nastalgic moment that is bitter sweet

[Wretch]

I also might add...that you're gambling with RFA's, because you save your cap space looking for a particular free agent season and you don't know if a team will match or if you'll be waiting another year (the trend seems to be the best players extending and not playing out that last year of the contract).

[Buzzard]

I also might add...that you're gambling with RFA's, because you save your cap space looking for a particular free agent season and you don't know if a team will match or if you'll be waiting another year (the trend seems to be the best players extending and not playing out that last year of the contract).

That is the gamble in FA. Completely opposite game, but still a gamble. In FA you know what you are paying for since they have been in the league 3 or 4 years at least, but do they want you and/or will their team match? In the draft you really don't have a serious clue as to the players long term starting ability for 75% or more of the players available, but they don't have a choice.

I hate the draft when it comes to sure things, but free agency is no picnic either.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Buzzard

[Wretch]

I think sometimes you can "know" what you're getting in FAcy and sometimes you don't and let's contrast that with the draft, because you can say the same thing...

In the draft, you see Kevin Durant, Shaq, Allen Iverson, Larry Bird...it's pretty much a no-brainer you pick these guys and you know what to expect from them.

In free agency, you see LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul...it's pretty much a no-brainer that you throw a max contract at them and you sign them.

What's the difference?

Any of us would have jumped on the opportunity to draft Kevin Durant or Shaq. Which would you rather have? And I'm speaking in terms of your mindset at the time...take yourself back here...to when LeBron James was the #1 pick in the draft. Imagine if you want, a basketball fairy (lol) granting you the chance to draft LeBron, Shaq, or Iverson...or you have the chance to trade/FA sign Barkley, Chris Paul, or Durant. It's debatable what you do here, but honestly...you can't go wrong. If I had a magic basketball fairy and had the choice, I'd tell them to send me back to 2003 and give me the #1 pick. Even without the knowledge that I have now, because you could see what LeBron James was going to be...and he came straight out of high school.

"Yeah well...that's IF LeBron is in that draft and IF you can land the top pick to get him!"

Well, by the same token, are we guaranteed to sign CP3 or Howard? You could make similar comparisons to the uncertain part of the lottery to the 2nd tier of free agents. You don't know that those picks are going to be Paul Pierce or Dirk Nowitski, but you also don't know that Alan Houston or Joe Johnson are going to be "just ok" players either.

Take a debatable choice like Al Jefferson. Are we even guaranteed a shot at him? And will he be worth the money we overpay to acquire him? Here's that guy... He's a monster in the paint. He scores at a clip that rivals superstars. He's a true center.... This is the perfect example of what I'm talking about.

Do we sign this guy? He's proven. He's a big. He's a veteran. He's a 20/10 guy in the NBA. Half the board says YES, he's plan B! The others say, NO, he's Joe Johnson part II.

Which is it?

We don't know the answer to any of that right now. It's a gamble and that's what I'm saying. There are uncertainties, BIG uncertainties, regardless of what path we take - otherwise, there would be no hilarity in revisiting previous drafts and there would never be a bad contract. There would only ever be perfect teams that get it right every single time.

One thing IS for certain. When you have an average team, you will finish around 40-50 wins and your ceiling is a couple of games in the 2nd round. Your pick will end up mid to late teens, and it will more than likely not be a game changer. We've seen that pattern for like...20+ years.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Wretch

[Buzzard]

I think sometimes you can "know" what you're getting in FAcy and sometimes you don't and let's contrast that with the draft, because you can say the same thing...

In the draft, you see Kevin Durant, Shaq, Allen Iverson, Larry Bird...it's pretty much a no-brainer you pick these guys and you know what to expect from them.

In free agency, you see LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul...it's pretty much a no-brainer that you throw a max contract at them and you sign them.

What's the difference?

