NBA Player Projections ( Hawks )

[TheNorthCydeRises]

fivethirtyeight.com ... which is on ESPN.com, has a page in which you can see future player projections of every player who was in the league last year and about 80 incoming college players. CARMELO is the name of the statistical algorithm that they use.  And it relies heavily on WAR ( Wins Above Replacement ).

What they do is define a player's skillet relative to how he is currently viewed around the league ... identify past and current comparable players ... and make a future projection of what that player will be, based off of his skill set and player comparisons.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/

For example, let's take Joe Johnson. Many people were against giving him all of that money 5 years ago, because they felt that he'd have a future career path similar to Michael Finley's career after age 29.

At age 34, JJ is considered to be a "rotational player" - who compares most closely to the 2012 version of Vince Carter, with a (61) score, and maybe has about 3 more years left in him before he becomes a negative WAR player.  The next 2 players he was most like, were 2002 Glenn Rice (58) and 2005 Latrell Spreewell  (54).  2008 Michael Finley (48), was 10th.

Here are the similarity score ratings.

SIMILARITY SCORE	DESCRIPTION
100	Perfect score; identical
60-99	Separated at birth
50-59	Extremely similar
40-49	Highly similar
30-39	Mostly similar
20-29	Partly similar
1-19	Somewhat similar
0	As similar as dissimilar
<0	More dissimilar than similar

I'll list the name of the Hawk, his skill level ( according to them ), the player he most closely resembles, and his similarity score to that player.  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

AL HORFORD - 30 yrs old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#al-horford

* Good starter 

* 2014 Chris Bosh (52)

* Declining WAR for the next 7 years, but with the potential to have a WAR above 5 for the next 5 years.

They are really projecting him to go into an offensive decline after this season, with a negative offensive +/- for the rest of his career.   I guess they're factoring in a decline in athletic ability and his inability to get to the FT line, which may affect his shot and scoring potential. Defense is projected to remain above average.

Other player comparisons:  1971 Bob Lanier (51) - 2000 Tom Gugliotta (50)

 

 

PAUL MILLSAP - 29 yrs old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#paul-millsap

* Borderline All-Star

* 2013 Gerald Wallace (55)

* Declining WAR for the next 7 years, but with the potential to post an 8 WAR for the next 

I find it interesting that the player he is most like, was 2013 Gerald Wallace.  Gerald was a SF, who frequently played the 4, and made his team defensively better when he was on the floor. Paul is an average sized 4, who may have to play some SF.  Gerald didn't offensively play like Millsap, but was a "jack of all trades" similar to what Millsap is.

Defensive metrics LOVE Millsap. And like Horford, those metrics are not projected to decline.  Offensively, he's still projected to be a + offensive player through 2018.

Other player comparisons: 1993 Jerome Kersey (52) - 1980 Julius Erving, Dr J (50)

[TheNorthCydeRises]

JEFF TEAGUE - 27 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#jeff-teague

* Average starter

* 2015 Ty Lawson (64)

* Declining WAR for the next 7 years, with the potential to post 2 more seasons as good as last year.

Jeff had a very good offensive year in 2014 - 15, but I guess the CARMELO algorithm thinks it was a fluke.  While they still have him being a + offensive player, his offensive +/- will regress to Drew's version of Teague in the coming years.  And his defense will regress as well.

At best, Teague fulfills his NBAdraft.net rookie projection of Kevin Johnson, who at age 27, averaged 19 pts - 9 asst - 49% FG.  The true test of Bud's player development program, is if Teague continues to play well, and not regress into "Timid Teague".

Other player comparisons: 1996 Eric Murdock, 1978 Paul Westphal (58), Kevin Johnson (56)

 

KYLE KORVER - 34 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#kyle-korver

* Borderline All-Star

* 1999 Mario Elie (31)

* Declining WAR for the next 6 years, but has the potential to post an 8+ WAR for the next 2 years.

Advanced metrics love Korver on the offensive side of the ball.  His ability to make a high percentage of his 3 point shots will always keep him being a + offensive player.

It'll be interesting to see how long he can be an effective starter. Ideally, he'd be our 6th man, so that we can preserve him throughout the year and have him fresh for the playoffs.  But with few legit shooting options at the wing, he has to start.

Other comparable players:  2010 Ray Allen (27), 1994 Danny Ainge (26)

 

Edited October 10, 2015 by TheNorthCydeRises

[TheNorthCydeRises]

DENNIS SCHRÖDER - 22 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#dennis-Schröder

* Project

* 2008 Marcus Williams (59) ....ugh

* An average WAR of zero, until possibly 2019, where he might be the starter or a high quality 6th man and post close to a 5 WAR.

