Draft Possibilities

[KB21]

It may seem like bad taste to start talking about draft possibilies after winning our 20th game of the season. Well, Atlanta's draft situation keeps dropping a bit, and I think they will ultimately settle around the 5-7 area. This is a good time, right before the NCAA tournament starts, to start talking about some of the draft prospects that may be available. We actually had a very good conversation on this topic going in the chat room tonight after the game with a lot of good insight from several people. I thought I'd post my thoughts, and see what some of you think as well.

First, I want to address who I think some of the teams that will be drafting ahead of Atlanta, ultimately, will take. Note that Atlanta is currently 1/2 game behind Toronto in the standings. Considering that Atlanta is 5-5 in their last 10 games while Toronto is 3-7 in their last 10 games, I think Atlanta will pass them up very soon. I don't know if Atlanta will eventually pass seattle, so we may be looking at the 6th pick. Anyway, here's what I think:

01. Charlotte Bobcats - Rudy Gay, SF, 6'9", 220 lbs, Connecticut

Right now, the Bobcats have the top pick in the draft based on their record. Their biggest need is really at the shooting guard position. The value isn't there though, but the Bobcats can still address the swingman position on the team. I think that Rudy Gay will be seen as the player with the most upside in this draft, and Charlotte may be very tempted to see if they can play Gay alongside Gerald Wallace. They could be tempted to take Adam Morrison here, but I don't know if many teams will look at him as a guard.

02. Chicago Bulls - LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, 6'11", 240 lbs, Texas

This should be the Knicks pick, but they foolishly traded it away to get Eddy Curry. The Bulls own this pick and are very happy to get it. They have a grave need for some inside help. They need some interior scoring and rebounding, and I think LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy they will target. Adam Morrison could get a look, but again, this is a team that he would have to be a guard on, and I'm not sure Morrison is anything but a forward.

03. Portland Trailblazers - Adam Morrison, SF, 6'8", 210 lbs, Gonzaga

This team has Sebastian Telfair and Jarrett Jack at the point guard position, a young Martell Webster at the shooting guard, Darius Miles and Travis Outlaw at small forward, Zach Randolph at power forward, and Joel Przybilla is a free agent at center. It would definitely appear on the surface that the Blazers need a center. If there were one worthy of this selection, they would probably take them. I think they are begging for someone to take Darius Miles and his contract off their hands, and Morrison is a Northwest US local that could give them the type of immediate impact they haven't been getting from their last few picks.

04. Orlando Magic - Rodney Carney, SG/SF, 6'7", 210 lbs, Memphis

I think the Magic are content to build around Dwight Howard, Darko Milicic, and Jameer Nelson. They will go into this draft looking to add some wing players. Rodney Carney is a fast rising player with tremendous athleticism and great range on his shot. He can play both positions and may ultimately be a shooting guard if he improves his ball handling ability.

05. Toronto Raptors - Ronnie Brewer, PG/SG, 6'7", 210 lbs, Arkansas

This team has the 6'11" Charlie Villaneuva that can play the three and the four, and they have the 6'11" Chris Bosh that can play the four and the five. They need talent around those two players. Point guard and shooting guard are two positions they may look to address, and the best player at this point may be Ronnie Brewer, who could possibly fill either position for the Raptors.

Now, we are to the Hawks. There may be some interesting players available to them. Looking at Chad Ford's ratings on ESPN, Tyrus Thomas is the name that jumps out. However, I don't think Tyrus is going to declare this year. He's currently out with an ankle injury and will miss the SEC tournament. I think he's going to opt to go back to LSU, where he can pretty much lock himself in as a top 3 pick next year.

The most interesting prospect here may be Andrea Bargnani, the 7-foot Italian prospect. I've never seen this guy play, other than a few highlights, but everything I've read about him says he is somewhat similar to Dirk Nowitski. I know some will be afraid to take a European 7-footer with the lack of success that Darko and Skita have shown in the NBA to date. However, there will be some that also see the potential to be a Dirk Nowitzki or a Pau Gasol. Bargnani is a very skilled 7-footer with great range on his shot and the ability to drive the basket. That's not exactly what Atlanta needs, but if he's anything like Dirk, how do you pass on him? I'm completely indifferent on this guy at this point though.

