Is the Braves' optimism realistic?

[CBAreject]

Braves are talking about how they effectively got an entire new dominant bullpen (full season of Wickman, additions of Gonzalez/Soriano) plus a "free-agent signing" in Mike Hampton.

They are expecting the pitching staff, despite no new faces in the rotation to be completely different. Are they right?

Maybe I'm a homer, but I think they are. It's even more than what they say. You get a full season of Chuck James making up for half a year of Jorge Sosa. You get a healthy Kyle Davies instead of a revolving door 5th starter spot. You get a Tim Hudson who has resumed his offseason core-muscle workout routine (that he ditched and lost 5 mph on his fastball).

Being conservative, if Chuck James pitches even a little worse than last year (say 4.00 ERA), Tim Hudson pitches about as well as he did in 2005 (3.5 ERA), Mike Hampton is healthy and pitches as well as he did in 2003, 2004, or 2005, and Kyle Davies is healthy and pitches near the bottom of his ability level (5.00 ERA), AND John Smoltz does not suddenly get a lot worse....it's the best rotation in the division.

The bullpen, barring more than one injury, is the best in the NL. I know it's not rated there, but people don't give their 4th-7th guys enough credit.

If those conservative expectations pan out, I think it's the #2 staff in the NL to the Dodgers. Maybe I'm a homer, but what the hell? Never been excited about a Braves bullpen before the season. Remember when Greg McMichael and Mike Stanton fought in spring training for the closer spot?

Wickman - 9th

Gonzalez - 8th

Soriano - 7th

Villareal - long (and backup starter)

McBride - lefty specialist

and Yates, Paronto, Devine, Stockman, Sturtze can fight for the last 2 spots in the spring. Devine and Stockman are nasty, but they have options, so I expect them to start the year at AAA.

Love it. Braves pitching is back.

[frosgrim]

This team is going to be very competitive, like World Series level.

The 'pen is going to be NASTY. You forgot Blaine Boyer in that group. The kid is healthy and is a power pitching left hander.

The three holes that the Braves have are:

1) Clutch hitting- this can be solved if Chipper stays healthy and plays 145 games.

2) 2nd base. Whose going to take the job? The newspaper has Kelly Johnson playing there. But there is Prado, Aybar, and Perez. Aybar is the guy in my mind that should get the job because he also fills the number 3 hole (below).

3) Leadoff. Giles was simply horrible last year in the 1 hole. We need someone that can just get on base, but I would prefer a guy that can get steals as well. Steals allow you to turn a leadoff walk into a leadoff double in an instant. With Rent and Chipper coming up that is a run 1 out of 2 or 3 times.

Those are the major holes as I see it.

Yes there maybe some trepidation about the starters, but Hudson will be better and Hampton can be huge for the team.

Smoltz didn't show any signs of serious decline last year. James should be solid but not spectacular. The fifth spot in the rotation will be up for grabs between Davies and Villareal both of whom should do fine in that role. We can also use one of those guys to get a piece if we need one (like a power hitting LF).

[chillzatl]

hampton is back? I thought he was done?

[Plainview1981]

Quote:

---

Braves are talking about how they effectively got an entire new dominant bullpen (full season of Wickman, additions of Gonzalez/Soriano) plus a "free-agent signing" in Mike Hampton.

They are expecting the pitching staff, despite no new faces in the rotation to be completely different. Are they right?

Maybe I'm a homer, but I think they are. It's even more than what they say. You get a full season of Chuck James making up for half a year of Jorge Sosa. You get a healthy Kyle Davies instead of a revolving door 5th starter spot. You get a Tim Hudson who has resumed his offseason core-muscle workout routine (that he ditched and lost 5 mph on his fastball).

Being conservative, if Chuck James pitches even a little worse than last year (say 4.00 ERA), Tim Hudson pitches about as well as he did in 2005 (3.5 ERA), Mike Hampton is healthy and pitches as well as he did in 2003, 2004, or 2005, and Kyle Davies is healthy and pitches near the bottom of his ability level (5.00 ERA), AND John Smoltz does not suddenly get a lot worse....it's the best rotation in the division.

The bullpen, barring more than one injury, is the best in the NL. I know it's not rated there, but people don't give their 4th-7th guys enough credit.

If those conservative expectations pan out, I think it's the #2 staff in the NL to the Dodgers. Maybe I'm a homer, but what the hell? Never been excited about a Braves bullpen before the season. Remember when Greg McMichael and Mike Stanton fought in spring training for the closer spot?

Wickman - 9th

Gonzalez - 8th

Soriano - 7th

Villareal - long (and backup starter)

McBride - lefty specialist

and Yates, Paronto, Devine, Stockman, Sturtze can fight for the last 2 spots in the spring. Devine and Stockman are nasty, but they have options, so I expect them to start the year at AAA.

Love it. Braves pitching is back.

---

You never know how it's going to play out. Things don't always workout like people expect.

[CBAreject]

I thought I covered that with my generous use of the word "if" and repeated qualifying statements.

[joannes3000]

Quote:

---

Braves are talking about how they effectively got an entire new dominant bullpen (full season of Wickman, additions of Gonzalez/Soriano) plus a "free-agent signing" in Mike Hampton.

They are expecting the pitching staff, despite no new faces in the rotation to be completely different. Are they right?

---

I think so. Resigning Wickman alone was good because that had a trickle down effect on the bullpen. Adding to that foundation with Soriano AND Gonzalez means we can let our starters go full blast for six innings and worry a whole lot less, or have the luxury of pulling a starter early if he's in trouble.

