If we aren't going to tank....

[CBAreject]

I want to see a plan to acquire the legit 1 and 5 we need to contend. I'm not for losing for the sake of losing, only losing to build a champion. But with Josh Smith and JJ playing at this level, we will not lose enough to make it interesting (despite being within 2 games of the 3rd worst team).

My tanking talk is not just poor fanship. I am discussing my plan for bringing a title to the ATL. Don't like it? Fine! Don't insult me because I love my team. Insult the plan! If you do, though, remember that you must counter with another plan. I have stated several times that the alternative to tanking is to have a plan to acquire another game-changing player.

Show me your plan, please. I will not bash you for having a different plan. Show me a high percentage method for acquiring a player for the 2 toughest spots to man. Neither player must be a star if both are solid-starter/semi-star level (no Speedy/Zaza don't count).

Examples of players who are at this solid-starter/semi-star level are Dalembert or Biedrins at the C and Jack or Andre Miller at the PG. That's an acceptable duo at the 1/5. Not saying that makes us a champion--just a top-4 seed. Would be preferable to have a star at one of the two positions.

This is an open invitation. Please post plans and discuss. Do not discuss tanking in this thread.

[drzachary]

I'm going to break your rules and discuss tanking.

The problem is with the premise. Those of us who do not think we should tank aren't neccessarily (and I don't think I speak for everyone here) trying to answer the question you're asking, which is "how do we best acquire a pg and a c?" We are trying to answer the question, "what will help this team be a winner?" Adding a 5 and a 1 isn't neccessarily part of that!

Something this anti-tanking person is willing to admit: tanking is the best way to add a potential star center. (Adding a solid PG is a different story. There may be options in or during the upcoming draft. Marvin|Chillz|Zaza and the pick could be packaged for a PG. Or we could see what is available with the Indy pick. That said, tanking doesn't give us a PG anyways, since the top 3 picks will not be used on one.) In any case, your question should be distilled to 'how do we add a starting caliber center to our roster without tanking?' I'll leave that one to the trade gurus, for those that want to add one.

That said, I think tanking does harm to our existing players in the long-term.

My take on the larger question of how this team will succeed is to utilize athleticism at all 3 frontcourt positions to try and score before the defense is set... neglecting the need for a traditional monster 5. Shelden or Solomon could potentially fill these roles. The biggest role at 5 in a fastbreak offense is the rebound and the outlet pass, not scoring.

[exodus]

I don't see the hawks getting a franchise center or a pure franchise pg. They had their chance to get a franchise pg and blew it.

As far as the center goes they are either going to have to overpay (free agent or trade) to get one or take a gamble, or both. Daly or Nene could possibly be had through trades since i think both teams are looking to lower their salaries. Obviously both aren't worth their contracts but that is the reality of the NBA now.

They might also want to take a chance on Mihm who could be had much cheaper most likely. When i have asked Laker fans about him they have been consistently positive about him, saying that he is underrated around the league. Certainly he isn't star material but i think he would seem like it compared to the garbage we have now.

At the point i am pretty much resigned to not getting a pure pg, but i think a good 1/2 combo guard would work well playing next to JJ. There are generally plenty of guys like that available in the middle of the first round. Right now we have one pg who can score and one who can play D. I want someone who can do both.

[Diesel]

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My take on the larger question of how this team will succeed is to utilize athleticism at all 3 frontcourt positions to try and score before the defense is set... neglecting the need for a traditional monster 5. Shelden or Solomon could potentially fill these roles. The biggest role at 5 in a fastbreak offense is the rebound and the outlet pass, not scoring.

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Ah, my friend, those who don't understand the Westheadian chapter of Basketball can never understand how the fast break can be utilized and how sure victory can be achieved with it.

One thing that I really like is that we picked up Solomon. I think he may pan out to be something special if we start running and he gains about 20 lbs.

[frosgrim]

I understand the idea of tanking, and there is some statistical merit to it. I will try to put down the problems with it so that we can move forward.

