Labor Day is my reminder

[DrReality]

HAWKSVILLE - For those of us pro basketball loyalists, we always know when it’s time to readjust the schedule to get ready for the NBA season.

Labor Day is my reminder.

I know that in the days immediately following the holiday players will start trickling back into town and showing up for voluntary workouts (go ahead and get your jokes about my Wolverines out of the way now so we can move on to basketball matters) on the track and at the Hawks’ practice facility.

It’s as much as a part of my late summer/fall routine as watching football on the weekend. So I’ll be making my way downtown all week to see who shows up and what kind of work they’re doing in anticipation of the start of training camp, which believe it or not is just roughly three weeks away.

The prognosticators already have an idea of what things will look like once the season starts and how the Hawks will do, for example, our friends at HoopsHype have the Hawks pegged for a return to the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference standings.

I prefer to wait until I actually see someone on the move before offering up any sort of hypothesis about where this team might be headed. So while I was standing over my grill Sunday afternoon, basking in the glory of a decisive win for my team Saturday and enjoying the neighborly ambiance of the world’s greatest bedroom community (neighbors bring over steaming hot crawfish pies and ice cold Arnold Palmers when they see the first sign of grill smoke in Smyrna), the conversation turned to the Hawks.

Specifically, the Ridge Road crew wanted to know who has to have the biggest year for the Hawks to continue their climb up the conference ladder and back into the playoffs and perhaps beyond the second round?

It’s a question, I explained, best answered by those of us that spend far too much time worrying ourselves with these things on a daily basis (if you’re reading this, you know who you are). So before I ask for your take, please allow me to offer my five-point answer:

MIKE WOODSON - the Hawks’ sixth-year head coach has weathered every storm that’s come his way thus far, which is a testament to not only his team’s continual improvement but also his ability to compartmentalize during tough times and rally his troops. But this season will provide perhaps the harshest spotlight he’s faced during his tenure. In each of his five previous seasons few people - fans, pundits or anyone else outside of the city of Atlanta - viewed his team as a playoff player. All that has changed in the past 16 months. Woodson’s entering the final year of his deal, which always adds a little extra drama to the situation, with oversized expectations. The roster is 11-deep with proven NBA players (Randolph Morris is still waiting on the chance to prove himself), the deepest the Hawks have been since Woodson arrived. The bottom line, this team goes where Woodson leads them.

JOE JOHNSON - In the same situation as his coach, in terms of heading into the final year of his deal (until further notice, of course), the Hawks’ captain and All-Star faces an interesting dilemma this season. As his younger teammates have matured and the veteran cast been upgraded, Johnson will have to decide how much of the burden he is willing and able to shoulder this season. Physically, the extended minutes have taken a toll the past two seasons, when his playoff performances weren’t consistently up to his own lofty standards. Crazy as this might sound; if his numbers decreased across the board (especially his minutes) I could see him having a better season than any of his first four with the Hawks.

JAMAL CRAWFORD - Anytime you fleece a team the way the Hawks did when they snatched Crawford from the Golden State Warriors for Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton, folks expect big things. And Crawford has to deliver, whatever his role ends up being. If he “leads the league in scoring off the bench” as one Hawks’ staffer joked to me in the hours after the deal went down, we’d have some story. But if he just maintains his nearly 20-point scoring average this season he’ll make that deal worth it. Any concerns about Crawford’s fit on this team have been assuaged by multiple in-house sources this summer that insist Crawford developed an instant chemistry with everyone within the organization that’s dealt with him. If the on-court chemistry comes as easily, this could wind up being one of the Hawks’ best personnel moves in years. If not …

RICK SUND - You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone that isn’t convinced that the Hawks’ GM has done a masterful job in his first 13 months on the job. He’s made all the right moves and steadied the organization through one of their best seasons in years. But the toughest challenge comes this season. Sund will have to gauge the Hawks’ progress by the February trade deadline and decide if this team, as presently constituted, provides the best chance for long-term success or not. If not, he’ll have to pull the trigger on the right deal to push the Hawks over top (sort of like his predecessor did two years ago when Billy Knight pulled the trigger on the Mike Bibby deal). Gone are the days when the Hawks’ GM could simply suspend the franchise in rebuilding mode or just maintain. The next step is moving upward and onward, and that almost always requires a deft personnel move one way or another.

