Zach Edey Conundrum - Could Edey be the next great Atlanta Hawk or is he the next Cam Reddish

[thecampster]

16 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I still believe this .

I can't believe this is 31 unnecessary pages and counting.

Here's what should give you pause on Edey.  @Sothron and I agree on player evals about 50% of the time but we agree here. @NBASupes and I agree on player evals about 10% of the time. We fight openly much more than we agree, but we agree here.  We are 3 diverse opinions on players and their future value.

During the Cam Reddish initial debate, Supes attacked me openly for just saying pump the brakes on Reddish. He has fixable mechanical problems in his shot and has decision making problems. I feel I was proven right in that fight. It was an open fight and all I said was "he's not all that today".  But we both agree that Edey should be the pick at 10.

Now Supes tends to make much more emotional arguments than I do and engages in keyboard fist-a-cuffs whereas I just check out and let others pound the keyboard.

My position on #10.  By the time we pick, anyone who will be an all-star in the future will most likely be off the board. By pick 10 its a crap shoot. The players picked after the first 5 become increasingly hard to discern if their basketball skills and work ethic will translate to the NBA. 2/3rds of the players picked in the NBA draft never see a second NBA contract (real stat). Most of the players chosen 1-10 get a second contract. This means about 80% of the players chosen after 10 will be out of the league in 4 years. Its a game of chance. One of those players this year will be 7-4, 300 lbs and is the back to back college basketball player of the year.  Given I've got an 80% chance of picking the wrong player, I believe picking a player with the above credentials is your best bet. I'm not even stating he'll score 15 ppg in the NBA or get a 2nd contract.  What I am saying is by pick 10 the pickings will be slim and the chance of failure high. Edey offers by far the best chance to get a second contract. 

I'm not even taking anyone seriously crapping on him right now. The guy has proven against 260lb college centers than he can get 30/20 in 30 minutes. The guy played with team Canada in FIBA and was respected by his peers at that level. Given his size and stats, that's plenty for me.

[KB21]

Is it going to be a surprise to you when he is consistently beaten in the pick and roll by much faster and far more athletic players in the NBA similar to the way Schifino took advantage of him in the P&R last season?

[KB21]

I just can’t get on board with drafting a guy whose ceiling in the NBA is a situational substitute with the 10th pick.  

[aali34]

If you wanna pick Edey you can, not at 10 though, that's an insane reach. He's gonna be there at 20

[NBASupes]

31 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Here's what should give you pause on Edey.  @Sothron and I agree on player evals about 50% of the time but we agree here. @NBASupes and I agree on player evals about 10% of the time. We fight openly much more than we agree, but we agree here.  We are 3 diverse opinions on players and their future value.

During the Cam Reddish initial debate, Supes attacked me openly for just saying pump the brakes on Reddish. He has fixable mechanical problems in his shot and has decision making problems. I feel I was proven right in that fight. It was an open fight and all I said was "he's not all that today".  But we both agree that Edey should be the pick at 10.

Now Supes tends to make much more emotional arguments than I do and engages in keyboard fist-a-cuffs whereas I just check out and let others pound the keyboard.

My position on #10.  By the time we pick, anyone who will be an all-star in the future will most likely be off the board. By pick 10 its a crap shoot. The players picked after the first 5 become increasingly hard to discern if their basketball skills and work ethic will translate to the NBA. 2/3rds of the players picked in the NBA draft never see a second NBA contract (real stat). Most of the players chosen 1-10 get a second contract. This means about 80% of the players chosen after 10 will be out of the league in 4 years. Its a game of chance. One of those players this year will be 7-4, 300 lbs and is the back to back college basketball player of the year.  Given I've got an 80% chance of picking the wrong player, I believe picking a player with the above credentials is your best bet. I'm not even stating he'll score 15 ppg in the NBA or get a 2nd contract.  What I am saying is by pick 10 the pickings will be slim and the chance of failure high. Edey offers by far the best chance to get a second contract. 

I'm not even taking anyone seriously crapping on him right now. The guy has proven against 260lb college centers than he can get 30/20 in 30 minutes. The guy played with team Canada in FIBA and was respected by his peers at that level. Given his size and stats, that's plenty for me.

10%? Those numbers are extreme. Especially when I don't recall us really talking about many draft prospects ever outside of 3 players and now Edey. Those type of numbers, that's just way too extreme and considering my hit rate in the last three years has been 95%, you must miss a lot or just haven't paid attention. Even that 50% with Sothron is extreme. That's crazy

If you are 10% on anything, it's about Trae. That's it. I can't even remember you posting in draft threads outside of 2020 when you and I had quarrels on James Wiseman.

