D8's possible impact on Off / Def Efficiency and Pt Diff?

[REHawksFan]

Ok so I'm a numbers guy and I'm intrigued by the idea that the improvement in team Rebounding by adding D8 (and losing AH) will ultimately increase Atl possessions and decrease opponent possessions and will therefore lead to increased point differentials for the Hawks which would presumably lead  to more wins.  That's my premise anyway. 

Just last year D8 avg 1.6 offensive Reb more than AH (3.4 / game to 1.8/game) and 2.9 defensive Reb more (8.4/game to 5.5/game) so that's a net of 4.5 more Hawk Reb per game.  Now if all of those came from the other team (as opposed to stealing some Reb from teammates) then theoretically the number of Atlanta Poss would increase by 4.5 while the number of opponent Poss would decrease by the same.  But let's assume that half of D8's incremental increase in Reb over AH  comes from a reduction in other Hawks rebounding (like Paul or Kyle or Baze) then that puts the overall increase for Hawks Rebounding per game at 2.25 and the decrease in opponents Rebounding at 2.25.  So theoretically this will increase the Hawks possessions by the same and decrease the opponents possessions.   Coincidentally, an increase of 2.25 Hawks rebounds per game with a corresponding decrease in Opponent rebounds would put the Hawks at a 50% RebRate which would rank about 14th in the NBA this past season.

Now, assuming the Hawks offensive and defensive efficiency ratings stay the same, their Avg Pts Scored and Pts Allowed should both improve as follows:

On offense:  Hawks Pts Per Possession = 1.03

Hawks Possessions = 99.4 / game , increased to 101.7 with D8 (99.4 + 2.25)  

Hawks pts scored increases from 102.8/ game to 104.8/ game (101.7 poss X 1.03 pts / poss)

 

On defense:  Hawks Pts per Possession = 0.988

Hawks pts / game allowed = 99.2 so Hawks opponents possessions = 100.4

With D8, Hawks opponents possessions reduced to 98.2 per game (100.4 - 2.25)

Hawks points allowed reduced from 99.2 / game to 97.0 (98.2 poss X 0.988 pts / poss)

 

SO......if these numbers held, the overall point differential would increase from +3.6 / game (102.8 scored vs 99.2 allowed) to +7.8 / game (104.8 scored vs 97.0 allowed).   I'm guessing that would yield more than 48 wins. 

 

Of course, the real question remains, will the Offensive and Defensive efficiency ratings stay the same with D8 instead of AH?  The answer is probably not.  In know D8's PPS this past year was not very good (or so I've read on one blog or another) , but it would seem like the offensive rating COULD improve a little with D8 taking more shots at the rim vs AH taking lower % shots this past year.  And the defensive rating could certainly improve a little with D8's superior shot blocking and altering ability. 

 

Thoughts?  

 

I think I'm looking at this correctly but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong regarding the premise of increased team Rebounding leading to Increased Possessions.   

EDIT:  I just looked it up and D8 was actually 2nd among qualified C with a 1.63 PPS so that's really good. The problem in Hou is he only attempted 8.5 shots / game. AH attembed 12.8 in Atl with only a 1.19 PPS. 

 

Edited July 18, 2016 by REHawksFan

[Misha Owens]

So basically Dwight will make us a better team 

[benhillboy]

I think he hurts both sides of efficiency.  Al and Sap weren't slouches in protecting the rim, but they also could guard the perimeter when necessary.  Dwight cannot.  And he's more likely to botch a PNR coverage and argue with his teammate about it.  

I can count the number of ball-handling offensive fouls called on the Hawks last year on one hand.  Dwight will surpass that total in a week.  They will be killers for the offensive flow, let alone his awful foul shooting.  There's also an article on SBNation about how he doesn't well fit with Dennis if you haven't seen it.  Judge for yourself.

I just checked his stats, you got to be kidding me.  I hate Dwight but even I would've thought he averaged 2 assist a game in at least one season.  He hasn't.  The man has a 2:1 Turnover to Assist Ratio.  Cmon man.  That's making your team worse.  There's no other way a guy so decorated can appear on losing teams a majority of his career.  

I have no idea what Bud expects to get out of this guy in reference to the system he's worked so hard to build.  Don't be surprised when Hump and Splitter finish games, igniting yet another media episode where Dwight isn't worth the trouble.

Edited July 18, 2016 by benhillboy

[AHF]

42 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

I just checked his stats, you got to be kidding me.  I hate Dwight but even I would've thought he averaged 2 assist a game in at least one season.  He hasn't.  The man has a 2:1 Turnover to Assist Ratio.  Cmon man.  That's making your team worse.  There's no other way a guy so decorated can appear on losing teams a majority of his career.  

