Reasons for Optimism

[vdunkndunk]

First, given the Hawks luck, who could have predicted we'd come up with the 3rd pick and the 11th pick in the draft, when we very easily could have had no picks at all? I feel so snake-bitten as a Hawks fan that I was sure the Pacers would drop into the top 10 and keep their pick, while the Hawks landed the 4th pick and sent Horford or Conley to Phoenix. Instead, we got very, very close to having the best-case scenario unfold right before our eyes.

That alone is reason to feel like our luck is changing.

Second, we got the third best player in the draft, a guy who fills a lot of needs in the post for us, plus a PG who many people seem to like and who, aside from some poor shooting, is apparently playing very well this summer. Even Shelden is putting up bigtime numbers right now. Basically, when was the last time people agreed with what the Hawks did in the draft? When was the last time our draft picks came in and played well in their first SL?

Another area where our luck is beginning to change.

Third, we actually have a fairly balanced roster, with some talent and some depth at every position. We also have more experience than we've had for years. Basically, we have a lottery pick to groom at PG, along with 3 decent backups. We have one of the best SG's in the league. We have a 2 pick at SF and a 6 pick to back him up and swing between the 2 and 3. We have an exciting up-and-comer at PF. We have the number 3 pick at C, a guy who is already drawing rave reviews. And Shelden is starting to play well and will battle Zaza for playing time at the big man positions, maybe even proving that he was worth a top 10 pick.

A fleshed out roster? Talented depth? Experience and cohesion? Unheard of for the Hawks recently, but another area where our luck is beginning to change.

Finally, at long last we have dumped our ugly, ugly uniforms. No more 90's-looking Hawk with outstretched wings. No more ketchup and mustard color scheme. We have a new look to go with a new roster and a new attitude. We never made the playoffs once with those new uniforms....but now they're gone. The Hawks finally have a chance to establish a new identity that doesn't involve years and years of losing.

Just one more way in which our luck is changing.

So if our luck really is changing, what if the stars aligned for us next year?

What if.........

Joe plays at the same level he did last year....

Smoove takes another step forward and gets more consistent......

Marvin takes a big step forward in his third year (a common occurrence) and starts scoring 16 or 17 points with regularity....

Al Horford comes in and averages 14 ppg, 8 rpg, and 1.5 bpg, providing us with a legitimate post scorer and passer....

Acie Law comes in and gives us some on court leadership along with around 10 ppg and 5 apg.....

Speedy Claxton gets healthy and gives us a season more like the one in which he won the 6th man of the year award.....

Chill takes another step forward and also gets more consistent.....

and....

Shelden and Zaza push each other and give us quality minutes and depth at C?

To be honest, none of that seems impossible to me....a lot of it even seems likely. And if most of that stuff happens, I don't see why we couldn't make the playoffs in the East this year. Not only that, but this could develop into a team to watch over the next couple of seasons. Although there will certainly be some ups and downs, it really does feel like, for the first time in a long time, the Hawks' luck is beginning to change.

[roezag]

I would just like to throw T. Lue in there as well. If Law becomes a formidable starter right away, I love Lue as a backup PG. I just don't like him as the starter.

[vdunkndunk]

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I would just like to throw T. Lue in there as well. If Law becomes a formidable starter right away, I love Lue as a backup PG. I just don't like him as the starter.

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The good thing about having T-Lue, AJ, and Speedy is that, even if they're constantly getting hurt, we should always have at least one or two healthy PGs. That's a big difference from how it's been the last couple seasons...although I'm not sure we're going to keep all those guys around.

[DJlaysitup]

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I would just like to throw T. Lue in there as well. If Law becomes a formidable starter right away, I love Lue as a backup PG. I just don't like him as the starter.

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I would put Speedy as our top PG right now. Taking into consideration that Acie obviously has a spot, I would tend to go with TLue over AJ. Maybe I'm wrong...it's a tough choice.

[Dexmethylphenidate]

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I would just like to throw T. Lue in there as well. If Law becomes a formidable starter right away, I love Lue as a backup PG. I just don't like him as the starter.

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I would put Speedy as our top PG right now. Taking into consideration that Acie obviously has a spot, I would tend to go with TLue over AJ. Maybe I'm wrong...it's a tough choice.

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I'd prefer AJ because I hate when Lue ball hogs for 20 sec and put up desperate shot (this happens more often then not).

[DJlaysitup]

Yep...I agree with the frustration of TLue hogging the ball. I could go either way depending on what we might be able to get (likely not much but something's better than nothing).

