Current Hawks resemble Dantoni’s Phx Suns to you?

[AHF]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Correct, if his rookie year has 4, I lost, 5 I won. That means the bet rolls into 2020/21 like a draft pick if I lost. 

20/21, If he hit 4 or less, you win the entire bet. If he hits 5 or more, I win.

I'll look into the ones to add tonight. Then you can approve or disapprove and once we agree. The bet is on

So you've gone from him exceeding Every.  Single.  One. to not even having to win a majority of the categories?  You guaranteed he would beat every metric and that him doing this was "Easy money."

This is a massive moving target and loss of confidence in only like half an hour.

So now you want to cherry-pick each category from over two seasons and if he [edit: math doesn't work on the win/loss conditions you described so I'm deleting this comment] loses nearly half of them you still win?

I think we're seeing your real level of confidence coming through.

The bet I'm offering is either:

(a) Cam needing to win a majority of the 11 categories (10 + efg%) during your choice of (1) his rookie season, (2) his sophmore year or (3) his combined rookie and sophmore seasons; or

(b) Cam needing to win "Every Single One" - actually I'll give you a grace category with the addition of efg% and say he can drop 1 of these 11 categories - with cherry picking the best numbers from each category over the two seasons.

[NBASupes]

14 minutes ago, AHF said:

So you've gone from him exceeding Every.  Single.  One. to not even having to win a majority of the categories?  You guaranteed he would beat every metric and that him doing this was "Easy money."

This is a massive moving target and loss of confidence in only like half an hour.

So now you want to cherry-pick each category from over two seasons and if he [math doesn't work on the win/loss conditions you described so I'm deleting this comment] loses nearly half of them you still win?

I think we're seeing your real level of confidence coming through.

The bet I'm offering is either:

(a) Cam needing to win a majority of the 11 categories (10 + efg%) during your choice of (1) his rookie season, (2) his sophmore year or (3) his combined rookie and sophmore seasons; or

(b) Cam needing to win "Every Single One" - actually I'll give you a grace category with the addition of efg% and say he can drop 1 of these 11 categories - with cherry picking the best numbers from each category over the two seasons.

Easy money was like, he will easily surpass this in his career. As a rookie, that's a great rookie year. He could surpass it but if this is the ideal, I am happy with it. That's better numbers than I project for Kevin this year 

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Easy money was like, he will easily surpass this in his career. As a rookie, that's a great rookie year. He could surpass it but if this is the ideal, I am happy with it. That's better numbers than I project for Kevin this year 

I'm less impressed with the boast of him exceeding a mediocre #18 pick over his career.  If Cam doesn't have a better career than Q-Rich the only word for him will be "bust."

So I'm taking this from your post that you don't think Cam will be as good as Q-Rich during his first two years with the Hawks as Q-Rich was during his season with the Suns?  That is fine.  I just remember you saying he would be our best player very quickly in his career, not that he would be about as good his first couple seasons as someone whose career path was 'mediocre role player'.

I probably should have spelled out I was looking for an early career comparison of Cam with Phoenix Q-Rich.

[Spud2nique]

Sorry don’t mind to butt in here but I always do anyways...  

Didn’t Q get a lot empty stats due to usage rate? I mean, we have a much more statistically balanced roster, no? I remember Lamar, Q and Elton and to me, Elton was the only one putting up team success type of numbers. Damn I don’t want Cam being anything like Q...this debate is actually making me feel a little sad whether you two make the bet or not. 

I mean, I want Cam to be a star ️ but preferably one that helps us get to our ultimate goal of a title. I could have told you the early 2000’s that those Clippers weren’t going anywhere. Their ceiling was the 2nd round at best with the makeup of their roster. Honestly, the way ours is shaping up, ours looks like the finals, I know it’s premature but you can’t stop desire, a team mindset and hard work. I take that back, injuries are the only thing that I can see derailing us going forward. Right now, all I see in front of us is the Bucks and Sixers...for now.

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Sorry don’t mind to butt in here but I always do anyways...  

Didn’t Q get a lot empty stats due to usage rate? I mean, we have a much more statistically balanced roster, no? I remember Lamar, Q and Elton and to me, Elton was the only one putting up team success type of numbers. Damn I don’t want Cam being anything like Q...this debate is actually making me feel a little sad whether you two make the bet or not. 

I mean, I want Cam to be a star ️ but preferably one that helps us get to our ultimate goal of a title. I could have told you the early 2000’s that those Clippers weren’t going anywhere. Their ceiling was the 2nd round at best with the makeup of their roster. Honestly, the way ours is shaping up, ours looks like the finals, I know it’s premature but you can’t stop desire, a team mindset and hard work. I take that back, injuries are the only thing that I can see derailing us going forward. Right now, all I see in front of us is the Bucks and Sixers...for now.

I was curious about Supes projections for both raw numbers and the rate independent stats after he scoffed at Q-Rich's name being mentioned.  That is why they are a bunch of rate independent stats in that mix which don't reward base numbers.

That said, Q-Rich had the 11th lowest usage rate on the Phoenix roster during that season so it wasn't one where he did a lot of bolstering his numbers by dominating the ball.  That makes sense when you consider the other starters were Nash, JJ, Amare and Marion.  Q-Rich had his highest usage seasons when he was with the Clippers.

The only 3 stats of the 11 we are talking about that get boosted artificially by ball hogging are PER, points and assists per game.  3pt%, rpg, spg, WS, WS/48, BPM, and VORP do not.