There will be another International 7-footer possibly in this draft though. Tiago Splitter is a different style of 7-footer than Andrea Bargnani. Splitter is more post oriented, more of a rebounder, and more of a shot blocker based on the reports. Again, this is a player that I have never seen play. According to the reports though, he's similar in many ways to Pau Gasol. Who drafted Pau Gasol in Memphis? That's right. Billy Knight. Gasol has gone on to average around 21 points and 10 rebounds a game over the last couple of years, playing both the power forward and center positions.

Shelden Williams is an interesting player who is currently ranked 8th on Chad's Big Board. He's 7th when you take Tyrus Thomas out of the equation. Shelden is only 6'9", 250 lbs, but he may be the closest thing to a Ben Wallace type in this draft as any player in recent memory. Shelden is a very good rebounder and an excellent shot blocker that has great timing on his blocks. His defensive instincts are incredible. The question about him is, will he be a Ben Wallace type center, or will he be just a defensive power forward. His more athletic than you will think, but I don't think he will ever be an offensive force in the NBA. If it were up to Mike Woodson, Shelden would probably be a Hawk next year.

Those are basically the big guys that the Hawks could be looking at, though none of them with the exception of possibly Tiago Splitter is a true center.

The next guy on Chad's Big Board at ESPN is Rajon Rondo. Rondo is a lightening quick point guard, which is a need position for the Hawks. He and Kentucky have been playing a lot better as of late, and I think Rajon is ready to bolt to the NBA. His one weakness is a glaring weakness. He can't shoot a lick. However, in the U21 USA team trials this summer, he outplayed every point guard that was there. He's a teriffic defender who can penetrate at will and has great court vision. Basically, he has everything you can want in a point guard other than shooting ability. It probably doesn't hurt that he and Josh Smith are former teammates at Oak Hill Academy and are great friends.

There are some other possibilities that could emerge during the tournaments, and I detailed some of them in a post yesterday. One of those is Randy Foye from Villanova.

This will be a very interesting decision for Billy.

[gsuteke]

perhapes Billy Knight is lucky. Childress is coming around, Josh Smith looks like a future All-Star, Zaza is proving himself to be underpaid, and JJ. oh JJ. up until 2 weeks ago i was still operating under the guise that Billy payed too much for JJ. JJ is proving me wrong as time goes on. then again maybe Billy has been lucky. let's hope for the former.

if that be the case i think Billy takes a chance on one of the big Euros. he almost has no choice at this point. Rondo would be a good addition to the team because the Hawks don't have a scoring problem thus his shooting wouldn't be a big deal. i just don't see the Hawks being able to pass on a 7 footer though to take him at this point.

bump Chris Paul. he's turned out to be a great player but if Billy would have taken him the Hawks wouldn't have more than 5 more wins at this point. the glaring need is a big man. if the scouting report is correct then i say Splitter. but once again there is the great unknown as i haven't seen him play either. let's hope Billy Knight has.

[joannes3000]

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if that be the case i think Billy takes a chance on one of the big Euros. he almost has no choice at this point. Rondo would be a good addition to the team because the Hawks don't have a scoring problem thus his shooting wouldn't be a big deal. i just don't see the Hawks being able to pass on a 7 footer though to take him at this point.

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I agree. If we get a mid lottery pick I'd actually hate for us to keep it and rather trade out completely for a PG that can run the offense or a C that can do the dirty work in the paint.

Other that that, I agree that the two Euros are the only reasonable picks in the 7-10 range. I couldn't personally justify drafting Rondo that high because of his lack of shooting. But then again, Jason Kidd couldn't shoot a lick and he was able to work on that. But then again, Kidd impressed me as a floor general much more than Rondo when they were both considering entering the draft.

[KB21]

I think a lot of Rondo's issues are with the system run at Kentucky. When he was away from that system this summer, playing with the U21 USA Basketball team, Rondo was a dominant player. He shot over 60% from the field because he got into the lane at will, and he was second in the U21 World Championships in assists, first in steals. In the trials, he dominated every point guard that was trying out for the U21 USA Team.

