Stagnant Hawks in need of financial creativity

[Wurider05]

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“Fans may not understand and media certainly wouldn’t understand because they like the hype of all the moves in the summer. But when you look at our club, we’ve got a pretty damn good club and a good nucleus given that we [operate] under the luxury tax.”

– Rick Sund, Oct. 20, 2010

Sund, the Hawks’ general manager since 2008, has often expressed his belief that keeping the team intact, as opposed to acquiring players through trade or free agency, will be the source of its improvement. Sitting at 20-13 after 33 games — one game off the pace of last year’s 53-win season and two games off the pace of a 47-win season two years ago — it’s a fair question the capabilities of Atlanta’s core.

One obvious obstacle to improvement through constancy is that the team’s top three guards are not young and cannot reasonably be expected to improve at this stage of their careers. Solid offensively and poor defensively (both individually and collectively), Mike Bibby (32 years old), Jamal Crawford (30), and Joe Johnson (29) have declined offensively this season to the point that their play on that end no longer overcomes their defensive limitations.

Last season, with Crawford enjoying a career year and Johnson posting his typical moderately high-volume scoring and slightly below-average efficiency numbers, the Hawks could survive the defensive hit caused by playing the three veteran guards together. The Hawks gave up 5.6 more points per 100 possessions, but scored 8.8 more points per 100 possessions with the trio on the court.

With Crawford having a less spectacular offensive season and Johnson scoring at a more modest volume with very low efficiency, the Hawks have struggled with the veteran guard trio on the court this season. The Hawks are again giving up five more points per 100 possessions but they’re scoring only an extra 3.9 points per 100 possessions when Bibby, Crawford and Johnson play together. The Hawks are essentially a .500 team (110.4 points scored, 109.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) when Bibby, Crawford and Johnson are all on the court even though, on 59 percent of the possessions they play together, Atlanta’s two best players, Al Horford and Josh Smith, share the court with them.

The volume of possessions that Johnson and Crawford use (they again lead the team in usage rate) also hinders the development of their younger teammates. Horford has increased his usage and improved his offensive efficiency in each of his four NBA seasons. And while he has blossomed into arguably one of the top 15 or 20 players in the league, he remains fourth on the team in usage rate and third in minutes played per game. Marvin Williams is an efficient scorer as a fourth- or fifth-option but has yet to be tested in a larger role to see if the Hawks could get greater offensive return for the five-year, $37.5 million investment they made two summers ago. Jeff Teague has shown marked improvement from his rookie season but appears to have gained little trust from rookie coach Larry Drew, earning four DNP-CDs and averaging just 13.5 minutes per game when he does get in.

Josh Smith turned 25 only three weeks ago, but it’s worth considering the possibility he has plateaued (albeit at a high level) as a player. He has been more effective playing on the perimeter this season, but he has not been measurably better. He’s made 37.9 percent of his three-point attempts and more than 40 percent of his long two-point jumpers (both career bests) yet his effective field-goal percentage has declined because these successful jump shots have been taken instead of rather than in addition to shot attempts at the rim, where Smith typically makes more than 60 percent. Last season, less than a quarter of his field-goal attempts were taken outside of 15 feet and more than half were taken at the rim. This season, more than 41 percent of his attempts have been taken beyond 15 feet and less than a third have been taken at the rim.

Furthermore, despite being on pace to challenge his career-best free throw percentage, Smith has seen his free-throw rate decline by more than 16 percent from last season as he spends more time on the perimeter. His improvement as a jump shooter has made him a slightly less effective offensive player in the short term.

Because the Hawks have spent so freely in retaining their nucleus (even with Horford on his rookie contract this season, the Hawks are spending $56.6 million on their top six players) and have been reluctant to use their draft picks (2010 first-round pick Jordan Crawford has played just 109 minutes, 2010 second-round pick Pape Sy has yet to be active for a single contest, and the team sold the 31st pick in the 2010 draft to the Thunder for cash), the Hawks signed four fringe NBA players (Jason Collins, Josh Powell, Etan Thomas, and Damien Wilkins) to league-minimum contracts in order to fill out the rotation while staying under the luxury tax.

Given that Philips Arenas has been, on average, at 75 percent capacity this season and that the franchise has not won a second-round playoff game since 1997, deciding to stay below the luxury-tax threshold is perfectly reasonable.

The lack of creativity in spending their limited resources is less so. Does any team (at least as 2011 dawns) need Mo Evans and Damien Wilkins? Both Jason Collins and Etan Thomas? Simply limiting themselves to one aging role player per position would create some financial flexibility while freeing up a couple of roster spots for younger players capable of augmenting the core in the present and possibly providing greater value in the future.

Unless the organization is willing to accept diminishing returns from its long-standing belief in sticking with more of the same, cutting back on aging role players may be a necessary change.