I do have a concern with plugging in Acie for big minutes in his rookie year though.

[vdunkndunk]

I don't know why, but I've always liked AJ. I thought he played very well for the Pacers a few years ago, and played pretty well for us last season. He's pretty solid in a lot of different areas, but he's not a real difference maker.

And we haven't seen the real Speedy in a Hawks uniform, so I'm just not sure what to think. Obviously he can't shoot and he's not much of a passer, but he's an incredible defender and, in the past at least, he's been able to get to the rim some of the time and score.

It does annoy me how T-Lue runs the offense, especially when he just keeps dribbling and dribbling, but he can really shoot. I'd almost prefer it if T-Lue played backup SG when we needed someone to come in and stretch the defense.

As for Law, I really have no idea what he'll be able to give us. Sometimes I think he'll struggle to play meaningful minutes as a backup PG, and sometimes I think he can start for us by the end of the season. Best-case scenario would be 10 ppg and 5 apg, something like that.

[Peoriabird]

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alone is reason to feel like our luck is changing.

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You seem either bipolar or just trying to cover your bases in case things go one way or other way. yesterday you were sounding off about Shelden, Law and your lack of trust for BK. Now you are optimistic? Did one summer league game change your outlook? Was it Law hitting a few shots changing your mind about him? I don't get it! Most realistic fan have been preaching the same thing which is you have to be patient with young players. The strange thing about some posters is that they are willing to wait until Smoove is 30 before declaring him a player with a lot of holes in his game. But players like Marvin, Shelden, and now Law have to be star right away! Posters look for reasons to criticize Marvin & Shelden and I know that this fake admission of optimism will turn to bitter hate the minute either makes a mistake. So try to sell this load of crap to suckers on another message board because I aint buying it!!!

[DJlaysitup]

C'mon now PB...let's not be too critical. Everybody knows that I'm a died-in-the-wool fence sitter too. That's what makes summer league games interesting.

Remember, you were a big Patrick O'Bryant backer

[Peoriabird]

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C'mon now PB...let's not be too critical. Everybody knows that I'm a died-in-the-wool fence sitter. That's what makes summer league games interesting.

Remember, you were a big Patrick O'Bryant backer

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You remembered Ha! I admitted that I was wrong and embraced Shelden once he became a Hawk! And when he does well, I am happy unlike some other posters that continue to hate and purpose trades every other day regardless of the player's progress! And of course every other team's bum is better than everybody on the Hawks except JJ and Smoove. I'm just tired of it!

[DJlaysitup]

Good point...I go back and forth way too much.

I think we may just have a pretty deep team this year though.

[vdunkndunk]

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alone is reason to feel like our luck is changing.

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You seem either bipolar or just trying to cover your bases in case things go one way or other way. yesterday you were sounding off about Shelden, Law and your lack of trust for BK. Now you are optimistic? Did one summer league game change your outlook? Was it Law hitting a few shots changing your mind about him? I don't get it! Most realistic fan have been preaching the same thing which is you have to be patient with young players. The strange thing about some posters is that they are willing to wait until Smoove is 30 before declaring him a player with a lot of holes in his game. But players like Marvin, Shelden, and now Law have to be star right away! Posters look for reasons to criticize Marvin & Shelden and I know that this fake admission of optimism will turn to bitter hate the minute either makes a mistake. So try to sell this load of crap to suckers on another message board because I aint buying it!!!

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I don't understand why people became so emotional about my criticism of the Acie Law pick. No, I don't think he was the best pick. I said it before the draft, after the draft, after he shot 27% in his first two SL games, and I still say it now.

But since we drafted him, I'm hoping for the best. And my main rule with SL is this: If you do well, it's not a guarantee of success in the NBA, but if you struggle, there's a good chance you're going to have a rough rookie season. Since I was already afraid that we blew the 11th pick, I was frustrated to see Law come out and shoot a comined 27% for the first two games, especially since he's a 4-year player with a rep as a scorer.

Now that Law has finally put up some numbers, however, I feel a little more optimistic about him. Is that so wrong? Is that some kind of personal insult to you?

Do I think Law was the best pick all of a sudden? No. Stuckey, the guy I wanted, is two years younger, plus he's bigger, longer, quicker, and more athletic. And he didn't score less than 18 points in a single SL game.

So yeah, based on the SL and my previous opinion, I would rather have Stuckey. But it's too late for that now. According to you, though, I guess I shouldn't be encouraged by anything Law does. Is it my job to criticize him for the rest of his career just because I didn't think he was the best pick?

