Decision Tree Branches Regarding Horford

[Guest Walter]

I believe that Al Hoford could be a VERY good Pf in this league. However, we likely intend to play him at center and have similar investments at Pf and Sf. WHAT IF Horford demonstrates that he is considerably better at NBA Pf than C as I believe. What then?

I believe we either made:

1) the wrong choice in Horford because he cannot be EXPECTED to play a majority of minutes at NBA center next to a Pf like JS and isn't a player with a high enough upside potential

or

2) we made an arguable choice (assuming we trade Horford or want to play Horford at Pf) depending upon whatever following move we make reguarding our forward glut.

That doesn't mean this drafting decision was entirely wrong, but Horford would have to demonstrate comperable numbers at center vs Pf along with his numbers resulting in better overall team numbers with him at center vs Pf.

If not we would have to trade him (not my preference) or play him at Pf and get equal or greater value for whomever we traded to justify it. Trade example: MW/SW for JO (or JS/cap filler for Gasol...albeit my preference is NOT to trade JS).

Maybe there is another way to look at it. I just see these as the two main decision tree branches.

W

[Swatguy]

The question is moot.

Horford will play as a "Big". At 6'10" he can defend any "so called centers" as well as anyone else on our roster. Offensively he features a mismatch verses any "Big" in the league (potentially). J.O. is trill but brittle. Gasol has defensive limitations and in decline with injuries.

This is not (I keep saying this) PlayStation. The young fellow will eat well on our table.

What are the respective responsibilities of a "center" and/or a "power forward"?

In today's NBA it is all about matchups.

[Nicholasp27]

i disagree with your assumption that he isn't a center

fact 1: he played center for the back-to-back ncaa champs

fact 2: 7' noah played pf next to horford, so horford didn't play center by default for being 'tallest guy on team'

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Quote:

---

I believe that Al Hoford could be a VERY good Pf in this league. However, we likely intend to play him at center and have similar investments at Pf and Sf. WHAT IF Horford demonstrates that he is considerably better at NBA Pf than C as I believe. What then?

I believe we either made:

1) the wrong choice in Horford because he cannot be EXPECTED to play a majority of minutes at NBA center next to a Pf like JS and isn't a player with a high enough upside potential

or

2) we made an arguable choice (assuming we trade Horford or want to play Horford at Pf) depending upon whatever following move we make reguarding our forward glut.

That doesn't mean this drafting decision was entirely wrong, but Horford would have to demonstrate comperable numbers at center vs Pf along with his numbers resulting in better overall team numbers with him at center vs Pf.

If not we would have to trade him (not my preference) or play him at Pf and get equal or greater value for whomever we traded to justify it. Trade example: MW/SW for JO (or JS/cap filler for Gasol...albeit my preference is NOT to trade JS).

Maybe there is another way to look at it. I just see these as the two main decision tree branches.

W

---

No one's preference is to trade Josh Smith. But if Horford is a stud PF, that can't play center, it's Smoove that doesn't have a legit position to go to, especially if he doesn't develop that mid-range jumper.

I addressed this very subject during your "hiatus", but I'll quickly re-visit my position on this again.

If this is the case, then . .

1) Play Smoove at SF, Horford at PF, and either ZaZa or Shelden at C.

2) Play Smoove at C, Horford at PF, and Marvin/Chill at SF

3) Bring Smoove off the bench ( ala Robert Horry ), and play Shell/ZaZa at C, Horford at PF, and Marvin/Chill at SF.

Whomever plays SF needs to be able to knock down the open mid-range jumper. If Smoove still can't do it with consistency, he can't be trusted to play the position.

Smoove at center could work, IF . . we played a lot of zone on defense, and have him be in the high post on offense.

Bringing Smoove off the bench is ONLY an option if BOTH Horford and Marvin are playing very well at the 3 and the 4.

But to start the season, I want to see how the Marvin at the 3, Smoove at the 4, Horford at the 5, lineup works together.

