Zach Edey Conundrum - Could Edey be the next great Atlanta Hawk or is he the next Cam Reddish

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

That was Jalen Williams. Obi was my last miss though. 

If it matters any, you gave me props for Obi that he was better than you thought even though I said you were right, I missed on him early in the process. Obi size was tremendous for Dayton as a PF but in the NBA, he's a tweener and there was nothing he could do to change it. Still, he's a very good player just one without a position. 

Eh, I don't remember this.  I've never been impressed with Toppin on any level.  As you said, he's a man without a position.  Plus has a questionable attitude.

It's funny whenever him and JJ go at it considering they trained together a couple summers ago.  You can tell they know each others games. 

[JayBirdHawk]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Obi size was tremendous for Dayton as a PF but in the NBA, he's a tweener and there was nothing he could do to change it. Still, he's a very good player just one without a position. 

I remember this...you dubbed him a 'Generational Offensive' player.

 

[NBASupes]

30 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Eh, I don't remember this.  I've never been impressed with Toppin on any level.  As you said, he's a man without a position.  Plus has a questionable attitude.

It's funny whenever him and JJ go at it considering they trained together a couple summers ago.  You can tell they know each others games. 

It was someone else. I actually created a scouting rule. The Obi Toppin rule. Meaning if you don't play P5 level which will be P4 next year or at Gonzaga which plays a lot of Quad 1 and 2 teams, I don't take your tape seriously until you play in the NBA combine games and dominate. Once you do that, that's when I take it seriously.

Because sometimes, you can look a lot bigger than you are just due to the competition. At Dayton, the comp didn't have PFs his size. He was looking like a better A'mare with BBIQ and everything. This shit would have gotten exposed if they had March Madness but that was the COVID year. 

I took that one on the cheek. He was my top prospect overall that year. 2. Ant 3. Ball 4. Deni 5. I think it was Hali then Okoro who I liked back then as well. That one was a bummer. 

He really forced me to change how seriously I take film and really use data a lot more. Even though he had high PPP in some areas. He was lacking in big man areas even at Dayton. Some of this could be foreseen just using something simple as tankathon. Rebounding is critical for a big. If you are in college and you aren't rebounding as a big, no excuses because the NBA, rebounds don't come easy unless you are a true center. Rebounds are hard to get. 

Obi had a lot to like, he had self-creation, he was a good PnR threat, could PnP, he could pass, he was tremendous in transition. He played and looked like the Atlantic Ten A'mare. He had the self-creation I wanted from JC so bad. As small as JC is at PF and looked even at Wake, Obi is clearly smaller than JC. I had to eliminate all film from non-P5 forever after Toppin. 

https://tankathon.com/players/obi-toppin

The worst misses were Bagley, Toppin, Bamba, Reddish because of the level of belief I put into it. 

Best hits: Mikal Bridges, Brandon Clarke, Jalen Williams, Podz, and Jaquez once he was taken by Miami. 

I don't like adding guys like A.J. and JJ because everyone was high on them, then again, so was everyone with the others outside of Reddish and Toppin. 

On 5/18/2021 at 1:13 PM, NBASupes said:

Wall was balling before Houston traded everyone and everybody and Westbrook was looking like it was the end. Post ASB Westbrook been a star and Wall been hurt. I'll take that. 

The draft isn't an exact science. I am grown, I can admit when I am wrong. Toppin and Bagley have been players I missed badly.

Outside of the last two years, after a rough 2020 and 2021 class, I changed up my scouting massively. For everything, little and big. When it came to bigs, I looked at everything. When it came to guards, I took size and production a lot more seriously. 2022 to 2023 was some great classes for me. I didn't miss much if at all. I even hit on the top guys. 2019 and 2020 was a major learning experience. 

Edited March 7 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

If there is anything to really say I learned from the past like this post below: 

  

On 5/17/2021 at 9:00 AM, NBASupes said:

I had a month to watch and catch up to the draft. Unusual for me since its year round. 

This year class is extremely strong at the top. It gets weak fast. Not quite as deep as last year or 2019. 

Last year, we had no tier 1 or 2 prospects. We had three tier 3.5 prospects in Toppin, Ball, and Edwards. Toppin is looking underwhelming at this point. Ball and Edwards blossom like a rose and improved like gang busters. Both had extremely high ceilings and both showed why they were top 3 picks.

 

At tier 4, Wiseman who was my #10 prospect and below Okongwu showed why Okongwu was rated higher than him at 6. Deni was my #4 rated prospect and #5 was Haliburton who has been the 3rd best rookie so far. 

