Evaluating Joe Johnson (very long)

[Hatertots]

In the few and far between places where we Atlanta Hawks fans huddle in misery and (quietly) discuss the (mis)fortunes of our beloved team, a storm of whispers rages between two factions over slumping Hawks shooting guard Joe Johnson.

Some in the “Go, Joe, Go!” camp have held Johnson up as a dynamic offensive playmaker and the most potent Atlanta scoring threat since the Human Highlight Reel rocked the Omni. Meanwhile, the “No, Joe, No!” faction claims that he’s just a glorified jump shooter, not even the next Jason Terry, let alone the next Dominique.

As the debate continues, whenever, wherever, however, you can bet your subprime mortgaged house that one or more of the following theories will be offered up to explain why Joe’s game elicits as many cries of “whoa!” as cries of woe:

“Joe gets double teamed constantly because none of his teammates is a credible offensive threat! If he played on a team with a real point guard or another player who could score…”

“Everyone looks bad in Woodson’s junky offense! If Joe played in a better system…”

“Joe plays so many minutes every night that he just wears down! If Woodson wouldn’t run Joe into the ground 40 minutes a night…”

On the surface, all three of these theories seem quite plausible. In fact, I woke up this morning agreeing with all three of them. But, luckily, I also woke up this morning needing to write my Latin American studies term paper on democratic consolidation in El Salvador (fascinating country, by the by), which means I had plenty of time to do some research into Joe Johnson’s career numbers and write this overly long post about it.

Before going any farther, let me say that I’m a basketball fan who comes from the Church of Stats, and I believe that boxscore data (when you have enough of it) can tell you a great deal about a player. Sometimes the stats tell you what you already know, like Dwight Howard is a freight train, and sometimes it surprises you, like Carmelo Anthony is just an average small forward. Cases like the former don’t really interest me; I already thought that Dwight was amazing. But cases like the latter intrigue me because they’re surprising.

Now plenty of people don’t think statistics have anything valuable to say about basketball. Some of them don’t like statistics because (they claim) they were a four year starter at Duke and now coach women’s basketball at a Division II school. Their intuition regarding all things that combine leather spheroids with athletes of unusual stature has reached a level bordering on Zen enlightenment. When a tree falls in the forest these are the people who know which player didn’t rotate fast enough on defense. Still others don’t like statistics because (I suspect) they’re holding a grudge against a lousy math teacher. Take heart; he or she is probably dead by now.

If you’re one of these people who don’t believe in statistics, that’s fine, but this post probably isn’t your tall boy of PBR. I’m not going to go to great lengths to try and change your mind. I’m all for agreeing to disagree. But if you do decide to stick it out with me through all my talky-talk, I’d like to say thanks and I hope you’ll read it with an open mind. After all, humanity has survived the knowledge that the Earth goes around the sun, that we all live in a gigantic energy soup regardless of what our senses tell us, and that an improbable number of American girls love Hannah Montana (I think it’s because it rhymes). Would it really be so shocking if Joe Johnson is only an average shooting guard? At least he’ll have ‘Melo to keep him company.

Okay, finally, let’s get to it. David Berri’s research into sports economics has led him to make the following two observations about basketball:

The performance of basketball players is very consistent from season to season.

Winning in basketball is almost entirely a measure of player performance.

These seem like simple, almost stupidly obvious points to make, but these conclusions lead to two inferences:

If a player’s performance is consistent from season to season, even after moving to a new team, then player performance is independent of teammate performance. Teams win more by adding better players, not because new players make their old players better.

If winning is all about your players, who perform consistently season to season, team to team, then things like coaches and systems don’t really have the impact that you’d imagine they do based on the media attention they receive.

So Berri and conventional wisdom are running in opposite directions. Obviously. But do teammates and coaches matter? For the purposes of evaluating Berri’s arguments, I can think of no better case than that of Joe Johnson. His former team, the Phoenix Suns, is a fast-paced scoring machine loaded with talents like Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamire, and Shawn Marion, All-Star caliber players who contend for titles. The Atlanta Hawks, on the other hand, have no players other than Joe Johnson to ever appear in an All-Star game. They achieve new records in futility running an offensive scheme notable for the many ill-advised shots it produces. Let’s take a look at Joe’s last two seasons in Phoenix and his first two in Atlanta, all the seasons in which he’s averaged 40 minutes a game and played at least half the season.