I wouldn't trade this pick unless the value was right. Atlanta isn't going to be able to get Andre Miller, or someone like that, with just this pick.

[joannes3000]

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I think a lot of Rondo's issues are with the system run at Kentucky. When he was away from that system this summer, playing with the U21 USA Basketball team, Rondo was a dominant player. He shot over 60% from the field because he got into the lane at will, and he was second in the U21 World Championships in assists, first in steals. In the trials, he dominated every point guard that was trying out for the U21 USA Team.

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Unfortunately I've only been able to see the struggling Rondo and while I've read about him tearing it up for Team USA, I'm just as scared to draft him as I am to draft one of the Euros because it would be based more on potential than produced results (in the case of the Euros, production against NBA types under NBA rules).

[TheRedStripes]

I think you are right that the Hawks will end up with a pick between 5 and 7. Bargnani will probably be gone before the Hawks pick, so that pretty much leaves Splitter and Rondo as the only 2 players left I would like to see them draft that high.

Personally I hope they take Splitter, because he is a 7 footer thats known for being a tough defender in the paint. From what I have read about him, and from the few highlights I have seen of him, he seems to be pretty athletic for a guy that size.

Rondo definitely has the skills and athleticism to be a really good point guard, but every time I have watched Kentucky this year Sparks is running the point for some reason, so I haven't been able to really get a good idea of how good Rondo can be, but he looked good at the point at times last year, and he had huge assist numbers in high school. I assume since he played with Josh Smith, he probably already has a good chemistry with Josh, which would be a good thing if the Hawks draft him.

[KB21]

Only Tubby Smith can tell you why he has stunted Rondo's growth as a point guard by making him play off the ball with Sparks, who is nothing more than a spot up shooter, is bringing the ball up the court. Make no mistake, Rajon Rondo is definitely a point guard. Tubby Smith has done some things at Kentucky over the past couple of years that makes one wonder if he actually wants out. There is some buzz that he's going to be the Charlotte Bobcats' coach next year.

[Nicholasp27]

at this point, i only want a shotblocking, rebounding big man

jj/chill/marvin/smoove/draftee is fine by me

so a shelden williams or splitter or tyrus or whomever is the best shotblocking, defending, rebounding post player that can play center next to smoove

or, if none of those guys look like they'd really help, then i'd go for rondo; i don't care if he can't shoot too well (look at kidd); we have shooters, we have slashers, we have scorers, we score plenty with/without al

i want a pg who can defend and dish the ball

rondo/jj/marvin/smoove/zaza with chill 6th man is fine by me

if we draft rondo, we can hopefully get nene or pryz in facy or magloire/etc in an al snt

if we draft shelden/tiago/tyrus, we can hopefully snt al for dre miller or one of portland's pgs etc

pg/ivey

jj/chill/slim

marvin/chill

smoove/big/batman

big/zaza/andersen

it'll come down to how shelden/tiago/tyrus rank and how much they fit our big man need vs how rondo ranks and how much he fits our pg need along with who bk thinks we can get in facy/trades...if he thinks we can get dre for al, then go big; if he thinks we can get nene or pryz in facy, then go rondo

i don't really want bargnani or other dirk-like bigs; we have marvin/smoove as our forward combo; i'd like to get a defensive big in draft or facy

[Dragitoff]

Based on the info you gave about scouting reports, I think alot of it depends on whether or not Al is in the long term plans. I think we all agree on this board, that outside of Al, the Hawks really don't currently have anyone else on the team w/ a solid post game. Not to say Josh, Marvin, or anyone else couldn't improve, but they don't now. If Al goes, I think you have to bring in Splitter to give you that post game presence. If he stays, it could go to either Sheldon, Splitter, or Rondo.

[drzachary]

The more I think about it, the more my gut tells me we are going to end up with Sheldon "Mongo" Williams.

He'll probably be a solid player, but I will hate my life, as any decent, God-fearing fan of a non-Duke ACC school should.

[DJlaysitup]

Concerning Rondo...I can't help but wonder if some of his pub. isn't home cooking because of the TV time they get.