Any of us would have jumped on the opportunity to draft Kevin Durant or Shaq. Which would you rather have? And I'm speaking in terms of your mindset at the time...take yourself back here...to when LeBron James was the #1 pick in the draft. Imagine if you want, a basketball fairy (lol) granting you the chance to draft LeBron, Shaq, or Iverson...or you have the chance to trade/FA sign Barkley, Chris Paul, or Durant. It's debatable what you do here, but honestly...you can't go wrong. If I had a magic basketball fairy and had the choice, I'd tell them to send me back to 2003 and give me the #1 pick. Even without the knowledge that I have now, because you could see what LeBron James was going to be...and he came straight out of high school.

"Yeah well...that's IF LeBron is in that draft and IF you can land the top pick to get him!"

Well, by the same token, are we guaranteed to sign CP3 or Howard? You could make similar comparisons to the uncertain part of the lottery to the 2nd tier of free agents. You don't know that those picks are going to be Paul Pierce or Dirk Nowitski, but you also don't know that Alan Houston or Joe Johnson are going to be "just ok" players either.

Take a debatable choice like Al Jefferson. Are we even guaranteed a shot at him? And will he be worth the money we overpay to acquire him? Here's that guy... He's a monster in the paint. He scores at a clip that rivals superstars. He's a true center.... This is the perfect example of what I'm talking about.

Do we sign this guy? He's proven. He's a big. He's a veteran. He's a 20/10 guy in the NBA. Half the board says YES, he's plan B! The others say, NO, he's Joe Johnson part II.

Which is it?

We don't know the answer to any of that right now. It's a gamble and that's what I'm saying. There are uncertainties, BIG uncertainties, regardless of what path we take - otherwise, there would be no hilarity in revisiting previous drafts and there would never be a bad contract. There would only ever be perfect teams that get it right every single time.

One thing IS for certain. When you have an average team, you will finish around 40-50 wins and your ceiling is a couple of games in the 2nd round. Your pick will end up mid to late teens, and it will more than likely not be a game changer. We've seen that pattern for like...20+ years.

Here is your difference, In FA, we know for a fact Evans, Jefferson, Millsap, CP3, D12, and Pekovic can produce at a high level. Now go into this years draft and find me just six players that you would bet your teams future on that they will do at least the same.

[Wretch]

Here is your difference, In FA, we know for a fact Evans, Jefferson, Millsap, CP3, D12, and Pekovic can produce at a high level. Now go into this years draft and find me just six players that you would bet your teams future on that they will do at least the same.

You're giving a one year sample comparison - this year's FA's vs. this year's draft crop - which really isn't a fair argument. I'm talking about franchise building over the course of SEVERAL years. I'm assuming that you believe one method of rebuilding is better and more efficient than the other. I'm saying that regardless of what you do, there are huge uncertainties. So, we're really not on the same page here.

I don't think it's fair to say year by year, one method of talent acquisition is better. Some years you have bad drafts (2001) some years you have legendary drafts (2003). The same holds true for free agency...there's not always a CP3 or Dwight Howard available. So while this year's free agent crop may be clearly better than this year's draft, that's not always going to be the case. And since it's the PLAYER'S choice as to where they sign in free agency vs. the team's choice of what player to draft - there is a trade off. And that trade off is the fact that you are not guaranteed to sign ANY of these free agents. You can't really say otherwise.

...and yes, you can say we know these guys can produce at a high level in the NBA. Let's not dodge that. But now...here's a question for you: which one are we guaranteed to sign and what impact will they have for us? While you're at it, make a prediction about this year's draft crop and then let's revisit the conversation in 5 years.

[Admin]

Here is your difference, In FA, we know for a fact Evans, Jefferson, Millsap, CP3, D12, and Pekovic can produce at a high level. Now go into this years draft and find me just six players that you would bet your teams future on that they will do at least the same.

Actually Evans doesn't produce at a high level. If I remember correctly AHF posted something a month or so ago that showed that Evans was the least efficient SG in the league. He's a chucker and a low efficiency one at that. But he's a good enough defender, young enough to get better, and versatile enough to play 1-3 on the floor, so I'd say that he's worth a look for the right price.