This year, we have 5 tier 1.5 prospects joining Luka, Ayton, Bamba, and AD who were all tier 1.5 and Bagley and Zion were tier 1 for me. Zion living up to this ceiling, Bagley is obviously not. Those five are Cade, Suggs, Green, Kuminga, and Mobley. The reason they aren't tier 1 flat is because I am not certain they are sure fire superstars but they are closer than most. I was for sure with Bagley and Zion. 

As far as tier 2, its raw people fall into this category, you are talking about James Harden, Thabeet, Ty Lawson, Steph Curry. Guys who I felt were surefire all stars. There just aren't that many of them because guys on average come in way too raw as teams bet on potential. We just haven't seen a class in along time with guys on this level. Even Lillard, Conley, and Trae weren't tier 2 prospects for me. Tier 3 is most common. Borderline All Star types. 

This year, Şengün, Mitchell, Jalen.Johnson, Cooper, Giddley, Garuba, Wagner, Josh Christopher, and Marcus Bagley are tier 3.5. No tier 3 flat this year. It's rare we get those. Trae, Mikal, Sexton, SGA, Miles, and JJJ were the last 3 flats. 

Şengün has tremendous all around potential,  could be a top 10 pick. Mitchell, reminds me of Donovan and not just namesake as well. Not quite the scorer or shooter D. Mitchell was. Jalen Johnson, has the talent to be a tier 1.5 guy but his personality and fit has been bad everywhere he's been. 

Cooper has the passing/playmaking with his speed and quickness of an elite PG but his shooting and defense is horrendous. He's been compared to Trae, CP3, and Tony Parker. I compare him to Trae but a non shooting verison. Giddley, he's a blend of both Ball brothers without their higher end athletic ability. A stat. Garuba, he has so much potential, it's crazy. Wagner, Joe Ingles type of player with more playmaking. Josh Christopher, more of a potential play, probably likely to move down to tier 4 as is his teammate, Marcus Bagley. Barnes is last but really first on this list. I forgot about him. He's reminds me of a young Ron Artest. He going to have to grow into being a SF. He's not a natural like last year FSU wing, Patrick Williams. 

Tier 4 which was massive last year is smaller this year. With just 16 tier 4 guys at this early stage which could get smaller or larger, this could be a disappointing 2nd round class compared to last year. A lot of draftable players this year, as many as last year. 

1. Understanding Upperclassmen: Comprehensive knowledge about upperclassmen is crucial, including their passion for the game, injury history, and athletic performance. They come with a set skill set, unlike younger players who have more room for development. This is why teams like Miami and OKC often succeed with older players - they understand them thoroughly.

   For underclassmen, projection is key as they have a long way to go. Players aged 21 and above are already developed. Scouting should be exhaustive, covering every game and even practice. International competitions should also be considered. The margin with upperclassmen is small, but the return can be quick and substantial, as seen with Memphis’s Bane and Miami’s Jaquez. Scouting should be as thorough as in the NFL. This is one of the issues with the NBA, scouting isn't as thorough as it should be.

2. The Era of BBIQ: In this era, mental strengths like Basketball IQ (BBIQ), awareness, and feel for the game are vital. If a player lacks these, it’s better to pass. For instance, Jalen Duren may lack BBIQ and awareness, but his feel for the game has led to his success. On the other hand, Bagley, who lacks these traits, is struggling. Many draft misses between 2017 and 2020 can be attributed to overlooking BBIQ.

3. Work Ethic: Players must have a strong desire and work ethic. With the NBA’s competitiveness in 2024, those who don’t work hard won’t make it.

4. Mental Health: The importance of mental health has never been greater, and neglecting it has likely led to many busts.

5. Development Situations: Many young players fail not due to their fault, but because they end up in poor development situations with indifferent coaches.

6. Non-linear Progression: Player progression is not always linear. That's hard to accept but it's not. That's why drafting is a crapshoot even when you are right.

7. Drafting Strategy: Draft based on fit with the team personnel, not the coach’s scheme. Coaches can adjust, but forcing a fit can be detrimental. Coaches have to understand, you can control if you try to fit a round hole into a square peg but you can't fix a bad fit like Grant Williams to Dallas. Personalities matter and playing style compatibility matters. 

8. Perfection is a Myth: No prospect is perfect. Each player needs to be developed and placed in situations that suit their abilities and skills as a player.

9. Value of Production: Production is significant and doesn’t happen without reason. Even players considered misses often produce in the NBA.

10. Risk-taking: Don’t fear taking risks. It’s the only way to grow and refine your strategies and processes.

 

 

[NBASupes]

As far as underclassmen, I want to look for their personality traits, I want to know how they handle adversity in HS or college. Work ethic, how good of a teammate are they, are they immature and do you think they want to become more mature, etc. Underclassmen are far away from the potential. So you can't watch everything and think you know everything. 