JEFF TEAGUE/JOE SMITH/JASON COLLINS - These three guys represent everything the Hawks have needed in the form of depth at their two most crucial positions the past five years. Just a rookie, Teague’s ability to adapt to the NBA game and assume a position backing up Bibby is crucial. If his assimilation comes off without a hitch, and we honestly have no way of knowing how it will go, the need for that third point guard won’t be nearly as urgent as it might be otherwise. Smith and Collins are known commodities in the NBA. You get a versatile scorer and defender in Smith, a veteran frontcourt performer that’s always played much bigger than his listed size. In Collins, the Hawks have a 7-footer capable of lending quality minutes in a situational role, particularly on the defensive end. They have to be the support system, along with Zaza Pachulia, that Josh Smith and Al Horford have had to work without the past two years.

You know what I think.

[gsuteke]

RICK SUND - You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone that isn’t convinced that the Hawks’ GM has done a masterful job in his first 13 months on the job. He’s made all the right moves and steadied the organization through one of their best seasons in years. But the toughest challenge comes this season. Sund will have to gauge the Hawks’ progress by the February trade deadline and decide if this team, as presently constituted, provides the best chance for long-term success or not. If not, he’ll have to pull the trigger on the right deal to push the Hawks over top (sort of like his predecessor did two years ago when Billy Knight pulled the trigger on the Mike Bibby deal). Gone are the days when the Hawks’ GM could simply suspend the franchise in rebuilding mode or just maintain. The next step is moving upward and onward, and that almost always requires a deft personnel move one way or another.

I disagree with Sekou here. I belive the Hawks will peak in 2 to 3 years. Trading players away or shaking the team up at this point makes little sense to me. Championships are won in "Windows." I believe the Hawks chance to compete for a title lies 2 to 3 years from now when KG, Kobe, and Duncan are on the decline. LBJ is the only wildcard in my eyes when it comes to Atlanta being a favorite in the near future.

[sturt]

...I disagree with Sekou here. I belive the Hawks will peak in 2 to 3 years. Trading players away or shaking the team up at this point makes little sense to me. Championships are won in "Windows." I believe the Hawks chance to compete for a title lies 2 to 3 years from now when KG, Kobe, and Duncan are on the decline. LBJ is the only wildcard in my eyes when it comes to Atlanta being a favorite in the near future.

I agree with gsuteke here... well, kind of... with the caveat that they must outperform last season and keep advancing...

I continue to believe that it won't be the February trade deadline that Sund will be watching, but rather, if we are underperforming, it will be the availability of whoever is at the top of his "If I have to replace Woody" List... if he views Team X, or moreover, Teams X and Y as threats to pick up his #1, he could make a move sooner than he otherwise would.

NBA history has its share of Doug Collinses replaced by Phil Jacksonses... guys who led their team for a few important developmental years, but ultimately, the summit belonged to someone else.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I disagree with Sekou here. I belive the Hawks will peak in 2 to 3 years. Trading players away or shaking the team up at this point makes little sense to me. Championships are won in "Windows." I believe the Hawks chance to compete for a title lies 2 to 3 years from now when KG, Kobe, and Duncan are on the decline. LBJ is the only wildcard in my eyes when it comes to Atlanta being a favorite in the near future.

Championships are won in "windows", you are correct. But a team has to be in a window first, to have that "window of opportunity". But to see the effect of a major trade, all you have to do is look at what some of the other teams that have won titles, have done in recent years.

- Lakers acquired Pau Gasol in a trade for basically nothing, to put them over the top. Without that deal, the Lakers don't get to Finals level. Odom, their young center Bynum, and guys like Luke Walton and Jordan Farmar wouldn't have helped Kobe enoiugh to get them over the top.

- a fledgling Boston literally trades away their entire young crew ( future star Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Delonte West, Sebastian Telfair, draft pick Jeff Green, and others ), to obtain KG and Ray Allen. They go from a young team with "potential" to NBA Champs overnight.

- Miami basically acquires Shaq in exchange for Lamar Odom, a year after Odom and D-Wade got Miami into the playoffs and won a few games. The trade immeadiately pays off for Miami, bringing them a title in year 2.

All 3 of those teams could've waited for their young talent to develop, much like the Bulls did with Hinrich, Deng, and Gordon, when they made their playoff run a few years back.

Unfortunately for the Bulls, injuries and the stagnant development of Hinrich and Deng, put them back a notch. Rose may save them though. But now they're without Gordon, arguably their best player. And they lose him for basically nothing.

