A too-early 15-man roster projection

[sturt]

...based on these premises:

1) Supes' intel is correct on Deng.

2) Budcox has, indeed, decided that Bazemore is the future.

3) Horford is, indeed, in the proverbial barn.

4) My own inclination that the minutes voided by Teague's exit will be filled by a veteran scoring PG.

5) That while we don't pick up Scott's option, we re-sign him for a lower number (which I think only makes sense for both parties).

6) Like every other rookie that preceded them during this regime, Bembry and Prince will spend most of their first year either filling-in for injured players or playing for a D-league team... hopefully, our very own, btw.

7) Wilcox's draft night words should be taken sincerely to mean they really do regard Bembry as a legit distributor, and thus capable of filling the 3rd PG slot.

Does this roster get us to conference contender status?

The first reaction for most is probably "no".... but what might be missing from that first reaction is an appreciation for what Budcox sees (a) in Schröder's improvement, (b) in Bazemore continuing to improve further, and (c) in finally having Splitter for a full year. Then, there's also some reason for optimism that Hardaway, Muscala, and in particular, Tavares will all progress, mature and improve.

So... yes... I can see us actually achieving something with this roster, but it almost completely depends on Schröder and Bazemore taking that next step and asserting themselves as one of the most potent backcourts in the East.

[sturt]

Pretending for the moment that Baze gets $15m, the ballpark numbers I'm running end up with having to divvy up $13m between Deng and Jennings.

Not sure that's do-able.

I'm thinking Deng will be in the $12m territory all by himself... am I wrong?

[IheartVolt]

Please dear Lord do not let this happen.

I do not like your projection at all

[IheartVolt]

I hope one of the rookies contributes in a surprising way. I am sorry but Deng is a very hard pill to swallow even for this year and this year only. I would rather give the rookie burn to experience growing pains

[sturt]

Soooooo.... to my question, though, @IheartFerry.... you don't think Deng gets $12m/yr?

[IheartVolt]

Just now, sturt said:

Soooooo.... to my question, though, @IheartFerry.... you don't think Deng gets $12m/yr?

Not saying that. I am saying it should not be us who pays him. He would be awesome off bench but we both know he is not gonna accept that with us so the world turns

[IheartVolt]

Alright.. What I believe is Deng would be a wasted signing here and I really do not think anyone can argue that. If we sign Deng we are not winning anything next year. At best it might pit us back at the level we were at last year. Which is what? Lebrons rug on his front porch to wipe his shoe that has pooh on it. 

Deng does not help us and in fact he would be an obstacle to the development of our young talent. He has what two years tops? Why even waste time entertaining the idea? Deng needs to go to San Antonio or OKC for support , not here

[sturt]

Of course, I was hoping you would say, "Nah, no way... $8m maybe"... would like to think I'm over-estimating.

(Now watch... he'll get $18m from someone. And, if that's the case, you and I both will be wishing we could afford him b/c it will mean we couldn't afford anything worth having anyhow.)

[IheartVolt]

2 minutes ago, sturt said:

Of course, I was hoping you would say, "Nah, no way... $8m maybe"... would like to think I'm over-estimating.

(Now watch... he'll get $18m from someone. And, if that's the case, you and I both will be wishing we could afford him b/c it will mean we couldn't afford anything worth having anyhow.)

Funny thing is if we max out Al and sign Baze that is gonna be exactly what's gonna happen. Meanwhile Golden State is making a run at Durant. Funny how that works wouldn't you say?

[sturt]

Wait. You're saying that what happens to Al and Baze controls the market?... and so, if we max Al, that sets things up for Deng to get $18m?

(Just to be clear.)

[Lurker]

What I'd prefer to see:

Schröder/Chalmers (could be any veteran but I'll say him in this case)/Bembry
Bazemore/Korver/Hardaway Jr 
Prince/Sefolosha/Bembry
Millsap/Teletovic/Random Veteran
Horford/Humphries/Tavares

I don't necessarily mean that Prince has to start, but I'd like to see the young players start getting more playing time than they have. Team isn't contending for anything significant no matter what the Hawks brass may think, so why not?

What will likely happen (and it'll have me very frustrated):

Schröder/(Chalmers, Jennings, or Mack)/Bembry
Korver/Hardaway Jr/Bembry
Bazemore/Sefolosha/Prince
Millsap/Scott/Muscala
Horford/Humphries/Tavares

This is the "let's bring everyone back besides Teague move". While I've said I think Schröder starting will work out to not lead to much regression overall, why do this?

