What Are the X Factors Going Into the Season?

[TheTruth]

Highlight Factory - There are much higher expectations regarding our high-flying Hawks this year. After posting a 47-35 record last year, capturing the 4th seed in the East with a second straight trip into the playoffs, it seems as though this team is primed to make another postseason appearance. With the additions of a 50 point-potential Crawford who will see his role as 6th man and primary combo guard expand to that of former Hawk Flip Murray reserve extraordinaire, an intriguing fleet-footed rookie Point Guard in Jeff Teague, solid vet big man in Joe Smith, and sturdy Jason Collins, the team now has a relatively deep bench and added size that should lessen the tight grip Woodson has on a usually tight rotation.

So far, this team looks like a postseason shoe-in. Mike Bibby, a stabilizing cog that makes the Hawks go, is still primarily a catch-and-shoot Point Guard that can't keep up with opposing PGs. However, that is somewhat offset by his ability to run Mike Woodson's "offense" with calming perfection. Joe Johnson, the team's #1 option and soon free agent-to-be, carries a lot more on his plate than the average SG in this league. He has to be a defensive presence, guard opposing teams' point guards, be a playmaker, a captain, and be the leading scorer on the team--all while playing 39.5 minutes every game. Yes, we all would like Joe to show up more often in the playoffs, and we all would like to see more intensity out of our man Joe, but he is who he is; he is the Hawks' best player and the success of our team firmly rests on his shoulders. One thing that hasnt been pointed out enough though--Joe has remained virtually healthy every season with us. That certainly bodes well for the Hawks. What words come to mind when you think of Marvin? Efficient. Young. Consistent. Duck Booty. Not Aggressive Enough. Will he have a breakout year? Who knows. He debuted his new-found range in his 3 point shot that was pretty dang decent last year (35.5%). He doesn't get many opportunities to score, but when he does, he is pretty efficient. Look for him to have another solid, but not spectacular, year. Josh Smith: Mr. Highlight Reel himself. He is super young (23) and has a ton of talent. Evaluators consistently say he could be one of the best rebounders and shot blockers in the league. What is holding him back? Basketball IQ. Josh, after boldly proclaiming before preseason that he would stop shooting threes, attempted ZERO during the preseason so far. A sign of good things to come? I think so. If Smith ever pulls it together, and there is still time, he WILL be one of the best players in this league. Until then, he is nothing more than an exciting skilled player who has barely tapped into his true potential. And finally, Al Horford. How can you not like this kid? After giving us 11.5 points/9.3 rebounds last year, some claim we should be expecting more out of our undersized Center. He won't block a ton of shots (1.4/game), but he is a steady force in the middle. I would like to see Horford take more players off the dribble by getting past the slower big men he faces most nights. I would also like to see him command the rock inside more and grab 10+ rebounds every night. I fear though, that as long as he is our Center and Josh Smith is our Power Forward, it will be hard for us to establish a presence in the lane. Yes, Josh Smith tapping his unreal potential would help matters, but I don't think they would solve them. We may need a real starting Center here to keep teams from waltzing in the lane against us.

Orlando, with some offseason improvements, looks to avenge their loss to the Lakers in the Finals last year. Boston is Boston, but they aren't exactly getting any younger. And Cleveland is looking to improve upon its showing from last year with the acquisition of the Big Shaqness. The soon-to-be healthy Wizards, Bulls, and Heat all could be challenging the Hawks this year. Which Hawk will step up? Who will rise to the occasion and help put this team over the top and usher them past the second round of the playoffs? Who will say 47 wins isnt good enough...and then show it by their play on the court? Will Woodson develop a good offensive scheme to capitalize on his players' strengths? Will he manage minutes properly? Will Joe have a bounce-back year after seeing his PPG (21.7) and FG % (43.7) drop from his spectacular 06-07 showing? Will Joe leave us after the season?

With so many questions and X factors, only time will tell. But with an improved bench and more maturity from its young core, anything short of being competitive in the second round should be disappointing for this Hawks team.

Edited for spelling.