This is Anthony Edwards tankathon chart

https://www.tankathon.com/players/anthony-edwards

Of course, he was ass at first

But of course, we are talking about what's truly supposed to be a college freshman. 

Of course, 

Then you draft a good player in college who produced every previous stage 

https://tankathon.com/players/marvin-bagley

Look and see, he never got better. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/baglema01.html

So underclassmen are hard to draft and you shouldn't draft them on production only or upside only like Cam Reddish. 

You have to find a happy medium and like the player's prototype and think you can develop this prospect into something special in time. 

With upperclassmen, you just got to know your prospects

https://tankathon.com/past_drafts/2009

2009 

Upperclassmen 

https://tankathon.com/players/hasheem-thabeet - Compared to Mutombo but said to have no work ethic by Gasol and Z-Bo but everyone said he was talented in that org

https://tankathon.com/players/stephen-curry - Dominate college player but said to be an undersized SG and not ready to play PG. Marc Jackson spent years trying to make him a PG with some success. Then Kerr comes in and uses him as an undersized SG who has Draymond to create as the hub and this team shoots to the sky and he's now an ATG and a top 15 player ever. 

https://tankathon.com/players/jordan-hill - He wasn't even good in college. This is just terrible scouting. This is shit you do with 18-19 year olds. 

https://tankathon.com/players/terrence-williams - Anyone who knew Terrance knew he could play but his personality and fit was horrendous. It's one thing to have this like JJ as a teenager but it's another thing as an grown-ass man. That's not a good sign. 

https://tankathon.com/players/gerald-henderson - I loved Henderson as a prospect but even I saw then, he only showed flashes. That's fine at 18-19, when you are a junior or senior, you need a stable role that you play. 

https://tankathon.com/players/tyler-hansbrough - Hansbrough was productive in college but he has just as many weaknesses. He wasn't an NBA player. Just not good enough. 

https://tankathon.com/players/earl-clark - This era was the beginning. Don't draft terrible shooters who aren't centers, even if they are talented like Clark. 

https://tankathon.com/players/ty-lawson - Ty literally lived up to expectations and at one time was seen more favorably than Curry but he became a drunk. 

https://tankathon.com/players/eric-maynor - This is bad scouting. You must do your homework on UPPERCLASSMEN. 

https://tankathon.com/players/darren-collison - This is what Darren was expected to be. Good scouting. 

https://tankathon.com/players/demarre-carroll - It's no shock, DMC was a very good basketball player in college. Shooting was questionable but his 3pt shot gave you some hope. 

https://tankathon.com/players/toney-douglas - Toney was what he was. Good scouting

https://tankathon.com/players/danny-green - No surprise again, Danny Green was good in college. He just needed to figure out what his next steps were. 

https://tankathon.com/players/patty-mills - Good scouting by the Spurs. Patty needed a lot of development and they did just that but he had the ability. 

When you are scouting upperclassmen, do all of your homework. The production doesn't lie but you must figure out what are they. Not, what do you project but what are they? They are not underclassmen. They are fairly well developed. 

 

Edited March 7 by NBASupes

[Sothron]

I've been a fan of Edey and watching him beat Mrs. Sothron's school was, um, interesting. She hates all of the Fighting Illini rivals so it was complicated to watch that game, cheer for the Illini and yet still really dig how great Edey is.

 

[shakes]

6 hours ago, Sothron said:

I've been a fan of Edey and watching him beat Mrs. Sothron's school was, um, interesting. She hates all of the Fighting Illini rivals so it was complicated to watch that game, cheer for the Illini and yet still really dig how great Edey is.

 

 

I have spent my entire life hating Illinois with immense passion.    Mom went there and dad went to DePaul.  You can guess who had more influence over me as a sports fan.

[bird_dirt]

6 hours ago, Sothron said:

I've been a fan of Edey and watching him beat Mrs. Sothron's school was, um, interesting. She hates all of the Fighting Illini rivals so it was complicated to watch that game, cheer for the Illini and yet still really dig how great Edey is.

 

 

8 minutes ago, shakes said:

 

I have spent my entire life hating Illinois with immense passion.    Mom went there and dad went to DePaul.  You can guess who had more influence over me as a sports fan.

I have nothing against Illinois, per se, but when I think of that school’s bball team, I think of Lon Kruger and a little bit of disgust washes over me. 

[NBASupes]

10 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I remember this...you dubbed him a 'Generational Offensive' player.

