Breaking News: Adreian Payne traded to T-Wolves for 2017 1st (lottery proteected 2017-2020)

[Guest]

Doesn't matter what you call it, there's almost no chance we gain the same value back. Hell we aren't even getting any interest in this milk money we have a tiny chance of getting back.

I'm going to laugh when all of you praising the Hawks for this move look silly when Payne becomes a good player in the next year and in 2021 we finally get a 2nd round pick for him.

Players have contracts and you're missing that point here. I can totally get your point that Payne might turn out to be awesome and we are taking a risk that our future draft pick might not be that good. It's a bit of a "grass isn't always greener" type of argument, but I think you're missing the value of rookies here.

Is Dennis valuable to this team? Sure, but you also know that he is under contract for less that $2m. He is at that value because rookies cannot negotiate contracts. If Dennis could negotiate, what do you think he would cost this team next year? Some value greater than $2m. And THAT is where the rookie value comes in because rookie contracts only last so long before they expire and you have to pay up. Payne isn't producing and won't produce with our current frontcourt plus future frontcourt with Mike and Edy. So why waste that asset? Why keep milk in your fridge when you have no need for it? I'd much rather have that cash or coupon for later than the milk (I won't use) today.

[Sothron]

Timberwolves are realistically not this upcoming season but the season after that in a possible playoff path. They need next year to grow and develop their young guys plus the 2015 first round pick whoever that is. So we're looking at 2016-2017 team for them to be knocking at the playoffs assuming health and development go where it should.

[MaceCase]

You don't? It's been what 10 years since they were in the playoffs? It's been since this year that a 2nd year mid-1st round draft pick made a big leap to valuable starter for us.

Funny you can claim I have no ability to see the future yet your reply says he would never realize his potential for this team.

 I'm making no claims of the future, I stated the fact that Payne has "contributed" in mop up duty in only ~3 games.  I'm not the one utilizing wish washy predictive skills here.

[MaceCase]

No chance millsap walks? No chance Pero gets hurt? No chance Al tears another pec?

He may well have gotten a chance, but I'm giving bud the BOTD. He didnt see much from Payne in practice

No chance they sign Marc Gasol to replace Sap?  No chance Scott, Muscala, Edy are future stars?  No chance the pick(s) become the next Parker/Ginobili/Sap?

 

The "what if" game can be played in either direction by blue eyed believers or whiny doubters.  I prefer to stroll down the more analytical path laid out by Fanatic which placed Payne firmly behind the 8-Ball on a stacked rotation that Bud himself said he can't find enough minutes for.

[bumpyphish1]

Doesn't matter what you call it, there's almost no chance we gain the same value back. Hell we aren't even getting any interest in this milk money we have a tiny chance of getting back.

I'm going to laugh when all of you praising the Hawks for this move look silly when Payne becomes a good player in the next year and in 2021 we finally get a 2nd round pick for him.

 

If that scenario happens, this will have been a terrible move.  On the contrary, if Payne is a complete bust and we get a player in 2018 that is better sooner than Payne ever is, we will rejoice.  

 

It's one of the more interesting trades I can recall for sure.

[bumpyphish1]

And yeah, we are, starting next season, officially Timberwolves fans until we get a pick from them.

 

So...

 

1) Continue to root like hell for the Nets to lose THIS SEASON.

2) Root like hell for the TWolves to lose THIS SEASON (best chance for #1 pick/franchise changer) and win starting NEXT SEASON.

3) Enjoy the ride Coach Bud and our squad is taking us on.

 

Got it.

 

EDIT That!

 

And yeah, we are, starting in the 2016-17 season, officially Timberwolves fans until we get a pick from them.

 

So...

 

1) Continue to root like hell for the Nets to lose THIS SEASON.

2) Root like hell for the TWolves to lose THIS SEASON and NEXT SEASON (best chance for #1 pick/franchise changer) and win starting 2016-17 SEASON.

3) Enjoy the ride Coach Bud and our squad is taking us on.

 

Got it?

[MCVicious]

At least we know we are better at picking in the second round.

 

Lets not be so fast to knock second rounders, hell a majority of our team may soon be comprised of second rounders:

 

Scott

Millsap

Muscala

Tavares 

Mack

Korver

[Gray Mule]

This is a win - win move by Atlanta.

 

Payne was not being used here.  He was not going to be used.

If he does well with the T Wolves, they win games and make the playoffs.

This gives us a first round pick in the future to take or use in a trade.

If he turns out to be no good, of no real use, what did we lose?

 

We've talked about milk cartons and $20.00 bills.  Lets look at something

more substantial. 

 

Lets say, you have a new truck.  It is being parked and never used because

you have a full fleet or trucks.  Yet, having this truck financed, every month

you must make the payment.  It isn't the type truck you need.

