Interesting article stasticians will love

[coachx]

http://sportsillustr...60256/index.htm

This coach goes for it on 4th down every single time. No matter how extreme the circumstance. (Even if its 4th and goal at the 23.)

He never returns a punt b/c he says the risk of a penalty or fumble over weighs the benefit of a return.

He alwasye does on side kicks........never a conventional kickoff.

His teams production speaks for itself.

Edited September 30, 2011 by coachx

[AHF]

I did love reading that article. It was fascinating. Watching the video of his team playing one of the best teams in the state and going up 28-0 before the other team touched the ball was impressive (TD, onside kick TD, onside kick TD, onside kick TD).

[CBAreject]

There was an article in a major newspaper a few years back where a statistician argued that an NFL team should almost never punt. I believe there were exceptions for 4th and very long and protecting a lead very late, but in general, it maximized scoring for the possessing team and minimized scoring for the opposing team if they went for it on 4th down, even in their own territory. He supported the argument in a practical sense by saying that possessions are so valuable in pro football that turning it over via punt was a losing play in most cases.

I think about this issue quite a bit in football. I wouldn't be so extreme to say never punt, but think about this to conceptualize (in math, you're taught to use sometimes use competing extreme cases to elaborate general concepts):

1) Team A is facing Team B and Team B has a terrible offense, averaging 10 points per game and less than 200 yards of offense. Team A and Team B have good defenses. In this case, Team A should always punt on 4th down, since Team B will almost never score on a long drive. Field position matters much more than possessions in this game. Giving Team B the ball in scoring range is a huge error. In fact, depending on how good Team B's defense is, it may be correct to punt on 3rd and long, since the likelihood of a turnover increases substantially on 3rd and long plays, and a turnover against Team B who can't move the ball to save its life is an absolute disaster.

2) Team A is facing Team B and Team B has an excellent offense, averaging 45 points per game and 550 yards of offense. Team A also has a very good offense. Team A and B have below-average defenses. In this case, Team A will tend to allow Team B to score much more frequently than they will stop Team B. As such, possession matters much more than field position. Team A should almost never punt to Team B, going for it even on 4th and 15, since their good offense stands to make a few of these against Team B's below-average defense. In fact, it may be correct for Team A to never settle for a field goal since Team B will usually score a touchdown on the following drive.

Those are the extreme cases, but most situations will fall somewhere in between. It is likely that NFL teams should go for it on 4th down more frequently than they do. When the league was more defense-minded, it made more sense to always punt, but now that it's a higher scoring league, you should probably go for it a few times per game, even in your own territory at times.

[frosgrim]

2) Team A is facing Team B and Team B has an excellent offense, averaging 45 points per game and 550 yards of offense. Team A also has a very good offense. Team A and B have below-average defenses. In this case, Team A will tend to allow Team B to score much more frequently than they will stop Team B. As such, possession matters much more than field position. Team A should almost never punt to Team B, going for it even on 4th and 15, since their good offense stands to make a few of these against Team B's below-average defense. In fact, it may be correct for Team A to never settle for a field goal since Team B will usually score a touchdown on the following drive.

Those are the extreme cases, but most situations will fall somewhere in between. It is likely that NFL teams should go for it on 4th down more frequently than they do. When the league was more defense-minded, it made more sense to always punt, but now that it's a higher scoring league, you should probably go for it a few times per game, even in your own territory at times.

This pretty much sums up what the Falcons SHOULD be doing until they get their defense fixed.

[CBAreject]

@frosgrim, that's about right

@hawksfanatic, whenever I post, there you are, chasing along, nipping at my heels...."yap, yap...yap, yap, yap". it would be kinda cute if it weren't such an overtly pathlogical obsession