 

Hell yeah, for a 4, this his skill-set was like A'mare with high BBIQ and a good feel too. He could do a lot of actions but this is meaningless for a 4 in the NBA as actions are best for centers in the NBA unless they are both like AD. Sadly, he was 6'9 220 with a slender frame whereas Amare was 6'10 250 with a broad frame. A'mare could do both in NBA. Obi obviously couldn't even do the 4 because he just lacked too much bulk. 

His supreme offensive skill-set just didn't translate for his lack of size. That happens all the time. That's why measurements and tools matter. That's you have to do your homework extremely well. I didn't do a good job on Toppin. I did a very poor job on him because I was too much for the eye test. 👁  Not enough data or really studying his physical traits. 

 

 

[Afro]

10 hours ago, kg01 said:

Really, hotSupes?  You went through all them names and couldn't invite me to the party?

Ok well I guess I gotta drop a turd in the punch bowl.

You know the last college player you were this high on as a sure thing?

Toppin, Obi.

Inexact science, hotSupes.

Trade the pick(s).

I kid, I kid.  We been agreeing too much lately. 

The last time I remember a big man getting this much push on here, was.... Mo Bamba. 

Gross lol. 

[NBASupes]

15 minutes ago, Afro said:

The last time I remember a big man getting this much push on here, was.... Mo Bamba. 

Gross lol. 

It was actually Zion. Remember, he was heavily pushed on here. 

We haven't been in position to get a legit big since honestly. Zion even wanted to come to Atlanta too. We tried to move up for Sengun but couldn't 

Edited March 7 by NBASupes

[KB21]

The bigs in this draft that fit the modern NBA:

• Alex Sarr
• Yves Missi
• Ahmad Bradshaw (if he declares)
• Daron Holmes
• Kel'el Ware
• Oso Ighodaro

 

Edited March 7 by KB21

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The bigs in this draft that fit the modern NBA:

• Alex Sarr
• Yves Missi
• Ahmad Bradshaw (if he declares)
• Daron Holmes
• Kel'el Ware
• Oso Ighodaro

 

Sarr isn't a center though. He's a 4 and could even be a jumbo 3 like bigger Jaden McDaniels. 

Missi for sure but he's raw

Bradshaw is extremely raw

Holmes, I haven't watched him and probably won't till the NBA combine. Obi still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. If your not in a P5 or Gonzaga. I am not watching you like that till the NBA combine. I'll track your stats and data but I am not wasting energy scouting them. 

Ware for sure but he has Bamba scares with the motor and effort issues.

Oso is unique. I wouldn't say he's not a fit but his prototype is extremely different. He's a 4 but is an offensive hub. Where he lands is vital to his career. 

[Mikey]

14 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The bigs in this draft that fit the modern NBA:

• Alex Sarr
• Yves Missi
• Ahmad Bradshaw (if he declares)
• Daron Holmes
• Kel'el Ware
• Oso Ighodaro

 

Sarr is a 4 more than a 5 which is perfect for us if we somehow won the lottery. Clingan is the other big that fits and he might even get better if they remove defensive 3 in the summer. Bradshaw and Oso shouldn't even be considered with where their pick will fall.

Missi is the guy the hawks should get to replace clint in the summer with the kings pick if it conveys

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Sarr isn't a center though. He's a 4 and could even be a jumbo 3 like bigger Jaden McDaniels. 

Missi for sure but he's raw

Bradshaw is extremely raw

Holmes, I haven't watched him and probably won't till the NBA combine. Obi still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. If your not in a P5 or Gonzaga. I am not watching you like that till the NBA combine. I'll track your stats and data but I am not wasting energy scouting them. 

Ware for sure but he has Bamba scares with the motor and effort issues.

Oso is unique. I wouldn't say he's not a fit but his prototype is extremely different. He's a 4 but is an offensive hub. Where he lands is vital to his career. 

I'm the limited time I've spent on Sarr, I see a guy who is an offensive five with his rim running, roll man, and pick and pop capabilities and a guy who can defensively guard 3-5 in the NBA potentially.  

Missi is a young Capela.  Not the slow moving one that has no more lift in his legs that we see today.  

I'm very interested in Bradshaw.  Rim runner, good passer, can shoot some, potential as a 4-5 defender.  

Holmes and Ware both have potential as 4-5 defenders.  Both can shoot three point shots very well.  

Oso is unique.  I agree.  Small ball 5, IMO.  Good passer.  Not the rim protector the others are, but good defensive potential nonetheless.  

[NBASupes]

8 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I'm the limited time I've spent on Sarr, I see a guy who is an offensive five with his rim running, roll man, and pick and pop capabilities and a guy who can defensively guard 3-5 in the NBA potentially.  