 

Someone offers you your down payment back and buy the truck and take over

the payments on it.  You are free.  Later, you want a new truck.  You still have

the down payment money!  Now, you own a new truck you can use and owe no

more than you did on that other truck.

 

Why hold on to an asset you aren't using and have no plans to use?

 

THE FUTURE OF THE ATLANTA HAWKS IS UPON US!

Edited February 11, 2015 by Gray Mule

[Admin]

Players have contracts and you're missing that point here. I can totally get your point that Payne might turn out to be awesome and we are taking a risk that our future draft pick might not be that good. It's a bit of a "grass isn't always greener" type of argument, but I think you're missing the value of rookies here.

Is Dennis valuable to this team? Sure, but you also know that he is under contract for less that $2m. He is at that value because rookies cannot negotiate contracts. If Dennis could negotiate, what do you think he would cost this team next year? Some value greater than $2m. And THAT is where the rookie value comes in because rookie contracts only last so long before they expire and you have to pay up. Payne isn't producing and won't produce with our current frontcourt plus future frontcourt with Mike and Edy. So why waste that asset? Why keep milk in your fridge when you have no need for it? I'd much rather have that cash or coupon for later than the milk (I won't use) today.

The rookie salary is easy to grasp but doesn't remotely cancel out the fact that at best we took a 15th pick and in a few years we can get a 15th pick back. That sucks and it's not something I can imagine anyone feeling ok with it. If you want to get all warm and fuzzy over the team cutting bait now instead of hanging onto him forever then that's fine but it's kind of sad that we'd have to be ok with losing our 1st round pick that just 4-5 months ago Al said was a tremendous player.

I also think you're making an enormous assumption that he won't produce on this team. If this were a raw kid like Bebe I could understand this point but Payne was a very good college player and he's matured into his body and has put up terrific d league stats, looking better than Moose. I know you guys are high on Edy but I'm highly skeptical someone as goofy as him can play at this level. As to Moose I like him but he's incredibly soft in the paint. Planning our future front court around those 2 doesn't inspire any confidence in me.

[Admin]

I'm making no claims of the future, I stated the fact that Payne has "contributed" in mop up duty in only ~3 games. I'm not the one utilizing wish washy predictive skills here.

You were. Go back and read your post where you said he'd never... That's predictive.

[Guest]

The rookie salary is easy to grasp but doesn't remotely cancel out the fact that at best we took a 15th pick and in a few years we can get a 15th pick back. That sucks and it's not something I can imagine anyone feeling ok with it. If you want to get all warm and fuzzy over the team cutting bait now instead of hanging onto him forever then that's fine but it's kind of sad that we'd have to be ok with losing our 1st round pick that just 4-5 months ago Al said was a tremendous player.

I also think you're making an enormous assumption that he won't produce on this team. If this were a raw kid like Bebe I could understand this point but Payne was a very good college player and he's matured into his body and has put up terrific d league stats, looking better than Moose. I know you guys are high on Edy but I'm highly skeptical someone as goofy as him can play at this level. As to Moose I like him but he's incredibly soft in the paint. Planning our future front court around those 2 doesn't inspire any confidence in me.

You aren't grasping the rookie scale though. I can only describe it in so many ways.

[MaceCase]

You were. Go back and read your post where you said he'd never... That's predictive.

Ah, given that he had managed to play only 19 minutes out of a possible 2,544 and is now.....uhm....traded having a lot to do with that previous fact, my saying that he would never realize his alleged potential on THIS (the emphasis was made contextually following yet another emphasis MADE BY YOU to the CURRENT YEAR) team could be labeled as being on the same level predictive sorcery as THE WOLVES WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS FOREVER BASED ON HAVING NOT DONE SO RECENTLY WHILE PAYNE IS THE TRUTH BASED ON.....NEVAMIND WHAT IT'S BASED ON HE DA TRUTH! 

[Guest]

Ah, given that he had managed to play only 19 minutes out of a possible 2,544 and is now.....uhm....traded having a lot to do with that previous fact, my saying that he would never realize his alleged potential on THIS (the emphasis was made contextually following yet another emphasis MADE BY YOU to the CURRENT YEAR) team could be labeled as being on the same level predictive sorcery as THE WOLVES WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS FOREVER BASED ON HAVING NOT DONE SO RECENTLY WHILE PAYNE IS THE TRUTH BASED ON.....NEVAMIND WHAT IT'S BASED ON HE DA TRUTH!

Yeah, but what if Adreian did end up becoming the superstar high flying amazing frontcourt player that we all know he will be?

[MaceCase]

Yeah, but what if Adreian did end up becoming the superstar high flying amazing frontcourt player that we all know he will be?

Well I'm pretty sure that when I was 13 I killed off at least a million people that could have gone on to find the cure for cancer.  Coincidentally I also killed off a million Hitlers so perhaps it was a wash?

