Hibbert may not be as iffy as we think

[GST]

I was digging around, and found Ken Pomeroy's blog (kenpom.com). He had this to say about Hibbert during the '05-'06 season:

"One of the things about this personal stats venture is that the true value for a guy like Hibbert is discovered. His per-game averages won’t get much attention because he plays 25 mpg for a tortoise-paced team. For instance, compare Hibbert’s opportunities to that of Shelden Williams. Duke plays at a pace that is 16% faster than Georgetown. Williams plays 34% more minutes per game than Hibbert. In essence, the Landlord gets 54% more possessions to put up his numbers. Give Hibbert those opportunities and his 14.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, and 2.7 bpg become 22.2/10.2/4.2."

What he is saying is that the Princeton offense and Hibbert's low minutes per game kept his rebounding numbers down.

[Vafan]

Hibbert could be a defensive anchor for our team. Very Mutombo like.

[Plastic Man]

Hibbert MUST do some serious conditioning and learn how to play good D without fouling. Then he would be able to stay on the floor and have a game-changing impact.

[asdogg]

Mutumbo had no offense Hibbert does. It is stupid draft a freaking PG at 3 when you have 4 7ftrs in the draft.

[lunar]

if i were the knight i would draft him at three. there is a chance conley falls to us at 11 (even if he isn't there we can still get acie law IV) but there is no chance hibbert gets past sacremento. you can't teach size and at 7'2" 260 and already playing great defense. we can't go wrong with him. add an expirenced point like law or conley if he slips and we should be looking at the playoffs in 2008

[MoonKnight]

There is no doubt that Georgetown's style impacts all of their players stats including Hibberts. Hibbert played Oden very well when the two matched up and is a good barometer of how he might play against other quality big men. I also like the fact that he improved drastically each year on campus and is clearly a hard worker. If we draft based on need compared to BPA, the big question is whether Hibbert is more of a reach at #3 than Conley at #3. I have certainly not made up my mind on the question but I am leaning toward the idea that Conley is more of a reach at #3 than Hibbert.

[Dejay]

I don't know, something about him screams project to me. I hope you're right.

[NJHAWK]

In reality Oden is also a project.

[lunar]

at worst he's is a drastic upgrade over lorenzen wright day one. i'm thinking of him holding driving players at bay while josh smith pounces on them. defense improves automatically.

law/ claxton/ lue/ johnson

johnson/ stoudmire

williams/ childress

smith/ williams

hibbert/ pachulia

that team would be sick.

it even makes paculia, wright, and the point guards expendable. marcus camby maybe?

[AmishBoy]

If he has good combine #'s like agility he's going to be hard to pass up. We know we need and 1 and 5. We WILL get one. It's unavoidable even for Billy. Not only will be get one but we can get the best one available at the position.

[DrReality]

Please don't forget how he played Oden. Very tough. Very, very tough. Great match up and he stepped up and held his own. Maybe showed more of his potential in that game than he did all year. He could very well be the anchor. Big help for JJ, Smoove, Za, et al. I'd be hard pressed to pass him at three.

Law is a seasoned pg that will likely be there at 11.

[exodus]

I would be fine with taking Hibbert at 3. He looked good the times i watched him. He is certainly better than any center the Hawks could get through trades or free agency.

Plus we know that at least one (and maybe more) of Conley/Law/Crit will be there at 11.

[DJlaysitup]

Quote:

---

Mutumbo had no offense Hibbert does. It is stupid draft a freaking PG at 3 when you have 4 7ftrs in the draft.

---

Agreed asdogg (and ex...we must've been posting at the same time)...I remember we used to laugh at Mt. Mutombo for his "hands of stone" out in Denver - but he was a force inside and that meant a lot.

No way do you take a 6 foot 1/2" freshman PG over a 7+ footer who has shown continuous improvement in a program known for it's big men (G-Town). Especially when one of you primary needs is a center.

I think there may be options to get Hibbert in a trade-down...some teams may covet Horford...but I wouldn't be totally bummed to see BK take Hibbert at the 3 and the best PG left (Con/Law/Crit) at the 11.

[OGRat]

This is what I am hoping for. I just hope we don't take Noah due to his offensive liabilities.

