Smith and Childress aren't only futures @ stake

[khaos7]

It's reasonable to believe that whatever decision is made on Smith and/or Childress will impact Marvin Williams' future with this team. Simply put, if the Hawks choose to keep both of the Joshes, Marvin has to be the odd man out, especially considering they will have to work on retaining Horford later on.

Although I could have said it last year with us holding two lottery picks,I believe this is one of the most crucial times in this organization's life.

If you decide to keep Marvin, you've got to try to sign and trade one of the Joshes. If you decide the Joshes are the way to go, you've got to find the best trade option for Marvin. Simply put, there is no way you can sign Smith, Childress, Williams, and Horford to long term deals, unless you are willing to pay the luxury tax (which the Spirit doesn't seem inclined to do). In addition, that impacts whether we extend JJ and the bench.

The economics work against keeping all of these guys together. Horford seems to be a lock. We can assume that the team wants to keep Joe around. Therefore, we will have to dip into our abundance and let one or two of the guys I just mentioned go.

We'll see if Sund will exhibit the same magic he showed in the Ray Allen/Gary Payton trade or miss like he did in many of the past Sonics' drafts.

[coachx]

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If you decide to keep Marvin, you've got to try to sign and trade one of the Joshes. If you decide the Joshes are the way to go, you've got to find the best trade option for Marvin. Simply put, there is

no way

you can sign Smith, Childress, Williams, and Horford to long term deals, unless you are willing to pay the luxury tax (which the Spirit doesn't seem inclined to do). In addition, that impacts whether we extend JJ and the bench.

The economics work against keeping all of these guys together. Horford seems to be a lock. We can

assume

that the team wants to keep Joe around. Therefore, we will have to dip into our abundance and let one or two of the guys I just mentioned go.

We'll see if Sund will exhibit the same magic he showed in the Ray Allen/Gary Payton trade or miss like he did in many of the past Sonics' drafts.

This could play out just as you said.

Can Bibby and Marvin get us a star from an underachieving team looking for salary cap relief closer to the deadline while still providing a little cap relief ? Another Ray Allen / Gary Payton swap would be SWEET !

[Zone034life]

Your post is exactly how I feel. I have been trying to tell people this for the longest. All they say in return is that Marvin doesn't have to be decided on right now. That is correct but may hinder this franchise. If the Hawks go into next season with both joshes, Marvin and Bibby they are saying whomever plays the best will make it past the trading deadline still a hawk. Maybe minus Smoove on that list, the other players in Bibby, Marvin and chillz have to show they are worth the investment of retaining. Why decide on Marvin now? Because you may not get as much for him at the deadline as you can right now. MArvin could be the chip that got this team a very good veteran combined with Bibby's or Speedy's contract. I would love a Redd,T.Prince, B.Davis in a Hawks uniform next season.

[NJHAWK]

Al Horford still has 3 years left before we have to worry about his deal. In those three years the luxury tax should go UP about 9 mil. The estimate Luxury tax for this season will be 69 mil but it could be higher. Lets just say it will go up 3 mil from this years 67 mil. That leaves this years tax at a flat 70 million dollars. Add the 9 mil for the 3 seasons still on Horfords deal and the luxury tax should be around 79-80 million dollars by the time we have to worry about it with Horford. We should easily be able to sign him without going into the luxury tax. The real worry will be how much JJ is going to be worth by then.

[DJ_Money]

Just to note...I don't think I've heard anyone hear mention the idea of singing Marvin to an extension this summer.

If you can find a SNT partner for Childress with an emerging player on a rookie deal, do you make that trade then try to get Marvin on a reasonable contract this summer?

Just a thought...

[khaos7]

It really boils down to who the team values the most. Note, other teams know that if we resign Childress and Smith, the Hawks can't afford to do the same with Williams, with Horford's extention looming and Joe's contract coming to a conclusion. That may harm Williams' trade value because teams know we're trying to get rid of him for economic purposes and won't offer us much...unless you find a team that is in love with him. The reason the same theory doesn't apply to the Joshes is their decisions will serve as the impetus for all other decisions to come. If we keep Marvin and both Joshe's have been resigned, it will be harder to do a sign and trade when when Marvin becomes a RFA because of the money we've already got tied to Smith and Childress. Therefore, either we trade Williams this year and keep the Joshes or sign and trade Smith or Childress and keep Marvin.

[coachx]

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Just to note...I don't think I've heard anyone hear mention the idea of singing Marvin to an extension this summer.

If you can find a SNT partner for Childress with an emerging player on a rookie deal, do you make that trade then try to get Marvin on a reasonable contract this summer?

Just a thought...

That is a good thought.