The fact is that this season is pretty critical for the future makeup of the team and our overall direction. Sund has to decide first if JJ is the guy we should build around or not. If not, he has to find the guy to replace him . . . probably via a trade for another star who couldn't get it done somewhere else.

If JJ is the guy, and none of our kids take a real quantum leap in their development, we may have to move one of them to upgrade the squad.

Most everyone may be cool with moving Marvin, but the other teams are going to want Josh Smith or Horford. The question then becomes, will Sund have the balls to move one of those guys, if it means bringing in a top notch PF or C ( much like what Boston did with Al Jefferson, to get KG ).

I'm not against staying with the status quo, if these guys continue to improve. Just understand that the only team in recent years that have won with their core guys developing into stars, without doing a major trade or free agent signing to bring in a star talent . . . is San Antonio.

I do agree that the Hawks ( as is right now ) are at least 2 years from being an NBA Finals contender. But for that to happen, JJ needs to become at least a 2nd team All-NBA player, and one of the kids need to reach an All-Star caliber level.

Without that, we're simply the Utah Jazz . . a perennial playoff team with virtually no shot to win a title. That's not what many want to hear, but that's not necessarily a horrible thing either.

Edited September 8, 2009 by northcyde

[tbhawksfan]

4@$60M is a good deal. Good for the Hawks, good for JJ.

What do you guys think about 5@$75M ? If he has any idea of moving, that offer would probably convince him. We're the only team that can offer him a fifth year, if I understand correctly.

The Hawks appear to be entering the "open window period". It's only cracked at this point, but it should go through it's opening, then reclosing cycle during the next 5-6 years. The peak time for this group is probably still a year to three or four years away.

There are three other players that could over-come JJ as the Hawks best player; Smoove, Horford and MW. Teague has a chance, but not worth talking about yet. A Hawks team in the next two to five years with JJ as the second, third or fourth best player is a very nice thought.

Woodson needs to adapt his coaching to better exploit the teams full potential or he needs to get gone, this year. No more two year contracts. It's time for the coach that can take the Hawks to the top to emerge. It's not Woodson.

[DrReality]

It is exciting to think that we are moving into that window with our young guys and it's been a long road. Now the issue becomes adding a piece here or there and as we have seen attracting FA will be a log easier.

[Guest Walter]

I agree with gsuteke here... well, kind of... with the caveat that they must outperform last season and keep advancing...

I continue to believe that it won't be the February trade deadline that Sund will be watching, but rather, if we are underperforming, it will be the availability of whoever is at the top of his "If I have to replace Woody" List... if he views Team X, or moreover, Teams X and Y as threats to pick up his #1, he could make a move sooner than he otherwise would.

NBA history has its share of Doug Collinses replaced by Phil Jacksonses... guys who led their team for a few important developmental years, but ultimately, the summit belonged to someone else.

I agree with this here. It may be difficult to assess this team's player make-up with Woodson still as the coach. IF things go bad, I presume Sund's first act is a HC in waiting.

Mind you, if there is one of those Gasol-for-next-to-nothing deals out there this year and the team is going well, you gotta try and pull the trigger.

W

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I agree with this here. It may be difficult to assess this team's player make-up with Woodson still as the coach. IF things go bad, I presume Sund's first act is a HC in waiting.

Mind you, if there is one of those Gasol-for-next-to-nothing deals out there this year and the team is going well, you gotta try and pull the trigger.

W

What if it's Josh Smith + a filler for Amare Stoudamire in a sign and trade next summer. Do you pull the trigger then?

This is assuming that Amare is back 100% and is putting up his usual 21 pts - 9 rebs - 50%+ FG - 75%+ FT

[coachx]

What if it's Josh Smith + a filler for Amare Stoudamire in a sign and trade next summer. Do you pull the trigger then?

This is assuming that Amare is back 100% and is putting up his usual 21 pts - 9 rebs - 50%+ FG - 75%+ FT

Depends on how Smoove playes next year and who that filler is. For example, is the "filler" ZaZa or Morris ?

If Josh only gives us 17 ppg, 7rpg, 1.5 bpg, and is the worst jump shooter in the league for the 2nd straight season then YES. You make that deal in a second.

However, if Josh gives you 17 ppg, 9 rpg, can get his blocks back over 2 per game, and cuts down on the amount of missed jump shots then we keep him. It would also be nice if he could get his FT% back over 70%.

[kamillion]

nice summary from Smith........