[DJlaysitup]

Agreed....and I think we also have to be realistic OGR in that Noah is no real center...and while he is probably 3 inches taller than JS, JS can sky 6 inches higher than him and has excellent timing. If you are looking at Noah as anything other than a 5 you are wasting your time because JS is far better already at the 4 and about the same age and has improved every year.

If you're looking at Noah as a pure 5 - look again (IMHO).

[Lascar78]

I agree no Noah, certainly not at 3. No Yi either. No Wright either. I think as of right now I would go Conley just because he is the best PG/C we can get. There is definitely a fair argument for taking Hibbert because at least we'd have one young C with potential and one young PG with potential, but you are gambling on his motivation and dedication.

[dig]

While I wouldn't mind drafting Hibbert, I don't think we should do so at the expense of losing Conley. The OP mentioned Hibbert's pace-adjusted stats, but part of the problem is that Hibbert's lack of athleticism, quickness, and stamina prevents him from flourishing in a fast-paced system. [i realize GTOWN would run the Princeton system regardless, but this is certainly a weakness that would hurt him on our team.] Noah, in contrast, does not have an offensive game but can run, play defense, and even rebounds & blocks shots better than Hibbert.

I still think Hibbert could be awesome if he gets and stays in shape [which he has shown the desire to do], but my point is that we need a pure PG in this draft who can contribute soon. I like Law's game, but he is a text book combo guard who doesn't really make his teammates better and has pretty much peaked as an athlete. I think Crit COULD be the best PG in the draft but he will take a couple of years while Conley could start by season's end. Remember we won't have a 1st rnd pick in next year's draft, which will likely feature several top-shelf PGs...

[TexasPete]

Hibbert is on the stiff side and isn't a great defender or rebounder for his size.

He didn't even hire an agent because he wasn't sure he was a lottery pick. Now, we want him at 3?

Not me. His best case is Big Z in Cleveland. The NBA is going away from traditional centers anyway. IF he was a big shot blocker and rebounder then fine. He isn't.

If were smart we make Portland pay thru the nose for Conley. That's the smart play.

[exodus]

It was a breakout season and breakout tournament for Georgetown center Roy Hibbert, and even though the Hoyas would fall to Greg Oden and Ohio State this evening, Hibbert put in yet another performance that is sure to keep his stock on the rise. While he was clearly the most dominant player of the East region, Hibbert had yet to face a test from somebody his own size. Before tonight, it was still possible for a skeptic to bring up the fact that he was doing most of his work against 6'8 defenders. But tonight's 19 point performance against Greg Oden should put those doubts to rest once and for all. Hibbert more than held his own, perhaps even outplaying the more hyped freshman by a small margin.

Hibbert was a game-changing force once again, providing not only the shot blocking presence you would expect from a player of his size, but also doing an excellent job of manning up on Oden. Hibbert didn't overextend himself in attempting to block his shots, but rather played solid positional defense and limited the easy looks of his formidable opponent. He did do a good job as a weak-side shot-blocker, swatting one Oden dunk attempt and altering numerous other Buckeye attempts in the lane.

On the offensive end, we got to see just how dramatic the improvement has been over the past year. Hibbert displayed a bit of everything, whether it was the sweeping traditional hook early on, an emphatic spin move conversion on Oden midway through the second half, the 20 foot jumper, or the jump hook that kept Georgetown within striking distance as Ohio State was starting to pull away in the closing minutes. Hibbert did a great job of cutting to the basket early in the game and his teammates did a phenomenal job of finding him as he flashed to holes in the defense. This added several emphatic dunks to Hibbert's point total. It must be said once again that as slow and lumbering as he looks running up and down the court, Hibbert is surprisingly agile on the low block.

Once again, the only people that contained Hibbert didn't suit up for the opponent. For as well as he contested Ohio State at the rim, he still was whistled for ticky-tack fouls early and often. He ended up spending a large chunk of the game on the bench, and this allowed Ohio State to largely dictate tempo. Georgetown's saving grace was that Oden picked up a pair of early fouls as well, but Hibbert's fourth really put the Hoyas in a bind. Foul trouble isn't something that is going to keep Hibbert's draft stock in check, but it is partially responsible for Hibbert's less than attention-grabbing numbers in a tournament where his play was absolutely attention worthy.