While Dennis is already better than Marcus Williams, who didn't even last 4 seasons in the league, it's troubling to see his player projections.  Almost every person he's compared to, is a shoot first PG or a scrub PG who didn't last in the league.  From the amount of minutes he's projected to play in coming years, they don't see him being a starter.

And while fans see him as having defensive ability, his defensive metrics are horrible, and aren't projected to become better. Once again, this is where we can see if Bud's player development program can improve a player.  

Other player comparisons: 2011 Johnny Flynn (55), 2013 Kemba Walker (53)

 

TIAGO SPLITTER - 31 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#tiago-splitter

* Key role player

* 1991 Frank Brickowski - (51)

* 3 more possible years of a 5+ WAR, with total minutes going below 1000 in 2018.

We will quickly see if Tiago's great defensive metrics are a product of his own athletic ability and being able to learn the Spurs defensive system ... or if Tim Duncan and his defense made everyone's defense better.

When healthy, Splitter has proven to be an asset with being able to guard both Cs and PFs.  If the Hawks are able to play Millsap at the 3, a "big" lineup of Splitter, Horford, and Millsap may be a top 5 defensive frontline in the NBA for the next 2 - 3 years.

Other comparable players:  2012 Nick Collison, 2006 Kevin Cato, 1995 John Salley (49) 

 

Edited October 10, 2015 by TheNorthCydeRises

[NBASupes]

AL HORFORD - 30 yrs old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#al-horford

* Good starter 

* 2014 Chris Bosh (52)

* Declining WAR for the next 7 years, but with the potential to have a WAR above 5 for the next 5 years.

They are really projecting him to go into an offensive decline after this season, with a negative offensive +/- for the rest of his career.   I guess they're factoring in a decline in athletic ability and his inability to get to the FT line, which may affect his shot and scoring potential. Defense is projected to remain above average.

Other player comparisons:  1971 Bob Lanier (51) - 2000 Tom Gugliotta (50)

 

 

PAUL MILLSAP - 29 yrs old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#paul-millsap

* Borderline All-Star

* 2013 Gerald Wallace (55)

* Declining WAR for the next 7 years, but with the potential to post an 8 WAR for the next 

I find it interesting that the player he is most like, was 2013 Gerald Wallace.  Gerald was a SF, who frequently played the 4, and made his team defensively better when he was on the floor. Paul is an average sized 4, who may have to play some SF.  Gerald didn't offensively play like Millsap, but was a "jack of all trades" similar to what Millsap is.

Defensive metrics LOVE Millsap. And like Horford, those metrics are not projected to decline.  Offensively, he's still projected to be a + offensive player through 2018.

Other player comparisons: 1993 Jerome Kersey (52) - 1980 Julius Erving, Dr J (50)

Al was coming off an injury last year and didn't perform at his usual level. This off-season, he added the 3 ball and he's been a lot more reliable in the post. He should have his best season since entering the NBA. 

 

I can see the similarities for Sap to Wallace in terms of impact. The way they did it was completely different. Crash was more of an elite athlete while Sap is cerebral in his apporch. 

[NBASupes]

JEFF TEAGUE - 27 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#jeff-teague

* Average starter

* 2015 Ty Lawson (64)

* Declining WAR for the next 7 years, with the potential to post 2 more seasons as good as last year.

Jeff had a very good offensive year in 2014 - 15, but I guess the CARMELO algorithm thinks it was a fluke.  While they still have him being a + offensive player, his offensive +/- will regress to Drew's version of Teague in the coming years.  And his defense will regress as well.

At best, Teague fulfills his NBAdraft.net rookie projection of Kevin Johnson, who at age 27, averaged 19 pts - 9 asst - 49% FG.  The true test of Bud's player development program, is if Teague continues to play well, and not regress into "Timid Teague".

Other player comparisons: 1996 Eric Murdock, 1978 Paul Westphal (58), Kevin Johnson (56)

 

KYLE KORVER - 34 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#kyle-korver

* Borderline All-Star

* 1999 Mario Elie (31)

* Declining WAR for the next 6 years, but has the potential to post an 8+ WAR for the next 2 years.

Advanced metrics love Korver on the offensive side of the ball.  His ability to make a high percentage of his 3 point shots will always keep him being a + offensive player.

It'll be interesting to see how long he can be an effective starter. Ideally, he'd be our 6th man, so that we can preserve him throughout the year and have him fresh for the playoffs.  But with few legit shooting options at the wing, he has to start.