Excerpt from USAToday article:

"Kentucky lost five times in Rupp Arena, and was swept by Vanderbilt. The Wildcats couldn't even win on senior day, something they had done 40 of the previous 41 years.

Now they must play on the first day of the SEC tournament with the rest of the commoners, something they have not had to do since 1979. Said guard Joe Crawford, "We have a lot to prove."

I mean if the guy is that good - with the talent KY has around him - why are they struggling so much? Surely there are better PG prospects around the country that are getting the job done?

[massaf1]

Shelden = Ken Griffey Junior on brain tonic.

[drzachary]

One good thing about Rondo is his catchy name.

Our key growth players right now are very boringly-named: Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams. We need more Rajon Rondos to go with our Zaza Pachulias.

[drzachary]

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Shelden = Ken Griffey Junior on brain tonic.

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Well said.

[drzachary]

And furthermore, what is it with Duke players with strange craniums?

Before Sheldon, there was Shane "Shar-Pei" Battier and, before him, Bob "Shovelhead" Hurley.

[Diesel]

We should see about picking up Randolph Morris. Josh Smith should have some pull here. We basically would have to over pay for his worth right now, but I think this guy has good potential. AS much as David Harrison if not more.

2ndly, we have to draft for need...

I say we go for a Big PG.

My guess is this. We can sell our pick to Dallas for Devin Harris. I think Dallas really like JT. I think they willr re-sign him.

I would really like to get Harris and maybe if Tyrus Thomas for Harris is the deal, then Dallas goes for it. In a few years, Thomas will give them a post presence that they really need.

[Dragitoff]

As a FSU fan (can finally admit that w/o shame for the first time in years), I agree. I'm not completely sold on Williams as a pro. EVERY Duke game I've watched, he's put up solid #'s, but usually was playing against a guy that was either overmatched size wise or Shelden was in foul trouble and had problems if the guy was bigger than him. This does not bode well for a guy who is even a little undersized as a PF but definitely as a C. For sake of an argument, even if the Hawks S&T Al, Where does Shelden play? Does he send ZaZa to the bench and play as a very undersized C? Does he play PF and force Marvin and Chillz to come of the bench another season? Neither scenario seems very encouraging.

[Nicholasp27]

yeah, we have both rmorris and david andersen coming up the pipes for pf/c position

hopefully one of those 2 will work out, or the big that we may draft or the big that we may sign or trade for will work out

if all of those potential spots fail, we'll be in trouble until next summer when we can hope to get a good big then

if rmorris would just live up to the potential he showed in hs, then rondo/jj/marvin/smoove/rmorris with chill/zaza as 6th/7th men could be pretty good

or if we get shelden or splitter and sign pryz and then bring up morris next year, then we can pick the best 5 from smoove/zaza/shelden/pryz/rmorris/andersen/batman/edwards/lang to keep and drop/trade the rest

[AHF]

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He shot over 60% from the field because he got into the lane at will, and he was second in the U21 World Championships in assists, first in steals. In the trials, he dominated every point guard that was trying out for the U21 USA Team.

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His numbers aren't very far off at UK this season. He leads the team in most categories and is shooting 52% from the field. It is his lack of a jump shot that hurts the team, though, because people play off of him and his 29% 3pt% isn't scaring anyone.

[AHF]

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Only Tubby Smith can tell you why he has stunted Rondo's growth as a point guard by making him play off the ball with Sparks, who is nothing more than a spot up shooter, is bringing the ball up the court.

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Here is my post on this issue when the change was made to move Sparks to PG:

UK has struggled to involve Sparks in the offense this year and his numbers have been down across the board - especially his shooting. When Sparks handles the ball more, however, he improves his game considerably and he is a true PG as well. Rondo's scoring also generally improves when he doesn't have to be the primary ball handler and he is a position to do more in terms of rebounding as the SG than Sparks can. That is why they are trying out this lineup instead of the Rondo PG, Sparks SG that they have run for most of the year. UK is just desparate for wins and trying to get this team going by any means necessary and letting Sparks return to his Western Kentucky roots where he ran the point seems to be a way of getting more production out of him.

In sum, this move has much more to do with Sparks than it does Rondo.