Joe Johnson Career Stats

2003-04 Win Score average: 3.95

2004-05 Win Score average: 6.90

2005-06 Win Score average: 5.60

2006-07 Win Score average: 5.75

You’re probably familiar with every stat here except Win Score, which is one of the performance measures Berri has helped develop, and it ties player production to the generation of team victories. It’s calculated using this formula:

PTS + REB +STL + (BLK/2) + (AST/2) – FGA – (FTA/2) – TO – PF

It’s not really necessary, however, to understand anything at all about Berri’s model of performance evaluation to see if Joe was a better player when he played with the Suns. By and large, his averages over the last four remained fairly consistent. He hit around 45% of his shots, got about one steal per game, saw a slight increase with regard to turnovers and assists after he came to Atlanta, a slight decrease in rebounds, and more shots and points. So just looking at boxscore stats, it seems Joe’s stats have fluctuated slightly since signing with the Hawks, some stats up and some down each year, but on the whole Joe Johnson has been pretty much the same player in Atlanta that he was in Phoenix.

In terms of Win Score, Joe’s most productive season came in 2004-05, when he posted an average of 6.90. In that season, Joe hit nearly half of his shots from beyond the arc, which is amazing. It’s also something he hasn’t accomplished before or since. In fact, the closest he’s come is hitting 38% of his threes, nearly ten percent less. So in his last season with the Suns, Joe was much improved at knocking it down from long range, but was he a better player? What is the difference between an average Win Score of 6.90 and the 5.60 he posted the following year with the Hawks? The answer is ‘not much.’ It’s a difference of about 1.3 rebounds per game, or points per game, or turnovers per game or any combination thereof. As a Suns player, Joe grabbed a few more rebounds and turned the ball over about one fewer times per game. With the Hawks, he shot more, scored more, and assisted more. On the whole, it’s basically a wash. It’s even closer when you evaluate Joe on more than just his best season with Phoenix. He posted an average Win Score per game of 5.425 in Phoenix and an average of 5.675 in Atlanta. Very, very close.

“Joe gets double teamed constantly because none of his teammates is a credible offensive threat! If he played on a team with a real point guard or another player who could score…”

“Everyone looks bad in Woodson’s junky offense! If Joe played in a better system…”

“Joe plays so many minutes every night that he just wears down! If Woodson wouldn’t run Joe into the ground 40 minutes a night…”

So would Joe Johnson be a better player if he could play in a better offensive system? Would his game elevate if he were paired with other stars, particularly a star point guard, who would keep him from seeing the double teams that have hindered his offensive capabilities since coming to Atlanta? Is Woodson moronically playing JJ into early retirement with these 40 minute nights?

The historical evidence seems to suggest that Joe didn’t exactly blossom like the morning lotus playing up-tempo basketball alongside an All-Star cast headed by two time MVP point guard Steve Nash. He also averaged about 40 minutes a game sprinting his ass off out in the desert, so he can probably handle the 40 minutes of ballroom waltzing Woodson asks of him each night.

There’s still the possibility that Joe actually has vastly improved during his time in Atlanta but the lousy play of his teammates is holding him back, that he really is “a jewel in a landfill” as Jeff Schultz of the AJC so delicately put it. But I’m dubious. Last season, Joe played in 57 games before he sustained a calf injury and missed the final 21 games. Over that time, the Hawks were 8-13, winning 38% of their games. Over the entire season, the Hawks only won 36.6% of their games. Pretty close. So why didn’t the landfill absolutely stink up the joint in the absence of the jewel? Why is KG almost exactly the same elemental force in Boston that he was with a cast of castoffs in Minnesota? Why will Lebron James be the same player with a bunch of losers in New York that he is with Eric Snow ‘n the Gang in Cleveland?

I’m betting it’s because player performance doesn’t seem to depend on much other than the skill of the player and sadly, Joe Johnson might just be an average shooting guard making max money. However, that might only be the second saddest thing I’m going to write, because I just threw up a little on the inside thinking that Steve Belkin might have had a point.

[Buzzard]

Quote:

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Joe Johnson might just be an average shooting guard making max money.

2004-05 Win Score average: 6.90

2005-06 Win Score average: 5.60

2006-07 Win Score average: 5.75

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So you are saying these are average win scores. Just curious, how many and which shooting guards rate higher than Joe?

[TroyMcClure]

I'm glad you are here hatertots. I'm not as into stats as many around here. I don't discount them entirely, though.

Quote:

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When a tree falls in the forest these are the people who know which player didn’t rotate fast enough on defense.

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Good stuff.