1. Doesn't guarantee a top 3 pick. Improves the chances, but not a sure thing.

2. Affects current players dramatically. Loosing is infectious and can create a cycle of loosing. Learning to win and be successful in the NBA is EXTREMELY important for the Joshes and the Williams-es. Third, JJ's morale needs to be kept as high as possible. Tanking, however it would be accomplished, would demoralize the current roster more than it already is.

3. Doesn't improve the fan base. The fans already don't come so this really isn't that big of a deal per se, but the ASG needs to increase the attendance to help out with the books.

Alternative idea:

This idea is just as risky as tanking, but doesn't carry the risk of loosing/demoralization factor plus ending up the 4th (and thus nothing).

Play the current season out with the current roster. I would prefer that a trade be made to get a post pressence but with the legal issues I don't see us being able to make a trade. ASG will put their dollars into the Thrashers this season as the T-birds have a chance of winning a Stanley Cup if they can get a legit center to go with Kovy.

In the off-season make the biggest and best pitch possible for Dwight Howard. Listening to the comments about DH last night on the broadcast makes me think he absolutely wants to play in the ATL. He mentioned missing home cooking and having dinner with his mom and dad. Howard can force Orlando to make a trade either this off season or next. Orlando, if they are smart, make the trade this summer. We send some combo or Marvin, Childress, Sheldon and a first round pick (the Indiana one this year or a future one). Dwight can play center for the Hawks, with Smith at the PF and either Chil or Marvin at the SF.

Adding Howard into the Hawks' line-up instantly gives them another 10-12 wins. The combo of JJ and DH, plus a maturing Smoove gives the team incredible offensive potential and a very solid defense.

The next question is PG. This hole may have to wait another year, but Rome wasn't built in a day. We have pieces still to move or a late round pick (heck Cync maybe a solution here). I doubt Speedy can do much for us. But we will still have the vet exception if we are capped to get someone. I would have to think a PG would love to play with JJ, Smoove, and Howard.

The above plan is risky and is dependent upon ownership getting settled, so it may not be realistic per se. But, if it works the Hawks will be a dominant team.

[Diesel]

But not a long one.

However, if he can play like he did the other night!?!?!

[Diesel]

I like your plan to get Howard.

I think if he forces the issue, it can work. I think Orlando would fight him tooth to nail... That being the case, I would still put a helluva package out there for Orl.

Maybe: Marvin, this years first (indy), and unprotected first in 2009.

With Grant Hill's contract finally up, maybe Orlando would like the thought of Marvin.

So as you said.. maybe the Hawks make a strong push and hope that Marvin develops some trade value.

[frosgrim]

What I am seeing is that Howard is going to pull a Shaq on Orlando. He can simply say "I am going to play for the Hawks". He can let that be known to Hawks management via several channels. This leaves Orlando in a crisis. They have to take what they can for him this summer or Howard simply walks over to the Hawks a year later and they receive no compensation, or less than they can get in the summer of 07.

This all maybe pie in the sky thinking, but there seem to be a lot of indications out there. This might also explain why we are staying 8 mil under the cap. Keep the space now so that we can spend it on Dwight and Josh Smith.

[exodus]

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They have to take what they can for him this summer or Howard simply walks over to the Hawks a year later and they receive no compensation, or less than they can get in the summer of 07.

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It doesn't work like that since he will be a restricted free agent next summer. He would have to take a 1 yr tender offer to become unrestricted in '09.

[frosgrim]

Right, he gets an offer this summer, but he will get to walk after next season.

Since Orlando can sign him to a one year deal, this is the summer that Orlando should trade him to maximize their return. Dwight can tell them that he has no intention of resigning the following year, thus forcing their hand. I think this is what Jamaal Crawford did with the Bulls. Shaq screwed the Magic when he walked so they have to be worried about the same thing happening again.

[exodus]

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but he will get to walk after next season.

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No he can't.

First this is his 3rd season. Rookie contracts go 4 seasons.

They don't have to make him an offer this summer. Next year he will still be under his rookie contract.