I got a funny feeling though, that either ZaZa or Shelden is going to start at the 5, with Horford coming off the bench. At least initially.

[Guest Walter]

Quote:

---

The question is moot. Horford will play as a "Big".

---

Are you sure you didn't say the same thing about SW last year. I'm so put at ease by your words.

Quote:

---

At 6'10" he can defend any "so called centers" as well as anyone else on our roster.

---

Great, "as well as anyone on our roster" (minus Batista). A 30 win team with no center defensively can only dream of their 3rd overall pick garnering such praise.

I agree in the NBA it's about match-ups, but I disagree that all other things being anywhere near equal, being significantly smaller and shorter at the center position somehow is an advantage, PARTICULARLY when your "power" forward prefers to play and plays like a Sf.

I would like Horford, who I see as a 4.25 (75% Pf, 25% center), next to a 4.5 like Gasol, but next to a 3.5 like JS it just doesn't fly AT ALL.

W

[Guest Walter]

Quote:

---

i disagree with your assumption that he isn't a center

fact 1: he played center for the back-to-back ncaa champs

fact 2: 7' noah played pf next to horford, so horford didn't play center by default for being 'tallest guy on team'

---

...and that is the difference. SW was the center for Duke for 4 years. Get my drift.

W

[Packfill]

I definitely think Horford is a natural/prototype power forward but at the same time I think he will be able to play center.

In the end, someone on the Hawks has to do the dirty work on the inside. Hopefully Horford is willing to do this. If not, then the Hawks will need to think about how everyone fits together.

[exodus]

Nothing has changed since the draft. Some people think Horford can effectively play center. I don't. Ultimately it will be decided on the court.

Not much point in rehashing the same arguments we had a few months ago since we don't have any new info.

[AnakinJoe]

Isn't this the residue of drafting the BPA vs. drafting for need? There was virtually unanimous agreement (among pundits and insiders) that Horford was the 3rd best player in the draft and the single most ready player to contribute. Considering the pre-draft comments from BK, it was clear that we were not interested in drafting a "project".

For all of the cry for getting a center, we have not passed over a center in the draft in the past 3-4 years (please, don't mention POB). The ownership mess means we can't afford a true experienced center (and we're forced to have the youngest and one of the cheapest rosters in the league), therefore, we draft the BPA and play a bunch of guys out of position and hope for the best.

[DJlaysitup]

Especially with jobs on the line this year (Woody's...and maybe BK's), the Hawks starting lineup will be Zaza, JS, MW, JJ, Speedy. The rest of the guys will initially be battling it out for minutes off the bench. Of course as we get further into the season a few things will likely change due to performance and/or injuries. But there will be time to see how Horford does at C/PF before he gets prolonged minutes at either position against the other team's starters.

I just hope BLo is out of the mix entirely now.

Also, there's always the "Woody's Doghouse" factor. Who knows how that works out month-to-month.

[coachx]

It will be interesting to see how things play out with our front court playing time. This is where Woody will prove if he is worthy of being a head coach.

What line up is best for our team ?

That is the important thing. We got the best available center prospect in the draft to upgrade our overall skill level and triple our atheleticsm at the center position.

I see absolutely ZERO evidence that Horford will not be a MUCH better center then ZaZa or Sheldon. I cannot think of one attribute that ZaZa or Sheldon posses that is better then what Horford brings to the tabe. Horford has the heart ZaZa has, with strength close to Sheldon, and athleticsm close to Smoove. Horford is almost a mixture of the best attributes possesed by each of: ZaZa, Sheldon, and Smooth.

Would Hoford be a better PF then Center ? Possibly. Depends on the team make up he is playing on. Would he be a much better player at the PF then he would at C on our team? Doubtful. When comparing this the #'s can lie. Let me give you an example:

Horford would probably get less rebounds at center then PF.

Why is this ?