[Guest]

It's sucks that it appears to be another failed 1st pick that won't do anything ON the court for the Hawks, How-eva, he couldn't get on the floor this season, it has to be that Coach Bud has seen enough to know he has no future here. We did get something of value in return for future use. We can use the pick combined with a player in a trade even before 2017 rolls around. If we kept him.and he couldnt gwt on the floor his value woukd have further declined. It'll be easier to use the pick in a trade that AP and his salary.

[Vol4ever]

I think there are several reasons that led to him being traded and I'm not sure anybody except the front office knows that answer:

 

1.  Wasnt the player they thought he would be and didnt fit in with buds philiosphy

2.  Could not learn the system

3.  Just dindt have the physical tools

4.  Health issues that are popping up.

[AHF]

I've read through the entire thread.  I get both the arguments about spoiling milk rookie contracts and the risk that we end up with second round picks 6 and 7 years out instead of a player right now.

 

I have seen the comments about roster flexibility and throw that out as a red herring.  Jenkins is our guy to cut for roster flexibility and we can do that at a moment's notice.  Given that there is nothing imminent as Bud said and the fact that we would need to add two players to the roster for Payne's spot to become relevant, this is a red herring and should not be mentioned again.

 

Finally, I have seen the comments about our young bigs and developing them.  Then I look at our roster and see Millsap 2015 UFA, Brand likely 2015 retiree, Moose and Edy.  I think Edy has a very high ceiling and moderate floor due to his tools and development (i.e., not much of a basketball background but great progress in a short period off time) while Moose can be a valuable rotation player off the bench but won't ever be a big impact guy.

 

My bottomline take?

 

The coach(es) and/or front office concluded that Payne wasn't milk on the shelf that was at risk of spoiling.  If Sap jumps to another team, we didn't want Payne stepping into his spot.  If we have an injury, Payne is so far from actually contributing that he wouldn't be part of the rotation.  We didn't see a Dennis like development coming.

 

We concluded Payne was spilled milk.  

 

Once you acknowledge that player was a mistake, as with Bebe, you unload him for the best value you see and move on.  That is what we did here.  I am sure that Minny wasn't the only team we talked to but this was the best offer we could get.

 

I do not take this as a "he just can't get minutes right now but could be good in the future so let's give him away and wait 2-5 years and see if we can get someone who might earn minutes then."  I take this as a conclusion that "we blew the pick on someone who can't contribute now and doesn't have the ability to make the jump ala Dennis so let's focus development on the players we want to develop and add a potential first to our list of assets."  

 

No use crying over spilled milk.

[sturt]

Stopping to smell the roses...  ... no one to my knowledge has yet made the accusation that this deal was all about cheapskate owners.

[Guest]

I'm thinking Payne just wasn't a "Bud" guy. Payne probably needed the ball in his hands too much of the time to be productive. We are running a hot potato offense. Some guys just need to handle the rock, hold it, dribble excessively, etc. As Chris Paul might have said in this situation regarding Payne, "Maybe this isn't for HIM".

[Guest]

The coach(es) and/or front office concluded that Payne wasn't milk on the shelf that was at risk of spoiling.  If Sap jumps to another team, we didn't want Payne stepping into his spot.  If we have an injury, Payne is so far from actually contributing that he wouldn't be part of the rotation.  We didn't see a Dennis like development coming.

 

We concluded Payne was spilled milk.  

Analogies inherently suck because some sort of meaning is always missed. But the idea with spoiled milk is that you have an asset that rapidly depreciates and in the case of a rookie it can be easily mapped out to be 4 years...maybe 5 if you really want to bitch about it. If you aren't using the asset, then it is like spoiling milk as it just sits there. Everything you've said goes right in line with that analogy, but for some reason you're calling it spilled milk.

Your spilled milk is a way to imply that Payne isn't as good as the Hawks thought he was, so they are cutting bait now. Errr...you know what? Maybe that is true. Maybe it's not. That is pretty much irrelevant though. If you're not going to use an asset that is depreciating rapidly, well you can think of it as a sunk cost and just leave it in your fridge to rot. That is foolish though because you've got a neighbor who is willing to take the milk off your hands. Maybe the offer is 80 cents on the dollar, maybe it's 40 cents on the dollar. The value really doesn't matter (which is what a spilled milk analogy seems to imply).

Rookies are not assets like dollars. If they were, then yes it is obvious that $20 today is more valuable than $20 tomorrow. That's simple to see and intuitively appealing. But a rookie's value is based upon the quality of his play as well as how much he costs. The spoiled milk analogy does not touch on Payne's value except to the obvious extent that the guy isn't going to play right now and it is highly likely he would not be needed in the future (I've explained the value of Millsap's current contract which it should be clear that he is highly likely to resign with the Hawks at the Early Bird Exception Max). I'm really trying hard not to make this about how good of a player Payne is or will be since that complicates the point I'm trying to make. It's a side street I don't care to walk down.