[NBASupes]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm less impressed with the boast of him exceeding a mediocre #18 pick over his career.  If Cam doesn't have a better career than Q-Rich the only word for him will be "bust."

So I'm taking this from your post that you don't think Cam will be as good as Q-Rich during his first two years with the Hawks as Q-Rich was during his season with the Suns?  That is fine.  I just remember you saying he would be our best player very quickly in his career, not that he would be about as good his first couple seasons as someone whose career path was 'mediocre role player'.

I probably should have spelled out I was looking for an early career comparison of Cam with Phoenix Q-Rich.

Cam is going to be excellent and impactful from the jump. But I don't know if those metrics will show that. 

 

If Cam shoots 34.6% shooting 9 3s per game. His impact is tremendously more bigger on the offensive end than anything Q did. No matter what his obpm even says. 

Zo Ball had a better defensive year on tape as a rookie than any season of Q and his vorp is 1.7. Just saying, these stats are ass at the end of the day

[NBASupes]

Cams game on offense is

Volume 3s

Space offense

Isolation in space 

Off ball actions like Jodie Meeks 

Creation on ball, for him and others but as a secondary ball handler. 

transition buckets

Getting rebounds and going coast to coast.

 

That's pretty much it. That's not the most efficient game. He don't have Qs post game. He don't have Qs love to bang. He will take 70-80% jumpshots in the NBA. It's a fact. Cam will never have an all around game and guess what. He will still dominate on offense for this era.

This type of game will work a ton in volume but without great volume, I don't know if that will generate the advantage numbers which love finishers. 

He is a high volume shot creator. If the Hawks give him that responsibility which Duke didn't, we could easily surpass all of Qs numbers outside of rebs in year 1.

Edited July 17, 2019 by NBASupes

[hazer]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

We are the first Atlanta Hawks!

 

 

 

You my burner account now?

[AHF]

15 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Cam is going to be excellent and impactful from the jump. But I don't know if those metrics will show that. 

 

If Cam shoots 34.6% shooting 9 3s per game. His impact is tremendously more bigger on the offensive end than anything Q did. No matter what his obpm even says. 

Zo Ball had a better defensive year on tape as a rookie than any season of Q and his vorp is 1.7. Just saying, these stats are ass at the end of the day

Why do you say that? 

Q-Rich shot a slightly above league average 35.8% over 8 attempts per game which constituted ~31% of the total 3's shot by the Suns that year.

If Cam shoots 34.6% over 75 games, he will be shooting roughly 1% below league average and only ~22% of the team's total 3's.

[NBASupes]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

Why do you say that? 

Q-Rich shot 35.8% over 8 attempts per game which constituted ~31% of the total 3's shot by the Suns that year.

If Cam shoots 34.6% over 75 games, he will be shooting below league average and only ~22% of the team's total 3's.

I didn't look it up, i just was giving a point of reference. I presumed Q took the usual 3-4 3s a game. 

 

That season is an outlier Q season like a mofo tho. That would be by far the best Hawk of the last two seasons

Edited July 17, 2019 by NBASupes

[AHF]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

I didn't look it up, i just was giving a point of reference. I presumed Q took the usual 3-4 3s a game. 

He took the most 3pt shots in the entire league that year.  Way more impactful than Cam shooting 34.6% on 9 shots.

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

He took the most 3pt shots in the entire league that year.  Way more impactful than Cam shooting 34.6% on 9 shots.

That's an outlier season. If Cam meets that as a rookie, he is our best player. That's better than all Hawks by a mile in the last two years. Add Cams defensive impact, that would be the best rookie season in the last 20 years.

If Cam meets this plus his defense, his VORP would be near 5. When is the last rookie to do that. That's some randy Moss rookie year shit. It's possible. Just letting you know how rare it is. That was Q best season by a county mile

Edited July 17, 2019 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

Tim Duncan was the last rookie to have a vorp over 5 at 6. Luka has had the highest since 2000 with 3.6. Just saying, AHF, you setting me up for an L

[NBASupes]

If Cam has a season as a rookie this good or better on offense with his defense. That would be the best rookie season since Tim Duncan.

[NBASupes]

That said @AHF, if Cam had this good of a rookie season plus his D, he would be the best young player in the NBA in over a decade. Just for perspective 

[NBASupes]

What's crazy is @AHF, i am foolish enough to think its possible. I think Cam could top this on offense and have a very positive defensive mark where a 5 vorp is not out of the question. That would break the league from an advanced metric guys who would say Cam is going to be the best player in the NBA and its not close. 

 

Interesting....

[NBASupes]

I am just shocked Q of all people got 8 3s a game off. That is insane for a standstill shooter. He doesn't have movement skills like that. He doesn't have a high or even a mid high variance in 3 point shots. He doesn't even shoot that well without space. 

 

Steve Nash should have won 10 MVP's for that season alone. Wtf!

[NBASupes]

If Cam has a season as good as that Q season with better defense. We are winning 60 games. Facts! 

 

That's insane. It takes a shit ton of skill and luck to get up 8s 3s a game. PG got up 10 and was 3rd in the MVP vote

[NBASupes]

Shit, I'll go as far as saying if Cam has that season with his level of defense, we winning it all. 

 

For perspective, I think Al Horford is the GOAT Atlanta Hawk, he never had a vorp over or at 5. 

Nique who most will say is only did it twice. Just for perspective. 

Edited July 17, 2019 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

Call me apeshit crazy, but @AHF, you got a damn deal. This is about to be the GOAT Atlanta Hawks season of all f***ing time