Having Wickman for a full season last year would've kept us somewhat competitive, and given our history I think if we were in a playoff race at the end of last season we could've won it. This season our bullpen should be lights out and that will trickle down (or up) to our starters.

[codyatl]

errrr.....Blaine Boyer is no lefty power pitcher.

I do believe that they braves should be back at the top of the NL again. This is far and away the best bullpen we have ever seen in atlanta. depth and power. JS has effectively shortened the games to 6 innings which should help Smoltz and Hampton. Give credit were credit is due. JS has done an incredible job considering his constraints by our pathetic owners, AOL.

[Pamfilioso]

I love the Braves, and I see us winning the wild card at most this upcoming year. I'm usually the positive guy but I really dont see us topping the Mets for a while. Never know though

[CBAreject]

The Mets starting rotation has the potential to be just awful. Pedro is missing more than half the season, and who knows if he'll be in top form when he comes back?

Glavine should be solid, but after him they really don't have another decent starter.

I expect the Mets to win about 85 games. No foolin'.

[DrReality]

They've put together a hell of a pitching staff. Hope the do the same for their offense. Would be nice to see them get some enthusiasm going for a change.

[KB21]

Blaine Boyer is a power right hander.

Also, as far as clutch hitting goes, Jeff Francoeur was among the best in MLB last year when hitting with runner's in scoring position as well as his hitting from the 7th inning on. He's very much a clutch hitter, which is why some call him "clutchy" even if the statheads don't believe in clutch hitting.

I like Kelly Johnson at second base. I love the guy's swing and feel he will be a very good hitter that could come close to posting a .400 OBP with his patience at the plate. I think he can be a little too patient at times, but I really like his ability to swing the bat.

[drzachary]

Quote:

---

Also, as far as clutch hitting goes, Jeff Francoeur was among the best in MLB last year when hitting with runner's in scoring position as well as his hitting from the 7th inning on.

---

Unfortunately, he's one of the worst in MLB at hitting in general. (Or, more specifically, not creating outs when batting.)

[KB21]

The guy hit 30 home runs and drove in over 100 runs. He's clearly not one of the worst hitters in baseball. His numbers as a 22 year old were actually better than Dale Murphy's numbers at the same age.

[drzachary]

Quote:

---

The guy hit 30 home runs and drove in over 100 runs. He's clearly not one of the worst hitters in baseball. His numbers as a 22 year old were actually better than Dale Murphy's numbers at the same age.

---

.239 OBP for a right-fielder. That's atrocious. I know you're a fan of stats, so don't bring RBI into it, since it's more a team stat than a personal stat. The home runs are great, of course. His (hypothetical) platoon splits put him at league average OBP versus lefties.

On a less constrained team, he would be learning plate discipline in the minors. He's going to be a huge part of the team for many, many years, but he's just getting exposed at this level. Still fine for a 7 hitter on a great offense though! And his arm counts for a lot.

Check this out:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/dFRc

He's not ready for the big leagues, but he will be! There's just no way his awful walk rate (including striking out on intentional balls!!) will go anywhere but up.

[TroyMcClure]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Also, as far as clutch hitting goes, Jeff Francoeur was among the best in MLB last year when hitting with runner's in scoring position as well as his hitting from the 7th inning on.

---

Unfortunately, he's one of the worst in MLB at hitting in general. (Or, more specifically, not creating outs when batting.)

---

I agree with both. I have been at the park more than once when Jeff has unloaded on a ball at a critical point in the game. It just screams off his bat. Out of the park in like 1.8 seconds!

He also has, and I'm not joking here, the worst plate discipline of anyone I have ever seen at the major league level. He will swing at anything. It really scares me how undisciplined he is. He has absolutely given us no chance a few times at the end of a game. (whiffing at complete garbage) That said, he is a star! Big time arm from the outfield. We should enjoy this probable last year of Andruw and Jeff together.

[Pamfilioso]

We all know this is Andruw's last season with Atlanta. How can we replace him?

[drzachary]

Quote:

---

We all know this is Andruw's last season with Atlanta. How can we replace him?

---

Owner who will spend money?

[frosgrim]

My bad on the r-l with Boyer.

The AJC had an interesting insight into Francuer. This will be his first full spring training with the major league team. He can really work on his plate discipline now, instead of doing it during the season.

As far as replacing Andruw, I don't thin the Braves can per se. His bat can be replaced, but his defense is going to be exremely hard to come by. Maybe Torii Hunter?

You would have to think the Yankees would be interested in AJ.

The sale of the team looks like its hitting a lot of snags. From some comments I read it looks like T-W might start looking to go to one of the other potential buyers soon. T-W wants to unload the Braves, Liberty just wants to the team to sell it again. If the tax transfer thing isn't going to work, then T-W should sell to Blank or Dickey Broadcasting.

[TroyMcClure]

Quote:

---

Love it. Braves pitching is back.

---

Let's keep our fingers crossed! I am so hyped about taking out the Mets and reclaimimg the division. But really, who cares? If we can get in, we can win! And we can get in. Just a smidgen more last year, and maybe it's us instead of the Cards.

[joannes3000]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

We all know this is Andruw's last season with Atlanta. How can we replace him?

---

Owner who will spend money?

---

Hopefully the Braves sale will be approved sooner than later to Liberty Media. Not that one media conglomerate will be more willing to spend than another, but we knew Time Warner was content with a payroll of $80m. Here's to hoping that Liberty will be willing to bump that up a bit - just in time to resign Andruw.