Only if Chillz walks in FA or is traded in a sign a trade would Marvin getting an early extension be possible. But even then your banking on Smith and Marvin working together for a long time before Sund even sees them play together in person.

For a team without picks, Sund still has so many directions he could go in right now its not even funny.

1. When or if to trade Marvin

2. Resign Chillz or sign trade or just let him walk

3. Target David Andserson or another big or just stick with ZaZa

4. Smith resigning

5. When or if to trade Bibby now or preferabally at the trade deadline if Law proves himself

Each of those 5 points have 2 or 3 variables each !

Time for Sund to go to work ! Will he keep everything the same or try to roll the dice a little bit ?

[khaos7]

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Just to note...I don't think I've heard anyone hear mention the idea of singing Marvin to an extension this summer.

If you can find a SNT partner for Childress with an emerging player on a rookie deal, do you make that trade then try to get Marvin on a reasonable contract this summer?

Just a thought...

That is a good thought.

Only if Chillz walks in FA or is traded in a sign a trade would Marvin getting an early extension be possible. But even then your banking on Smith and Marvin working together for a long time before Sund even sees them play together in person.

For a team without picks, Sund still has so many directions he could go in right now its not even funny.

1. When or if to trade Marvin

2. Resign Chillz or sign trade or just let him walk

3. Target David Andserson or another big or just stick with ZaZa

4. Smith resigning

5. When or if to trade Bibby now or preferabally at the trade deadline of Law proves himself

Each of those 5 points have 2 or 3 variables each !

Time for Sund to go to work ! Will he keep everything the same or try to roll the dice a little bit ?

You're right! This is where Sund earns his keep.

[coachx]

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It really boils down to who the team values the most. Note, other teams know that if we resign Childress and Smith, the Hawks can't afford to do the same with Williams, with Horford's extention looming

and

Joe's contract coming to a conclusion. That may harm Williams' trade value because teams know we're trying to get rid of him for economic purposes and won't offer us much...unless you find a team that is in love with him. The reason the same theory doesn't apply to the Joshes is their decisions will serve as the impetus for all other decisions to come. If we keep Marvin and both Joshe's have been resigned, it will be harder to do a sign and trade when when Marvin becomes a RFA because of the money we've already got tied to Smith and Childress. Therefore, either we trade Williams this year and keep the Joshes or sign and trade Smith or Childress and keep Marvin.

Maybe true...... But who has 2 expiring contract as valuable as Bibby as Marvin ? One still has upside as a 22 year old scorer and the other is a proven veteran that gives you some serious cap relief. Those are the 2 things most teams want back when they are cutting payroll by trading a solid / border line star veteran.

If a team wants to cut payroll they may not be a better offer out there then Bibby and Marvin no matter what our own situation is with "having" to trade certain players with other team's knowing it.

I could see Marvin going to Minnesota, Miwualkee, or even NJ and averaging 20 ppg for a bad team. That is the best way for him to develop his scoring skills. If he continues to be the 3rd or 4th option in Atlanta I fear his scoring potential will never get developed.

[jezmund]

I like the Bibby/Marvin for all-star / emerging star route.

[khaos7]

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It really boils down to who the team values the most. Note, other teams know that if we resign Childress and Smith, the Hawks can't afford to do the same with Williams, with Horford's extention looming

and

Joe's contract coming to a conclusion. That may harm Williams' trade value because teams know we're trying to get rid of him for economic purposes and won't offer us much...unless you find a team that is in love with him. The reason the same theory doesn't apply to the Joshes is their decisions will serve as the impetus for all other decisions to come. If we keep Marvin and both Joshe's have been resigned, it will be harder to do a sign and trade when when Marvin becomes a RFA because of the money we've already got tied to Smith and Childress. Therefore, either we trade Williams this year and keep the Joshes or sign and trade Smith or Childress and keep Marvin.

Maybe true...... But who has 2 expiring contract as valuable as Bibby as Marvin ? One still has upside as a 22 year old scorer and the other is a proven veteran that gives you some serious cap relief. Those are the 2 things most teams want back when they are cutting payroll by trading a solid / border line star veteran.

If a team wants to cut payroll they may not be a better offer out there then Bibby and Marvin no matter what our own situation is with "having" to trade certain players with other team's knowing it.

I could see Marvin going to Minnesota, Miwualkee, or even NJ and averaging 20 ppg for a bad team. That is the best way for him to develop his scoring skills. If he continues to be the 3rd or 4th option in Atlanta I fear his scoring potential will never get developed.

This may be true. Again, I pray Sund figures this out where it benefits the Hawks for years to come. What we do this offseason will impact more than just the upcoming season.

[Iman]

It's always in our best interest to look for a trade for one of our swing players. However, I just don't see our salary situation becoming a problem until we have to extend Horford and Acie.