What you've said makes a lot of sense. It's the conclusion many of us have come to. That's why he's almost literally begging for some help, imo.

Quote:

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sadly, Joe Johnson might just be an average shooting guard making max money. However, that might only be the second saddest thing I’m going to write, because I just threw up a little on the inside thinking that Steve Belkin might have had a point.

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If you look at their track record, it's hard to side with any decision the ASG has made.

[Guest]

Have you read The Wages of Wins yet? It is also by Dave Berri but he creates Wins Produced after regressing many variables on wins over a large period of time. I believe Win Score and Wins Produced are ~90% correlated, but he feels Wins Produced is the stronger statistic. If you enjoy stats then you will definitely enjoy his book and blog

http://dberri.wordpress.com/

But getting back on the topic of Joe, statistically he is a slightly above average SG. A team of all average players will produce 41 wins, so saying "average" is clearly not a bad thing, its not a great thing either.

As for the "making teammates better" argument, I do not think going by Wins Produced is a way to measure making someone better. Example, putting Nash on the Suns will make JJ a more efficient player in terms of scoring but it will take away from his assists. So you have certain trade-offs that occur when you add a player to your team that makes them better. I wish I could think some more about this topic and give a better evaluation on what would be a better way of measuring a players impact on making others around them better, but I've got finals to study for and I don't want to get that distracted.

[Hatertots]

Based on data taken from the 1993-94 through the 2004-05 seasons, the average NBA shooting guard posted a per 48 minutes win score of 6.1. Per 48 minutes played, Joe posted scores of approximately 8.28 in 2004-05, 6.72 in 05-06, and 6.9 in 06-07.

In 06-07:

Kobe Bryant's win score per 48 was 11.29

Dwayne Wade posted a 11.49 mark per 48.

Ben Gordon posted a 5.30

Rip Hamilton posted a 5.80

Ray Allen posted an 8.20

I just picked a few out, I don't know which SG were better or worse than Joe, but here's a site with all the scores calculated if you wanna check it out.

[hawkman]

Maybe we ruled out that whole Iverson thing a little too quickly a few seasons ago. I hate to bring it up but the guy actually WANTED to come here and Philly pretty much conceded that they weren't going to get equal value in return. They just wanted some of our young talent at the time, particularly Marvin, who everyone maintained at that time was too valuable because of his "star" potential. It seems like hindsight, but I thought that Iverson would fit perfectly with a player like Joe and an offensively challenged coach like Woodson. It was predicted that Iverson would be able to change his game and that maybe he wasn't as selfish as he was made out to be in Philly, and sure enough he fits in great in Denver. I can only imagine the excitement he would've brought to this team and city. It's all moot now so I'll just leave it alone. Please don't take this as a stab at the current Hawks, but it seems appropriate considering the thread topic.

[Hatertots]

Hawksfanatic, I've been reading his blog for about half a year or so now, but I haven't read the book yet. Now that the semester is winding down I'm going to give it a go.

I agree that the wins produced stat is a stronger indicator of player performance than win score, but like you said it involves more advanced statistical techniques. If I recall correctly, however, wins produced also indicates that Joe is slightly above average (I think a wins produced per 48 of .115). As you also said, it's not bad (or good) to be average, especially at the level of the NBA.

[prolific25]

You would seriously still give up Marvin for Iverson knowing the garbage that the 76ers for in return? Philly ended up with Andre Miller(who Philly fans want to trade for our bust Shelden) and Jason Smith who is a decent project big man.

[Buzzard]

Quote:

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Based on data taken from the 1993-94 through the 2004-05 seasons, the average NBA shooting guard posted a per 48 minutes win score of 6.1. Per 48 minutes played, Joe posted scores of approximately 8.28 in 2004-05, 6.72 in 05-06, and 6.9 in 06-07.

In 06-07:

Kobe Bryant's win score per 48 was 11.29

Dwayne Wade posted a 11.49 mark per 48.

Ben Gordon posted a 5.30

Rip Hamilton posted a 5.80

Ray Allen posted an 8.20

I just picked a few out, I don't know which SG were better or worse than Joe, but

here's

a site with all the scores calculated if you wanna check it out.

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This is good info. As expected, Joe is not as good as Dwayne Wade or Kobe; but he is better than Rip. I would say he is above average (better than Rip) but not a superstar like Wade or Kobe. I can live with that...

[hawkman]

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You would seriously still give up Marvin for Iverson knowing the garbage that the 76ers for in return? Philly ended up with Andre Miller(who Philly fans want to trade for our bust Shelden) and Jason Smith who is a decent project big man.