Other comparable players:  2010 Ray Allen (27), 1994 Danny Ainge (26)

 

I'll tell anyone who is will listen that when he came out of WF, he was KJ Jr then he wasn't developing and was much raw compared to KJ for his first three seasons. Now his development has continued and while last year could seem like an anomaly, this off-season and pre-season proved that Jeff is getting better, stronger and playing smart Basketball. He is improving. I don't see regression. I am not sure what the Hawks will do considering Dennis and Jeff are both exp contracts in 2016. 

 

I think Kyle's starter days end next season if THJr is up for the challenge. As for now, Korver is perfect for our system and his metrics proves it. 

[NBASupes]

DENNIS SCHRÖDER - 22 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#dennis-Schröder

* Project

* 2008 Marcus Williams (59) ....ugh

* An average WAR of zero, until possibly 2019, where he might be the starter or a high quality 6th man and post close to a 5 WAR.

While Dennis is already better than Marcus Williams, who didn't even last 4 seasons in the league, it's troubling to see his player projections.  Almost every person he's compared to, is a shoot first PG or a scrub PG who didn't last in the league.  From the amount of minutes he's projected to play in coming years, they don't see him being a starter.

And while fans see him as having defensive ability, his defensive metrics are horrible, and aren't projected to become better. Once again, this is where we can see if Bud's player development program can improve a player.  

Other player comparisons: 2011 Johnny Flynn (55), 2013 Kemba Walker (53)

 

TIAGO SPLITTER - 31 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#tiago-splitter

* Key role player

* 1991 Frank Brickowski - (51)

* 3 more possible years of a 5+ WAR, with total minutes going below 1000 in 2018.

We will quickly see if Tiago's great defensive metrics are a product of his own athletic ability and being able to learn the Spurs defensive system ... or if Tim Duncan and his defense made everyone's defense better.

When healthy, Splitter has proven to be an asset with being able to guard both Cs and PFs.  If the Hawks are able to play Millsap at the 3, a "big" lineup of Splitter, Horford, and Millsap may be a top 5 defensive frontline in the NBA for the next 2 - 3 years.

Other comparable players:  2012 Nick Collison, 2006 Kevin Cato, 1995 John Salley (49) 

 

Dennis is a key comparison to me of a flawed project who is extremely talented. He's too difficult to rate on a metrics chart because their more than likely going to be horrible due to his inconsistency. Then again, he was one of the worst players in the NBA as a rookie, one of the better up and coming players as a Soph and is looking to make an elite 6th man jump in his 3rd year. His progression is massive as is his potential. Sometimes you have to ignore metric charts. That's how you miss on Russell Westbrook's of the world.

 

I agree with Tiago. He's better than the names he's compared to but stat wise, he's similar to all of those guys. He does a lot more intangibles but has more skill than Collison.  

[benhillboy]

Love these types of metrics, I keep a close eye on them concerning NFL QBs on PFR.

Millsap equals 1980 Dr. J?!  I'll take it.  

I pretty much agree with their assessment of Al's questionable and declining offensive ability.  Never really cared for Bosh but I definitely respect him.

The Ray-Ray draw for Kyle is a no-brainier.  Interesting to see Mario Ellie as the other.  Makes sense, most NBA fans don't know Kyle is tough and resourceful outside of his specialty.

Of course I gotta disagree with their projection on Dennis and go with my eyes.  His full-court pressures are integral to setting the table for our defense, his gaudy rim attempts and solid free throw attempts for his minutes should have him ranked much higher than a guy I've never heard of in Marcus Williams.  

 

I wanted to see who they projected Moose as but he probably doesn't have enough minutes.  I checked the PF PER last year for some comparisons, looking to find him around the 40-ish range.  He was 20th (Payne last, ha). He's probably weaker than everyone else listed, smarter than a majority.  Moves very well, won't take excessive threes.  I want him somewhere between peak Nick Collison and Brad Miller-working-his-way-toward-All-Star-consideration.  That would make him a very valuable trade asset/ fringe starter for a lesser team/ key role playe for us.  

[Guest]

That Dennis comparison to Marcus Williams threw me for a loop.  Not even close.  Anyway........Dennis and KK working on his jumper:

"The young point guard and the sharp-shooting veteran had several conversations throughout the year about working out together this offseason. Schröder wanted to improve his jump shot and who better to seek his tutelage? So this summer, Schröder visited Korver in Santa Barbara, Calif. for nearly two weeks of instruction and additional workouts at renowned performance facility P3. “We just worked on his mechanics to tighten a few things up,” Korver said. “Dennis has great natural talent and ability. His release is really good. We can all get better. We worked on his feet and his legs a little bit, maybe things we don’t always think about. "

– via Atlanta Journal-Constitution

 Dennis Schröder, Kyle Korver,Atlanta Hawks

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

MIKE MUSCALA - 24 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#mike-muscala

* Rotation player

* 2011 DJ White (48)

* WAR number is expected to hover around 2 in the coming years, while playing 800 - 1100 total minutes per season

They're basically projecting Muscala to take Mike Scotts's spot in the rotation. Surprisingly, he's projected to be a + defender and a minus offensive player, despite being a + offensive player last season.  I think they're placing a lot of stock in his rebounding ability on defense, but punishing him on offense for not getting to the FT line, like they did Horford.