This offseason is simple, the market sets the value for Smoove, Chillz knows he's a role player and will take an appropriate contract. Those contracts combined shouldn't amount to much more than will be coming off the books with Bibby. That will leave plenty of money to resign Marvin.

Speedy and Zaza will be gone before we have to extend Horford and it wouldn't surprise me if we move JJ around that time. JJ is a great young player but he seems to already be loosing some athleticism. As our other players improve, we probably will be better served to find a cheaper guard.

[Guest]

You guys overvalue what our players will be paid. I don't see this as a major problem as most on this board do.

You also have to look, what can others pay for our Restricted Free Agents. There is not much more than the MLE out there. I imagine we have the policy of go find yourself the best offer out there for you and we will match it.

[khaos7]

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You guys overvalue what our players will be paid. I don't see this as a major problem as most on this board do.

You also have to look, what can others pay for our Restricted Free Agents. There is not much more than the MLE out there. I imagine we have the policy of go find yourself the best offer out there for you and we will match it.

I disagree. It isn't so much overvaluing what our players will be offered by other teams, but, in combination, how much all other salaries collectively will impact us. We're dealing with a finite amount of money. And although these guys won't be maxed out, they will receive raises. That's a definite. So hypothetically speaking, if we extend both Josh's, you have less money under the cap. That's just a simple reality.

Do the math. Couple extentions with FA signings and you're going to be tight underneath the cap. We all want cheap free agents. However, usually it's the championship contending teams thats able to lure FA's, that can make a noticable impact on the court, to their teams for the cheap. An example? Posey noticed Garnett and Allen where going to the Celtics and bought in...for a cheap contract. If we want to have a balanced roster, I doubt we can keep everybody.

[Guest]

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So hypothetically speaking, if we extend both Josh's, you have less money under the cap. That's just a simple reality.

Being under the cap is irrelevant to what you were originally speaking about, which was the Luxury Tax. If you want to say we lose cap space then of course we do, we are essentially over the cap right now with all of our capholds and when we do resign our players/bring over Andersen we will be over the cap.

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Do the math. Couple extentions with FA signings and you're going to be tight underneath the cap. We all want cheap free agents. However, usually it's the championship contending teams thats able to lure FA's, that can make a noticable impact on the court, to their teams for the cheap. An example? Posey noticed Garnett and Allen where going to the Celtics and bought in...for a cheap contract. If we want to have a balanced roster, I doubt we can keep everybody.

I have, and we won't be in some sort of a crisis that you are talking about. You also need to realize the Salary Cap and Luxury Tax are not static, they will more than likely increase throughout time like it has for every year except the lock-out season.

[exodus]

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You guys overvalue what our players

will

be paid. I don't see this as a major problem as most on this board do.

You also have to look, what can others pay for our Restricted Free Agents. There is not much more than the MLE out there. I imagine we have the policy of go find yourself the best offer out there for you and we will match it.

I agree with your point that the market will be tough for RFAs. That is why i wasn't worried about the fact that the Hawks didn't resign Smith last summer.

But i wouldn't be so definitive about what they will actually be paid. Might be better to say what they deserve to be paid.

[Traceman]

Resigning Marvin will not be an issue if we desire to keep him. Actually, I think our cap situation will be BETTER next year with both Bibby and Zaza expiring.

In addition, if we resign Marvin next year, unless he gets a LOT better, his starting salary likely won't be any more than his qualifying offer next year ($7.35M). If his starting salary IS more than that, it means he had a great season, that he has turned the corner as a player and we will want to keep him.

[Guest]

Oh what I believe they are deserved to be paid is completely different what they will get. I would base off of Wins Produced (Dave Berri's measure) and some sort of a marketability measure.

What both Joshes should be making is less than what they will make which is less than what the majority on the Squawk probably think they make. Either they are overvalueing what they will make or they don't have any idea about our cap situation or the nature of the Salary Cap.

[Packfill]

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Resigning Marvin will not be an issue if we desire to keep him. Actually, I think our cap situation will be BETTER next year with both Bibby and Zaza expiring.

In addition, if we resign Marvin next year, unless he gets a LOT better, his starting salary likely won't be any more than his qualifying offer next year ($7.35M). If his starting salary IS more than that, it means he had a great season, that he has turned the corner as a player and we will want to keep him.

I think the one potential issue regarding cap space for the Hawks going forward is if Law does not step up and show he is capable of leading the team as the starting point guard after next season. In that scenario, the Hawks need to spend money on getting a starting point guard.

[Traceman]

Bibby's $15M a season for a starting PG. We should be able to get a quality PG for $10M a season or less from SOMEWHERE.