Josh Smith Predicament

Hawk88 · July 17, 2008

Looks like Josh Smith is in the same position that he was on draft night and I can't help but think it's a good situation for the Hawks.

Jay Bilas called Josh Smith the most likely bust of his draft passed over my 17 or 18 clubs. He proved Bilas wrong.

Now he is a free agent and it doesn't seem like other teams are willing to work deals to clear space for Smooth. It's not that they don't want him but not bad enough to pay him big bucks. Great for the Hawks, now Josh will have to earn more respect after he signs this contract.

I thought it was interesting a while back when it was posted on the board, who do you prefer Josh Smith or Al Horford. Well, is there any doubt that just about every team in the league would be trying to work out a deal to sign Horford.

But in the long run I hope this works out well for Josh Smith and the Hawks.

On another note, the guy I think the Hawks need is Shane Battier, tough D, leader and experienced. Could we move Marvin for Battier?

Hawk88

coachx · July 17, 2008

Be careful...the Smith "nut-huggers" are going to call you a Smith hater b/c you don't want to throw him a "fair" $70-$75 mill contract to sign him ASAP.......LOL

I agree with you though. The Hawks have him right where they want him. I hope a deal gets done.

AnakinJoe · July 17, 2008

I just heard a report on ESPN that the Spurs are buying out the contracts of Duncan, Ginobli and Parker so that they can sign Josh Smith to an unprecedented $30M/year contract. Stupid Hawks, I knew that we were under-valuing Josh Smith. See? The best organization in basketball recognizes his potential. Did you know? He's only 22.

exodus · July 17, 2008

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Well, is there any doubt that just about every team in the league would be trying to work out a deal to sign Horford.

First of all Horford has 3 years left on his rookie deal. If teams were had to pay $12 million/yr or more to get him they might not be so enthusiastic.

Also there probably are many teams that want Smith but they are over the cap and the Hawks are in the drivers seat in any trade discussions which are complicated by Smiths BYC status. Philly obviously liked Smith but they liked Brand more. The Clipps did too but they were sure the Hawks would match.

None of the other RFAs (Okafor, Deng, Iggy, Gordon, Beidrins) have gotten any offers from other teams either.

TheDude · July 17, 2008

why does everyone think this is just a Josh Smith issue? you have players like Okafor and others who are in the same position....it's all about the fact that other teams KNOW we will match and they don't want to waste their 7 days waiting for nothing.

AnakinJoe · July 17, 2008

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None of the other RFAs (Okafor, Deng, Iggy, Gordon, Beidrins) have gotten any offers from other teams either.

I'm predicitng that Philly will sign Iggy first because Chicago, Charlotte, Golden State and Atlanta are notorious at being either slow and/or cheap. But I think once someone (Philly) breaks the ice with the elite RFAs, then other contracts will quickly fall into place.

Plus (and this is not a hatin' comment), all of the GMs must do their due diligence and consider possible S & T alternatives. We just saw a recent DPOY get traded for virtually nothing. If the Clips' GM had thought "no one would ever trade a recent DPOY for nothing" then that trade would never have occurred. So you HAVE to poke around and see if you can create a Gasol/Camby type lop-sided trade involving your RFA. And you have to test those scenarios before locking down the RFA's agents in serious negotiations.

exodus · July 17, 2008

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So you HAVE to poke around and see if you can create a Gasol/Camby type lop-sided trade involving your RFA.

Camby and Gasol were traded for cap space. Anyone trading for Smith will be taking on at least $10 million in salary in the 1st year. Those type of deals aren't possible with Smith.

AnakinJoe · July 17, 2008

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So you HAVE to poke around and see if you can create a Gasol/Camby type lop-sided trade involving your RFA.

Camby and Gasol were traded for cap space. Anyone trading for Smith will be taking on at least $10 million in salary in the 1st year. Those type of deals aren't possible with Smith.

No, not of that magnitude. The point is, unless you take the time to evaluate options, you may not find a blockbuster trade involving an RFA.

BusBoyIsBack · July 17, 2008

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Be careful...the Smith "nut-huggers" are going to call you a Smith hater b/c you don't want to throw him a "fair" $70-$75 mill contract to sign him ASAP.......LOL

I agree with you though. The Hawks have him right where they want him. I hope a deal gets done.

Not because of any FO competence. Only because we lucked up with Brand not re-signing with Clippers, otherwise he would have probably gone to Philly.

It's not about being a lover/hater of Smoove, it's about the Hawks and clearly we have a much better chance of being a contending teamnow and in the future with Josh Smith as opposed to without him.

The fact that we may have to overpay him a couple million dollars a year shouldn't hinder that. What the hell would we be saving that money for?

Being cheap and losing him would make this team far less of a competitor now and in the future than overpaying him a little bit for a contract that he has the potential to live up to anyway.

Atlantaholic · July 18, 2008

Quote:

Be careful...the Smith "nut-huggers" are going to call you a Smith hater b/c you don't want to throw him a "fair" $70-$75 mill contract to sign him ASAP.......LOL

I agree with you though. The Hawks have him right where they want him. I hope a deal gets done.

Not because of any FO competence. Only because we lucked up with Brand not re-signing with Clippers, otherwise he would have probably gone to Philly.

It's not about being a lover/hater of Smoove, it's about the Hawks and clearly we have a much better chance of being a contending teamnow and in the future with Josh Smith as opposed to without him.

The fact that we may have to overpay him a couple million dollars a year shouldn't hinder that. What the hell would we be saving that money for?

Being cheap and losing him would make this team far less of a competitor now and in the future than overpaying him a little bit for a contract that he has the potential to live up to anyway.

I seriously can not wrap my head around why people would rather loose Smith than Pay him a huge contract... What the heck else would ASG do with the money? Who could we sign in the near future who is a better prospect than Smoove? What Mega Super Star Free Agent could we throw money at that would want to come to Atlanta?

If we do a SNT how likely is it we will get a player YOUNGER and BETTER than Smoove?

I think everyone could agree that in order to become a great team we need at least one more superstar... Out of everyone in our team, and in the league, Josh Smith is by far our best chance at getting one.

I mean let's look at the most likely Worst case / Best case scenarios

Worst case: We overpay Josh Smith and he continues to average 18 ppg 8 rpg and 3 Bpg

Best case: Josh Smith becomes the next KG.

What other ways can we spend those 10-14 million dollars a year that projects better than this?

I mean, even with all of his faults Josh Smith IS one of the best Pf TODAY... It is seriously not even a huge gamble... Loosing someone of his potential, considering our embarrassing history of futility and the perceptions around the NBA concerning our ownership, would be a freaking disaster

exodus · July 18, 2008

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The point is, unless you take the time to evaluate options, you may not find a blockbuster trade involving an RFA.

Try naming 3 "blockbuster" trades involving RFAs that have happened over the last 5 years.

AtLaS · July 18, 2008