Missi is a young Capela.  Not the slow moving one that has no more lift in his legs that we see today.  

I'm very interested in Bradshaw.  Rim runner, good passer, can shoot some, potential as a 4-5 defender.  

Holmes and Ware both have potential as 4-5 defenders.  Both can shoot three point shots very well.  

Oso is unique.  I agree.  Small ball 5, IMO.  Good passer.  Not the rim protector the others are, but good defensive potential nonetheless.  

Sarr -

His screens are bad.

He can rim run but that's common with most bigs today. 

He can shoot and self create for someone his size. PnP is one of the things he can do although his screens aren't much to write about. 

I think he can guard 2s too. Sarr might be a 3 long term. His frame is slender too. He might not gain that much weight. 

Sarr is like Gueye to me. Just much bigger at this stage but similar frame. Gueye got a late start physically due to his late start moving to America and playing Basketball. Gueye actually has better fundamentals. 

He's different. He got more self creation than Clint right now. More fluid as well but Clint as a prospect was a way better rebounder and passer. Missi has tunnel vision. Capela is more patient as a prospect. I don't believe Missi mental acuity is as strong as Clint as a prospect. Both got nice frames. Missi should be a good center once he physically makes his gains. Definitely a good modern fit. 

The idea of Bradshaw is nice. He just got aways to go. 

I can't speak on Holmes but yep with Ware. He's has a nice prototype. I worry about the physical frame and him only being 225 even as a Soph. 

Oso can switch, high BBIQ, and really has a tremendous feel for the game. Jamal put me on Oso and he's legit. 

 

[kg01]

1 hour ago, Afro said:

The last time I remember a big man getting this much push on here, was.... Mo Bamba. 

Gross lol. 

Heh, I know one poster here that wanted bamba over Trae in that draft.

I'll never tell who it was.  I'll take that secret to my grave.  Literally.  

[Afro]

20 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Heh, I know one poster here that wanted bamba over Trae in that draft.

I'll never tell who it was.  I'll take that secret to my grave.  Literally.  

Take solace in the fact that you weren't alone lol. Err...I mean that one poster wasnt alone. 

That was a wild time on the interwebs/twitter. 

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, Afro said:

Take solace in the fact that you weren't alone lol. Err...I mean that one poster wasnt alone. 

That was a wild time on the interwebs/twitter. 

The idea of Bamba was nasty tho. An unicorn. 7ft, 7'7+ wingspan, fluid af, can shoot, can block shots, like Bagley, he was a good player and only a freshman. Mentally, he was so ass. So ass. He has no ability to help in terms of impact. 

Then again, we should have been a tad worried. 

https://tankathon.com/players/mohamed-bamba

Bad paint protector, motor and effort questions, tunnel vision. He barely got better. He's essentially came in as good as Bruno and still is as good as Bruno. That's not good. 

With freshman, production ain't as valuable. Some kids can simply be good players off their physical gifts alone. They aren't actually good at Basketball but good at being them. Underclassmen are hard to evaluate and will always be hard. 

Edited March 7 by NBASupes

[Afro]

6 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

The idea of Bamba was nasty tho. An unicorn. 7ft, 7'7+ wingspan, fluid af, can shoot, can block shots, like Bagley, he was a good player and only a freshman. Mentally, he was so ass. So ass. He has no ability to help in terms of impact. 

Then again, we should have been a tad worried. 

https://tankathon.com/players/mohamed-bamba

Bad paint protector, motor and effort questions, tunnel vision. He barely got better. He's essentially came in as good as Bruno and still is as good as Bruno. That's not good. 

With freshman, production ain't as valuable. Some kids can simply be good players off their physical gifts alone. They aren't actually good at Basketball but good at being them. Underclassmen are hard to evaluate and will always be hard. 

Yeah definitely those last two parts. I don't mean to bash Bamba, but he's the poster child for a lot of this to me. What you're saying also seems to be 100x worse when its a 7+ footer. You see Bamba or Bol Bol do something wild once in a blue moon and people expect it to be "real" when prospects like those two never showed any inkling that it'd ever become consistent. 

The hit rates on these "theyre so freaky!" big men is so damn small(I'm not talking about Edey here). And the ones that hit, were at least somewhat consistent with their "freakiness" in their time before the NBA. Guys like Embiid, Jokic, AD, Bam. JJJs advanced stats(on court impact) in college blew guys like Bamba away(I remember having those debates here lol). Too many people put expectations on big men that they will get to the NBA and be wildly different than they've been before, and meh. 

I'm not trying to say big men can't be developed. I just mean the ones that get hyped up off of a 3 minute highlight clip that is 1% of their playing time and the other 99% is ass.