[JJJJ]

V, all we have heard from the games though is how well Acie has played. Sure, his shot wasnt falling, but even you should know that Acie Law can score. He has proven that way too many times for anybody to doubt that part of his game.

[Peoriabird]

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Good point...I go back and forth way too much.

I think we may just have a pretty deep team this year though.

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This is exactly how I feel! I just get tired of posters taking one or two games out of character for a player that they don't like and criticizing them to no end! Whereas players that they do like are beyond criticism! Smoove is a perfect example of this! this boy can have 5 turnover shoot 1-10 from 3 point land, allow his man to beat him off the dribble most of the game, have 5 rebounds, and miss have of his free throws but yet posters would be buzzing about his 3 blocks! And blaming the point guard for the loss! Go figure!

[DJlaysitup]

I was on the fence on JS, especially during his rookie year. His outside shots were comical. He didn't just miss...he missed the rim.

What he did 2nd half of last year totally changed my opinion though. He took over games.

[Peoriabird]

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What he did 2nd half of last year totally changed my opinion though. He took over games.

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Fair enough but I think that other players on the team deserve that same treatment expecially Marvin! I think that he has earned that right!

[vdunkndunk]

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C'mon now PB...let's not be too critical. Everybody knows that I'm a died-in-the-wool fence sitter. That's what makes summer league games interesting.

Remember, you were a big Patrick O'Bryant backer

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You remembered Ha! I admitted that I was wrong and embraced Shelden once he became a Hawk! And when he does well, I am happy unlike some other posters that continue to hate and purpose trades every other day regardless of the player's progress! And of course every other team's bum is better than everybody on the Hawks except JJ and Smoove. I'm just tired of it!

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By the way, you can support a player and not support management, even if management drafted that player. And you can feel optimistic about the team without feeling confident in management.

What I mean is this: There is finally some reason for optimism now, because the Hawks finally have some talent. But think about it - we've had the number 6 pick, the number 17 pick, the number 2 pick, the number 5 pick, the number 3 pick, and the number 11 pick....all within the last 4 years. And all those guys are still on our roster.

So if we didn't have some young talent on this team, there'd be a major problem, right? But in reality we have surprisingly little to show for all those picks, because we've made a less than optimal choice almost every time, with the exception of Josh Smith and Al Horford.

And that's why we have a top 6 pick year after year.

The funny thing is, I've actually been a huge Hawks homer over the years. And nobody has preached patience more than me. In fact, I used to be a big BK apologist because I've talked with him a number of times and really like him, and I also think he's done some great things...like manage the salary cap and bring us Joe Johnson and Josh Smith and some extra draft picks.

But then we never quite do the right thing with our draft picks. And the fact remains....if we would have made the right choices along the way more often, we would have had reason for optimism a couple of years ago.

That's why the Law pick really bothered me, because after the draft I was left with the feeling that we had squandered the number 11 pick. And Law's first 2 SL games, when compared with Stuckey's performance, did nothing to make me feel better. But now that Law has finally put up some numbers and is getting some good reviews, I'm feeling a little better. Again, is that really so wrong?

[vdunkndunk]

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V, all we have heard from the games though is how well Acie has played. Sure, his shot wasnt falling, but even you should know that Acie Law can score. He has proven that way too many times for anybody to doubt that part of his game.

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He can score in college. But he is he good enough to warrant a ton of shots in the pros? Can he be a bigtime scorer in the pros? And if not, does he have enough pure PG skills to fall back on?

That's what I'm concerned about. The list of great college scorers who don't do well in the pros is huge...it's not unusual at all for a player to dominate in college and turn into a marginal pro.

I mean, just look at Shelden. This guy was a beast as a shotblocker in college - all time ACC leader and nearly 4 blocks a game. But where is that shotblocking now?

I'm not saying Law can't do it, I'm just saying there is good reason for concern. And my concern would only grow if he shot below 30% for the entire SL.

[AtLaS]

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And my concern would only grow if Law shot below 30% for the entire SL.

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After tonight's game, he's now shooting ~42% in the SL. No concern.

[Buzzard]

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After tonight's game, he's now shooting ~42% in the SL. No concern.

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I think we are a bubble playoff team with plenty of depth now. We just have to get Smoove signed up and maybe move chilz in a snt for a pick and a player (expiring contract?).

I like our talent base a lot. We are young and just need to get our team chemistry going strong...

BTW When I say move Chilz, it is under the assumption that our ownership will not extend ( keep) everyone. I would rather keep him than trade him. But between Smoove/Marvin and Chilz it is keep Smoove/Marvin all day long ...