[Dejay]

Regardless of which way of rebuilding one prefers, they need to bring in some guys who can PLAY and sooner rather than later. Memphis and Indy are both a game away from reaching the conference finals; the Warriors two. I haven't seen this bunch get that far in my lifetime and I've been watching them since 1977. The last time they were taken as a serious contender was when I was in high school in the late-'80s. That was over a quarter century ago. Even the Thrashers have a more recent banner and they're in Manitoba; sadly gone but never forgotten (and never forgiven, Gary Bettman).At this point, I DO NOT CARE how they get the players needed to advance beyond the Iron Mike Sharpe stages of the playoffs. Just get them...

Edited May 16, 2013 by Dejay

[AHF]

Here is your difference, In FA, we know for a fact Evans, Jefferson, Millsap, CP3, D12, and Pekovic can produce at a high level. Now go into this years draft and find me just six players that you would bet your teams future on that they will do at least the same.

Actually Evans doesn't produce at a high level. If I remember correctly AHF posted something a month or so ago that showed that Evans was the least efficient SG in the league. He's a chucker and a low efficiency one at that. But he's a good enough defender, young enough to get better, and versatile enough to play 1-3 on the floor, so I'd say that he's worth a look for the right price.

Knowing that someone has produced at a high level is only useful to the extent it correlates to future high level production. When I think of past performance being some kind of guaranteed production from Evans, Pekovic, etc. doesn't anyone think of Larry Hughes, Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, Vin Baker, Andris Biedrens, Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bogut, etc.? There is still plenty of risk with those free agents.

You don't get guaranteed production from the non-superstar free agents or some guarantee that their value with match up with their contract. You are still gambling on players like Biedrens and Pekovic or Arenas and Evans but it is a more informed gamble than the draft. I would describe this type of free agent hunting as lower upside than the lottery with lower downside on performance risk (i.e., less likely that the player will completely bust) and higher downside on performance to contract price risk (greater risk that you end up with an Amare type who isn't remotely worth his price but still gives you some performance whereas a lottery pick who busts plays for 1/3 or less of the price).

Dolfan - I don't think I ever said Evans was the least efficient SG in the league. This season he was actually pretty good on efficiency. He was the #12 guard scoring more than 14 ppg in terms of TS% this season (in the same ballpark with Jamal Crawford, OJ Mayo and Lou Williams).

http://bkref.com/tiny/MsrxE

The prior 2 seasons were more of a struggle:

2011-12 #27 of 33 (between Brandon Jennings and Nick Young)

http://bkref.com/tiny/A7flW

2010-11 #36 of 36 (last in the league for guards scoring more than 14 ppg)

http://bkref.com/tiny/ZBol7

Edited May 16, 2013 by AHF

[Admin]

Knowing that someone has produced at a high level is only useful to the extent it correlates to future high level production. When I think of past performance being some kind of guaranteed production from Evans, Pekovic, etc. doesn't anyone think of Larry Hughes, Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, Vin Baker, Andris Biedrens, Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bogut, etc.? There is still plenty of risk with those free agents.

You don't get guaranteed production from the non-superstar free agents or some guarantee that their value with match up with their contract. You are still gambling on players like Biedrens and Pekovic or Arenas and Evans but it is a more informed gamble than the draft. I would describe this type of free agent hunting as lower upside than the lottery with lower downside on performance risk (i.e., less likely that the player will completely bust) and higher downside on performance to contract price risk (greater risk that you end up with an Amare type who isn't remotely worth his price but still gives you some performance whereas a lottery pick who busts plays for 1/3 or less of the price).