If Horford plays PF next to ZaZa. There will be plenty of rebounds to be had b/c ZaZa is sunch a poor rebounder (outside of rebounding his own missed lay ups 3 times in a row). Horford would dunk these same balls in the 1st time where ZaZa plays a tap drill 4 times over due to his lack of lift to finish around the basket. If Horford were to start at Center there would be less rebounds to be had. Smith averaged 9 rebounds per game last year and is a much better defensive rebounds then ZaZa simple b/c he has the lift to go up and take the ball.

Horford would also probably score less at center then PF. This would be due more to Marvin being a better offensive weapon then ZaZa or Sheldon then it would have to do with Horford being unable to score at one position over another. Horford's offense would not be needed by the team AS MUCH at the center position.

So the #'s don't tell the whole story. The chemistry and team impact is what is important. So 3 months in the season when Horford has one more rebound a game and 2 more ppg while playing minutes at PF vs. Center......I just ask that you remeber to look at the big picture rather then two individual statistics. Remember the contested shots, transition defense, ability to run the floor, that Horford brings to the table which our other centers simply are not capable of doing.

In my opinion Horford will initially come off the bench with ZaZa starting. After the 1st 5 to 12 games Horford will be too good not to start and get 30 mpg. I do not Horford to earn his starting position.

My opinion is no better then any one elses.

On a side note Walter..........I see the light now. Now that we have Horford......I wish we had taken Roy. Even though Roy is a SG...JJ could easily play SF with his strength. That woudld be a scary team. Ain't hind site a b ! At the time we really needed toughness in the low post. I would have gladly sacrificed that need for a year if we knew Horford would be a Hawk by lucking out in the draft and get the #3 pick.

Something to much on....f JJ would have not been hurt last year we would not have the #3 pick and may have had the 13th or 14th pick instead of #11. Maybe it will all work out for the best in the long run.

[Guest Walter]

Quote:

---

Isn't this the residue of drafting the BPA vs. drafting for need? There was virtually unanimous agreement (among pundits and insiders) that Horford was the 3rd best player in the draft and the single most ready player to contribute.

---

Marvin was described as the "BPA" amongst pundits (whoever they are) in his draft when it was CLEAR he wasn't. In NOBODY'S mind was he the best "Player". In some he was the best "Project". He wasn't! He was the ONLY project. Since Deron and Paul weren't projects, Marvin Williams was the ONLY project available (OPA).

Regarding Horford. I don't think he was but others believe he was the 3rd best player. However, nobody in their right mind translates that to WHEN PLAYED OUT OF THEIR NBA POSITION. He isn't the 3rd best player when asked to play the center position. He certainly wasn't the 3rd best prospect regardless of position and after the MW draft failure and the realization that we as a team have two "stars" that in no way, shape, or form compare to a single, solitary top 10 NBA team's top 2 players last year, we still lack a superstar. This was our last chance to get one. Last chance. Oh well.

Quote:

---

therefore, we draft the BPA and play a bunch of guys out of position and hope for the best.

---

Why don't we draft the best prospect available? We have to "hope for the best" either way. I'd rather have the higher upside seeing how poorly MW has turned out thus far and realizing how far our top 2 players compare to the top 10 team's top 2 players.

Mindy you, THAT WAS NOT THE POINT OF THIS THREAD! I would like to know what is our course should/when the decision tree branching arrive. IF Horford cannot play a majority of time at center effectively NEXT TO JOSH SMITH and/or that does not lead to team success then what next? Trade Horford, trade Smith, trade MW and play JS/Horford at the 3/4? What next?

W

[atlien]

Quote:

---

ZaZa is sunch a poor rebounder (outside of rebounding his own missed lay ups 3 times in a row).

---

Maybe true, but NOONE can do this as effectively as our boy Zaza.

[atlien]

Quote:

---

This was our last chance to get one. Last chance.

---

And thank god we got Horford and not some overhyped Chinese dude like Yi Jianlin

[coachx]

Quote:

---

Mindy you, THAT WAS NOT THE POINT OF THIS THREAD! I would like to know what is our course should/when the decision tree branching arrive. IF Horford cannot play a majority of time at center effectively NEXT TO JOSH SMITH and/or that does not lead to team success then what next? Trade Horford, trade Smith, trade MW and play JS/Horford at the 3/4? What next?