Why do you continue starting Korver?

Why do you bring back a 6 foot 5 shooting guard to play out of position again?

[Lurker]

And I don't necessarily mean give the rookies a LOT of playing time immediately, but let them play some, let them get in for spurts to show what they've got right now. More with Prince though than Bembry, as Bembry needs to really work on that shot.

[sturt]

10 hours ago, sturt said:

...based on these premises:

1) Supes' intel is correct on Deng.

2) Budcox has, indeed, decided that Bazemore is the future.

3) Horford is, indeed, in the proverbial barn.

4) My own inclination that the minutes voided by Teague's exit will be filled by a veteran scoring PG.

5) That while we don't pick up Scott's option, we re-sign him for a lower number (which I think only makes sense for both parties).

6) Like every other rookie that preceded them during this regime, Bembry and Prince will spend most of their first year either filling-in for injured players or playing for a D-league team... hopefully, our very own, btw.

7) Wilcox's draft night words should be taken sincerely to mean they really do regard Bembry as a legit distributor, and thus capable of filling the 3rd PG slot.

Does this roster get us to conference contender status?

The first reaction for most is probably "no".... but what might be missing from that first reaction is an appreciation for what Budcox sees (a) in Schröder's improvement, (b) in Bazemore continuing to improve further, and (c) in finally having Splitter for a full year. Then, there's also some reason for optimism that Hardaway, Muscala, and in particular, Tavares will all progress, mature and improve.

So... yes... I can see us actually achieving something with this roster, but it almost completely depends on Schröder and Bazemore taking that next step and asserting themselves as one of the most potent backcourts in the East.

Feel pretty confident we'll find a better way to spend ~$28m than on Chalmers and Teletovic, plus Baze.

Key to signing Deng would be how many years we would be willing to give him.

 

[IheartVolt]

7 hours ago, sturt said:

Wait. You're saying that what happens to Al and Baze controls the market?... and so, if we max Al, that sets things up for Deng to get $18m?

(Just to be clear.)

No.. Reading way to deep man.. Way to deep

[Guest]

I'll post this here from the 'Durant' thread:

Can we ALL agree that Kevin Durant is not going to be a Hawk? Yes

Do we want him coming East to Boston or NYK? No

Of the Western teams on his list (excluding OKC): LAC, SAS, GSW where would you prefer him to go? LAC would most likely be a SnT for Blake Griffin, no help to the Hawks, I've soured on GSW but that would leave Barnes a FA who we can sign if interested  (I'm not sold on him). So my choice is SAS.  Yes, again. They need to clear approximately $14 mil (I think)  in  capspace to sign Durant. 

Yeah, yeah, yeah, - Bud helping out Pop yada, yada, yada - Durant's not coming here so I'm looking at improving our Hawks team.

So......here's the plan:

SAS trades the Hawks Danny Green($10 mil) and Patty Mills($3.2mil)  for two future 2nd rounnders.  We've just filled 2 spots, starting SG which moves Korver to the bench, and backup PG with the proposed money for Bazemore. Green struggled much of last season with his shot but his defense was still on point. He had offseason lasik eye surgery so hopefully he can see better and regain his shooting stroke, lol.

Hawks new lineup (assuming most of our players are back):

Dennis(2.7)/Mills(3.2)/Pattson(1)
Danny(10)/Korver(5)/THJr(2.2)
Prince(2.5)/Thabo(4)/Bembry(1.5)
Paul(20)/Scott(3.3)/Moose(1)
Al(18)/Splitter(8.25)/Edy(1)

So that's $83.65 million total which leaves us with approximately  $10 mil left. That also includes a full roster, so i would dump Moose or Patterson to clear a spot which gives us $11 mil for either Noah or Deng.

Option #2 (No Patterson)
Dennis(2.7)/Mills(3.2)
Danny(10)/Korver(5)/THJr(2.2)
Deng (11)/Thabo (4)/Prince(2.5)/Bembry(1.5)
Paul(20)/Scott(3.3)/Moose(1)
Al(18)/Splitter(8.25)/Edy(1)
$93.65 million

Or we can sign Baze if he'll take the $11 million (I feel some team will offer something crazy like $15)

Option #3 (No Moose)
Dennis(2.7)/Mills(3.2)/Patterson(1)
Danny(10)/Korver(5)/THJr(2.2)
Prince (2.5)/Thabo (4)/Bembry(1.5)
Paul(20)/Scott(3.3)
Al(18)/Noah(11)/Splitter(8.25)/Edy(1)
$93.65 million

 

Option #4

The remaining  $10 million after the trade can be used any number of ways if not for Baze, Noah and Deng. We can add Scott's $3.3 and/or Mooses $1 mil to have  $14 mill and upgrade our bench bigs with other players - I just haven't researched alternate options.