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Heck yeah! Marv is a nice player and a nice guy but let's get real here. Are we serious about winning here or what? Can you imagine a backcourt with JJ and Iverson? It's obvious that JJ needs some help and he doesn't seem too keen on waiting on a young player to grow into being that second offensive threat.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

To me, JJ hs always been comparable to Paul Pierce. And they are both guys who are totally underappreciated by most of their fan bases. To this day, Al Harrington is the best player to play alongside JJ here in Atlanta. And people wonder why he wants some help? For Pierce, that player was Antoine Waker. But at least Toine made an All-star team.

Both JJ and Pierce are multi-taleted. Both can effectively play 3 positons. Both are usually the top playmaker ob the team. Both have been unfairly blamed for their teams' woes, almost solely because their fan bases expect them to be top level superstars that can overcome flawed, inexperienced, or awful talent.

In the NBA, most winning teams have 2 star caliber players, and a very good #3 player. And most of those teams can beat you from the inside and from the outside. If your team doesn't have these elements, you better have a well balanced team with about 8 players, who play well on both ends of the court.

The one superstar + average guy teams, will tend to be wildly inconsistent. Ask Kobe.

[Swatguy]

The formula to win in the NBA no mystery. You Have to Have the Horses. JJ is one, he needs two others to step up. Quite frankly we don't have the horses.

Joe asked to be "The Man" but it doesn't seem as if he now wants to "Be The Man" by himself anymore. Gotta make a deal.

Interestingly, Hatertot's reserch suggest, the problem ain't Woody for any/every coach without horses can't win.

[Swatguy]

Quote:

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Maybe we ruled out that whole Iverson thing a little too quickly a few seasons ago. I hate to bring it up but the guy actually WANTED to come here and Philly pretty much conceded that they weren't going to get equal value in return. They just wanted some of our young talent at the time, particularly Marvin, who everyone maintained at that time was too valuable because of his "star" potential. It seems like hindsight, but I thought that Iverson would fit perfectly with a player like Joe and an offensively challenged coach like Woodson. It was predicted that Iverson would be able to change his game and that maybe he wasn't as selfish as he was made out to be in Philly, and sure enough he fits in great in Denver. I can only imagine the excitement he would've brought to this team and city. It's all moot now so I'll just leave it alone. Please don't take this as a stab at the current Hawks, but it seems appropriate considering the thread topic.

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Yes we should have gotten Iverson last year and Jarvis Hayes last summer.

[Nicholasp27]

making a move for an aging star last summer woulda been jumping the gun

we wouldn't have horford right now had we done that (or law if we had given indy's pick as part of that trade)

NOW is the time to start CONSIDERING those kinds of moves...we have no more draft capital and shouldn't have a high pick next year as we should be in the playoffs even without a move

so at this point, we don't lose that future draft capital if we make a big trade

however, we still need to wait to make a big move since we don't know what we are working with fully yet due to bad coach and young team

if u believe that law/marvin/smoove/horford will all improve and mature, then we are set except for backup pg/backup center...if u believe at least one of shelden/zaza/solo can be an effective backup center for us, then we are set there as well

so all we really need is another pg (assuming speedy won't get healthy and aj/lue aren't good enough) to play with law

we also have our role players in slim and mario to round out the lineup along with our 6th-man-of-the-year JChill

people say we need more perimeter shooting, so perhaps the pg we bring in to backup law should have a decent outside shot? then we just need to have better coaching and play slim more as well

so we need a backup pg, and our assets to get that are:

aj/lue/lo (expirings)

shelden or zaza (zaza has higher trade value and isn't as good of a defender/rebounder as shelden, so he's likely the one to go)

so mostly bk needs to be on the phone trying to find a decent 15-20mpg pg that he can grab with the above pieces

if at deadline philly thinks they can't make playoffs and wants to save money, then our expirings + shelden or zaza may look decent to them for dre miller if other teams don't step up...otherwise, look to players like blake/jack/rodriguez on the pg-stacked portland team or ridnour/watson/etc

dallas also has 3 pgs with harris/terry/barea, tho i don't see what we have to offer being of any interest to them; but maybe a 3-way

bk should also be scouting coaches for this summer, cause we aren't getting a new outside coach this season...but he needs to bring in the right one this summer

[DJlaysitup]

Excellent original post Hatertots...dumb the language down some and you can write for ESPN.