I am not cool with that 10% statement. First time you said it, I just brushed it aside, now I just think it's flat out disingenuous and wrong even if that's your opinion. Are you saying you are wrong 90% of the time?  Lets chill with potential disrespect 

Edited March 28 by NBASupes

[KB21]

With Clingan, I get it.  You have a legitimate two way center even with his questions on whether he fits the modern game.  The upside is unquestionably higher.  He’s not my choice, but I’m not one that has this insatiable desire to get a 7-foot center.  I’m perfectly fine with committing to Okongwu long term.  
 

With Edey, I just don’t get it.  

[thecampster]

8 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

10%? Those numbers are extreme. Especially when I don't recall us really talking about many draft prospects ever outside of 3 players and now Edey. Those type of numbers, that's just way too extreme and considering my hit rate in the last three years has been 95%, you must miss a lot or just haven't paid attention. Even that 50% with Sothron is extreme. That's crazy

If you are 10% on anything, it's about Trae. That's it. I can't even remember you posting in draft threads outside of 2020 when you and I had quarrels on James Wiseman.

I am not cool with that 10% statement. First time you said it, I just brushed it aside, now I just think it's flat out disingenuous and wrong even if that's your opinion. Are you saying you are wrong 90% of the time?  Lets chill with potential disrespect 

I keep my comments short on prospects and don't engage in back and forth much.

[thecampster]

26 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Is it going to be a surprise to you when he is consistently beaten in the pick and roll by much faster and far more athletic players in the NBA similar to the way Schifino took advantage of him in the P&R last season?

He's going to get beat in the pick n' pop more than the pick n' roll. He naturally falls into drop coverage. He doesn't try to guard the switch out of the pick. He tries to protect the drive.  At the NBA level, that can still be pretty bad as players like Trae will kill you with lobs and floaters, Derozan will 2 pointer you to death but I think you're overthinking this. Constantly targeting him in the pick n roll game will greatly affect a team's offense over the course of a game. I'm not too worried about it for 48 minutes.

[Gray Mule]

It doesn't really matter.  Draft him @ 10 or the second 1st round pick or in the 2nd round.  He's who you get regardless of when he's drafted.  Problem is, if this is the player that you want and you pass on him, he may be gone when your next turn comes.

Where he's drafted has nothing to do with his talent.  Star or bust?  Do you really want this player?  If so, grab him at the 1st opportunity.  Who else would be more important to the Hawks that might still be there? 

So many questions and we can only guess at the answers because we ain't them, the Hawks brains!!

 

 

[NBASupes]

8 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I keep my comments short on prospects and don't engage in back and forth much.

We are literally talking

Bagley

JJJ

Luka 

Trae

Culver

Wiseman

Hayes

Reddish

Barrett

Ja 

Zion

Haliburton 

OO

Ant

Ball

Deni

And now Edey. 

Other than that, you haven't been even a visitor. 

Please use better terms bro. Instead of 10% of draft prospects, use 10% of the ones we debated. Because I've discussed 100s of prospects on here. 100s with only 3-5 regulars posting on it. No one really cares till draft season and some years we don't kick off draft discussion till May. 

Let's be more respectful is all I am asking for. Sothron has spoken about a lot of prospects, 50% is wild when most prospects, most of us tend to be on the same page. 

Edited March 28 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, Gray Mule said:

It doesn't really matter.  Draft him @ 10 or the second 1st round pick or in the 2nd round.  He's who you get regardless of when he's drafted.  Problem is, if this is the player that you want and you pass on him, he may be gone when your next turn comes.

Where he's drafted has nothing to do with his talent.  Star or bust?  Do you really want this player?  If so, grab him at the 1st opportunity.  Who else would be more important to the Hawks that might still be there? 

So many questions and we can only guess at the answers because we ain't them, the Hawks brains!!

 

 

Exactly. We need him a lot more than we can afford to lose him. If Clingan gone, we must land him 

[NBASupes]

@thecampster, me and KB are at each other necks when we don't see eye to eye but we talking about a lot of prospects and tend to be on the same page 95% of the time which is normal. It's when we disagree is when we debate and if both feel passionate about, we argue. That's me and KB21. Even then, I wouldn't say something wild like we never agree about it. We talk prospects all of the time and KB is a regular. 

When you say 10% of the time. That means we don't agree on no prospects ever. That's insane bro. That's not even feasible bro

Edited March 28 by NBASupes

[REHawksFan]

56 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Here's what should give you pause on Edey.  @Sothron and I agree on player evals about 50% of the time but we agree here. @NBASupes and I agree on player evals about 10% of the time. We fight openly much more than we agree, but we agree here.  We are 3 diverse opinions on players and their future value.

