Zach Edey Conundrum - Could Edey be the next great Atlanta Hawk or is he the next Cam Reddish

[NBASupes]

16 minutes ago, Afro said:

Yeah definitely those last two parts. I don't mean to bash Bamba, but he's the poster child for a lot of this to me. What you're saying also seems to be 100x worse when its a 7+ footer. You see Bamba or Bol Bol do something wild once in a blue moon and people expect it to be "real" when prospects like those two never showed any inkling that it'd ever become consistent. 

The hit rates on these "theyre so freaky!" big men is so damn small(I'm not talking about Edey here). And the ones that hit, were at least somewhat consistent with their "freakiness" in their time before the NBA. Guys like Embiid, Jokic, AD, Bam. JJJs advanced stats(on court impact) in college blew guys like Bamba away(I remember having those debates here lol). Too many people put expectations on big men that they will get to the NBA and be wildly different than they've been before, and meh. 

I'm not trying to say big men can't be developed. I just mean the ones that get hyped up off of a 3 minute highlight clip that is 1% of their playing time and the other 99% is ass. 

Jokic came out too early and Denver just got lucky 

https://tankathon.com/players/joel-embiid

Embiid wasn't special as a player  during his freshman year (supremely special as a talent) but his lack of flaws stands out for someone only 3 years into playing Basketball and a true freshman at that. 

Okafor was a better player but not by much and Jah was polished. Embiid was raw. 

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=joel-embiid--jahlil-okafor

That said, Embiid has a tremendous mind set. Because he could have given up when he was basically out for two years. But he didn't. Mentality means so damn much. 

Edited March 7 by NBASupes

[AHF]

Projection is an art rather than a science, and big men are especially tough to project.  Here are a few taken around the 5th pick in the draft in the same era:

Cousins looked like he should just beast and end up on some real winning teams.  The Kings stank, but at least he did dominate in many of the same ways he did in college.

DeMarcus Cousins 2010 Draft Profile | Tankathon

Noel looked like he could be a defensive anchor for a team but only amounted to a role player.

Nerlens Noel 2013 Draft Profile | Tankathon

Thabeet looked like he should be a defensive anchor and wasn't even a role player.

Hasheem Thabeet 2009 Draft Profile | Tankathon

Unless you have a Delorian, you are going to miss on players if you try to scout high school and college kids for the NBA.  It just comes with the job.

[NBASupes]

25 minutes ago, Afro said:

Yeah definitely those last two parts. I don't mean to bash Bamba, but he's the poster child for a lot of this to me. What you're saying also seems to be 100x worse when its a 7+ footer. You see Bamba or Bol Bol do something wild once in a blue moon and people expect it to be "real" when prospects like those two never showed any inkling that it'd ever become consistent. 

The hit rates on these "theyre so freaky!" big men is so damn small(I'm not talking about Edey here). And the ones that hit, were at least somewhat consistent with their "freakiness" in their time before the NBA. Guys like Embiid, Jokic, AD, Bam. JJJs advanced stats(on court impact) in college blew guys like Bamba away(I remember having those debates here lol). Too many people put expectations on big men that they will get to the NBA and be wildly different than they've been before, and meh. 

I'm not trying to say big men can't be developed. I just mean the ones that get hyped up off of a 3 minute highlight clip that is 1% of their playing time and the other 99% is ass. 

I am in meetings so its hard for me to pay this the attention it deserves but with bigs, it's difficult because you really need to be an upperclassmen or at least a sophomore to really have success. The ones who wasn't like Embiid and Chet seem to have injuries that gave them a year to recoup and gain strength and awareness. A training year to learn how to be a pro. 

It's hard to find many freshman bigs to have success. Especially 5s. That's why you see an abundance of centers are internationals or internationals who played in the NCAA and stayed for a couple seasons or more. 

The NBA is just too hard at that position. It requires you to have a man's body. Requires a lot of actions and that's not easy to do.