Dolfan - I don't think I ever said Evans was the least efficient SG in the league. This season he was actually pretty good on efficiency. He was the #12 guard scoring more than 14 ppg in terms of TS% this season (in the same ballpark with Jamal Crawford, OJ Mayo and Lou Williams).

http://bkref.com/tiny/MsrxE

The prior 2 seasons were more of a struggle:

2011-12 #27 of 33 (between Brandon Jennings and Nick Young)

http://bkref.com/tiny/A7flW

2010-11 #36 of 36 (last in the league for guards scoring more than 14 ppg)

http://bkref.com/tiny/ZBol7

Maybe it was more than a month or so ago and you were referring to his prior seasons or it could be that my memory has failed me, but it does appear that until this year he was pretty poor in efficiency. That's scary that coming into a new contract he all of a sudden becomes a much more efficient player. Is it him turning the corner as a young player and finally getting it, or was he simply trying to take better shots since he new he was in line for a new contract?

[Wretch]

When I think of the guaranteed great production from Evans, Pekovic, etc. doesn't anyone think of Larry Hughes, Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, Vin Baker, Andris Biedrens, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, etc.? You don't get guaranteed production from the non-superstar free agents or some guarantee that their value with match up with their contract. You are still gambling on players like Biedrens and Pekovic but it is a more informed gamble than the draft. I would describe this type of free agent hunting as lower upside than the lottery with lower downside on performance risk (i.e., less likely that the player will completely bust) and higher downside on performance to contract price risk (greater risk that you end up with an Amare type who isn't remotely worth his price but still gives you some performance).

Yes. Yes. Yes and YES. PERFECTLY put, AHF.

It happens ALL the time and there's no other way to put it other than...it's a gamble. An informed gamble is exactly what we're talking about when you're not chasing LeBron James, Dwight Howard, or Michael Jordan in FAcy. Would any of the teams in the past like to go back and erase those contract mistakes like Arenas or Koncak or Alan Houston? Without a shadow of a doubt! These were mistakes - in the case of Joe Johnson and Gilbert Arenas, you're talking 20+ million per YEAR mistakes (and an ungodly amount more when you're talking LUXURY TAX)!

You take a bad player in the draft, hell you can dump him. Sometimes you can tack him and his $3 or $4 million onto the end of a trade or you might even be able to pawn him off onto someone because he has "potential." But now...what are you going to do with a 33 year old Joe Johnson, scoring 15-16ppg, when you're paying him 23 million...for 2 more seasons!? The flipside of a "known" commodity is also that people KNOW when it's a mistake and it's not easy to get rid of.

You have high upside and potential with players taken in the draft. You also have a high degree of uncertainty regarding their production. I think people just focus on the latter part of that. You have less upside and potential with known commodities, but also have less uncertainty about their production. People ignore the former - for fear of cellar dweller seasons and "luck of the draw" in the draft. There are risks and rewards associated with either, though and I will say the financial risk (as well as the potential to hamper flexibility) is FAR greater with your 2nd tier of free agents than it is with the draft.

I do want to reemphasize here that I am NOT advocating that the draft is a better solution to rebuilding than FAcy or vice versa. Honestly, you come out best with a smart mix/balance of both (we do have a #3 pick in Al Horford and a ton of capspace, afterall).

I'm saying that:

1) It is not a given (probably not even likely, given our history) that we will be able to build a contender solely through free agency and trades.

2) The draft is a crapshoot/gamble by it's very nature, but generally speaking...it is no more a gamble than throwing big money at "known" 2nd and 3rd tier free agents.

3) It is very likely that if we fill this team up with "pretty good" players, that we will continue to see our season ending after no more than 6-7 wins into the playoffs. We've actually been witness to this for decades now.

[AHF]

Maybe it was more than a month or so ago and you were referring to his prior seasons or it could be that my memory has failed me, but it does appear that until this year he was pretty poor in efficiency. That's scary that coming into a new contract he all of a sudden becomes a much more efficient player. Is it him turning the corner as a young player and finally getting it, or was he simply trying to take better shots since he new he was in line for a new contract?

His track record is not good for scoring efficiency so I would put him in the category of players who are high risk to be low efficiency chuckers. This year was a good one for him, but he still cannot spread the floor, still needs the ball in his hands, and has never been part of even a respectable team. I consider him a high performance risk in addition to the financial side of the equation for fear that he reverts to his 2010-11 or 2011-12 shooting form. I was just saying he isn't the absolute bottom of the barrel for scoring efficiency.