Edited October 25, 2009 by TheTruth

[Atlantaholic]

Obviously the main thing you want to see is improvement from last year. I have my serious reservations about a Mike Woodson coached team, and really my opinion is that he often holds our team back especially, but not exclusively, on the offensive side of things.

There are a few simple things I will be looking for coaching wise... Some kind of offensive identity (that isn't one on one Joe/Crawford), no substituting people out of games BEFORE foul trouble, defensive adjustments when an initial strategy doesn't work out (Maybe you should stop switching with Bibby don't ya think Woodster?), and an overall improved focus on back to backs, road games against weak opponents, games following dramatic wins etc. (yeah, last night was a big FAIL... but hopefully that improves as the season progresses).

I think we have a talented roster, but it will be a bit challenging juggling all those minutes and finding the right combination of players against any given opponent. To me this season will be a big test for Woodson and also for Joe. It is his contract year. As a go to guy he has been inconsistent and if he wants the max he better play like the player that averaged 25 ppg a few years back and not the player he becomes when his yearly procession of nagging injuries show up. Those are the two most important things for me really. I don't think J-smoove will ever be Garnett version 2.0 and I don't think Marvin will ever be more than he has shown the last couple of years. Crawford is a plus, but honestly, with the minutes he will get it is unrealistic to expect him to have a much greater impact on our team than Flip did last year. The season will depend on Joe and Woody, and how much they can grow this year. If the season falls apart they are the two that will likely (and deservedly) get the blame, and we can move on from both of them and rebuilt with a terrific young and talented core. I think, overall, the franchise is in a good spot. It is definitely an important year for our future, but I think regardless of how it ends up we have the infrastructure set up to give us a bunch of options about how to move forward.

[Buzzard]

Obviously the main thing you want to see is improvement from last year. I have my serious reservations about a Mike Woodson coached team, and really my opinion is that he often holds our team back especially, but not exclusively, on the offensive side of things.

There are a few simple things I will be looking for coaching wise... Some kind of offensive identity (that isn't one on one Joe/Crawford), no substituting people out of games BEFORE foul trouble, defensive adjustments when an initial strategy doesn't work out (Maybe you should stop switching with Bibby don't ya think Woodster?), and an overall improved focus on back to backs, road games against weak opponents, games following dramatic wins etc. (yeah, last night was a big FAIL... but hopefully that improves as the season progresses).

I think we have a talented roster, but it will be a bit challenging juggling all those minutes and finding the right combination of players against any given opponent. To me this season will be a big test for Woodson and also for Joe. It is his contract year. As a go to guy he has been inconsistent and if he wants the max he better play like the player that averaged 25 ppg a few years back and not the player he becomes when his yearly procession of nagging injuries show up. Those are the two most important things for me really. I don't think J-smoove will ever be Garnett version 2.0 and I don't think Marvin will ever be more than he has shown the last couple of years. Crawford is a plus, but honestly, with the minutes he will get it is unrealistic to expect him to have a much greater impact on our team than Flip did last year. The season will depend on Joe and Woody, and how much they can grow this year. If the season falls apart they are the two that will likely (and deservedly) get the blame, and we can move on from both of them and rebuilt with a terrific young and talented core. I think, overall, the franchise is in a good spot. It is definitely an important year for our future, but I think regardless of how it ends up we have the infrastructure set up to give us a bunch of options about how to move forward.

I agree with you. A lot is on Woody and JJ but also think our frontline needs to improve as well. If we do not improve over last year how we move forward is dependent on possibly losing JJ.... is Marvin, Smoove, and Horf our front line of the future? .... and is Teague the real deal?

I like our core as you stated and if all we need to replace is JJ and Woody then we are good to go; but not with Crawford please. If on the other hand we need to replace someone on our front line and/or a pg for the near future, Sunds job will be that much tougher.

IMO our frontline has to improve. We just cannot keep expecting to win games when our bigs are being outscored and out rebounded on a nightly basis. We need to win one of those battles as a group and keep the other one respectable. So yes JJ neeeds to lead us but our young frontline has to keep improving also.