The actions is what drives a lot of 5s today crazy. They wished it was the 2000s and early 2010s all over again. Thank Al Horford. King of actions for that. 

[KB21]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

The idea of Bamba was nasty tho. An unicorn. 7ft, 7'7+ wingspan, fluid af, can shoot, can block shots, like Bagley, he was a good player and only a freshman. Mentally, he was so ass. So ass. He has no ability to help in terms of impact. 

Then again, we should have been a tad worried. 

https://tankathon.com/players/mohamed-bamba

Bad paint protector, motor and effort questions, tunnel vision. He barely got better. He's essentially came in as good as Bruno and still is as good as Bruno. That's not good. 

With freshman, production ain't as valuable. Some kids can simply be good players off their physical gifts alone. They aren't actually good at Basketball but good at being them. Underclassmen are hard to evaluate and will always be hard. 

Well, one of us on this board knew that Bamba/Bagley had high high bust potential and that Jaren Jackson Jr was the better prospect.

[KB21]

Embiid's advanced metrics, even as a raw freshman, were off the charts.  He was my #1 prospect in that draft.  

[KB21]

What's funny to me is that we have so many who are desperately trying to find the next 7-foot plus unicorn when I'm just wanting to find another Al Horford.  

[NBASupes]

14 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Embiid's advanced metrics, even as a raw freshman, were off the charts.  He was my #1 prospect in that draft.  

He was everyone #1 pick. The injury concern was that you would have to wait a year but he was clearly the best choice. Turns out, Philly waited two years. 

Parker or Wiggins didn't play good at in college. They were getting by off their HS hype. 

[NBASupes]

13 minutes ago, KB21 said:

What's funny to me is that we have so many who are desperately trying to find the next 7-foot plus unicorn when I'm just wanting to find another Al Horford.  

Thats a massive unicorn as well. You are talking the face of the modern NBA center. 

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/26/steve-kerr-praises-al-horford-as-perfect-modern-day-center/

Edey might be the closest I've seen to Horford as he's an elite Helper and he ain't close to Horford at all. 

Al is an once in a generation monster. Rare Basketball player. Makes everyone better on both ends. Can do everything and always looks to make the best play or winning play on either end. Is he a generational athlete? No. Does he have elite skill or talent? Not even close. But he had elite mental acuity, tremendous at so many little things, he just excel at possession by possession basketball. You know that's my Atlanta Hawks best ever. How I feel about Al, is next level. 

I'll be the first to say, while I loved the Al pick, I massively underrated him by a mile. He's way better than I thought he would be.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

What's funny to me is that we have so many who are desperately trying to find the next 7-foot plus unicorn when I'm just wanting to find another Al Horford.  

Finding the next Horford isn't easy.  Lots of 6'10'' big men but no one since who fully replicates what he brought to the table.  He was the final piece of that tear down and tank by BK.  You don't get the #3 pick to get him otherwise and getting someone like Banchero or Jabari Smith Jr. does not get you the same defense and versatility let alone guys more around where we will pick like Ousmane Dieng or Noah Clowney.

[bird_dirt]

6 hours ago, KB21 said:

The bigs in this draft that fit the modern NBA:

• Alex Sarr
• Yves Missi
• Ahmad Bradshaw (if he declares)
• Daron Holmes
• Kel'el Ware
• Oso Ighodaro

 

If we don’t walk away with one or two of these guys (and I’ll add Clingan, Edey, Flip, and Zvonimir Ivisic in the mix too), then I am going to go apeshit. 
Ideally a highly rated wing like Knecht with the first pick and a 7 footer with the Sac pick. 

[JayBirdHawk]

14 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

If we don’t walk away with one or two of these guys (and I’ll add Clingan, Edey, Flip, and Zvonimir Ivisic in the mix too), then I am going to go apeshit. 
Ideally a highly rated wing like Knecht with the first pick and a 7 footer with the Sac pick. 

So:

If we get to the playin and win and make the playoffs and once again end up with pick 15/16 AND the Kings don't make the playoffs, so we don't their pick.....who do you want with our ONE pick?