[Admin]

His track record is not good for scoring efficiency so I would put him in the category of players who are high risk to be low efficiency chuckers. This year was a good one for him, but he still cannot spread the floor, still needs the ball in his hands, and has never been part of even a respectable team. I consider him a high performance risk in addition to the financial side of the equation for fear that he reverts to his 2010-11 or 2011-12 shooting form. I was just saying he isn't the absolute bottom of the barrel for scoring efficiency.

I appreciate the correction on him not being the bottom of the barrel. At least he makes up for his traditionally low efficiency with being a good defender who can play the 1-3 spots and he's a guy who can go and get you points, which we desperately needed against the Pacers.

[ATLSmith]

Oh man, the draft. Got to love it. I tend to be very optimistic about whoever we draft, just because I can't stand to think that we wasted a pick on a bum.So let's see...I thought Marvin could grow into something special if he could just make that 3 point shot consistently.I wasn't sure about Sheldon Williams. At the time we had a lot of forwards on the team; Smoove, Childress, Marvin, and there we go drafting another forward.While Horford is also a forward, I liked the pick. He just seemed like a winner and had a great college career. We were also a year along and it looked like Childress, Marvin, and Sheldon weren't where we expected them to be.I thought Acie was a good pick in the 2nd round and we needed a PG sooo badly.I barely knew who Jeff Teague was. I like him now but was unsure when he was picked.I liked the Pape Sy pick. It seemed like he could be a good 6th man. Something like Lou Williams, but taller, and able to play SF. I guess he still has a shot if they invite him back to training camp this year.Who is Damian James?Who is Keith Benson?I like John Jenkins. I think he's going to be in this league for a long time.Too early to say with Mike Scott, although he seems like a solid scorer and defender.

[HawkItus]

Oh man, the draft. Got to love it. I tend to be very optimistic about whoever we draft, just because I can't stand to think that we wasted a pick on a bum.

So let's see...

I thought Marvin could grow into something special if he could just make that 3 point shot consistently.

I wasn't sure about Sheldon Williams. At the time we had a lot of forwards on the team; Smoove, Childress, Marvin, and there we go drafting another forward.

While Horford is also a forward, I liked the pick. He just seemed like a winner and had a great college career. We were also a year along and it looked like Childress, Marvin, and Sheldon weren't where we expected them to be.

I thought Acie was a good pick in the 2nd round 1st round(yeah read it and weep) and we needed a PG sooo badly.

I barely knew who Jeff Teague was. I like him now but was unsure when he was picked.

I liked the Pape Sy pick. It seemed like he could be a good 6th man. Something like Lou Williams, but taller, and able to play SF. I guess he still has a shot if they invite him back to training camp this year.

Who is Damian James?

Who is Keith Benson?

I like John Jenkins. I think he's going to be in this league for a long time.

Too early to say with Mike Scott, although he seems like a solid scorer and defender.

Fixed it for you.

[AHF]

So let's see...

I thought Marvin could grow into something special if he could just make that 3 point shot consistently.
I wasn't sure about Sheldon Williams. At the time we had a lot of forwards on the team; Smoove, Childress, Marvin, and there we go drafting another forward.
While Horford is also a forward, I liked the pick. He just seemed like a winner and had a great college career. We were also a year along and it looked like Childress, Marvin, and Sheldon weren't where we expected them to be.
I thought Acie was a good pick in the 2nd round 1st round lottery (yeah read it and weep) and we needed a PG sooo badly.
I barely knew who Jeff Teague was. I like him now but was unsure when he was picked.
I liked the Pape Sy pick. It seemed like he could be a good 6th man. Something like Lou Williams, but taller, and able to play SF. I guess he still has a shot if they invite him back to training camp this year.
Who is Damian James?
Who is Keith Benson?
I like John Jenkins. I think he's going to be in this league for a long time.
Too early to say with Mike Scott, although he seems like a solid scorer and defender.

Fixed again.