He can't walk even after his rookie contract is up because he will be restricted. Orlando can match any offer he gets.

The only way he can be unrestricted is if he takes a one year tender offer (for his 5th season). Then he can walk after his 5th season.

[DJlaysitup]

Are there some articles I've missed? I mean it's one thing to say you'd like to play on the same team as your friend - but is there some sort of animosity between Howard and the Magic? I hope that's the case but really haven't heard as much. I would think a guy like Howard - in his first contract - would want to maximize income and stay within his team's good graces.

[TexasPete]

Howard is not coming to Atlanta. He will sign a max deal and stay with the Magic. He is nothing like Shaq in personality. The gamble he would take is not worth it.

Give up the DH stuff. Ain't happening. And the Hawks are under the cap because they have Chills and Smooves extensions brewing. Too bad we burned cap on Speedy.

[exodus]

agreed. There is ZERO chance that the Hawks can sign Howard as a free agent in '09. The only way we could get him is if he pulls a Vince Carter and forces a trade which i just can't see happening.

[BusBoyIsBack]

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agreed. There is ZERO chance that the Hawks can sign Howard as a free agent in '09. The only way we could get him is if he pulls a Vince Carter and forces a trade which i just can't see happening.

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Definitely more than a zero percent chance. Any player can be traded. There are current and future HOFers in every sport that people could swear were locks to stay with their current team, but you never know what could happen.

Atlanta is Dwight's hometown and he has publicly stated he would love to play with Josh Smith again.

What ever small percentage chance that Dwight doesn't re-sign with the Magic, I say we are that small percentage.

Anyways, people with this tanking theory are missing the point. We don't have to land a franchise 1 and 5. We just need quality players there. They don't have to be NBA Superstars. We aren't another NBA Superstar away, we are two legit starters away. The reason we don't need superstars is because in the 2-4 positions we have 3 guys with legit star potential. JJ is already a star, Josh Smith is on his way, and Marvin Williams has the talent to become one.

[exodus]

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agreed. There is ZERO chance that the Hawks

can sign Howard as a free agent in '09.

The only way we could get him is if he pulls a Vince Carter and forces a trade which i just can't see happening.

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Definitely more than a zero percent chance. Any player can be traded.

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[frosgrim]

I see where I misunderstood the rookie rules. I had it as the fourth year being a qualifying year, but since 98 its the fifth year. So that does mean the Hawks have to wait until 08 to make an offer.

If Howard wants to leave the Magic he can force a trade in 08.

That said, the Hawks must make a move to get a big. A big will make more of a difference than a PG IMO. What we need is a post scorer. That is, someone who can score with their back to the basket.

But due to the salary/income/legal issues of the ASG, I just don't see it happening...

[Guest Walter]

Seems nobody can answer your question. Dr.Z's "It's not about getting a legit 1 and 5 it's about what helps us win" (I would argue "contend" rather than merely "win") is about as evasive and ludicrious as it gets. Does he think we need another 3 to help us win?

Anyhow, alot of scurrying about looking busy but still no plan.

W

[drzachary]

Rereading my post, I can see how it might be confusing to some. Let me break it down a little bit more:

1- Tanking is the best way to get a possible star center at any cost. (Let's exclude point guard for the time being, since tanking has no real bearing on it.)

2- Tanking, IMO, does great harm to the psychology of the players, their chemistry, and other intangibles.

3- I do not think the possibility of getting a star center is worth possibly destroying those intangibles. In other words, the cost is too high!

If the question is 'how should we get a star center at any cost?'

The answer is... tank! That much is obvious. Where we differ is what the cost is.

[frosgrim]

I believe that I offered a plan, as flawed as it is, its still an alternative. Tanking is not a plan its desperation. Plus, it still doesn't assure the Hawks of getting a star center in the draft.

The team needs to get a post player, we could get into the Gasol trade talks. A three-way with the Hawks getting Gasol and getting players that Memphis wants could work. Gasol makes the Hawks a better team.