This is bat#$*# insane.  The first season Dwight was old enough to drink was the only losing season he has had from the age of 21 on.  He has won 50+ games the majority of his seasons since he was 21.   The net record over that period is 495-309 for a winning % of 61.5%.

Orl 40-42

Orl 52-30

Orl 59-23

Orl 59-23

Orl 52-30

Orl 37-29

LA 45-37

HOU 54-28

HOU 56-26

HOU 41-41

[Peoriabird]

10 hours ago, benhillboy said:

 There's no other way a guy so decorated can appear on losing teams a majority of his career. 

Wow!! Credibility points lost with this 1 statement.  You were way off on this one!

[benhillboy]

Uhh, allow me to remove the foot in my mouth.  He's still a losing player, though.  One season of true contention.

Edited July 20, 2016 by benhillboy

[Jdawgflow]

1 hour ago, benhillboy said:

Uhh, allow me to remove the foot in my mouth.  He's still a losing player, though.  One season of true contention.

Love to read your thoughts brother, and you may be right, but Dwight has gotten further than our Hawks ever have in Atlanta in regards to contention.  Dwight may fall on his face here but we all have to believe there is hope of better things.  At least now we have that instead of knowing we are going down in the 2nd round.

[NBASupes]

On 7/18/2016 at 2:43 PM, benhillboy said:

I think he hurts both sides of efficiency.  Al and Sap weren't slouches in protecting the rim, but they also could guard the perimeter when necessary.  Dwight cannot.  And he's more likely to botch a PNR coverage and argue with his teammate about it.  

I can count the number of ball-handling offensive fouls called on the Hawks last year on one hand.  Dwight will surpass that total in a week.  They will be killers for the offensive flow, let alone his awful foul shooting.  There's also an article on SBNation about how he doesn't well fit with Dennis if you haven't seen it.  Judge for yourself.

I just checked his stats, you got to be kidding me.  I hate Dwight but even I would've thought he averaged 2 assist a game in at least one season.  He hasn't.  The man has a 2:1 Turnover to Assist Ratio.  Cmon man.  That's making your team worse.  There's no other way a guy so decorated can appear on losing teams a majority of his career.  

I have no idea what Bud expects to get out of this guy in reference to the system he's worked so hard to build.  Don't be surprised when Hump and Splitter finish games, igniting yet another media episode where Dwight isn't worth the trouble.

Color me somewhere in between this and the OP. I think he will be more efficient even if he makes just moderate improvement but is that enough to overcome our new flaws that we didn't have before. Which is why I need massive improvement from Howard

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Color me somewhere in between this and the OP. I think he will be more efficient even if he makes just moderate improvement but is that enough to overcome our new flaws that we didn't have before. Which is why I need massive improvement from Howard

I agree that Al and Sap were no slouches when it came to rim protection - the trouble is teams didn't see them as such and wern't deterred from driving the paint.  With Howard (if he can get back to form) he his a deterrent in that regard.  He has to improve his PnR and team defense.

On offense, there will be a learning curve.

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I agree that Al and Sap were no slouches when it came to rim protection - the trouble is teams didn't see them as such and wern't deterred from driving the paint.  With Howard (if he can get back to form) he his a deterrent in that regard.  He has to improve his PnR and team defense.

On offense, there will be a learning curve.

I think he could be special on offense but his body and conditioning has to improve. He needs to consistent put the energy that needed to make plays. If you watched him in Houston,  that energy wasn't there and the health was meh as well. 

He needs to do what Thabo did last year. I need his health and conditioning to improve.  I think Atlanta offense will be better with him due to the fact that he is still one of the best one dribble bigs in the NBA.  Now he can't dribble more than once effectively but unlike LA or Houston,  Atlanta moves off the ball extremely well which should clear up space for Howard. We also need him to have the energy to set excellent consistent screens.

 

Energy and conditioning is everything for Howard. He needs that and health. Then the rest is just playing to his strength and that should give him massive improvement. 

[benhillboy]

It's all on Bud.  If he can get this fool back to All-Star level he needs the key to Atlanta and all its bars.  He's administered much more drastic player improvements, but those guys had no issues with conditioning or attitude.  

I don't even care about football anymore, I wanna see this team  now dammit.  Notably a Dennis/Kyle/Prince/Sap/Hump lineup.

Edited July 21, 2016 by benhillboy