During the Cam Reddish initial debate, Supes attacked me openly for just saying pump the brakes on Reddish. He has fixable mechanical problems in his shot and has decision making problems. I feel I was proven right in that fight. It was an open fight and all I said was "he's not all that today".  But we both agree that Edey should be the pick at 10.

Now Supes tends to make much more emotional arguments than I do and engages in keyboard fist-a-cuffs whereas I just check out and let others pound the keyboard.

My position on #10.  By the time we pick, anyone who will be an all-star in the future will most likely be off the board. By pick 10 its a crap shoot. The players picked after the first 5 become increasingly hard to discern if their basketball skills and work ethic will translate to the NBA. 2/3rds of the players picked in the NBA draft never see a second NBA contract (real stat). Most of the players chosen 1-10 get a second contract. This means about 80% of the players chosen after 10 will be out of the league in 4 years. Its a game of chance. One of those players this year will be 7-4, 300 lbs and is the back to back college basketball player of the year.  Given I've got an 80% chance of picking the wrong player, I believe picking a player with the above credentials is your best bet. I'm not even stating he'll score 15 ppg in the NBA or get a 2nd contract.  What I am saying is by pick 10 the pickings will be slim and the chance of failure high. Edey offers by far the best chance to get a second contract. 

I'm not even taking anyone seriously crapping on him right now. The guy has proven against 260lb college centers than he can get 30/20 in 30 minutes. The guy played with team Canada in FIBA and was respected by his peers at that level. Given his size and stats, that's plenty for me.

So you are saying that Edey is the bullseye at the center of the Soth/Supes/Camp vin diagram?  I'm willing to buy that lotto ticket.  It's not like the Hawks have some long record of success in the draft that they need to protect.  

[thecampster]

17 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

@thecampster, me and KB are at each other necks when we don't see eye to eye but we talking about a lot of prospects and tend to be on the same page 95% of the time which is normal. It's when we disagree is when we debate and if both feel passionate about, we argue. That's me and KB21. Even then, I wouldn't say something wild like we never agree about it. We talk prospects all of the time and KB is a regular. 

When you say 10% of the time. That means we don't agree on no prospects ever. That's insane bro. That's not even feasible bro

On "who to take" we usually disagree.

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

So you are saying that Edey is the bullseye at the center of the Soth/Supes/Camp vin diagram?  I'm willing to buy that lotto ticket.  It's not like the Hawks have some long record of success in the draft that they need to protect.  

I'm saying at 10, there really aren't any needle movers or potential needle movers.  Edey is a potential needle mover.

Also, none of our current centers are a top 15 big in the league. Clint gives great effort but he's really limited and his offensive limitations are a real problem. OO's size is a real problem.  Bruno has played well recently but as a starter against the best bigs in the league he struggles.  Edey is the only center on the draft board that has the potential to be a real problem for other teams. The rest's potential is no better than Clint/OO.

OO was 16.2/8.6 in college and we took him at 6.  Edey's last 2 seasons he's averaging 23/12. 10 feels like a steal.

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, thecampster said:

On "who to take" we usually disagree.

That's much better. Now that makes sense.

[thecampster]

I challenge anyone in this conversation to tell me who they pick in this draft who could beat out Trae at PG, DJM at SG, DH at SF, JJ at PF at pick 10....I would venture no one.  I'm confident Edey can beat out OO or Clint if not year 1, year 2.  He's a senior. He doesn't need College Park.

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

That's much better. Now that makes sense.

Which was my point. Typically we disagree on who to take. 1/2 the time, Soth and I disagree on who to take.  We have all 3 saying, take Edey if he's available.  Given the norm, that's got to make people rethink that.

[KB21]

16 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I challenge anyone in this conversation to tell me who they pick in this draft who could beat out Trae at PG, DJM at SG, DH at SF, JJ at PF at pick 10....I would venture no one.  I'm confident Edey can beat out OO or Clint if not year 1, year 2.  He's a senior. He doesn't need College Park.

You would significantly limit the team offensively and defensively by replacing OO with Edey.  

[thecampster]

11 minutes ago, KB21 said:

You would significantly limit the team offensively and defensively by replacing OO with Edey.  

Okay now this is just silly. Edey is by far the better offensive player. In the NBA, where the 3 point line gives centers more room to operate, he becomes an even better post up threat. None, absolutely none of our current centers save Bruno can be counted on to get a bucket back to the basket. Its flip a coin in a post.
 

Edey is a better lob threat, a better offensive rebounder, better post up player and would immediately be our best screen setter. OO better than Edey offensively is ridiculous. I do not care if he's been hitting 3's at a 33% clip. That does not make him a better offensive player.