[NBASupes]

22 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

If we don’t walk away with one or two of these guys (and I’ll add Clingan, Edey, Flip, and Zvonimir Ivisic in the mix too), then I am going to go apeshit. 
Ideally a highly rated wing like Knecht with the first pick and a 7 footer with the Sac pick. 

I love Knecht but he's gonna fall. 23 year old guards ain't what the NBA is dying to take in the top 10 picks. That said, if someone falls in love, obviously but once teams get these guys in the building and they see how gifted the 19 year old is. It happens every single year. 

[bird_dirt]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

So:

If we get to the playin and win and make the playoffs and once again end up with pick 15/16 AND the Kings don't make the playoffs, so we don't their pick.....who do you want with our ONE pick?

One pick would need to be whatever their most highly rated 7 footer is that’s still on the board at their pick. 
Upgrading depth at the 5, getting more size at the 5, and developing more talent at the 5 for the future should be their first priority with this draft. 

They a have a lot of priorities they need to address, but I think this draft offers the best opportunity to address the C issues. More C depth this draft than usual. There are 10 guys listed, at 15/16, we’d still have our choice of 6 or 7 of them. 
We could even trade down for an additional pick or player and pick from 4 or 5 of them in the 20s or 30s. 

[bird_dirt]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

I love Knecht but he's gonna fall. 23 year old guards ain't what the NBA is dying to take in the top 10 picks. That said, if someone falls in love, obviously but once teams get these guys in the building and they see how gifted the 19 year old is. It happens every single year. 

Take a 5 high with our pick and Knecht with the Sac pick works too. 

[h4wkfan]

I don’t ever support drafting for Need. I’m always against that. That tends to lead to you reaching. I hope we go BPA regardless (trade it if it’s a PG). 
 

and as for this draft - the true 5s leave a lot to be desired imo. Not sure id take one in the top 25. 

[Mikey]

To separate from the Edey specific discussion made a draft specific thread. Not sure if there was an existing one already but we might want to split the two convos. This for Edey specific discourse other for all things draft

[thecampster]

So probably mentioned but let me say it if it hasn't.  The number 1 knock on Edey is he struggles to guard at the perimeter. In today's NBA of switching between bigs and guards at the 3 point line, this could make him a liability. If/when he comes in for a workout, I'd run switching drills till his ankles look like cantaloupes to see how he handles it.

[Sothron]

16 hours ago, thecampster said:

So probably mentioned but let me say it if it hasn't.  The number 1 knock on Edey is he struggles to guard at the perimeter. In today's NBA of switching between bigs and guards at the 3 point line, this could make him a liability. If/when he comes in for a workout, I'd run switching drills till his ankles look like cantaloupes to see how he handles it.

This is a valid concern. However, drop coverage is going to let him stay in the paint. 

[NBASupes]

21 hours ago, thecampster said:

So probably mentioned but let me say it if it hasn't.  The number 1 knock on Edey is he struggles to guard at the perimeter. In today's NBA of switching between bigs and guards at the 3 point line, this could make him a liability. If/when he comes in for a workout, I'd run switching drills till his ankles look like cantaloupes to see how he handles it.

Switching is more of the problem but on the perimeter, he's massively improved this year. Still struggles with the skilled stretch 5. Chet would give him issues and has before as they played each other in the world games. Chet is giving a lot of players hell in today's NBA. Edey moves his feet well, that's not his issue, it's his fluidity but as long as his arms are wide and he moves his feet, he tends to be better than most big man defenders

 A lot of scouts like his defense more than his offense. I like his offense a lot more than his defense by a mile. 

I'll post about five Edey posts today. Some good stuff I saw throughout the week. 

Edited March 9 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

Post #1

Interesting article: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nba/zach-edeys-nba-future-why-is-his-draft-stock-surging-and-will-his-game-translate

Teams and scouts are all over the place with Edey - Ric Bucher