Very interesting article. Very true

[niremetal]

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Very interesting article. Very true

Except that JJ is not a defensive liability and never has been. And Bibby is not declining offensively this year; last I checked, he was #3 in the NBA in eFG% and #9 in A/TO ratio.

I've always been in the "LaGree is an idiot" camp. Like most keyboard pundits floating around the internet, he forms his opinions on players very early and rarely changes them thereafter. He makes some good points in this one, but I always ask myself "does he actually watch any games?" at least once every time I read something by him.

[Joker]

Except that JJ is not a defensive liability and never has been. And Bibby is not declining offensively this year; last I checked, he was #3 in the NBA in eFG% and #9 in A/TO ratio.

I've always been in the "LaGree is an idiot" camp. Like most keyboard pundits floating around the internet, he forms his opinions on players very early and rarely changes them thereafter. He makes some good points in this one, but I always ask myself "does he actually watch any games?" at least once every time I read something by him.

He's biased as some of these posters. It's clear he watches and probably is a fan of the Hawks but his opinion is really no different than a basketball savvy poster on here. Only Atlanta staff and management know where the team will go next as far as moves and what not.

Edited December 31, 2010 by nbasuperstar40

[frosgrim]

We can nit pick the details and assertions about Bibby and JJ's effectiveness, but none of us can deny that:

1) this team seems to be stagnant both in the front office and on the court

2) The Atlanta fan-base has tuned this team out. The Thrashers are starting to outdraw the Hawks.

3) Relying on multiple over the hill vets isn't helping the team.

[Vol4ever]

We can nit pick the details and assertions about Bibby and JJ's effectiveness, but none of us can deny that:

1) this team seems to be stagnant both in the front office and on the court

2) The Atlanta fan-base has tuned this team out. The Thrashers are starting to outdraw the Hawks.

3) Relying on multiple over the hill vets isn't helping the team.

Hammer hits nail!

[Dejay]

We can nit pick the details and assertions about Bibby and JJ's effectiveness, but none of us can deny that:

1) this team seems to be stagnant both in the front office and on the court

2) The Atlanta fan-base has tuned this team out. The Thrashers are starting to outdraw the Hawks.

3) Relying on multiple over the hill vets isn't helping the team.

Amen to that. Keeping the status quo is good if you did something in the playoffs the year before. But at this point, the jig is up. Folks want results and being 21-13 isn't going to move the meter one bit with the fanbase here, who are sick with this bunch go out like a pack of clowns every spring. No one wants to hear about how bad it was when Dion Glover was starting. What have they done for me lately???

[Crank]

Crawford and Joe have been injured just more overwritten nonsense from Bret legarbage .

They havent been healthy but someone who supposedly follows the team right this stuff ? Both Crawford and Joes shot attempts are down from last year and this is the first week this year where weve had our full team healthy .

[frosgrim]

Crawford and Joe have been injured just more overwritten nonsense from Bret legarbage .

They havent been healthy but someone who supposedly follows the team right this stuff ? Both Crawford and Joes shot attempts are down from last year and this is the first week this year where weve had our full team healthy .

But do you really think this team is going anywhere other than a loss in the 2nd round?

[ATownWhatup]

this article sucks....but he has a point

This team is stuck in-between......we're built to win now but realistically we're not winning now anytime soon over Boston/Orlando/Miami......we're an above average nba team, but not great.....it's like we've been stuck on netural for the last 3 years

a few years ago, just being a guaranteed playoff team was great.......but now its gotten old

[Guest Walter]

Crawford and Joe have been injured just more overwritten nonsense from Bret legarbage .

They havent been healthy but someone who supposedly follows the team right this stuff ? Both Crawford and Joes shot attempts are down from last year and this is the first week this year where weve had our full team healthy .

They couldn't have been more healthy than last year and what did that get them? I'm not certain what to expect differently when healthy. I think Drew IS better than Woody at this point, but not clearly so and not moreso than the Eastern Conference is better. So, if this team gets healthy, it can expect more of the same. Maybe even less success. Not encouraging.

W

[Crank]

But do you really think this team is going anywhere other than a loss in the 2nd round?

no but to try and claim its because the guards are old is ridiculous .

The facts remains is that we dont have players as good as those other teams .

We dont have an all nba caliber player the league know it, the players know it, and we get treated accordingly. The sad part for all the efficiency opponents are still far more worried about Joe or Jamal getting hot and ripping them a new one than Al or josh beating them .

If they were as good as everyone keeps trying to claim they are we would be a top two seed regardless of who our guards are because in the elite bigmen can make a star out of guards .

I like them all even Bibby well except maybe Marvin he just rubs me the wrong way but we have the best collection of #2 and #3 players ever assembled but we need to find a #1