Other player projections: 1989 Brad Lohaus (47), 1985 Fred Roberts (46)

 

MIKE SCOTT - 27 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#mike-scott

* Scrub ... ( as Mike would say ... lol )

* 2008 Brian Cook (61)

* His WAR is expected to hover around zero for the rest of his career, with his total minutes going below 1000 after this season.

Absolutely no respect for Mike Molly. Then again, Scott is normally a feast or famine offensive player. We all know he's a minus defender, and is projected to stay that way.  Question is, can he become a + offensive player?  Future projections say no.  Bud's development system may say otherwise.

I've long said that he needs to lay off from taking so many 3s, because his midrange game is nice.

Other player projections: 1991 Mark Alarie (58), 2009 Jarvis Hayes (56)

[TheNorthCydeRises]

KENT BAZEMORE - 26 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#kent-bazemore

* Defensive specialist 

* 1988 Craig Ehlo (56)

* Projected not to develop much in the coming years, with his WAR hanging around zero. A decline in minutes is also projected after this season.

Needless to say, this is a pivotal year in Bazemore's future. It looks like Bud is going to give him a chance at significant playing time. If he improves offensively, we can see his career arc up like Ehlo's did.  If he doesnt, he may become the next Damien Wilkins, who is his #10 player comparison.

During the Cleveland series, when the Hawks were struggling to score points, Charles Barkley stated that the guy who may be able to create his own offense, was Kent Bazemore. That didn't come to life last year, but let's see what he does this year.

Other player comparisons:  1997 Mitchell Butler (55), 1994 Paul "Snoop" Graham (51) ... the former Hawk, whose minutes were ironically taken by Craig Ehlo

 

TIM HARDAWAY JR - 23 years old

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#tim-hardaway-jr

* Offensive specialist 

* 1985 Jeff Malone

* While his WAR is projected to hover around zero, he's projected to become a 6the man type offensive player, while still being terrible on defense.

If THJ develops to be a player anywhere close to Jeff Malone, we just acquired an offensive stud.  He didn't play a lick of defense, but boy could he score the ball.

THJ and Sefolosha/Bazemore may be good offensive and defensive compliments while playing together.  THJ's defense must improve though, even if just a little.

Other player comparisons: 2012 Wayne Ellington (55), 2011 CJ Miles (51)

[benhillboy]

Yeah. I just got a second to check out  Mike.  He's a good team defender so I'm guessing that accounts for the higher than expected rating there.  I'll gladly take '86 Antione Carr.

I could play with that matrix all day.  Michael Jordan's arc looks like it's on a different graph.  Timmy will never fall off, 87 Kareem this year?  Lol at Carmelo being a "good starter".  Vince is one of the more underrated players of All-Time, his arc has been so steady for so long.

Real smart to combine 2 developing players on the wing, one a defensive specialist in Baze and an offensive one in Lil Tim.  I'm sure Bud and them had this type of info a couple years ago.

Edited October 10, 2015 by benhillboy

[Plainview1981]

I was high on Mike Scott before the start of last season, but he had a mostly poor year last year and his off the court issues do not help. I don't think his future here is very bright.

 

Horford really wasn't that great as a producer last year. His scoring was largely unimpressive, his shooting was down... And he basically never gets to the FT line now. I think maybe that 2nd injury took away from his abilities to some degree.

[capstone21]

That Dennis comparison to Marcus Williams threw me for a loop.  Not even close.  Anyway........Dennis and KK working on his jumper:

"The young point guard and the sharp-shooting veteran had several conversations throughout the year about working out together this offseason. Schröder wanted to improve his jump shot and who better to seek his tutelage? So this summer, Schröder visited Korver in Santa Barbara, Calif. for nearly two weeks of instruction and additional workouts at renowned performance facility P3. “We just worked on his mechanics to tighten a few things up,” Korver said. “Dennis has great natural talent and ability. His release is really good. We can all get better. We worked on his feet and his legs a little bit, maybe things we don’t always think about. "

– via Atlanta Journal-Constitution

 Dennis Schröder, Kyle Korver,Atlanta Hawks

 

this is another reason why I love KK on our team.