W

---

I do not see Horford being a less effective NBA center then ZaZa or Sheldon.

But to answer your question, if the #3 pick, Horford, is less effective then ZaZa at center, (which is almost impossible)and better then Smoove at PF, (doubtful),I'd keep Smoove in the starting line up at SF over Marvin. I know Smoove has better #'s at PF then SF but this is still what I would do given this hypothetical scenerio.

I repeat...I do not see this happening.

On a side note W, you were missed around here. While your opinions are not alwayse shared they are alwayse well thought out.

[coachx]

quote]

And thank god we got Horford and not some overhyped Chinese dude like Yi Jianlin

---

Agreed Horford is gifted. He has the mean/ nasty streak in him you love to see in a big man while still having very good atheltic ability to capitialize and maximize that mean streak he possesses.

So many bigs either have a mean streak with no skill (ZaZa, Pryzbilla, Batista), or athletic ability with no mean streak (Curry, , J. O'Niel, Gasol, Aldridge, ect.

Horford has them both. To me that is more important then if he is 6'10'' or 6'11''.

[thesheedera]

While it's ideal that your SF can hit a mid range jumper it's not essential to the position. If Horford shows that he's our best PF fit and can't play C (which I think is flawed reasoning from the beginning), Smith is our SF. Marvin would need to really blow up by either getting close to 20 ppg, improving his FG % dramatically, or by becoming a beast on the boards or on defense, in order to keep Smith out of the lineup.

Smith has a lot of flaws, but you can't take him off the floor for too long if you want to win games. Not only does he do things now that very few players can and will do, but our franchise needs to make him a cornerstone without any hesitation (make sure you resign hit at the right number, but make sure you resign him) and he needs to get as much pt as possible to keep him on his path.

Mid range jumper is important, but I'd accept that loss in order to gain everything he brings no matter what position he plays on the floor.

[TheDude]

as long as players like amare stoudamire succeed in the league at the center position, then i have no problems with horford playing center.

[Iman]

Due largely to getting lucky in the lottery last year, we are now an extremely deep team. The key now will be to figure out how to make a team outta these players and who we need to deal for other assets. Even if all these players do fit well together we would still need to move a player or two before extending them or else we'll have too many overpaid bench players. I assume we'll finally move a swing player or two and maybe a bigman to finally get us a better center. Hopefully all our young players will play well this year so they'll have better trade value. Probably the only reason we won't move for a center will be if Horford does end up dominating there.

I see us keeping JSmoove barring someone offers us a DHoward type player for him. Chillz, ZaZa, Marvin, then Shelden will be our next more trade worthy players that we'll either have to extend or move (Salim probably isn't worth mentioning). If we don't feel our team is working, the combination of a couple of those players should be pretty valuable.

I don't think I'd bench Marvin so I could slide Horford in at PF even if that's his best position since that just puts ZaZa or Shelden on the floor in place of Marvin. I'd try to move those players to get something back first. JSmoove at SF works fine in my mind as long as we're using a shooter like Acie or Lue at PG, not with Speedy.

In my mind though, most of this won't be necessary, Horford will work at center. Up until the Amare deal came up, I was in the draft Yi camp. Then when I saw what we would have given up I started thinking more about Horford. In todays game players the size of DHoward and Amare dominate at center. At times they play with other bigmen but often they play with someone less effective than JSmoove in the post. Plus we are pretty large at SF and SG with Marvin and JJ. That leaves Chillz, Zaza, and Shelden as players that we'll probably have to move unless we can get them signed cheaper than expected.

[exodus]

Quote:

---

as long as players like amare stoudamire succeed in the league at the center position, then i have no problems with horford playing center.

---

Sure. We just need to hope that

1 Horford becomes 1st team All-NBA

2 We get an MVP pg

3 We get a coach who is committed to an uptempo system

Then we can lose in the conference finals, just like the Suns.