howard or Camby his numbers would probably look a bit different.

Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Of course if Horford played with one of the top 2 rebounders in the NBA there would be less rebounds to grab.

What is defensive rebounding ratio ?

Edited May 7, 2009 by coachx

[exodus]

Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Of course if Horford played with one of the top 2 rebounders in the NBA there would be less rebounds to grab.

What is defensive rebounding ratio ?

Its Hollinger's method of measuring rebounding.

RebR Rebound Rate is the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds. Rebound Rate = (100 x (Rebounds x Team Minutes)) divided by [Player Minutes x (Team Rebounds + Opponent Rebounds)]