The Disclaimer Thread

[Wretch]

So....

With the start of the season upon us, it's time to start rolling out predictions. But with all the buzz around the league (seemingly except for us) and the negativity floating around (that I admittedly have engaged in), I thought I'd start a topic and give folks one last chance to clarify their position - and maybe backtrack a little if you don't want to eat too much crow.

So my final thoughts before the season starts:

I'm still not at all happy about hiring LD. And I'm willing to eat crow on it. I think with a 50 win team, after you fire the coach...you've got to go for a clear upgrade. I have my doubts that Larry Drew should be considered an upgrade. How good is he at adjustments? How good is he at motivating? I don't know if he has the full confidence of the guys or if he gets it, if he'll be able to keep it. I also have no idea if he's any good at coaching.

He does have the right idea, but at the same time, just about everyone from Bob Rathbun to Chuck could see our major flaws (on both ends). So, it's no surprise to me that LD has come out with the intent to change that. Regardless, I don't think we'll be going back to iso-Joe. Although, I do feel like we're going to be pretty average coming out of the gates, by the end of November, I think we'll really be rolling. I think we'll have better games and more quality wins than we did last year, but the overall total is going to fall short. If this really works, I think JJ will have a tremendous season. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this will be Marvin's year as well as Horford (lol).

OT: Miami is going to be very good. But they will not win the championship - this year or next (gasp!) and they might not make the ECF.

Anyone else wanna put a disclaimer out here...in case you get an extra-large serving of crow come the end of the season?

[pimp]

Im gonna wait until i see a couple of preseason games before i make my predictions..

i need to see 3 things

1. are the players able to run the new offense effectively

2. the non- switching defense in action

3. what Teauge, Powell, Jordan, and Thomas can bring to the team

[spotatl]

I think the offense is going to take a big step back actually. I think the Hawks offense is going to be mediocre and the turnovers are going to go way up this season.

I think there is a better chance the team misses the playoffs than they make it past the second round.

Edited October 5, 2010 by spotatl

[coachx]

I think the offense is going to take a big step back actually. I think the Hawks offense is going to be mediocre and the turnovers are going to go way up this season.

I agree TO will go up. Last year the Hawks lead the league in fewest turnovers per game by a wide margin due to their slow pace and iso basketball.

It Drew gives Teague the rope to grow and make some mistakes our TO will go up. Add to it we will be running a new motion offense with lots of passing and the turnovers will definately go up.

Does that mean the offense will be worse ? Not if it works in crunch time where iso JJ failed us too often.

Now on defense:

The only way for Drew's defensive philosophy is going to work with this team is if Teague is playing more then Bibby. Any time Bibby is on defense we are forced to switch and hide him as much as possible.

I expect 50 wins and a playoff seed around 5 to 3.

[niremetal]

I agree TO will go up. Last year the Hawks lead the league in fewest turnovers per game by a wide margin due to their slow pace and iso basketball.

It Drew gives Teague the rope to grow and make some mistakes our TO will go up. Add to it we will be running a new motion offense with lots of passing and the turnovers will definately go up.

Does that mean the offense will be worse ? Not if it works in crunch time where iso JJ failed us too often.

Now on defense:

The only way for Drew's defensive philosophy is going to work with this team is if Teague is playing more then Bibby. Any time Bibby is on defense we are forced to switch and hide him as much as possible.

I expect 50 wins and a playoff seed around 5 to 3.

Mostly agreed.

Re: the offense - I think the offensive efficiency will go down during the regular season as compared to last year, and I don't care. What I care about is how that offense looks in the playoffs. The ISOs were a recipe for disaster when you have to play good teams 4+ consecutive games. I think the motion offense will serve us better in the playoffs, and our offensive efficiency in the playoffs will be up compared to last season (barring injury, of course). That's what I care about.

I've stopped caring about whether we win 44, 50, or 55 games in the regular season. I've seen that movie as a Hawks fan about 15 times during the past 25 years. What I care about is our chances of getting past the second round in the playoffs. Getting rid of Woody and implementing a motion offense increased the odds of that.

[macdaddy]

We know we have a quality team. Its not easy to win that much two seasons in a row. Remember when we won 13 games?

We don't know if they can go from playoff team to elite team. Despite how you feel about Woody you have to admit that it wasn't just fans that were puzzled by the way he ran the Hawks. It was most everyone including people like Hubie Brown. So unless LD can't keep control of these guys i don't see any way we won't be a more competitive team beginning to end of games and of the season.

[Chickenstanley]

My concern, at this point, is that our team does not have an identity or any one facet of the game that they are extremely good at. Last year, the only aspect we truly excelled at was the lack (turnovers). But we all know why....

The recent Detroit championship team could lock-down defensively. Against anyone --as was proven against the Shaq/Kobe/Phil Lakers. San Antonio could lock-down. As could the recent Boston teams. As can Orlando. Like MJ once said, "offense puts fans in the seats, but defense wins championships".

I suppose it is only in retrospect that teams are analyzed as to "how they did it" -----once they've "done it".

I'm looking for SOMETHING or some area of the game that this team can impose it's will on any/and every team in the league. And then build around or use this as a spring board to put the rest of it together. Right now (pre-season), I don't see this in the Hawks. Our entire team, in my opinion, mimicks my (well-chronicled) opinion of Al Horford. Just plain-ole above average, but not one single aspect that is truly great. And I just don't buy that this is good enough to seriously contend.

My opinion is that Boston and Orlando are clearly the favorites to finish 1-3 in the east. Miami has the "potential" to finish somewhere in this group also. But they'll have to show me on the court before I'll attach any credibility to them. And if James or Wade miss serious time with injuries --- they may be lucky to finish in the bottom half, for that matter.

The Hawks should easily finish 3-5 barring serious injury problems. But it's the playoffs that matter ---- not the regular season. The Hawks ROAD RECORD will determine whether they are contenders or not. It was totally silly for anyone to consider the Hawks serious contenders last year (or recent years) with the pathetic road record that they carried into the playoffs. The road record is the "tell", in my opinion.

Anything under 25 road wins and the Hawks are highly unlikely to get out of (or even seriously contend in) the second round, in my opinion. You may enjoy yourself at Phillips ----- but to me, games played at Phillips hold very little value at this point in this teams' evolution.

CS