All in all, nobody has improved their draft stock more than Roy Hibbert in the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Not only does the 7-footer impress with his improved skill level and feel for the game on an individual basis, but Georgetown is essentially a different team when he is on the court. There probably wasn't an individual more important to his team in March than Hibbert was to Georgetown, and that includes Oden. There is no doubting that Hibbert still has significant work to do on his game, whether it is polishing up the mechanics on his back to the basket game or continuing to improve his open court mobility, but Hibbert's performance is now impossible to ignore. He is a legit NBA center prospect, even before taking into account that he'll be one of the biggest 5-men in the league the moment he steps on the court.

Will Roy Hibbert be selected in the Top 5 of the upcoming draft? First off, he'll have to declare - and this isn't necessarily a given. Secondly, he will have to find the right team, one that emphasizes more of a half-court oriented style of play. The cards will have to fall right in terms of who gets what pick, but it now appears that Hibbert will have to get consideration from just about any slower-paced team drafting outside the Top 2.

[Read Full Article]

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NCAA Tournament: NBA Draft Stock Watch (Elite Eight, Sunday games)

March 27, 2007

Although the stats might not indicate it, Roy Hibbert played arguably his most impressive game in a Georgetown uniform, on the most important stage he’s been on in his young career so far.

Considering how he dominated the game for nearly every minute he was on the floor, it’s almost shocking to see him end up with only 13 points. He did everything Georgetown could have asked from him, and did so while being matched up against two very highly regarded NBA prospects in Brandan Wright and Tyler Hansbrough.

At times, it looked like Hibbert was just toying with those who were on the floor with him. He started off the game on a complete blitz, coming up with 7 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists in the first 10 minutes, but having to go to the bench at that point with his second foul. He started to game off with a gorgeous pass over the top of his head to a slashing teammate, and then absolutely wowed by creating his own shot off the dribble from the perimeter and spinning gracefully into the paint for a layup, an incredible move for a 7-2 player. He grabbed offensive rebounds right underneath the rim, sometimes flat-footed, and showed deceptive quickness going out of his area as well.

Hibbert was about as aggressive calling for the ball as we’ve seen him, moving from side to side constantly, setting picks, and establishing deadly position around the basket to finish automatically with his jump-hook or drop-step. When double teams came, he reacted instantaneously, for example by dropping off a perfectly timed back-door bounce pass right into the hands of a cutting teammate for a simple lay-up.

If this game showed us anything, it’s how far along Hibbert’s coordination and instincts have come since we first started seriously evaluating him as an NBA draft prospect. His reaction time has become superb these days—for a 7-2 player at least—and that came out first and foremost in the defense he played against North Carolina. On numerous occasions he had less than a split-second to react to a surprising offensive rebound that took a strange bounce off the rim or a drop-off from Ty Lawson right into the hands of one of his post players. Hibbert didn’t hesitate for a second, showing terrific hands snatching up loose balls and sticking his hands in all the right places to come up with a career high 6 blocks. When he grabbed an offensive rebound, he didn’t need any time to gather himself, going straight back to finish strong the way you’d expect a big man his size to.

Much to the dismay of the Georgetown bench, Hibbert was called for his third foul about a minute into the 2nd half. This kept him off the floor for long stretches, and he only ended up scoring his first basket of the half with 4:15 left to go in the 2nd half. 30 seconds later, he already had his fourth foul, although he would continue to play and play well for big chunks of the rest of the game, including overtime.

In the end, it didn’t really matter, as Hibbert showed the NBA executives in attendance all they needed to see. NBA referees don’t call the kind of ticky-tack fouls that college refs seem to be infatuated with, so one day we might look forward to seeing a player like Hibbert being rewarded for his aggressiveness rather than sent to the bench. This is really the only thing that can ruin this upcoming week’s matchup between Hibbert and Oden…the over-exuberance of the stripes.

[Read Full Article]

[Lascar78]

I'm not seeing why Portland would pay through the nose for Conley. If Oden is the real deal, paired up with Brandon Roy and Aldridge etc... top PG's will be begging to go there in a year or two. They MIGHT try to get Conley, but they have no reason to panic