If  there are any errors with the numbers, feel free to point them out.

Ok, done - off to church.

[sturt]

Told you it was too early... 24 hours later, already tinkering..

So, as indicated above, I started looking more closely at numbers, and I'm feeling like it's too much to expect to sign Baze, Deng and Jennings with the projected ~$28m available.

And it makes more vivid sense to me now why someone (I think it was Supes) was asserting that we're likely going to pursue a trade to fill the slot behind Dennis--ie, guys on the market are going to just naturally be more expensive, whereas the guys who are already under contract were signed under the lesser caps and are, thus, naturally going to be a better value.

So, new theory--which looks a lot like a theory floated by others previously, but this now seems more likely given what was just mentioned in the previous paragraph, and given our inclination to deal with Quin Snyder and the boys in Salt Lake--UTA has a logjam now at PG, and Shelvin again is finding himself in the #3 slot behind newly acquired Hill and once again healthy Exum. It might take one 2nd rounder, it might take two, or we might just convey the rights to one of our current European assets, but it's got to be altogether do-able to re-acquire Mack. He's not the offensive weapon that Jennings is, but overall, he might be a better fit and especially so now that he's actually been the #1 for a team and enjoyed some success.

 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'll post this here from the 'Durant' thread:

Can we ALL agree that Kevin Durant is not going to be a Hawk? Yes

Do we want him coming East to Boston or NYK? No

Of the Western teams on his list (excluding OKC): LAC, SAS, GSW where would you prefer him to go? LAC would most likely be a SnT for Blake Griffin, no help to the Hawks, I've soured on GSW but that would leave Barnes a FA who we can sign if interested  (I'm not sold on him). So my choice is SAS.  Yes, again. They need to clear approximately $14 mil (I think)  in  capspace to sign Durant. 

Yeah, yeah, yeah, - Bud helping out Pop yada, yada, yada - Durant's not coming here so I'm looking at improving our Hawks team.

So......here's the plan:

SAS trades the Hawks Danny Green($10 mil) and Patty Mills($3.2mil)  for two future 2nd rounnders.  We've just filled 2 spots, starting SG which moves Korver to the bench, and backup PG with the proposed money for Bazemore. Green struggled much of last season with his shot but his defense was still on point. He had offseason lasik eye surgery so hopefully he can see better and regain his shooting stroke, lol.

Hawks new lineup (assuming most of our players are back):

Dennis(2.7)/Mills(3.2)/Pattson(1)
Danny(10)/Korver(5)/THJr(2.2)
Prince(2.5)/Thabo(4)/Bembry(1.5)
Paul(20)/Scott(3.3)/Moose(1)
Al(18)/Splitter(8.25)/Edy(1)

So that's $83.65 million total which leaves us with approximately  $10 mil left. That also includes a full roster, so i would dump Moose or Patterson to clear a spot which gives us $11 mil for either Noah or Deng.

....

Love the basic idea here... to once again capitalize on SAS' pursuit of a free agent. I mean, really, there's no argument that, if another situation developed as it did with Splitter, and we can get assets for pretty much loose change under our collective sofa... get-er-done is the word.

Of course, what might work (again) in our favor is the player's ties to God's country, ie Texas... Durant coming home would be so much fun, I might have to travel the 4 hours to watch that group play. Not hard to see this as a developing story, but for now, it's just this side of fetched, as opposed to far fetched which is on the other side.

 

Edited June 26, 2016 by sturt

[Alex]

Starters:

Dennis, Bazemore, Thabo, Millsap, Al

 

Bench:

Donald Sloan, Korver, Prince, Seraphin, Splitter

 

Others:

Lamar Patterson, Hardaway Jr, Bembry

 

D-League:

Costello and Tavares

[Jody23]

One thing I would be leery of is committing long term money to more marginal players.  I view the cap space the Hawks will have next offseason after alot of these current deals expire as an asset to building this team the right way long term.

[LikejRod29]

18 hours ago, sturt said:

Pretending for the moment that Baze gets $15m, the ballpark numbers I'm running end up with having to divvy up $13m between Deng and Jennings.

Not sure that's do-able.

I'm thinking Deng will be in the $12m territory all by himself... am I wrong?

 And this is why we do that trade I suggested in Homecourt